Starts of the Week + Week 4 Games, Cat Fight! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/1

He ranked second among all running backs in Rush Success Rate and first in those plays reaching 15 miles an hour, more than Gibbs. He's very explosive, so I think the matchup is okay, and I can't fathom benching Bayshalt-Tooten. And I'm going from the waiver wire right into your starting lineup. We got Braylon Allen. It's a one week as of right now. We've seen one game with Braylon without Breece, and it was 16 opportunities. They included five targets and 81 total yards.

And it's the matchup. It is juicy Chicago 29th and EPA per rush aloud. So this is, and I expect a heavy, heavy dose of the run game. As opposed, like, Gino was awesome last week. I think that this week with the Jets against Chicago, they're going to be on the ground. Aaron Jones against Miami is my pick this week. Jordan Mason on injured reserve. Okay. Yeah, and I'll take the old man voice for Aaron Jones.

Look, he's been a high-end RB2 since the move of Jordan Mason to IR. The last two weeks, since the Jefferson administration. 80% of snaps, 50% of the total rush attempts in targets. Miami's 30th against running backs. It's a 10.5 point favorite Minnesota team that should be running the ball all day. Yep. Yep.

You screwed it up because you were like, I'm going first. And I'm going with the position we don't normally start with. I'm going to go with. You mess yourself up. A Nolan's stack. I'm going to keep starting Juan Johnson every week right now. He's been fantastic against the Falcons. He's the tight in four through three weeks, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per week.

He's very involved. He's tied with Trey McBride for the league lead in in zone targets. Second most red zone targets. I mean, it's perfect. And Atlanta's 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight in. So, you know, this was one of our, you know, most targeted, like late round guys, week one pick up. Right now it looks like he's a weekly start. Maybe that changes when Jordan Tyson, you know, gets off of IR, which could be as soon as this week. But he's on IR right now or as soon as next week. So, yeah, keep.

Starting Joanne Johnson. And I'm going with Tyler Warren. Josh Downs is a great play, but I think Tyler Warren is as well. We're going to attack Washington throughout the entirety of the season. And, you know, even though week one felt not great, he is the only tight ends with eight and a half fantasy points in each of the three weeks. McBride, Kelsey, Jawanson, and Tyler Warren. It's been it's been quietly okay.

And Washington is 31st and scheduled just to points to the position. You'll be playing tight ends against them all year. All right. I'm going with. Oh. Okay. We got to get that jersey updated. Darren Waller against Detroit on Sunday night. Annual update of Darren Waller's jersey. That's right. I mean, he can probably just do like a huge change on that.

I think that's what we did last day. To get it from Miami to the Carolina blue, I think we can pull that off. The snap shares, they're going up. Yeah, I mean, Darren Waller, Detroit, we talked about it, Sunday night game, high over under, Jalen Coker could be out. You know, the snaps were up at 51% last week. Red zone target. Lions have been bleeding points to the tight end position. Listen to this. Saints tight ends, two of them in week one. Bill's tight ends, two of them in week two. Touchdowns.

Jets tight ends, two touchdowns last week. Yeah, delightful. Two a week? I'm having a real problem here because I think the breakout is coming for Tucker Kraft at some point. It is. But I'm sitting here staring down Darren Waller versus Tucker Craft this week and having a harder time by the minute deciding about what I want to do with that decision. So I think Waller is going to be. Especially if you know Detroit's putting points up. If Coker is out. Yeah. I don't know how you wouldn't.

play the walrus there. I know. Plus, I feel like if I did that and binge Tucker Kraft, I could force the breakout because it would definitely happen. I would be under my control. But there you go. That was starts of the week, brought to you by Applecard, applying the wallet app on your iPhone today. Subject to credit approval, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank, USA, Salt Lake City branch terms, and more at applecard.com. We're taking a break, and then we'll jump into the forecast. Let's do it.

Fantasy Forecast, presented by prize picks. All right, we have a London game, guys. You ready to get up at 630? You want to watch a little early football, Mike? Boom. Not really. Yeah, the Colts at 1 and 2 take on the commanders. Even less now. One and two. There's going to be fantasy goodness in this one. Yeah, Indy minus 3.5 over under 47.5. That's a nice number, not bad. And a couple teams that, I don't know. I don't know about either one of them.

To be honest, you know, you said through three weeks we get an idea of who these teams are. I mean, what are your thoughts? I mean, Daniel Jones so far, I don't know that I've been in love with what I've seen so far from Daniel Jones. No, so far Daniel Jones is looking. It was Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, so you can say that's a gauntlet. I wouldn't, I don't think he's looked terrible, but it's not unlike when he had a great year for the Giants and got the extension.

And then he turned into a pumpkin. And then he was playing great last year. I mean, and Achilles injury is not a joke. No. He has a mobile quarterback that was one of his superpowers. Nine fantasy points, 11 fantasy points, and seven. Considering we have two Colts receivers that are starts of the week, you know, pass catchers in Warren and Downs, the fact that Daniel Jones can't surpass 12 fantasy points, not helpful. So I hope he can get it done. The matchup is great.

I just think these are two teams that I've been, like I expected the Colts to look a little better than they have, and I expected the commanders, honestly, to look worse than they have. And here we are. So Mario daisy last week, it was awesome, 20 fantasy points, threw for three touchdowns. Can definitely stream him? Yeah, I think this week you can. Jonathan Taylor, of course, you're playing him. And we've talked about Dan's and Warren, so flipping to the other side. Well, I know, you can play Keenan, too. Can you? Yes. He's going to. But do you want to? Not necessarily, but.

Yeah, he had nine targets last week. I think Mike's right. You can... Again. Yeah, and he scored last week. We like the other guys more, I'm just saying. Like, if you're in a 14-teamer, then Keen-Nallon feels like about a good of a flex start as you'll get. On the running back room for the commanders, Jacori Kraski-Marit last week, if you watched the game, so he had 19 attempts on the ground that equated to...

36 yards. That's 1.9 a carry. That part was bad. The part that was good is he had a 50-plus yard touchdown run, called back on an irrelevant illegal formation that had nothing to do with the play. So he did make a big play that didn't count. He was almost my start of the week. I was between Bachel Tutin and Gagori Kroski Berr. And Bill? Yeah, and Bill? I don't have it anymore. Oh, you don't have it. Come on. But yeah, I mean, he's getting the opportunity.

There, that's fine. Yeah. But 20 opportunities last week, and that was against Seattle. Seattle's a very difficult team to run the ball on, and so you don't expect them to be great. It's not like there are other options were great, and Bill was bad. Now you have Rashad White. I don't know if he's going to play this week. They go out and sign.

Austin Echler, which leads me to believe maybe Rashad White's shoulder is more serious. I think Bill gets a lot of work in this game and against the Colts. You're fine. I mean, that's a great match. I agree. Bounce back week for McClorin last week. I almost did it two weeks ago when Jason made him a start of the week. He just had a couple of almost touchdowns. Last week he got into the end zone, had nine more targets. The last two weeks have been great with the target share and six catches 77 yards.

I'd certainly prefer him over like Diggs or anybody else in that passing offense. The hard part for Diggs is this is actually very juicy in terms of because he's playing the slot. You know what I'm almost 60% of the time and the Colts are, to my numbers, the second most vulnerable team against the slot wide receiver. But the Marioda factor makes it more difficult to trust. But Diggs should be great than this matchup. Yeah, we haven't seen the.

you know, the snap count rise to a level where we'd be, you know, all about Antonio Williams. So I think that's kind of cooled off. Yeah, he feels like an injury or next year, injury away or a next year play. The New England Patriots back in the United States here, they're one and two. They take on the three and no Buffalo bills. So you've had a hard start. Head to Buffalo.

Good luck with that. The highest implied point total on the week is the Buffalo 27.5. This game is Buffalo minus six and a half, over under 48 and a half. I think the most difficult thing to get your confidence back is to travel to your division rivals home field and face Josh Allen, who is going to put points up. It's going to put you in a position to do everything that, like if I wanted to help Drake May, I'd want to run the football.

and be efficient and then play good defense and then let them win the game by not having to do everything. And this is a game where at some point it's likely Drake May has to try to put the team on his shoulders and do more. It's just a shaky situation. Andy, how do you feel about the 21 points implied for the Patriots? Feels high. Can they get to 21? Well, I think this is just all based on how atrocious the bill's defense has been. I mean, the bills last week.

They did win the game. But, I mean, on the year, 24th against running back or quarterbacks, 29th against running backs, 28th against whiteouts, I am a little surprised at that. But, you know, I think part of the problem is when we're like, like, just tell me the story of the Patriots scoring points. That's what I mean. You don't know who any main characters are in this book. Like, there are none. Trayvion Henderson rips off a long touchdown. The end? It's somewhere. The end of the story? Yes. Oh, that's the story. That's the only thing.

Three times to get to 21 points? Oh, man. I don't know. Is there a pass interference penalty near the end zone that Ramandre can take advantage of? It really does feel difficult to see them scoring. They've just been an in inept offense. How do we not have like a 10 target game for an Omio Dobbs who you paid all this money to? We haven't had that at all. It's weird. You've got Matt Hollins leading the team in Target share. You've got a tandem of running backs that each makes the other irrelevant, sort of. If I had to start one, I'd still start Remondre.

I have them back to back in my rankings. But I mean, I don't care if you want to go the other way. Yeah, and I think it's really a matter of like if you're the underdog going to matchup. Who would you score six points for you? If you're the underdog in a matchup, throw Trayvion and Henderson out there for the idea that he gets a big blowup game. The more likely leader in fantasy points is Ramandre, but probably without a very high ceiling. So I don't love playing either. The matchup is great. The over and under is good. Do you start a Patriot?

I think in most leagues you're going to have Ramandre or Trevion Henderson on rosters where you're going to start them, yes. It's not like they are shoe in top 15 running backs by any means. But in today's NFL, you're probably needing to start them. Josh Allen James? Oh, here's a good question. Patriots running back or Ollie Gordon? I mean, I play Ollie Gordon. I would play for the chance that's something like 20 carries. I mean, we don't know if Jalen Wright's going to play this week for Miami.

So there's just no world I wouldn't try Gordon. I would go with the Patriots. Which one? Both of them? Yeah. Yeah, well, you guys are like, I've picked up on that. I mean, we talk about like how are the Patriots going to score 20 points, but against Minnesota. Yeah. How are the Dolphins going to score three? Yeah. Okay. Strong point. I kind of put the Minnesota part out of my mind for a second and was just focusing on workload. But yeah, I was going to accuse you guys to be an anti-Aali, but I think you're pro Vikings. That is correct.

James Cook and Allen, of course, you play them, Dalton Kincaid, get him back out there, see if we, it will be a bit of a, like, you want to preview a potential storyline for next week? A disappointing Kincaid game will put you in the position of saying same old, same old, or, you know, I feel like it's an important one. This is a very tough matchup. I mean, the.

New England against tight ends is... Number one. Yeah, they're number one. They don't give up a lot of points against tight ends, four point five points per game on average. Which they've played... I mean, they've played some tough teams, right? I mean, they are like some tough tight ends. They stopped Kelsey, right? That was one of their games? Am I misremembering their schedule? Baltimore? Yeah, you are a misremember. You had Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. Yeah, I think I was a matchup before. So they...

Those are not any big tight ends that they faced. The prize picks projection for Dalton Kincaid's at 53 and a half receiving yards. That's not bad. That's only ahead of him is Bowers McBride Kelsey. Because he's a big play guy. Yeah, the projections are still there. I'm still playing Dalton Kincaid with confidence, even if... Would you play Waller or Kincaid? Oh, if you have the decision. Oh, my gosh. It coax. That's such a firestorm of a perfect situation for Darren Waller.