Fantasy Time Machine + Fantasy Superheroes LIVE in SF

Who's the next tight end who's going to completely break out? Who's the guy that come to the next year's draft? You're like, okay, well, you got the big three or the big four, and then there's everybody else, the way that Kittle is now in that conversation with Ertz and Kelsey. Which is, just to add to it, that's the yearly conversation. You have the haves and have nuts at the tight end position. Right. You've got a few guys you're willing to invest in, and then you've got the rest, and you don't care what you get. So the guy that I think, you know, you talked about what's a quarterback that loves...

tight ends. James Winston loves his tight ends. And O.J. Howard is an absolute beast of a man. Some O.J. Howard owners out there. Look, so here's the thing that I, you know, I don't know if all fantasy football players are familiar with all the different metrics of which combined results matter for which positions. You know, the 40 time is built up for wide receivers, but that's not actually a...

A very sticky. It's fun. It's fun, but it's not actually very predictive. Really, it's the offensive and defensive line. The trenches where the combine results end up being pretty good indicators, right? The only position of fantasy football where combine metrics really matter, well, it makes sense. It's in the trenches, sort of. It's a tight-in position. The tight-ins who are the best, the Antonio Gates, the Kelsey, the Gronk, the Kittle, Greg Olson, Jimmy Graham, and his heyday.

These are like 95th percentile athletes, all of them. They are unbelievable athletes. Those are the guys that break out into the upper, upper tier. She was saying I should have been a tight end. Is that way too? Yes. Yes. There was a 9 in front of the 5th. Right. You said 5th percentile, right? 5th percentile, that's right.

And O.J. Howard is that. He's 99th percentile in almost every metric. He is a giant man who runs faster than everyone else, who has a great agility score. Those, you know, measurables break out in the NFL. And then if you look at like, okay, well, what did he do? You know, rookie year kiddle, 5.7 fantasy points a game.

O.J. Howard, 5.7 fantasy points a game. Ooh, that matches. Ooh, last year, you had Howard go up to 10.4 fantasy points a game. Unfortunately, Howard missed six games, right? That's why we're not, like, completely all in on him, because he finishes the Titan 13, despite not playing for almost half the season. From his 16-game pace was the Titan 5, and that's in his second season. So I think right now he's got a chance to break out, and then think about this.

Adam Humphreys and Deshawn Jackson were replaced by Brassad Perriman and Scotty Miller. Everybody knows Scotty Miller, right? Yeah, Star Trek. So the point is, there are extra. While, you know, look, I love Godwin, I love Mike Evans, they're there. They're going to soak up some of those targets. That's 170 targets. A lot of those will end up going to O.J. Howard. So a little bit of pushback. If I had to question it, you have to pay up a little bit for O.J. Howard.

You don't for Vance and for Mark Andrews. The injuries have been a problem. How concerned are you with that and the draft capital? I think when you're in those middle rounds, which is still where he is. He's not a late round guy, but he's a middle round guy. I don't worry about the injuries that much because I want to win my league. And if I win my league, that means my guys were pretty healthy. I mean, the reality is if you lose a bunch of your players to injury, it doesn't matter. You don't want to finish third? I do not want to. You know, here's the worst thing.

The worst thing in the world is to be Brian Ketran, right? Yes. I don't want to finish second. Like a loser. That's fair. He's here tonight. Where are you at? Yeah, he's here. Okay. All right. We're going to jump back in the time machine. We're going to find somebody else. By the way, we do have a live mailbag coming up. Very soon. San Francisco, get ready. Answering questions live here at the Independent. But let's find the 2019 version.

of Nick Chubb because he was a revelation for fantasy owners. He wasn't drafted. He was free. He was a rookie. He had those elite measurables. There were a lot of factors to the second half. People won their league because of Nick Chub. Yes. And you had bought in Nick Chub early. Yes. And then you saw the transition with that offense in Cleveland. And then you dropped him.

Whatever. Whatever. I got him back. It helped him out. All right. Here's the rookie that I want to talk about. When you're going after these guys, lay in your draft, or maybe you're not actually drafting these players. You're just keeping an eye and waiting a few weeks before you pounce because you know that the change is going to come. Similar to Nick Chubb. You could feel the transition happening for Cleveland because Carlos Hyde, he was working out for fantasy because he was...

lucking into touchdowns, but he was not getting the job done. They ended up trading him throughout the middle of the seasons. You want to find ambiguous running back fields where you're not really sure who exactly is the starter. And the most ambiguous backfield in the league, in my opinion, belongs to the Buffalo Bills. Is it Shady McCoy? Is it Frank Gore? They invested in a rookie, and his name is Devin Singletary. Here's the thing.

Oh, a couple people like him. All right. The running back cliff, it is absolutely a real thing for mortal men. Maybe someone on this roster is immortal. We're not exactly sure yet. In Frank Gore. Hold on. Frank Gore did just turn 27 years old. He did. Yesterday. Who did? But here's the thing. People talk about the running back cliff all the time. Is it...

is it in touches. We had an old friend of this show. Joseph Juan had a very compelling argument on number fire. He talked about its 1,800 carries. Another great friend of the show, Mike Taglier, talked about the age cliff, generally speaking, is 29. So let's take a look at the running backs on the Buffalo bills. Shady McCoy. Do we have to? Yeah, I'll make a brief. I'll make a brief. Shady McCoy, 31, older than 29.

2,346 carries. That's a lot. Well over the cliff. And here's what happened. The last two years of Shady McCoy's career, the lowest yards per carry in his career, including last year's dramatic plummet to 3.2. Yeah, that's Thelman Louise off the cliff. Yes, he's done. And this is the final year of his contract. Frank Gore, who's in a one-year contract, he did have a little bit of a resurgence. But when, hold on, when he was the workhorse.

When he was the workhorse for Indianapolis, you saw his yards per carry sub 4.0 all three of those years. Graham Barfield, who does a sensational look at rookie running backs called Yards Created. Devin Singletary ran behind the worst offensive line in this running back class, yet he still produced over 125 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns per game over his final two years of his college career.

I think that Devon Singletary could just be that guy. I'm not necessarily drafting him unless it's a very deep way. That's what I wanted to ask you. Is this somebody that you've just got like your monocle glancing at him? You're not drafting him? Yes. You're just peering over. I dress up as the monopoly man. Yes. And I take a look and I say pretty soon, Devon Singletary. Pretty soon I'll put you on my roster. Around week three or week four, I'm going to take a look at what's happening with the Buffalo Bills and then I'm going to stash Devon Singleton. Yeah, we've talked a little bit about the bills.

And just how I think over the second half of the year, somebody's going to own the backfield. They want to run the football. They run it more than almost anybody in football. But right now you're staring down Gore, McCoy, Yeldin, and Singletary, and it's not fun. No. You want to go or you'll meet him? Sure. No, I'm going to hop in here because I, you know, this is a guy I've talked about a lot. I really like where he landed. I think he's a talented, well-rounded back. He fits the system.

And I think he's going to succeed this year. It's the rookie for the New England Patriots. Carry on Johnson not a rookie. It's Damien Harris. Great Scott. Yes. Great Scott. Yes. Thank you, Doc. Where did that come from? So here's the thing about Damien Harris, right? Let me ask you guys a question. Nick Chubb, talented back, right? But why did he break out? What happened? Opportunity.

Because Carlos Hyde was traded away. Oh, Carlos Hyde was traded away. So you started with a team where you've got a player, and then that player was gone. They didn't have anybody else to just sign off of, you know, free agency or in the draft because it was midseason. That player was gone. Chubb had the entire backfield to himself. I think that the odds are high, that Sony Michelle misses.

Games or more than just a few games and has another name. Games or games or games. What's the plural of games? Gameses. I think Sony could miss several gameses. How many games is? Up to 16 gameses. Look, Sony Michelle tore his ACL in high school, okay?

Then he missed time at Georgia again with a broken shoulder, an injured ankle, and yet another knee injury. Then look, he was drafted last year, and he had to have a procedure in August that caused him to miss the preseason. Miss week one. Then after week seven, with the bears, he had another knee injury.

Thank goodness he's passed all of that, right? Yeah. Oh, wait, he just had his knee scoped again? Yeah, he did. The degenerative knee that is arthroscopic and, like, procedure every day. I think he meant arthritic. Arthritic? Huh? Dr. Jason is on it. But the, I mean, look, when you arthroscopize your knee, you're going to miss some games this. Here's, here's what I do. I'm fully convinced. Thank you. I knew. Look, this is ironclad, lock. Yeah.

They're with me. This is for me. Yes. Yes. Thank you. But look, I think most people trust the mind of Bill Belichick. That's what it is for me. You made all the case before he left college, and I'm like, well, Bill Belichick drafted him in the first round. So he must be right. Right. And then on day two the next year, he's like, I think I'm going to need a running back. So he took Damien Harris.

Saying, like, I think he's concerned about the running back position for his team. And look, there's a lot of opportunity here because he's actually well-rounded. Damian Harris is a good, well-rounded player. He's much more like Rex Burkett. He can catch the ball. And look at what Rex Burkhead did when he wasn't injured. So, like, he finally got back healthy for the playoffs. He had three touchdowns in the first two playoff games, and that was with Sony balling out. So I think Damien Harris is good, but the opportunity to have Sony Michelle...

exit the team via injury and have a true workhorse back for a great offense that wants to run the ball and we'll have tons of goal line opportunities. And Damien Harris is free. He's not drafted in some leagues. Yeah, I know you love him. I know you love him. Maybe I want Michelle to have all that opportunity so we can see what we saw in the playoffs. And it's hard for me to bank on like an injury. But when you talk about at least having a history that could lend itself that direction, now you're not drafting him.

No, I am drafting. You are drafted. To see the first few weeks of the season. Unlike Singletary, where I don't think any of us see a week one barring shady. No. He's not getting started. I think there is a world where Damien Harris, when Sony is there, performs well and is a flex worthy candidate. This next player that I'm going to bring up is a guy I take with the last pick in every draft I'm in, pretty much. Yes, this is true. And look, the world out here, it's focused.

on the return of Jerich McKinnon and the addition of Tevin Coleman. Now, I want to take a serious poll here because we're in the Bay Area. You get to cheer for either McKinnon or Coleman. Just Niners fans. McKinnon or Coleman? I just want to see who you think is going to do better in this office. So if you're a McKinnon person, I want to hear you clap. Clap if you're a McKinn in person. That's a smattering. It's light. It's a little dismal.

I want to hear you clap if you're a Tevin Coleman person. Okay, so that's more confidence. Our scientific poll is complete. I like new things, right? We like new shiny things. Now, listen, I'm bringing up the last pick in every one of my drafts because it's Matt Breedah. Yeah. Now, let me ask this, because this is just, this is like taking candy from a baby here. Do you think Kyle Shanahan is stupid? No. No.

And the reason that I believe Breed is the candidate to be the next Nick Chub, right? That next second half dynamo win your league is because I don't think Kyle Shanahan is stupid. And he's a smart head coach. And last season, Breita ran for 5.5 a carry. In his career, which is it 20, 30, 40, 100 carries? No, it's 258 carries. He's a five-a-carry guy in his career through two seasons. He has, he's run for 10.