The “My Guys” Episode + Players to Forgive: LIVE in LA

I just find myself drafting him over and over. Robbie Anderson, wide receiver from the New York Jets. And here's what I have to bring. Last year, Sam Darnold, he missed some time with a foot injury. He came back and things went crazy for Sam Darnock. It's like he figured out, oh, this is how you play, quarterback in the NFL, you throw to your number one guy. Like he had back to back games.

He had back-to-back games of 100 plus pass rating because in those games, Robbie Anderson was averaging 10 targets per game. He was averaging a line of 6 for 84 and a full touchdown. That includes Robbie Anderson's and Sam Donald's terrible game against New England to close out the season. Over that time, Robbie Anderson was the wide receiver 7 in points per game.

And if you want to be awesome and remove the New England game, guess what? He was wide receiver two. If you take his bad games out, his stats go out? He improves. I mean, shockingly. Shockingly. I got to do that more. And the Jets have been smart. They put a second round tender on him. That means that they value this player. And so Robbie signed it. He's getting $3 million to play. So they're being patient. So that means that Robbie Anderson's playing for his big boy contract right now. He was an undrafted free agent. He hasn't.

been paid real, real money. He's playing for it right now, and he's spent this offseason. He's working out with Brandon Marshall. Heinz Ward is around as a coaching intern for the Jets. Oh, it was a narrative street. Here it comes. I warned you that it was coming. He did warn. I'll allow it. He's 6'3 with 4-4 speed. In reception, he scores among the elite of the top deep threats in the league.

That was really only his second year as a starter. Does that mean you believe in Sam Darnold as a breakout candidate? No. Just because you have one great fantasy option doesn't mean you break out. Okay. And then... And then my unscientific personal anecdote, I happen to meet Robbie Anderson. Look... That should get a war. No, no, no, no, no. This man's aura... Oh. Is this... This man's... You remove your finger from the board? You find it, Andy. There it is.

Did you just say this man's aura? Is Sammy Watkins in the house? Where's the lizard man? Look, we all live, we die, we're reborn. Thank you. But look, if you would have met him, you would say this is an unshakably intense man. My buddy in the backstage is nodding his head saying that this was the most intense dude you've ever met in your life. Robbie Anderson is one of my guys.

Here's what I know. I was so with you for so long. Yeah, it was a really compelling argument. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. The man who said, I can see the future and the Eagles win the Super Bowl, that you have a problem of me meeting somebody? No, that's a really nice right cross. Look, I'm going to come in, and I'm just going to land the plane square on the runway here. And we all.

We all know who I'm bringing up because, look, this is a year and a half. This is a year and a half in the making. This is not just something I've been talking about for too long. I'm thinking I'm talking about it, but it's been for this moment at this show. It's my guy, Carriott. Did you hit the button? I couldn't even hear. Hit it again. Oh, that was nice. All right. They can sing. Look, look, look. I think.

I think some people, and by some people, I mean Andy, are annoyed by how much I've talked about Carrie-on-Johnson. However, a little insight, I am a little annoyed as well. I've talked about them a lot. And sometimes it gets tiring, talking about the same great statistics. So I went elsewhere.

I have a few new arguments that I want to make on Carryon Johnson. It's not about his talent. It's not about how good he was from week three to ten when he was the starter already. Not about any of that. I've shared all of that. I went elsewhere. I was like, well, okay, look, I am biased because I'm, you know, that's what happens when you're in love. And so I wanted to say, okay, let's let's take the roast.

colored glasses off and see what I can find. Scott Barrett, a lot of people know him from Twitter, great friend of the show. Follow him at Scott Barrett DFB.

He has a proprietary metric called actual opportunity. He believes it's the most important metric for a lot of players, especially running backs. And so what he's done is he's gone back into the history of every single offensive play caller in the NFL. And he's taken a look at that metric of actual opportunity. Which play callers are the best for the running back one?

On a team specifically, no shocker. Andy Reid is number one. We've said for years you've got to have his running back, whether it was shady or whoever, when Kareem Hunt got the starting job, we were like, you have to draft Kareem Hunt because of Andy Reid.

There's a lot of great guys on this list for running back ones like Pat Schumer, number three for the Giants. Obviously we saw that last year. Greg Roman, Brian Schottenheimer, Mr. Run First. Those guys are all behind Darrell Bevel, the new offensive coordinator and play caller for the Detroit Lions because he, unlike what Matt Patricia says they want and the GM says they want, does not usually use a running back by committee.

Now, I have statted Caryon Johnson out for a running back by committee. That's why he's my number 10 running back right now and not, you know, higher than that. Number one. Right. He's currently being drafted as the number 15 running back. And look, you can't just spout that stat and not have context. We don't want to just make compelling arguments. We want you guys to be informed and know. So in reality, Daryl Beville, he had Adrian Peterson for most of that. He had Marshaun Lynch for the other half of that.

These are great number one bell cow running backs. But when I was talking to you guys last year about North Turner, the argument could have been made there. It's like, well, North Turner had Adrian Peterson and Emmett Smith and Ledanyan Tomlinson. But that was what he was used to. And it turned out that Christian McCaffrey was a guy that was great. Carry on Johnson is great.

There's a reason that Carryon Johnson was traded up for in the second round. There's a reason that he won the 2017 offensive SEC player of the year. There's a reason he had 1,400 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns in the SEC. There's a reason why he looked great on the field. It's because Carry on Johnson is great. So here's another other person's opinion, and it's not even just opinion. It's a great metric. Joe Holka.

Great friend of the show. Follow him at Joe Holka. What is happening? I wish I had at Jason Moore, but I don't follow me at Jason FFL. Look, he has this great metric called rushing expectation. He's done it for years. I saw the data behind it once, and I was like, oh, I can't even understand. It is intense. But years ago, he showed me empirical data that Todd Gurley was great.

even when he was with Jeff Fisher, but because of the offensive line and the usage, it was impeding him. But that the talent of Todd Gurley had not changed from the breakout rookie year. So what does he see on Carryon Johnson? And here's the thing. He reached out to me, and he said, hey, Jay, my data on Carryon Johnson is great. He's the sixth. Follow me at Joe Hoka. Yeah, yes.

He's the sixth highest percentile on the ground for running backs. 86th percentile through the air overall. He's a great receiving back. And he's the 94th percentile on his metrics on second level yards. But it's the air yards that matter to me. It's the receiving game because we all know Theo Riddick has been cut.

That is 74 targets. He's a man. Those are the Broncos fans like, we got him. We got him. We got him. Congratulations, Broncos. Look, Theoretic had 74 targets last year. But in the last four seasons, Theoretic has had 311 targets and 247 receptions. Do you know how many running backs have more than 247 receptions? Please tell us, Jason. Zero. He's literally...

the highest reception running back in the last four years, and now Kerryon Johnson inherits that role while he's good at that role. So, look, I've made all the arguments about I just think he's a good back, and even at the workload he had with Theo Riddick, he was a top 15 back. I believe that he is going to be in a committee. That's why I statted him in a committee. I do think his receiving yardage goes up, his receptions go up.

I think he's a top 10 back. I've got him right now at number 10. But should chips fall the right way? I think you have someone that can be excellent. If you look at the high stakes league right now, they're taking him about the running back 10. I'm all in. Everybody knew it beforehand, but I had no idea. I've got to play my flag. I am learning so much right now. He's my guy. He is your guy once again. Very nice. Did I sway you at all, Andy? It was compelling and long.

Okay, fair. Both true. It's interesting. We'll find out. I still think it's a bad offense. I still think he's got to score. Touchdowns. Christopher McCaffrey could do it last year. We'll see what happens. Okay. I would love nothing more for you to be happy, Jason. If Kerry-on-Johnson gets injured, I will die. Like, I will be off the show. You hear that, Carry-on? You're playing for my life. Be careful. All right, my guy number two. Chris Carson.

Chris Carson. And I'll be brief, more brief. And he's the RB 24 right now. Somebody here really dislikes him. I don't know why, especially after I talk for a minute. But he is basically, he's basically the meme that you see where the guy's walking down the street with his girlfriend. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. He turns around at the other girl. Go through Rashad Penny. And it's like, that's Rashad Penny over there.

And what I want to say is please turn your eyes back around to your girlfriend because she had the second most rushing yards over the last four weeks was the number seven running back over the second half of the entire season, had nine touchdowns on the best rushing offense in football, 1,100 plus yards, number four in yards per.

or yards after contact per carry. He's a tough dude. He's just a really, really good player, and I think he's super undervalued in this year's draft because everybody wants to find the slightly more dynamic guy. But the Seahawks just run the ball so much. We don't have to choose people. We can choose them both if you want. Well, that would be bad for the meme. No. That would be bad for the meme. We'll depart from the meme. Now it's a party. Oh. Oh.

Not safe for work, bro. We'll depart from the meme, but both can be great players this year. And Chris Carson, here's the truth. I don't think that he can be middle ground. I think you either have a guy that's going to be a top 10 running back, or you have a guy that'll get hurt. I don't think where he's being drafted at RB24 makes any sense at all for the player that he is on the offense that he's on. And the coach loves him, the talent's good, the opportunities better than any backfield in football pretty much. So.

We don't have a small sample size on him. He's just great.

And he's being under value. And I don't know if people remember last season, but the first two weeks of the year, for some reason, he wasn't really the main guy. You had seven attempts on the ground, six attempts on the ground. And then they're like, I love Chris Carson because he was on a 312 carry pace the rest of the way, which is basically leading the NFL in today's NFL. So I agree completely. I know I've been a big Rashad Penny believer as far as talent.