The TRUTH: Second Tier QBs in 2019 - Fantasy Football Podcast

really struggling for fantasy. I'm not, I know we're talking about the same argument of Carson Wentz versus Matt Ryan, but the message to me here is that lots of crap happens during the fantasy season. Yes. That's what I'm learning. There's, there's a reason a guy didn't perform for everybody. Yeah, he didn't have sinew. He didn't have Hooper for a large stretch of his worst period of time. It was, it was his highest interception count since 2015. And I took a look back because.

Matt Ryan is so strange with his touchdowns where he's always been a yardage king. But so since 2011, quarterbacks who are in that 4,400 yard range, they've averaged 31 and a half touchdowns. Matt Ryan was at 26. I mean, it's to go from 26, if he had hit that 31 touchdown marked that those, that quarterbacks in that yard range average, this is a much different fantasy season we're talking about for Matt Ryan.

But he's Matt Ryan, who is just apparently flukeish and very random with when he wants to have massive touchdown years and when he doesn't. Well, keep in mind, he's a yo-yo career player. Oh, yes. Every other year. You talk about ping pong analytics? I'm talking about ping pong analytics. Hard hitting. Give it to us. Every other year he's a, you know, a top five quarterback. And then the next year he's not in the top 10. And look, he wasn't in the top 10 this year. So next year?

Top five. Here we go. QB 15, QB7, QB19, QB2. QB 15, QB2. Oh, QB11. Oh, QB2. Maybe. We'll see. We'll see what happens. But here's the question, though, for Matt Ryan. Next year, end of season, Matt Ryan is the QB2. Are you shocked in the slightest? Nope. Because I would not. I would be shocked only.

because I expect it to be my homes and Lamar. So if you say, okay, so three. Back to it. I'll make it easy. Top five. Sure. He's back to a top five. I wouldn't be surprised. No, he's done it several times. All right. Let's bounce around to some names that we think will be relevant for next year, some players that we need to bring them out into the light. Sure. The light of truth. Jared Gauff. Let's talk about Jared Goff. I want to talk about Go for it, Mike. Number 13 is where he finished fantasy-wise, 11 for consistency.

So Jared Goff saw just an absolute horrific regression. I mean, we talked about the Rams, how they, just as an offense, I highlighted how their point total drop by over 100 points compared to last year. And he saw his attempts rise from 561 to 626. He led the league in passing attempts. And this is kind of the anecdote of.

Volume doesn't necessarily mean top end fantasy production. You'd rather have an efficient quarterback than one who's just going to get volume. So he leads the league in passing attempts. Through for 50 fewer yards than last year. Through for 10 fewer touchdowns than last year, despite an increase of 60 pass attempts. The one silver lining where you have to ask, did they figure it out?

So before Tyler Higbee broke out, Jared Gough was averaging 23 completions for 272 yards in a touchdown per game. That's horrifically bad for fantasy. After the breakout, he averaged 29 completions, 329 yards, and 2.2 touchdowns. That's a 5,000-yard 35 touchdown pace. It's only five games. I'm extrapolating in a really, really small sample. But the point is, Higby...

was an absolute monster. You couldn't stop him for the final five games. No, you couldn't, but that illustrates that for consecutive years, you've had a situation. Yes, we saw it in the Super Bowl last year with Jared Goff. Sure. But the machine, the template, the guarantee production that you had from the Rams last year, there have been multiple times now where they've been knocked off of kilter. You've had a situation here where...

Jared Goff wasn't the same quarterback on the road at all this year. I'm sorry, against top defenses. If he was playing a top defense, he couldn't overcome it. Brandon Cooks just smoke-bombed and vanished. I think part of the good, you know, if he's playing a good defense, part of the problem is a good defense has...

You know, a good defensive line, and their offensive line was such a problem that they could maybe overcome that when they were playing inferior competition. I fully expect the Rams to focus in, like this offseason, their focus has to be the offensive line. They know what their problem is. It's at least nice. So that's what I'm going to be looking for. I'm going to be seeing.

You know, okay, did they spend a third round pick on an offensive line? Did they even have a third round pick? Yeah, I think they've got like two picks of the next 17 years. 21 turnovers. 22 touchdowns, 21 turnovers. That was Jared Goff's year. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it wasn't great. The Rams year wasn't great. Gurley's year wasn't great. But I think the entirety of it falls on the shoulder of the offensive line. And so if they are able to go out and sign Bologga.

You know, or something makes some kind of... He's not a draftable quarterback to me next year. Most likely. And that's fine. Most likely. Because unlike Russell, who's had plenty of line problems over his career, he cannot... Jared Goff showed me this year. He cannot make something out of nothing. Do you want to wear cement shoes? That part... That's part of his training. It didn't help him.

to do that you want to know who is very much draftable next year and i think is joe nameth and joe name it and when you grab joe nameth you start joe name is that that was the one thing i contributed hit us with philip rivers jason no how dare you quarterback 22 on the season consistency rank number two

Ryan Tannahill, who came in and was a revelation with this offense. I was statting out things for the ultimate draft kit 2020, and I just looked at the incredible disparity between Marcus Marriota and Ryan Tannahill. You're talking about 11% greater accurate, you know, 11% of your throws now are completions instead of incompletions because he can get the ball to guys, you know, hit him at the right spot.

This is under the assumption that Derek Henry is back, and that's obviously not a guarantee. He's a free agent. Maybe he goes in division to the Texans. But if Derek Henry is back, this is a team that, you know, you can't say, you know, we're taking Tan Hill out of the game. You know, we're going to let Derek Henry beat us because he'll beat you. And with the weapons of A.J. Brown getting better, Corey Davis, not having to be the man.

I like Tanahill a lot. Yeah, I was going to ask the question, what does that really mean? Because obviously, you know, the 22, finishing 22 on the year, that doesn't matter because he didn't play the whole season. And then the consistency rank of number two, well, that kind of doesn't matter because you're not drafting him over Mahomes, Lamar Jackson. You're not drafting him over Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson. But he won't be anywhere near. I don't believe for a second that Ryan Tanahill will be a highly drafted quarterback. I think that.

Other names, 10, 11, 12 names next year will be drafted ahead of him. I could see Baker Mayfield again going ahead of Ryan Tannahill. And if you're in one of those drafts where you're grabbing him as the 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th quarterback off the board, I'm all about that because he was both consistent and gave you good upside. Mike, did he give you enough games for you to feel the same way? I've just so concerned. And this is not, I'm not using analytics to,

for anything to back this up, but was that just a magical thing that happened for Ryan Tannenhill? It happens. Like Carson Wentz had a season that was pure magic. Oh, we've seen it four times with Ryan Fitzpatrick where he comes into the next year. You think, oh, it's the Decker Brandon Marshall year. We were on fire. We're going to the playoffs. The next year it starts up. Ryan Fitzpatrick was not a fantasy option. Derek Carr, a quarterback who I think is very, very.

average to below average. He had a year where he was in line to be in the MVP votes. I mean, these things just, it happens. It's professional sports. It's football. Things bounce the right way in your favor. The stat they talked about, I believe in the Kansas City playoff game against the Titans, where it was the field goal kicker. He hasn't had to make a kick in like 50 calendar days because

They just kept getting it done in the red zone. And that is, that's not, that's not happening. Right. For over the course of a full year. So Ryan, can Ryan Tanikil be anywhere close to that, the quarterback that he was over the course of a season? And I think these are the types of thoughts and phrases that will.

ensure he is not a highly drafted quarterback next year. I will not believe, so you're right. And so if he is in the double-digit rounds, I want a guy who at least we've seen a stretch with this team where he was special. Six games in his limited time, he was a top six quarterback. You know, his floor was still pretty high because he runs the ball as well. So I will be in if he's, you know, in those double-digit rounds where I still expect him to be. All right. Let's not forget about Matthew Stafford.

Oh my goodness. He was so good. His fantasy finish, you know, betrays any truth about him because he only played eight games this year. But his consistency rank was number eight in those games that he played, despite being drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board. He looked great on film. 63% of the time put up a good fantasy week. It's, judging Matthew Stafford's season is impossible because he had monster games.

But they were against Arizona, Kansas City, when they were bad at the beginning of the year. If you remember, Kansas City's defense was horrifically bad, and they got it together. Minnesota, whose secondary was absolute trash, the Giants, and Oakland. That's who Stafford beat up. Now, that's all he could do, but you didn't get to see big performances against other teams. And he had poor performances against teams.

whose defenses were playing well at the time. So honestly, I have, I have no idea what to think about Stafford from last year. But it is fun to check out what his 16-game pace was. Let's have it. Because it was 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. I think he's got, there's nothing wrong looking at that pace. He's got Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay. They're going to combine for.

15 plus touchdowns, just those two guys. I think second year, I mean, you know, we all got fooled by the week one, T.J. Hawkinson, but tight ends don't, you know, we've talked about this forever. Tight ends don't have good rookie years. That's just not a normal thing. A year two, Hawkinson with elite wide receivers on the outside, I don't see why Stafford, you know, he should be fantastic. I mean, he's not going to be drafted. I mean, he's going to be somebody you can pick up. Right. Oh, he'll be drafted by me.

I'll get them in the last round. But what we're saying, in home leagues, people aren't going to be looking to draft, Matt Stafford. I want to talk about, the last quarterback, I think. I got two names. Okay, the one. Maybe three if you have a different one. One that I want to highlight. I want to talk about Drew Brees. Okay, that was one of them. Absolutely dominated when he came back from his injury. This was a Drew Brees that we aren't used to seeing in any kind of recent history. Like, for those who've been playing fantasy football for any length of time, you know that Drew Brees.

was the man. I mean, he was a 5,000 yard on the ridge, which is close to impossible to hit that mark, and he was a stud. But then the last few years, things have really, really tailored off. But this past year, he only played 11 games, but he hit the highest touchdown percentage of his career. Over the last three years, he's been hovering right around 5.4%, which is still respectable, but his volume had dropped down. And then he jumps up to seeing the 7 percentile mark.

Jared Kuk. Jared Kuk was a huge part of it. Career high in touchdowns, pro bowler this year, Michael Thomas having a career year. But do we just have, do we have the inverse Aaron Rogers here where we saw Alvin Kamara's touchdowns be freakishly high two years ago that come back down to a normal human rate?

And then we see Drew Breeze have a very high touchdown percent. And the opposite for Aaron Rogers and Aaron Jones. Well, you need the numbers. 21 is where Drew Bree is finished. Doesn't matter. Missed half the season. But his consistency was number six. So just to bring that into a frame of mind. And that number six is including week two when he scored negative fantasy points. Right. Because, you know, he had a, I think he threw a pick or something and then got injured. So.