AFC East Breakdown + Scariest Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/13

I have come around. I like the bet on James Cook. But Dalton Kincaid is, it's tough because, yes, the natural progression of the player, first round pick. He's a tight end. It takes some time. His season for a rookie tight end was actually fantastic. It's just being overshadowed by Sam Leporta. But it's still hard to shake what happened. As soon as his production really came when Dawson Knox was off the field, you were like, Yeah, here we go, baby. Dalton Kincaid, we knew it all along. We've waited for it. Eight targets a game from week seven to ten. And then, you know, a couple weeks later, got offensive shift, and Dawson Knox comes back, and then the numbers go back down. Well, it shows you that because players, tight ends, it's a process to get to the 80, 90% of snaps. It's a natural process. But then with Knox going out, it just forced it for a while. You saw how the production would be.

with that kind of a workload, and then it went back. So I would imagine we'd all have come into this year saying the snaps are going up. I think he has just as much potential to be in the Trey McBride conversation as McBride does. I mean, it's a huge opportunity. Yeah, Josh Allen's a better quarterback than Kyler Murray. And, you know, Trey McBride can't be the number one target for Kyler. You just can't, Marvin Harrison's going to be the number one target. Right now you're saying Kincaid's the guy. I'm saying don't he can be, yeah. should or could be the number one target for Josh Allen and the bills. So I'm completely in on him and he doesn't cost as much as trying to chase Laporta's double-digit rookie touchdowns. And then going back to James Cook, this is the running back 11 last season, who's being drafted as the running back 14, has way more opportunity. They relied on him more when this coordinator shift happened. And he only had two touchdowns last year. There's no competition. He had two touchdowns. So it's like.

That's the problem with him. That's the problem with him, absolutely. But there's no way he plays 17 and doesn't get at least two, right? He had the... Yeah, you're saying that's the floor of the touchdown world and he's still finished where he finished. Yeah, he was only behind McCaffrey and Brees Hall and yards from scrimmage. He's a good back. Yep. He's a little back. He is. But he's great. And I think we want to see it re-rolled. Arizona, Miami, Jacksonville, Baltimore to start the year. Oh. By the way, Kean Coleman, one pick ahead of Ladd-McConkey, Mr. Consolation Price. How do you feel about that? Teams make bad picks all the time. But hold on, hold on. Arizona, Miami Jacksonville. That's the first three weeks. Not too shabby. That's... In Miami. Yeah, Miami defense should be, okay? They should be, but I feel like you're forced. I'd be taking Miami in that game. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about an offense that would put up points against the bills.

Oh, you're liking the beginning for this team. I'm liking for fantasy. I'll take that. Miami was 11 and 6 as well. We'll move on and talk about them. They had a projected win total of nine and a half last year. They're nine and a half this year. So far we're re-rolling that Vegas is re-rolling this division. They played just six games last year against teams with a winning record. How they do. They were one in five. And that became a storyline that we were watching for fantasy. Their only one was that win in Week 16 against Dallas. It's not great, Bob. I feel like we are doing the same routine with Miami every year right now. Because we've had two exceptionally prolific starts of the year, especially for Tua, where he looked like a great fantasy pick, and then things slow down at times for Miami. But...

You know, where are you at them? Number one in points per game. You know the office is going to work with McDaniels. They added O'Dell Beckham. They didn't lose anybody of significance over the offseason. You're re-rolling it. You get Waddleback healthier than he was last year. I will be honest. My job is in football, and I frequently forget that O'Dell Beckham signed to the Miami Dolphins. I knew he signed, and I still dropped him in Dynasty. I think this time. next year. We will say, do you guys remember Odell was on the dolphins last year? That's how it feels. But the big pieces, like some offenses with predictability, you love it when it's like Miami. Yeah. Yes. You know, where you have, you know, Tyreek and Waddle. You're done. You're done talking about receiving options, right? Yes, you are. I will, I think Malik Washington's name just needs to be thrown out there. He's a lower drafted wide receiver rookie coming in, but they, they, they.

got two of those guys this year in the draft. They drafted Jalen Wright, a speedster that fits this system. Running back. Running back. A little bit later in the draft. He was a day three pick. And Malik Washington. Those are two, sometimes pieces fit a team very well, like A-chan last year. And I think those two guys do fit the mold. So it's just worth noting, keeping your eye on maybe. If you're in a deeper league, last pick or something like that. I am in agreement. Like, Malik Washington had one of my prospect scores that I look at. That was like elite, like top of the charts. I mean, he fell in draft, so it's like, well, okay, we got to pay attention to that. But Puka had a very similar score in this metric and then fell in draft. And not saying he's Pooka Nakua, but I'm saying he's not a player that.

He's going to do anything if both of these guys are healthy. But should Tyreek or Jalen Wattle miss time, that's going to be a fascinating watch. And not every draft pick is the same. Like you watch the draft reactions. This one was Mike McDaniel on the phone. The GM talking about how Mike McDaniel's been trying to get him to draft him for a couple rounds now. And McDaniel was pumped for this pick. All the O'Dell fans upset about what you're saying right here. And O'Dell's opportunity. to be the next Chase Claypool of the Miami Dolphins. I think all the Odell fans are in New York, though, and they're fine with him not being good for the dolphins. Where are you with Tua when it comes to making decisions for late round draft picks at the quarterback position? I mean, Jason, you're making a face that says, I don't want him. You don't want a piece of the Tua experience. I mean, in best ball, I think he's a much better option simply because the variance. He was not very consistent. This running game is out of control sometimes.

And so you can have a funny way to put it, but it's true. Yeah, you can, I mean, put it this way. Who led the, am I correct that he led the NFL in passing yards last year? I believe two, I did. 4,624 yards. 560. See if that was number one. I believe he led the NFL in passing. You can't do better than that. His consistency score. He led the, yes, he led the NFL. You don't know who's number two? I do. Jared Goff. Yeah, baby. Those lions were awesome. But my point is, you can't ask much more from him, and he had a consistency score of an F. Having 23% of his games last year, he exceeded 20 points. This is a second straight year where if you drafted two and you played him for the first half of the year and then you traded him into Mike, it would have been a good decision. Yeah.

Which is exactly what I mean, Mike, you traded for two from me because he was an MVP candidate and he was dominating for the first six weeks of the season. Really needed a quarterback and then it tanks my season. Yeah, you were not happy. You acted like I did it on purpose like I told you to it to stop. You did. You were straight mad at Andy. You're telling me you wouldn't have been mad. Of course I would have been. I didn't do nothing. It was to his fault. I called him up and I said, yo, slow it down. And Andy got DAC? Off of the waiver. Wow, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, I would have been mad. So for Tua, he's going right now as the QB13 on Sleeper. Actually, one pick ahead of Jared Gough, so that's funny. But like Brock Purdy is ahead of Tua. So for a guy that can lead the league in passing yardage.

To only have the 29 touchdowns on the 4,600 yards, I think that that's low. I think that there's a little bit margin for that to go up by a couple. And I think that Jalen Waddle is a huge part of this. Like Jalen Waddle's struggles, it's hard to really encapsulate them on a box score where the guy was just, he was hurt all the time, you know, on and off the field. So playing and struggling through it wasn't anywhere close to the same player that we had seen before that. So I'm betting on Jalen Waddle to, like assuming health, of course, return to form. And then it being not, we have a, you have the elite Tyree Kill on one side. And then you have a really good Jailen Waddle. No, you have an elite Tyree Kill. And then you have an up and coming elite wide receiver in Jailen Wadle, who.

was just paid to be that as well. So I think that there is, there's a world where Tua hits the 4,600 yards, and he's at the 33 passing touchdowns, which is, I don't want to keep dumping on the C.J. Stroud draft pick, but it's like, Tua, if you're telling me at the end of the year, Tua has more yards and touchdowns than C.J. Stroud, go, that's not a leap. You're like, yeah, that's fine. That's, that's not weird. And yet, Tua is being drafted as the quarterback 13. and Stroud is being drafted as like the quarterback five. And last year they had the fourth most games lost on the offensive line, which had a higher rated unit. They lost the starting guard this offseason. Keeping Tua upright has been a huge priority, but he has the weapons. Like Waddle, even in the games he played, played a smaller snap count than the year before. So he missed games, was injured.

and then played a lower snap count because he's probably still injured in those games. Exactly, yes. So I know you love Waddle from a value perspective this year. Are you on board with the bounce back, Jay? For Waddle? Yeah, I do think Waddle has a bounce back. And to, you know, you joked around earlier about how two years in a row, if you had drafted Wattel, drafted Tua and traded him. I mean, it was awesome because he did start the season. Yeah, they have like new plays at the beginning of the year that nobody knows. And then they get figured out, I guess. But Miami's opening schedule is even better than Buffalo's. You got home against Jacksonville, home against Buffalo, who's lost so many defensive pieces. Seattle and then home against TNSC. TNSA. Yeah. I'll let me pop this tooth out real quick and give you that team name. So, you know, maybe you'd draft.

him and trade him a month in because it's not going to be consistent because of the running game. That's the one. Speaking of which, we already talked about Devon A. Chan. Yeah. He's good. Draft him. Late. He's going. He's going as the RB 8, Rahim Moster, the RB 25. So the world is saying we expect the baton to be passed. This isn't back to back. This isn't. you know, a committee situation where the expectation is most can repeat this outlandish season touchdown-wise, which really you needed that, right? That's how he was vaulted to that level was. 20-plus touchdown? Yeah, I mean, it was just, you know, there were games where he didn't have as many attempts, 11 attempts, nine attempts, 10 attempts. But getting into the end zone, having all those opportunities inside the five-yard line.

it was kind of unbelievable, and yet they brought all the same people back, and you imagine that, you know, when you listen to Mike McDaniels talk, it's, well, this is the leader of our running back room. Yes, and you should listen to those things. Like, that's why, that's what makes the bet on H.N. so scary is, like, it will be a timeshare. Moster is going to play. It always has been for him. Like, yeah, the baton, it can be passed. That's fine. And it's Devon H. H. N. is the leader. but he will be the leader of a timeshare with Moster and then are you that confident that when they get when it's they're inside the two or inside the five are you that confident it will be HN getting the majority of those no that's where it be where HM becomes a scary proposition I in Mostert you're like well this is Dave hand the baton back and forth

when they run off the field. That's kind of how this offense works. Yeah, it's weird. And this is pretty much the only offense, I think, in the NFL where I'm fine with both running backs. I think both are going to have great seasons. You saw this. I think the best comp for this is back in the day with Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones. And Thomas Jones was getting a ton of touchdowns. Jamal Charles had a ton of touchdowns. He wasn't used inside the five. It was like he just ripped off long ones. He had seven receiving touchdowns. And, you know, that's what happened. And that was the year with Jamal Charles was the number one running back in the NFL. That's the type of ceiling for Devon A-chan is 12 long rushing touchdowns, seven receiving touchdowns. And all of a sudden, he's the number one running back. All right. We will take another quick break and talk about a team that was, well, they didn't even get to start doing what they wanted to do last year. All right. As we continue through the AFC East.

We reach the New York Jets. Oh boy. With the grittiest seven and 10 season you've ever had, we all sat down Monday night football. They won seven games. Fated breath. And we said it begins. The Aaron Rogers era in New York. Here we go. Runs out with the American flag. I mean, the fans are excited and this is the future. Maybe that flag was too heavy. You know what I mean? It was like a pregame tweak. Right. And then it just wasn't prepped because he's not usually doing that. That's a good point. They get strained one leg a little bit too much. Let's just Aaron jog out. Can we look? It's just a casual jog out. Kyle, find out what hand he had the flag in. Was that the Achilles study tour? Yeah. It's important. Go on. They were projected for nine and a half wins. If he runs, dude, if week one, he comes out running again with the flag. Trade him mid game. Just get.

Just unload. This was, look, this was heartbreaking. It's too heavy. You two are very entertained. It's the drag. It's not aerodynamic. If you're an aged quarterback, let someone else hold the flag is what you're saying. Yeah. They also have the same projected win total as they did last year. That's crazy. Which is nine and a half. They have an easy strength of schedule. This is supposed to be the redemption year for Aaron Rogers. We know what the defense is like. We know what Breeze Hall is like. I mean. Doesn't it all come down to whether Aaron Rogers is healthy and capable as the quarterback of this football team for how this season goes? Because if he's an above average quarterback, let me just put him at like the Kirk Cousins level quarterback. Oh, oh, brother. Then this team is going to win a ton of football games, right? Yes. They have an incredible wide receiver who we haven't seen the full potential of in Garrett Wilson because he hasn't had somebody in giving him the football.

But this is so make or break, and it feels like you are, every bet you make on an offensive player when you draft them in fantasy for the Jets. Is it better on Aaron Rodgers? It doesn't feel like you can escape that reality. Yeah, there's at least a break glass in case of an emergency with Tyron Taylor, which is a significant backup upgrade this year. But you're still. He's always hurt too. I mean, every time he takes over as a backup, he gets hurt and you get the third string. Yeah. Who is this? Who's third string? We're going to need that information. It's a rookie, I believe. Yeah, I mean, you know, Garrett Wilson would be worse with Tyrod Taylor. But honestly, this is what is scary to me about drafting Garrett Wilson, who is almost my, you know, who scares me to draft pick. Okay. Just because I'm not as confident that Aaron Rogers at age 40, often Achilles' tear, will be great. Now, can he manage the game and get wins? Absolutely.

I think he's going to be very good for the Jets if he's, you know, healthy. How many passing touchdowns did they have last year? I deleted it out of our show, Doc, so you can't cheat. But do you know the answer to this? Man, I'm going to guess 13. Mike, you want to take a shot? That's so low. And I'm high, I'm sure. I think, I'm going to go, let's go 11. It's 11. Oh. It's 11 passing touchdown. That's, how is that possible? It feels, it feels almost impossible. And seven of the 11 were. inside the 10, which means there were four passing touchdowns that were outside the 10-yard line for a football team that plays 17 weeks, 29th and points per game. But it sets up pretty nicely this year, schedule-wise. Breece Hall, another year removed from the injury. We're all in love with the Breeze Hall potential for the season. I've got them ranked extremely high. Yeah, you've got to love that coming into the season,

at least entering the season. The Jets have, their offensive line is currently ranked fifth by PFF. We love that. They've made some big time additions. The, sign two tackles, right? I think the, like, my question for Brees Hall is how, like, what will the amount of the receiving game truly be? Because 95 targets is, that's not happening. If it did, then Brees Hall is, is far and away the number one fantasy football running back at the end of the year. But it was like the numbers got so juiced up by the end of the year where the Jets could do nothing offensively except be just be terrified and throw a debris and beg him to do something for the team. So where do you guys think the receiving work? What's that line going to be at? Yeah, that's a big deal. That's why I have him behind.

Bijon in my order because, you know, it's usually okay, Christian McCaffrey's one, then you got Bijin, who do you want? And you can make a strong argument for either of them. He didn't play 50% of the snaps for the first month after that point forward. He's actually on pace for 111 targets in the games that he was actually like fully active of. But you're right, what was happening was that offensive line was so bad and the quarterback play was so bad. They would literally just snap the ball, let him through, and dump it over the line to him. It was their only thing they could.

do on offense and sometimes it worked. This is a bet on better efficiency by the offense to get all together. More touchdown opportunities. Yeah, it's a bet on Breece Hall being. I mean, he had weeks last year. We were like, what in the world is going on? Yeah. It's like two yards of carry. Everybody knew what was happening on every play. Like if the offense gets more efficient, he should be more efficient. You know, he doesn't have to be everything on every play for them if they have a quarterback that's competent. But he's going to have every opportunity to be a top five.

running back, I do have some numbers for you, just so that I could throw these out here for Aaron Rogers. The last 300-yard game by Aaron Rogers was December 21st, 2021. I'm okay with Rogers was never a big. Not good as last year in Green Bay. That's, that wasn't his last. Was that his last? No, it wasn't the last year in Green Bay. I know. But I'm saying Rogers, like the Rogers experience for fantasy is not yards. The last time that he was the quarterback won on any week was October 20th, 2019, which was 1,726 days ago. To be fair, that is an exceptionally high bar, but yes. I don't need him to be the QB one. Last three touchdown game was November of 2022. So, I mean, I'm just saying it's, it's, that's not that bad.

So, Mike, you felt like those stats said, yeah, baby. Well, no, the yard is, honestly, like, he's just, he's an efficiency monster when it comes to throwing touchdown. So that's how he plays the game. But 11th of November of 22, you deleted the 23 season. So, I don't know. I actually don't feel like that's that bad either. That's not the worst. Nice stat, Kyle. Al Borland, I am curious, you were a lifelong Packer fan. You loved Aaron Rogers. You saw the injury last year. What is the mental state right now with, are you rooting for him? Have you? You know, do you have loyalty that extends beyond the jersey? No. So you're, I've got as much loyalty as he does. Oh, get bodied. Okay. Al with strong words. Yeah. Jordan Love season has begun. I feel like Packers, which the time will pass, the wounds will heal and he'll be welcome back. But right now I feel like Packers fans like, who's Aaron Rogers? Yeah. Yeah. And I would be saying that right now. Owl, how do you feel about Brett Farve?

I love him. Okay, yeah. It'll come back to you. It will. Garrett Wilson, you talked about him. We talked about Bruce Hall. The thing for Gary Wilson is similar to Drake Leonard, it's a scary pick. He's the wide receiver eight, which is still somehow a first round pick because it's so wide receiver heavy. But he is an electric player that if he gets average to above average quarterback play, he will return on that. It feels fragile right now, relying on Rogers and Tyrodder. Mike Williams, do we care? Hold on. That was Mike Williams with a question mark at the end of his name. Well, I also, it's, you know, a couple weeks into July here. I think this is the first time Mike Williams' name has made it onto the podcast in this year. Other than maybe like he's working off to the side in some camp. I mean, he's 29 years old.

It gives them, I mean, they didn't have great options on the outside. They have a true X if Mike Williams is healthy. That's a big if. Yeah, as an outside wide receiver older coming off of an ACL, you usually want to bet against that for fantasy. What was it a contract? Was it a one year? Yeah. One year, $10 million. Yes. That reminds me of when Beckham was tossed onto the Baltimore Ravens last year. Man. Yeah, I don't think Mike Williams is going to be an impact player for fantasy or for the Jets. Garrett Wilson will, Tyler Conklin will be involved. That's what I was going to ask you is like if Rogers is decent, give me another name outside of Garrett Wilson in the receiving game. Maybe Breeze Hall will have 90 targets, Mike. Maybe. I mean, because if we don't love Mike Williams. I mean, he's probably not going to be high volume no matter what. What do they have Xavier Gibson? Yep. And they and like.

They drafted Malachi quarterly. Yeah. But I really think they're going to use him as a gadget screen guy. The new kickoff rules. Kickoff returns, yep. They have to go on the road and play San Francisco in week one. That's a bummer. But then they get Tennessee, New England, Denver, and Minnesota. So, and we said fourth easiest schedule. It's going to be a very exciting year. Let us, please let us watch it. Let us watch. Stay healthy. It's better to have the storyline with him there. Like, that's what I felt when he went down was like, this was going to be something fun every week to be entertained by good or bad. All the prime time games. You know what I mean? Oh. For just cause. And they were all ruined. That's not fair to the people. We do have another team that plays in this division. They owned this division for, what, two decades? Yeah, it stopped in 2020. New England was four and 13 last year. The Belichick era is over. They were 29th in points per game. They had.

13 total pass plays inside the tin, which was the fewest of any team since 2018. That stat is insane. No way. I read it and I was like, I shouldn't read this out loud because there's no way that's right. That's that. That's insane. Their projected win total last year was seven and a half. This year, do you know where it is? I'm guessing four and a half. Four and a half wins at a 17 weeks. They also have the second hardest strength of schedule. That doesn't seem fair. They also have Jacoby Brissette and maybe eventually Drake May at quarterback. Didn't score a lot of points last year. Probably going to score more this year. Possibly going to score more of this year. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. That was a very nice change. The division is just brutal. This is like being tossed into the, you know, AFC North, which we just went over that has four competitive teams. And then just not being at that stage of your development where you can do it. Yeah, you've got.

You've got a bad setup for offense. Rookie quarterbacks aren't usually great for fantasy. Rookie quarterbacks are almost always bad for the receiving options. Eventually, Drake May will take the field. This is a team that's projected to win four and a half games. Jacoby Brissette is not coming in here and going to have them seven and one through eight weeks and hold off the rookie. So that means the majority of the season will be Drake May. He has set up a little bit for failure. with his wide receiver room. A lot of names you know, but not a lot of names you want. I mean, unless some of these rookies, if Jalen Polk has a great season, a breakout, you know, looks more like an anchor on Bolden, okay, there's hope there. There's avenues where you could talk yourself into it. But the majority of these wide receivers, they're all wide receiver threes in the NFL. I don't even think they have a wide receiver two. I think Jalen Polk can become that, but as a rookie,

He's more of like what should be an NFL team's wide receiver three. Fantasy value on the roster will be the difficult situation for fantasy managers in the draft. You always bring a four and 13 season into the next season's draft. It always happens. It's why Houston players were in, you know, way down the ADP board last year. It's going to happen to New England. You've got Ramandre Stevenson who just got paid. And we're in there. I mean that's that's the only degree he's a 20 so RB 22 right now yeah I'll bet he beats that I think he but he's not he's not going to smoke that you know this is like running back 18 so it's like okay if you if you need a running back to and you're in the sixth maybe even seventh round uh you know he'll he'll fall there then that's a that's a fine is that it is there a world or that's it there is definitely a world where that's it I would say the the the probable world is that's it there are