Week 12 Matchups + Tough Start/Sits, Wheel of Shame - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/22

difficult question. I'm going to lean on the Tankdale side. That's where I am. Because I will not be surprised at all. If all of a sudden, you know, two weeks ago, Giovante Williams got three total opportunities in the game. He got one carry and two targets. And if that happens this week, I won't be surprised, but we're so recency biased where it's like whatever happened last week is what's going to happen this week. And that's just not what actually happens. So hopefully you have a different path than these two running backs. I am playing against Audric Estimate in an important matchup, so he's going to go ham. That is next level analysis. I mean, we just know that's how the world works. That's the Murphy's Law metric. Yep. Brock Bowers, think of them as a wide receiver. Think of them as a tight end. Think of him as the best option for the Raiders. He's great. He's so good. Third among all players in yards after the catch, and he's a tight end. He's a rookie.

You know, Denver's defense is very good. If I were Denver, I would try to stop this man and no one else. I would focus on him, but he, he's pretty hard to cover. And Jacobi Myers is receiving lines at. So you could do worse than Jacobi Myers in a flex spot this week. The question mark for the Raiders has been who in the world gets handoffs behind Gardner Minshue, maybe? Maybe you just don't start running backs in this entire game. Yeah, I think that that's probably a good approach. As of Thursday, which is the last practice report we have, Alexander Madison with the ankle and Zemir White with the quad, neither practice. So if that continues, and it seems kind of likely, then Amir Abdullah, I think, is the play. You've got rookie Dylan Laobie, who has one touch this year and he fumbled it. So I'm not like.

They said he's going to be a big part of the game plan. The glame plan. You always love a good glame plan. It didn't work well. It's a glamorous game plan. So Amir Abdullah, because he is a past catching PPR type of guy, I would throw him in there in a pinch. Going to be gross. But it's going to be gross. And you just don't expect much. He can get all of the work and not hit 10 fantasy points. Yeah, we've learned that from Zemir White for the first couple weeks of the season. All right. Let's take a break and we'll jump into some more matchups.

Well, Jason, for the first time today, we get to talk about a matchup not featuring a 2-8 team. The 49ers at 5-and-5 go to Lambo to take on the Packers who are sitting at 7 and 3. After their fortuitous blocked kick last week, the Draft King Sportsbook line, Green Bay minus 3, the over under 46 and a half. It has come down from 48. We have question marks around the health of Brock Purdy. That's what I think has moved the line. When you see these lines, sometimes a game in Lambo, you think weather? There's a chance for a little bit of rain here, but this is not, I'm not concerned with weather at all. I think the line has moved down from the chance that Brock is not himself or gets knocked out or doesn't play. So the game seems on the surface as an NFL matchup pretty exciting, but both teams are kind of on the slow side of the way that they play. The 49ers are 31st in neutral pace. They have not put together a complete game this year.

where they look like themselves, in my opinion. Really? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're sitting at five and five. Oh, I thought you were talking about the Packers. Nope. 49ers. Yep. I would agree. I would agree. They just have been, you know, they'll have a game or they'll have a play here, a quarter here. They've got injuries. They've dealt with, you know, injuries in their wide receiver room, obviously, losing Iyuk in the running back room, McCaffrey coming back late. The quarterback's banged up. They've got injuries on the defensive side. I was listening to a 49ers analysis today. And they were talking about their defense EPA per play is like first quarter, they're like the third best in the league. Second quarter, seventh best. Third quarter, 14th. Fourth quarter, 28th. Wow. Like their defense somehow runs out of gas. They just didn't get their cardio in this off season. And so, you know, from a fantasy perspective.

There's a lot, I mean, this is a matchup that in general I like. You know, both teams projected for more than 20 points. Both teams good offenses if Brock Purdy is healthy. And let's just assume Brock Purdy toughs it out, comes out, and plays just a normal game of football. If that happens, I think this will hit the over. Both offenses towards that fourth quarter while the defenses get slow and the need for this victory to head towards the playoffs is there. They get the job done, put up points. That's kind of how I'm expecting this game to go, barring further worse news on Brock Purdy. That means Jaden Reed is in my lineup. Juan Jennings is in my lineup. These are start of the week as well, and I was wondering if you were concerned about the injury to Brock with how Julan is projected. I mean, obviously if Brock doesn't play, Juan Jennings is, he goes from being must start, I feel like alpha start to just.

Don't play. I'm not going to play. I would play Tank Dell over him if it comes out that Brock doesn't play. Again, my current expectation just knowing the man Brock Purdy is that he will play, tough it out, get a shot in that shoulder, and play fine. Well, it's going to trickle down too. Debo Samuel's been struggling. George Kittle's supposed to play after missing a week with the handstring injury. He's definitely playing. He said he wouldn't miss playing in Lambo. Yeah, I just, I hope he's right about that. It's tough with a hamstring. What is his hamstring saying right now? Because you know what I mean? Like the man says yes. The hamstring might say, you can you think of another injury in all of sports, but especially football, that is more re-agravated than a hamstring where people think they're good to come back and then they run full speed and take themselves. No, I mean, that's the one you most commonly see is it's really hard to simulate.

the adrenaline and the full speed. Being chased. Yeah, it's just different. You run at a different, I mean, this is just something that happens in sports. And I think the hamstrings is the most. Look, I'm not, I'm not like professional athlete. Okay. Breaking news. That seems like that was a joke. I was hoping it was. I was so excited. It works both ways. It works. It's a joke because like that's not breaking news to anybody. Okay. But also, we have actual breaking news? Yeah, the Giants are releasing Daniel Jones. Oh, good for them. And good for him. I genuinely. What's the reaction back there in Ducers Allie? You all laughed. Just the good for them. I think this is a good move. They're not going to play him anymore. Why make him? He came to the team this morning and asked if they would release him. See, that, okay, that makes complete sense. We mutually agree that would be best for the team. Yeah, he's he, even if something happens to the starter, there's no chance Daniel Jones will play another snap. And so if that's the case.

making this guy show up, even just to practice and to the podium and to the, like, it's embarrassing. He had to play scout team safety, and that's kind of the bottom of the rung. Yeah, I think Baker did that once. But, yeah, let him go out, see if he can get a backup job for an important team. Like, you're telling me teams out there that are playoff bound won't think, hey, I don't have a decent backup. Not that Daniel Jones is great, but if a starter gets injured, he can go in there and win games for a good team. So I think it's great. That's good news. And if you're, you know, if he hit the waivers in a dynasty or not a dynasty, but in a Superflex league, maybe pick them up in case he signs a backup job. Anyways, I was talking about my elite athleticism. Yes, you were in the midst of speaking of your acclimator, you know, your familiarity with the hamstring injuries. My familiarity with just how I remember back when we were. The demands. Playing on our football team, our championship, our city of Peoria championship team.

And it's so amazing the difference between running routes, running routes, running routes, making good cuts, coming out of breaks. I'm running. I'm thinking I'm running on full speed. The difference between that and when a ball touches your fingertips and that ball is held on to you by you. And then you run. They're running for your life. And then after that play, I am exhausted. Remember how the reps used to kind of make fun of you running? Oh, yeah. Yeah, they did. Because you were running like a wild man. Yeah, I think they said I lost all like control of your arms and legs. They said I kick my butt when I run. And that doesn't mean like metaphorically. They mean that literally. Like my foot hit. It didn't, but it must look like it. So. So what you're saying is you get it. When you really get it. I understand the plight of these NFL players is what I'm saying. And so when the ball is in their hand, hamstrings can be torn again. But all that to say, George Kittle, I think he'll play. And if he's out there, you have to start him.

You are faster than you look. Thank you. Hmm. Maybe. Maybe thank you. Jordan Love, I think at home in this matchup, you play him. At home this year, he's averaging 285 passing yards of 2.8 touchdowns. He's good at Lambo. I think he's a very good start this week. Yeah, and last week it was pretty ugly for him and he still ended up over 20 fantasy points. Josh Jacobs? He's averaged 17 fantasy points since week five. Just pay attention to the limited practices. He should be fine. This is the time of year you kind of preserve your players. You give them opportunities to miss practice or be limited in practice to keep them ready for the playoffs. You know, I'm not into Romeo Dobbs. I know Mike, if he were here, would bring him up. He's been outside the top 40 and three straight games. Two catches last week. Don Tavian Wicks, Goose Egg Town. Right now it's Watson. Now, Christian Watson or Tankdale?

I will take Tankdale there. And I don't mind going either way. I kind of like Watson this week. He obviously had his career higher in Yardage last week, has been more involved, came back from the injury, and has kind of usurped Dantavian Wicks and the snap counts. Fine with that. I think the biggest question in this game, or I think what should be the biggest question, and it might not be for people who have him, is Debo Samuel. Because he's Debo. He cost you an early pick, and you expect big things. And so he's just kind of an auto start, but I don't know that he should be. I would start Juan Jennings over Debo. He is, I'm the lowest on him this week. He is, I'm the lowest on him this week. Yeah, I'm sitting at 18 in our consensus. I got him at 23 this week. Yeah, I mean, I'm four for 22 last week in against the Seahawks, which is not a great defense. He doesn't have a great history against Green Bay. His fantasy points scored against Green Bay 12, 9.9, 7.7, 9.8, 3.4.

So I'm not saying bench Debo Samuel, but I am saying look at your options. Josh Downs? Yeah, I would play Josh Downs over. Zayflower. I would play Zay Flowers over him. I'd play Cortland Sutton over him. So those are the levels of players where it's like you might have to make that decision until you see him look good because he hasn't. The Cardinals are six and four. They go to Seattle to take on the five and five Seahawks who just knocked off the 49ers. The Draft King Sportsbook line here is Seattle minus one. Okay. It opened up, I believe, with the Cardinals.

It was a pick of like minus half a point. So the home crowd is pan up. They're over and under in this game is 47 and a half. And this is another game where you mentioned it earlier this morning to me, Jason. Scattered showers. Probably not a full downpour, probably not windy, but could be wet. I think this one will have a slight effect on the game. A little bit more running. And this is not like, I think you could play Kyler, I think you could play Gino and the receiving options. But if this game were in Arizona, I would love this game. I would love the controlled environment and hope for a really offensive back and forth. I'm less optimistic in the outdoor environment, a noisier crowd, a rainier game, you know, which kind of is.

seen by the 47.5 point over under. I'll bet this would be about 50 if it was in Arizona. The Seahawks defense has struggled, especially recently against wide receivers, and Marvin Harrison has struggled to put up consistent performances week in and week out. Your confidence level with Marvin this week against Seattle is pretty high. Yeah, I mean, I would start Marvin over Debo, if that's the line. What about over JSN? So JSN has been really, really good, but JSN, I still do not believe, is the one for this offense. Metcalfe being back, nine targets, seven for 70 last week is the, he's still the alpha for this team. So I would play Marvin Harrison over JSN. That's not to say, I would play JSN over Tank Dell. James Connor has been very, very good as DK rushing lines at 67.5 yards and the Seahawks are 26th.

against opposing running backs over the last six weeks. Yeah, that doesn't even tell. Is there a chance you would play Trey Benson? There's a chance. There's a chance I'm playing Trey Benson in my running back slot, but that's just because things are tough in the streets in that league. Yeah, yeah, I mean. I'm not excited about it, but yeah, their defense has fallen off a clip. They started the season looking like, like week one, I knew this was a team to target. at the running back position. And they proved me wrong for a couple weeks. It was like, okay, maybe they have a decent run defense. No. No, that was fools gold. It was all lies. Since that point in time, their 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 29th and expected points added per play in the rushing game. Their defense is not good. So James Connor is a must start. Trey Benson is not someone I want to start, but in a pinch. Did you flex him or Xavier Worthy? I would go Xavier Worthy there.

The Cardinals. I would play Trey Benson over Amir Abdullah. Yeah. Yeah, he's been double digits, two straight weeks. People probably don't know the name. Haven't heard about that. The fact, all the numbers you said about Seattle's defense is why it was so unsettling that Debo did nothing against them. Right, yeah. That's why it was so frustrating. You're usually not able to tackle Debo Samuel. Like, it takes a village, and it took one guy, usually that game. And the Seahawks were so disappointed in their own defense that they got rid of their leading tackler two weeks ago. And then one. on the road in San Francisco. Kenneth Walker, confidence level with Walker in a game that you think could be more on the ground with the rain. 10 out of 10. Walkers must start. He's in your lineup. Train McBride leads all tight ends and first read targets. Please play him. Really wanted both these running backs in Draft Kings. I don't know if you've got either of them. I don't have either of them because I liked other guys more, but I expect big things from both guys. I was going to say that sounded a little bit like the whole like coach, the coach is like, we got to get that guy the ball.

Ah, yeah. And you're like, but you're the coach. I don't know how we can get them the ball more, but we're going to try. I'm not going to do it. Like when you're like, I really wanted both of these guys in draft kings. And then you're like, but I have neither. Right. I have better options. But you're the guy that you're the guy that put him in. I still have better options. Okay. Okay. But I might say you didn't really want them. I can want a lot of things. Yeah, no. But I only get a couple things. Al Borland says he thought the same thing. Um, okay, D. K. McKaff, uh, JSN's lines 56 and a half.

You can definitely play JASN. I didn't mean to imply you might bench him just because I compared him to the Harrison start. But JASN has been top 12 in back-to-back weeks. And D.K. Metcalf has a good matchup here too. I really like Metcalfe this week. Tyler Lockett's kind of falling off the face of the earth. Yep. He's not someone that is in the startable category to me. Okay. Let's move forward Sunday night football. The Eagles at 8 and 2. The Rams at 5 and 5. The DK Sportsbook line here, Philly minus 2 and a half. The overrunner is 49. Pretty important game for the playoff positioning, especially for the Rams, trying to survive the logjam in the NFC West. Philadelphia trying to. One game between the entire division. Yeah. It's really crazy. And Philly's right there with Detroit. You know, they're only a game behind, so they need to keep winning.

Jalen Hertz, quarterback three on the year. He's an auto start every week along with Barclay, along with A.J. Brown, who's receiving line is at 75 and a half. The real question mark's going to be... Did you see the Eagles their contract that they gave to Barclay and the incentives? No. Man, Howie Roseman is so smart. I love this man. I'm so jealous of Eagles fans who get him to run your organization, but they did not put any touchdown incentives. in his contract because they don't want the tush push to like, you know what I mean? Aggravate him? Yeah, he's got yardage, you know, all these, but no touchdown incentives in his contract. It's just brilliant. Yeah, he tries to do his scoring from distance. Yeah, he needs to. I mean, he's had, he's a 55 yard touchdown, 65, two touchdowns last game, now goes to a controlled environment in Los Angeles.

takes on the Rams. Rams have been good against running backs, but who cares? It's sake one. AJ Brown's receiving lines at 75 and a half. We talked earlier this week about the fact that pass rate over expectation, the Eagles have been dead last over the last four weeks, so the opportunities haven't been, you know, there haven't been a lot of them for the wide receivers. And now Devante Smith might miss this game. Does that open the window for Dallas Goddard to be a spot started tight in? Absolutely, if Devante Smith doesn't play. It seems like a real worry. And the fact this is a night game, it's even scarier for you to wait it out. You can even put Devante Smith in your flex and pick up Dallas Goddard as the Sunday night pivot and play him in a flex spot if you need. Because usually you do see Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard have kind of a back and forth affair of when they both play.

They're not as good when either one misses. The other guy is usually very good. Obviously, A.J. Brown is the bell of the ball here and we'll have a dominant game. I'm thrilled that this is Sunday night football. This game's going to be a blast. And I could see it going any direct. Like, I have no feel for this game. I could see the Eagles blowing them out. I could see the Rams winning and holding down, holding everything down at home. You know. How do you end up seeing, did you call this game? I thought the line was smaller than I thought it'd be. I think the Rams at home, the way that they've been playing on offense with a healthy Puka and Cooper Cup can keep up. But I don't know if they'll be able to hold up the entire game. Kairn hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since week seven. Yeah, too much was made about all of his rushing touchdowns. And this isn't the matchup for it. I mean, the Eagles defense is one we have been trying to avoid.

That's the reason I'd side with the Eagles on this one. Just their defense performance. I agree. This is going to be, this is going to take a big performance from Matthew Stafford against a tough defense. If I had to put a dollar down, I would say that the Eagles are going to take care of business and it's going to come on the back of Matthew Stafford laying on his back. Yeah, that would be the concern. That would make him a questionable, very questionable spot start. Kyron's in your lineup. Cup and Pook are in your lineup. For sure. And then check out. Yeah. All right. We'll take a quick break and hit the Monday night game and fantasy face off. Daniel Jones release leaves behind dead cap hits of $47.1 million in 2024 and 22 million in 2025. Man, and it's so shocking because when he signed this very surprising contract, no one could have seen this outcome coming. No, we assumed it would just work out.

Yeah, that Daniel Jones would lead them to a lot of victories and was worth every dollar that they spent on a massive contract after watching him for years. How much is Daniel Jones to blame for the whole story and how much is all the things that sometimes disrupt the young player's career? So you talk about the weapons that he had, the offensive line. The change of the head coaching position, the loss of Sequin Barclay. I would say most of it is on Daniel Jones. Like 75% is on Daniel Jones. 25% is on where they drafted him. It goes back to that draft. I still feel like if Daniel Jones was a second round pick, his career. Hey, it's me. Dave. Dave. Dave, Gettleman just, first of all, there was no reason to draft him that high. No one was going to take Daniel Jones that high. But it put.

this pressure, this expectation, this, put too much on shoulders that were never meant to carry that load. That's a really good way to put it. So, yeah, I blame Dave Gettleman at least 25%. But Daniel Jones is just, he is a good quarterback. He is not a good NFL caliber starter. He's a perfect backup. He is. And he'll be that at this point. Baltimore. Monday night football, taking on the Chargers, the Har Bowl. Thank you, Andy. I saw this in our show, Doc, and someone wrote the Harbaugh Bowl. That's not what it is. What? It's not the Harbaugh Bull. It's the Harbaugh. You clowns. Come on. It's right there. It's a Harbowl. Harbowl. The Ravens are 7 and 4. The Chargers are 7 and 3. Baltimore's 2.5 point road favorites. The overrunner is a beautiful, spectacular, majestic.

Wonderful, 51 points. That's surprising to me. The Harble. I'm so excited for this game. I do think it ends up slightly more defensive than we want. John William Harbaugh versus James Joseph Harbaugh. John sounds like a wonderful composer. Yeah. Some of his best work. If he did Jurassic Park. Star Wars. Yeah. All right. Well, look, 51 point over under. Who don't you start? Yeah, I mean, despite me saying that I think it will be a little bit more defensive than all the hopes and expectations and even the betting line, you are going to start most everybody. Obviously, Derek Henry is in without question. Lamar Jackson is in without question. Justin Herbert, I think, should be started in most situations because when you look at the Ravens, a little bit more difficult to run on them, they are 32nd.

in fantasy points given up to wide receivers, both on the course of the season and the last six weeks. They're 29th and 28th, respectively, at the quarterback position. So you could throw on them, especially towards the end of the game. So I think Quentin Johnson, your start of the week, Ladd McConkey's a fine play, Herbert's in. So now you get to the other questionable players, which is the Dobbins Gus Edwards, running backs who, despite Dobbins being the RB12 on the season and having a lot of touchdowns, he has not been efficient. His rushing line's only 50. Yeah, I mean, and I think that's a proper line. But he's who I'd play over Edwards, for sure. Yeah, for sure. He's the starter. Edwards is the backup. But there's something about, like Edwards was the touchdown machine in Baltimore. There's something that just feels like poetic about a rushing touchdown for Gus. Who wins the game? I think Baltimore wins the game. I'm on the side of the Chargers. I will be rooting for the Chargers because in games like this, in amazing, important.

storyline-driven games. I always root for the hometown because I just want everybody there to go home happy. To have a nice time. To have a nice time. I don't want the kids out there being like. Zay Flowers is, it's been pointed out to me, he's the wide receiver eight on this season. Does he feel that way? He does not feel that way, but he does feel must start. I mean, so I guess maybe he does. He's been a little inconsistent. But when he has his good games, I mean, they're really, really good. He's been the wide receiver two, the wide receiver 11, wider server six, wider receiver 13 a couple of times. He has, you know, weak winning talent and in a game with a 51 point over under, half to start him. 58.8% of the time over his last 17 games has he given you over 10.5 fantasy points. That is a B in our consistency charts, which you can see as part of join the foot.com. That is such a good. Like, I think if people, you know, maybe you're driving, maybe didn't pay attention, what you just said.

58% of the time gives you that line that's a good game. I think most people would think that is bad. Like, oh, he's only giving you like a game that you really like 58% of the time. And then they hear, oh, it's a B in our consist. You want to hear something frightening? Sure. Tyree Kales at 47.1%. Well, yeah, I mean, this season. I mean, it's the last rolling 17. It is the last rolling 17. So we'll go back into last season. But my point is. Don't overreact to bad wide receiver performance as people. Take talent because... Give me another name of somebody that you would view as better than Zayflower. Better than as a receiver or for fantasy? I'm just saying somebody you would think is consistent. I want to look up the number for you and give you that percentage. Who's somebody more consistent in your mind than Zayflowers who's sitting as a B? D.K. Metcalfe. Let's take a look at D.K. Metcalfe.

He is an A in consistency. 64.7% of the time. There you go. So that's what, 6% higher? Yep. And that's what. And that's an A. That's like upper echelon, unless you're C.D. Lamb, in which case you're like 82%. Alman Raw, St. Brown, Justin Jefferson. Probably A.J. Brown, I would assume, but I'm not sure on that one. Check AJ Browns. When you get past those top five or six. It seems like D.K should be an A minus. Do we got minuses in there? We don't have. We might need to get some minuses. I don't think we have minuses. Make a note. All right. Note has been made. Yeah. I don't want to be lumped in. Like if I, if I got a 96 on a test, I don't want to be lumped in with the guy that got a 91. That's fair. You know what I mean? Because there is a tear break there. Yeah. But there is also a tier. It is an appropriate tier break between DK and Zay, but it's not an appropriate tier break.