The TRUTH: Second Tier QBs in 2019 - Fantasy Football Podcast

projecting it next year. So he was at the 8.6 touchdown percent. That's impossibly high. We've seen when players are essentially over seven, historically, their touchdown percent drops by about two percentage points, which is massive. And that happened. He dropped down to 5.4. Now, a 5.4 touchdown percent, so every 5.4 percent of his attempts turn into a touchdown, I think that actually might be a little bit low.

for who Patrick Mahomes is as a person and as a quarterback. So that could go up. If he's back in the high 30s, maybe even flirting with throwing 40 touchdowns, that won't surprise me next year. But that's still, if you're drafting that guy in the fourth round, once again, you're saying, you have to do this because I could draft someone late and easily replace most of your value. You said the over-under was in the fourth round. And if he's in the fourth round, I will probably draft him.

Really? Really? Look at you. You know, the one thing that hasn't been brought up to is that, yes, there was the injury, so you lost like the back half of the Denver game and he was out for two weeks. But you also lost mobility, something that he does bring to the table, and we've seen it in recent weeks. We've seen it in the playoffs, becoming more comfortable with the knee. We didn't know if his season was going to be over in week seven. He came back, but he looked like it was. You know, he only ran for 218 yards this year. For him, he's the kind of guy that can get into the 3-400s.

and make those things happen. More rushing touchdowns, a possibility next year as well. So it's interesting to hear Jason say that, that he would take him in that range. And here's the nice thing. What about third round? No. Fourth round is when you'll get the sweat. There's a break in talent of the wide receivers and running backs between the third and fourth where I'm willing to take the gamble on that special season. Exactly. Yeah, makes sense. Number eight, Kyler Murray.

actually ended the season at number eight at the quarterback position. Consistency rank was 17. Hello, rookie. Yeah. He was drafted as the quarterback 11. His average draft position shot up heading into fantasy drafts in August. But this was almost, I mean, this was almost a guarantee. Like projecting Kyla Murray's season might not have seemed like an easy thing to do, but it really wasn't hard to do. When you take the aspect of the rushing yardage,

You know, he's over 500 yards, and that was probably going to happen. I mean, I don't think anybody really doubted that element of his game. If you mix that with just being the starting quarterback in Arizona, I mean, he only threw 20 touchdowns. He threw for fewer than 4,000 yards. But when you mix in the rushing totals, you're going to end up as the top 10. It's happened time and time again with these rushing quarterbacks. And...

or Russian capable quarterback. So Kyle Murray, 44% of the time good games, 25% great, a big 38% bust percentage. And you kind of, you just didn't know when he was going to show up because he had some really good games against San Francisco twice. Yeah. And then he had these stinkers in games you thought he would do well in New York, facing the Giants, ends up the 26th quarterback on the week. I mean, not what you expected him to do in that game.

I certainly think a lot of it was the fact that, I mean, he's a rookie, and he showed that from time to time. There's also, you know, that quintessential rookie wall of did things get harder at the end of the season? Because when you look at, they had a very late by week. It was week 12 when their by week came. Up until that point, he was consistency ranked number seven. So he's actually pretty consistent for a quarterback. He was the QB5 through week 11. Exactly.

Then after that buy from weeks 13 through 17, those five games, he wasn't, I mean, he wasn't even in the top 15 quarterbacks one time through that stretch. So the end of the season was really bad for him. That skews how we look at him. And you have to ask, is this people had more tape and they were able to scheme him out? Was this a, you know, the rookie wall? But the fact that he's a rookie and has the ability to improve and has the rushing baseline.

I am more inclined to believe that the first 11 weeks of the season is closer to what the consistency will be going forward than the end of the season. The historical pedigree of what he was able to accomplish this year, he's in fantastic company. There's only six quarterbacks that have thrown over 3,500 yards and rushed for over 500 yards in a season. That's Cam Newton. Twice? Three times. Wow. Yeah, Cam Newton, Randall Cunningham, Dante Colpepper.

Russ Wilson, Deshawn Watson, and now Kyler Murray. Bight. Yes, voice of public opinion. You didn't say Lamar Jackson. Because he didn't pass for, he didn't hit my passing yard threshold. Yeah, okay. In his rookie season? Yeah. No, ever. Oh, ever. Yeah. Just those seasons at all. Correct. You know, no, you got me double.

No, you're right. The passing threshold was the issue. Mark Jackson was at 3,100 yards. Right. So I knew people would point that out. So it's, he's with elite company and his touchdown rate, which we just referenced for Patrick Mahomes, he was at 3.7%. Quarterbacks who had over 300 attempts, the average, 4.7.

His touchdown rate is impossibly low. The only quarterbacks with 300 attempts that had a lower touchdown rate, Jared Goff, Kyle Allen, Mitch Trubisky, and Andy Dalton. Well, that was the comedy out here in Arizona for the beginning of the year. They couldn't figure the red zone out with Cliff Kingsbury. But again, you're looking at that, you know, a rookie quarterback in an offense that can, you know, nobody knows Kyler Murray better than Cliff Kingsbury pretty much and how to use him.

You didn't have the kind of weapons. You lost Christian Kirk for part of the year. David Johnson became an afterthought. Other wide receiving options, let me read some names. Demer Burt. Farrow Cooper. Yeah. You know, these are the types of players he was throwing to on a regular basis. 74-year-old, Larry Fitzgerald, who I love. They should have drafted a wide receiver in the second round. Named Andy Isabella and then not played him. Yeah, that'd be good. But the future is bright for Kyla Murray.

without question, especially with the rushing baseline numbers. And so he'll be a top 10 guy next year, no doubt. Yeah, the question will be his ADP. Because I really think across the fantasy industry, rightly so, because I think all three of us are going to be really interested in what Kyler Murray can do next year. Especially if they make a splash. If the Cardinals draft a high profile wide receiver, a CD Lamb, all of a sudden the...

The talk will be, I mean, look at the leap that Lamar made passing-wise. Right. In year two, just adding some weapons, you know, maturing Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, that type of thing. Before we move to the next quarterback, part of the truth. Want to thank today's sponsor? Manscaped. You still have some more truth for us. I do. Yeah, right there. What, the truth about Manscaped? Mm-hmm. The truth about Manscape, look, you've heard us talking for the entire season.

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Now, the last time we talked about this player, you know, it wasn't always in the best light at the end of the season because sometimes our advice, we have to stick to the truth, right? Right, right. Play-play cut. We're talking about Aaron Rogers, and it came true. Play-play cut came true, and it was a vulnerable decision. But Aaron Rogers was not the kind of player. I mean, listen to this. Number nine is already finished. That's even...

hard to comprehend from where we've been with Aaron Rogers. Yeah, he was always one or two. But listen, consistency ranking of 25. There were 40 quarterbacks that finished with at least one top 12 week. There are 32 NFL teams. Aaron Rogers was number 25 when it came to consistency for fantasy. He busted 63% of the time when you played him. What? He was good, 38% of the time.

He scored almost 10 fewer fantasy points against top defenses. The recipe for the, and I got Aaron Rogers sitting right in front of me here on the table. We love Aaron. I'm really sorry, Aaron. I feel like I'm saying mean things. He's my best friend. But the fact of the matter is, is you must learn to accept new realities in fantasy football.

Otherwise, you're going to get buried with old ones. This was not for no reason. This isn't just Aaron Rogers got old. If you look at the passing and rushing volumes of Mike McCarthy versus the new regime that came in, they wanted to run the ball more. They did. Think about how many touchdowns Aaron Jones got an outlandish number.

Those, you know, when he runs the ball in for a touchdown, Aaron Rogers doesn't get to throw the ball. Aaron Rogers was always one of those guys where when you got down near the five and inside the 10, they threw at a higher pace than the rest of the league. I have those numbers, Jason. Hym. So why I was home. Hymum. Hib. Hibum. Y'all. Give them to me good. White Earp, I got you covered. Why I was interested in Rogers coming into this year.

were two years ago. Perfect. Two years ago, there was this weird plummet in Aaron Rogers' red zone attempts. And I thought, that's really bizarre because, Jay, you were right. When they would get inside the 20, you had Aaron Rogers. And you had a running game that was always ho-hum. Sometimes you had some good players in Green Bay, but Aaron Rogers is lethal in the red zone. He saw those numbers drop drastically.

in 2018. Then 2019, you saw that volume actually returned to a level where we're used to it with Aaron Rogers. I'm talking 61 attempts two years ago, back up to 78 attempts this last year. You know how many touchdowns he threw, though? 16 in both of those years. 16 touchdowns inside the red zone, despite a massive upgrade in terms of volume throwing inside the 20. Quarterbacks with more red zone attempts than Aaron Rogers.

Two. Quarterbacks with more red zone touchdowns than Aaron Rogers eight. And is this, what I don't know the answer to is, is this a product of this particular offense? Is it Aaron Rogers? Or was it simply just, you had Devante Adams as the only reliable pass catching threat on the team. Devante Adams is an elite red zone weapon, but did they just need someone else who could?