RB Rankings: 11-20 + Player Debates, Hard Knocks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/10

eight touchdowns, rarely used in the passing game, 20 catches on the year, finishes the RB 11. Very fun player to watch play football when he's in a rhythm, when he's on, when he's the guy. But has consistently been the player with the largest gap between NFL impact and fantasy impact at the running back position. I think he's kind of just known around the league. He's a top five talent at the running back position. But in fantasy, he's not that. He has the ability to win you a week because when he hits, I mean, it's kind of comical. He did not have a fantasy finish that was between like 11 and 26. Yeah. So he would 3, 10, 7, 3, 4, 7, 5, right? Those were the great weeks. Mm-hmm. Congratulations. You probably won because of Nick Chup. And then it was, you know, 33, 27, 37, 41, 38, 41.

and all indications of Kareem Hunt is going to be involved. And Kareem Hunt is not this player that they just lock into, you know, third down between the 20s or, you know, he can take goal line carries, opportunities away. They can ping pong back and forth between these players. So Nick Chubb ends up in this weird category of fantasy running back where he's being drafted as the RB9, and it's just probably a little too rich for my blood. Yeah, it makes complete sense. It's interesting bringing him up right after D'Andre Swift because Nick Chubb is such a better running back than D'Andre Swift in real life. But for fantasy purposes, he is nowhere near as good and it all comes down to the pass catching it running back position. If you're not named Derek Henry, you need to catch passes. Now, there's always a point where...

Any running back will become valuable for fantasy. It's a matter of where he's being drafted. Right now in Sleeper, average draft position, he's at the top of the second round. Yeah. That hasn't been happening on Underdog. Where I've been doing drafts for, you know, a long time this off season, I'm getting him sometimes middle of the third round. He falls a little bit later. And at that point, I think he's a great value because there's not other guys who have the talent. You know, we've, you know, we have seen him. three years in a row be a top 12 fantasy running back at the end of the year. There is value to Chubb. But because he doesn't catch the ball, he is not game script proof. He will be boom, bust. And so you need to know that when you're drafting him. To me, he is someone that I would love to have as my RB2 when I have a stud wide receiver. That I feel like I'm set up for success. I don't feel comfortable with him as my running back one solely because of the

inconsistency of the fantasy finish on a weekly basis. Yep. All right. We did just get some. Breaking news. Sleeper alert. We lost another center in Tampa Bay. Oh, no. Yeah, you didn't get it yet? No, I didn't see that. Carted off. Leg injury. Robert Hainesi, who was the next man up after Ryan Jensen. He was the reason that it might be okay. Might not be okay. Yeah. Leonard Fournett should still catch passes. I say that's even more targets. Yeah. Oh, man. That is brutal. All right. Let's move on to Javante Williams, who comes in at 15 on our consensus running back rankings for 2022. It's 22 years old. He's so good. It's part of the excitement around Javante William. He's so good. If you look at second year running backs in their age 22 season since 2000, the ones that saw at least.

240 opportunities, which is what Giovante had last year. They averaged 17.4 fancy points per game. That would have been running back four last year. More than 65% of them were top five on a points per game basis. So the start to the career, you know, what you see from Giovante Williams, look, I got to admit something. That's starting to creep it. Let's start to creep in. Let's hear it. I think it's going to work out. Yeah, it is. It is going to work out. The people love it, Andy. The more, you know, we do this fantasy football thing over years, the more that these situations start to kind of reveal themselves. And this situation is screaming 50-50 times here for about the first half of the year. And maybe a full takeover over the back half of the year with Giovante having that breakout potential. Now, look, I don't know how you weigh that with the draft capital if you're going to be.

giving back some of your year and having a player that's maybe not the RB13 where he's being drafted over the first half of the year. But I think it's going to work out for Javante Williams. And I think that the changing the guard will happen. And I don't know how fast. I don't know if it's going to be a, you know, we've seen it in years past. It can be the Doug Martin three touchdown week. Like does Javante go out there in week seven and have two 60 plus yard runs? And all of a sudden it's like, oh. Well, this is the guy that's going to get 70-30. I don't know. I don't know how it will happen, but I think it will happen. Yeah, I mean, the reality is what you're doing when you draft Giovante Williams is you're betting on talent. He is exceptionally talented. He can catch the ball. He is a phenomenal runner. He's part of now a great offense. The touchdown scoring opportunities will be there. Last year, he was in a complete.

identical 50-50 timeshare with Melvin Gordon, and he finished as the running back 17 as a rookie. He's coming in this year as the leader. Now, let's say it starts 50-50, which there's been reports all over the place from camp. Oh, it's going to be 70-30. Giovante, no, it's 55, 45. Oh, Melvin Gordon's very involved. The reality is Melvin Gordon's a good back. He will be involved. Giovante Williams is their special NFL player entering his prime. on a great offense who will be very, very good. He will be better than his rookie year where he was the running back 17. There are very, very few players in fantasy football who have that top three upside. Should something happen to Melvin Gordon or should Javante just be handed the reins at some point this season? He is that talented. So I don't have any problem making that hardcore bet. Look, 11 12ths out of every league.

is going to lose your league. You don't win every year. One person wins. And the person who wins is the guy who got the most talented crazy breakout players. They got Cooper Cup. They got Jonathan Taylor. They ended up with those awesome, super talented players. And Javonte Williams is one of those super talented players. I got a comparison for you. Okay. And maybe it's a poor one. You can tell me. I'll be the judge. David Johnson, Chris Johnson in Arizona. Okay. Oh, I like that. Talent. veteran that situation is similar to me where you know david johnson wasn't going to his breakout season he wasn't being drafted you know to top 10 running back um you know we saw him in his rookie season have opportunities but he was stifled by a veteran chris johnson the way that melvin gordon look melvin is not taking away from what and hell was ellington in front of him that year too yeah they were all involved

And at the end of the day, you know, eventually somebody takes over. And you have to ask yourself, can Giovante Williams be a takeover back? And I think the answer is yes. I think he can do things in a game that make you say he has to be out there all the time. So, again, he can do that. That doesn't mean he will. Otherwise, he'd be drafted as RB2 right now. He's being drafted to RB13 because of the ambiguity. But Jason's right. You try to win your league. Certain players fit that mold to me. Williams fits that mold to me. The nice thing for me about... And the price is not bad. That's exactly, like, where we are starting this year with Javante Williams, like we're looking at the sleeper ADP, you know, back of the second, RB 13. I mean, we just talked about Nick Chubb being drafted at the top of the second, going as the running back nine, and we're all, we all prefer Javante Williams. So the price is not outrageous in your draft. And...

While the reports of the timeshare are kind of all over the place, what is consistent is Giovante is the starter. We weren't at that place heading into the season last year. Melvin Gordon was the leader. Javante Williams kind of had to earn his role and work his way into that 50-50 timeshare. So I think that we're starting in a place of power. The ADP is perfectly fine to me. So I... I'm all in on Giovante Williams at that draft cost. Sequin Barclay at 16. Oh, man. Still just 25 years old. This is the terrifying one. Being drafted higher than where we have him. And I know we've all risen a little bit on the prospects of Saquan Barclay over the off season. But it's tough. It's really tough. The Giants, you know, I just saw a chart yesterday. Mike shared it with the turnover at the top of the division in the NFC East.

Here's how it goes, though. It's like, you know, commanders, Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles, commanders. There's never a Giants name. Someone's missing there. And the Giants have been, you know, there's always promise in the offseason. Head coaching changes, free agent acquisitions. Kenny Galladay was once a heralded free agent acquisition, who is now, as far as I'm concerned, not being drafted anywhere. Yeah. I mean, being drafted late. So I don't want to, you know, live in this world of promise with the Giants without being a realist. But Sequin should get every opportunity. That's a big part of it. The second piece of interest is Brian Dable coming in. Yes. Can they take a step forward on the offensive side of the ball? That's the end of my list. I don't think that there's a compelling case for Daniel Jones being a help in this situation. I don't mind that take at all. And also look at the death chart.

Right now behind him is Matt Berita, which I guess he showed he still has some juice last year for the Buffalo Bills. He's got enough to be like a Devante Booker juice. Yeah, I think at this point, like Booker would be more of a scary backup to me than Matt Berita. And look at the way the season unfolded. When you remember the season in totality for Sequin Barclay, it's, oh, it was an absolute bust of a season. He just keeps getting hurt all the time. It was a slow start. The guy was coming off a catastrophic knee injury. We weren't even sure he would be ready for week one. They ease him in. And then week three, running back 10, week four, running back three against the New Orleans Saints who were a fantastic defense that year. And then the very next game, he has the...

Really unfortunate. He's walking backwards and rolls his ankle on stepping on someone else's foot, very much like a basketball injury. The thing ballooned up immediately. He misses four games. Comes back, still getting great volume, not terrific for fantasy football, but I mean, he's playing on a, on an ankle, on a busted ankle. Like, it's very difficult for these running backs when, if they receive that ankle sprain to come back and be really effective. So, ah. Like I said, he is, Sequin Barclay terrifies me because we are lower than consensus. The guy has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Catch passes. He's a pass catching running back. Should see true three down running back usage. But I, I, Jason, what's his downside?

What is the, what's the floor for Sequin outside of injury? The floor outside of injury is that he is an inefficient running back too. So I think that that's the floor. I think the ceiling exists for him to be a top 10 running back. But we, I always, I've said this for a couple of years when we were, you know, prior to the injuries, when we were dealing with. The lore of his rookie season comes in as a rookie and is the number two running back in fantasy football with Eli Manning catching 91 receptions on 121 targets. He has that ability. But that doesn't mean that he's in the system or going to be used in that way. Now, he's a three down back because of this depth chart. He's only 25 years old. So I do.

Unlike Zeke, where I think, you know, the inefficiency was all the injury and now he should be good. With Sequin, I do think he's healthy. I think he should be back to full strength. But that doesn't mean you're ever going to get what you got that rookie year with Eli Manning, checking it down 121 times. His sophomore year, he was only the running back 10, even though, you know, he was healthy most of that. And four of his best games. came in the four starts with Eli Manning that year. So my point is, I think Sequin is back, is healthy, is a three-down workhorse back. But I don't think he's going to be involved in the passing game like he was in the lore days of Sequin Barclay should be the first or second pick off the board. I view him about where we have him ranked, which is a very good running back, you know, a high-end running back too. But with this offense,

With Daniel Jones, I don't think he is, you know, we say, does he have the, does he have top three upside? And I think a lot of people would say yes, and I would not. Okay, that's fair. We do have a slight update here on Robert Hainesi, the center from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Apparently, he's fine, just a cramp. Oh, my goodness. Well, come on now. Oh, all right. Got carded off. Wow, that's some cramp. He just needed an IV or something. I don't know. I wish I could get carted off if I ever get a cramp on the pickleball courts. Where's my cart, Al? But where do they cart you two on the, just cart you? Just to the side, yeah. Four feet. You betcha. I had a major cramp on the pickleball court, and I've never seen a person less equipped to help me than Al Borland. That man doesn't know what to do to help a man with a cramp. I don't know what to do. What do you do? Do you need me to massage you? I mean, you guys, I need somebody to stretch the calf cramp out.

How does he stretch your calf? He was seeing him at me to straighten his leg out and apparently I was doing it wrong. Yeah. Oh, weird. Okay. I had a therogun. I was ready. Don't tell me I was an equipped. You did run and get the theragon. Thank goodness you had that. Excellent work, Al. Thank you. After like 30 minutes. No, I'm just kidding. Number 17 and 18, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs. I feel like every offseason people want to create a reason to not like David Montgomery. I don't know why, but I like it for his draft price because when he plays, he's great.

You know, he's not a top 12 guy for this season. But he's going to be a very consistent producer for your team. He's going to get a ton of work. And look, to me, it's not much different than Sequin Barclay. Like, you are on a offense that you don't have confidence in, but you're seven spots lower in draft costs for David Montgomery. Like, I don't. I have so, so much more confidence in the Giants' offense and their pieces and their coaching than the current. bears who have no one to throw the ball to. And, you know, you also have a depth chart here where I do think it is David Montgomery. I think he is the, the clear lead. But I think this is a new coaching staff. They've talked up Khalil Herbert. And what we've seen like.

We have the evidence. Khalil Herbert is a very good running back. If they do involve him, then he'll stay involved to a slightly higher degree than what David Montgomery has had the last two years as far as competition. So in this really, really bad offense, if he loses 10% of his workload, doesn't that just kind of take the shine off of, you know, he hasn't been otherworldly? It's just been good. He's outperformed his ADP on the reg. I don't really see it being much different from a talent perspective than Dalvin Cook and Alexander Madison. Alexander Madison gets talked about every offseason for how talented he is. Khalil Herbert is very talented, but at least the evidence we've seen on the field is that Montgomery is superior in every way. And so, again, he's at 17. He's at 16 on my rankings. You have him at 18, so we're not really...

Like the case for David Montgomery is you get to spend maybe a fourth round pick on somebody that's going to get 300 touches in the offense that has been the RB2 in the crucial weeks of the fantasy season two consecutive years. Weeks 13 through 17. He was the RB2 in 2020. He was the RB2 last year in that stretch. So, you know, everyone was afraid when he came back that Khalil Herbert was going to. resume his dominance, and it was not that. It was not that, but that's Matt Nagy, you know, the completely different regime. So the probability is that David Montgomery is the, by far the leader of the timeshare, but I, David Montgomery is not someone I'll be drafting. I have him running back 21 versus his ADP of 18. So it's not that far off, but it's the opportunity cost to me of.

where he is going. Like, I think he's a lower tier running back, and there's high tier wide receivers in my projections there. So it's not, I don't think David Montgomery is useful for a team. I just, I think that the way that the draft is falling, he won't be on my roster. Jacobs, there have been, you know, negative vibes around Josh Jacobs all offseason trade rumors. People want to be in on Zemir White. He didn't get his fifth year option picked up. Correct. He's still just 24 years old and been extremely productive. Looked good again in preseason so far. Is he being undervalued? He's being drafted at RB 22. It's almost a fifth round pick. People are like hands off with Josh Jacobs. Is there opportunity there for upside?

There's definitely opportunity for him to outperform his ADP of running back 22. I mean, he is a young, talented, you know, back that was a first round draft pick and has been good in his career with an offense that should be better. I do think that there's, I mean, he's being drafted as the running back 22. He's never finished that low. He's been the running back 18, 8, and 14. The offense is better. The issue I have is the, and we've talked about this over the last couple weeks, the way that I find myself building my teams in fantasy football this year is I'm getting my running backs out of the way early because I love the wide receivers in this range where he's being drafted. And I prefer my roster.

When I've got the stud-wide receivers in this range and the stud running backs in the first three rounds, or especially the first two rounds range, versus the opposite, where I get those stud-wide receivers, and then I end up with Josh Jacobs, who absolutely could outperform his ADP and should outperform running back 22. The issue is, to what degree? Running back 16? 15? Would you be happy with that? You beat the ADP. He was a, quote, value pick, but I don't see... him being a dominant fantasy football asset the way that wide receivers in this range actually could come through as a dominant wide receiver asset. I do think it's a little deceptive when we go to the arguments about beating ADP because what generally happens when you beat ADP is you have, I mean, every season you're going to have five or six guys drafted ahead of somebody that get hurt. And so beating ADP is a, you factor in almost like survival. Like beating ADP means you just didn't get hurt.

because if everybody ahead of you didn't get hurt, you wouldn't have beat your ADP. Does that make sense? Uh-huh. Sometimes it's just not a meaningful statistic for your fancy team to win. Well, and sometimes you beat your ADP, but still with irrelevance. Like, okay, you finished as the running back 18, you were drafted as the running back 22, but you weren't really happy about that. I remember back in the day, you know, with, uh, Trey Boo-Boo-Tray Burton. Trey Burton. Yeah. He beat his ADP. He finishes like the Titan 7, but it was irrelevant. Yeah, and you're not drafting players to be ADP, ever. You're really not. You're not drafting them to finish at ADP. You're drafting them to be better. Yeah. You're trying to find the player that's going to outperform. So Jacobs does have a little bit of those questions, but again, it's interesting. You know, we're in the category. Sequin, new offensive system. Montgomery, new coaching staff. Jacobs, new coaching staff. So.

There are some questions. It's not only a new coaching staff, but it's a new coaching staff that for years has, it's Josh McDaniels coming from the New England Patriots, and they've been incredibly frustrating with their running back usage for fantasy football. So that's my biggest concern here is they came in, they said we're not going to commit to Josh Jacobs because of the fifth year option. we're going to bring in a whole bunch of running back. Including Brandon Bolden over from the Patriots. And so maybe by the time we get to, you know, the home league are really going. Drafts are really firing at the end of August. Maybe we have some more clarity to this running back room. But as of right now, you got Jacobs, Brandon Boldens, Amir White, Kenyon Drake, like Amir Abdullah, who was being used in that preseason game as well. So.

It will, if they have four active running backs on game day, you're going to be ripping your hair out. Now, unfortunately, as we move forward here, Jason's already got his running back, so he's not going to be able to draft this guy. But Breece Hall comes in at 19, Breeze Lightning. The RB19 is exactly what he's being drafted as. That's where we have him ranked. Jason is the highest at 16. I'm at 21. Mike's at 23. I said quietly in the office the other day to Jason that, you know, I'm coming around on Breece Hall's upside. I still think that it's a tough situation. This is a team that has a gauntlet for the first nine weeks. I think your odds of being happy with Brees Hall. I mean, truly happy with Brees Hall those first nine weeks are your odds are below 50%.

I would say that you are correct that the odds of being happy to come out the gate in the season and be really, really happy being able to rely on Brees Hall are not good. The odds at the end of the season that you look back if you held on to your draft pick of Brees Hall and say, man, what a great draft pick, I think are very, very high. Right now he's being drafted at what I think is near his floor, you know, a low-end RB2. He was... The 16th player on the Jets board, they tried to trade up into the first round. They couldn't, so they were still able to trade up to get him. They wanted him as part of the plan. He checks every single box from an incoming college athlete. He was unfathomably productive. You don't get better production. He was young. He is young. Was and is. Was and is.

One and the same. A little less young now. Yeah, you're not always young. And his athletic profile is off the charts. I love his film. I love his analytics. So there's really, the only thing I don't like about Breeze Hall is that there is a murky situation where we're not 100% sure of his utilization and he's on a poor offense. But rookie running backs do well. Like, rookie running backs are a good bet in fantasy football. On average, there's two rookie running backs every year that finishes the top 24 back. I can't imagine putting someone else ahead of Breece Hall in the rookie running back to finish higher. And oftentimes they are RB1s. I think when I'm looking at Josh Jacobs or Breece Hall, like, okay, there's ways for both to be good. But one of these players, I think, could come in and be a superstar.

That is not without the realm of possibility for me. I don't see Josh Jacobs breaking off 80-yard touchdown runs, and I see Bruce Hall doing that a couple times this year. You're going to be happy whenever those plays happen. So I just love the talent. I'm betting on the player, but there are certainly fears named Zach Wilson. Yeah, my 30 first and offensive plays for game last year with Wilson in there. My pace of play is a big concern and targets to the running back position. You have to like. Michael Carter had a stretch where it was awesome for fantasy football. Zach Wilson was not the one throwing him that ball. When he had those huge target spikes, that was other players like Mike White coming in off of the bench. And now, like you have the second year of Elijah Moore. They spend a real high draft capital pick on Garrett Wilson to be a superstar wide receiver in their hopes. Like, will Zach Wilson?

utilize the running backs in the passing game enough, or is Breece Hall going to be seeing two to three receptions? Like, that's what Michael Carter was doing at the beginning of the year, was Zach Wilson. And Michael Carter still there to absorb some receptions. Yeah, Michael Carter. It's not like they're not going to throw Michael Carter the football. He was great at it. I side more with Jason that, like Michael Carter doesn't freak me out from Breece Hall. Like, I think Breece Hall will be the guy over Michael Carter. essentially week one. Yes, Michael Carter will be involved, but at the beginning of the year, I mean two targets, three, three, three targets, and then you see the big spike because Zach Wilson was out. So that's my biggest concern. Is he one of those quarterbacks that refuses to check down? Yeah, I mean, I think that there's some things being lost in that analysis because Michael Carter was a rookie too.