Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early RB Rankings Part 2 & Mailbag

O'Brien. For Foster, right? Yeah, but that's what I'm moving that over, not saying that he's going to get that much. Miller will have that many carries, but I'm saying, O'Brien, we'll give it to one guy. If you watched him in hard knocks, it was great to see that behind the scenes of O'Brien talking to all his staff and talking to Hoyer, he's saying, look, if you're concerned at all, if something looks weird, just give the ball to Foster.

Just please give the ball to Aaron Foster. And I believe that's exactly how he will feel with Lamar Miller. Now, what's interesting about Lamar Miller? Three, only three of the top 14 running backs in standard last year. So they finished the top 14 had under 200 carries. Only three. David Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Lamar Miller. And Miller was at, what, 194?

Was that, yes. 194. And he was very productive. He's been very productive throughout his entire career. The question has always been workload. Why won't they give it to him? We've seen multiple coaching staffs come in and say, we don't think he can handle it. At least that's what their play calling said. But the Texans are going all in. They gave him the money like they're going to give him the ball that many times. And he had the best catching.

season of his career and that's that's crucial we've we've kind of talked about that a lot with our top running backs is you want a guy who's going to catch the ball at least a good amount because it's for a guy to be just in the in on first two downs it's very difficult for you to become a running back one and obviously uh brock osweiler coming into that offense you have an offense that is traditionally been run heavy they control the ball

They try not to make mistakes and they have a defense that was pretty much the most dominant defense other than maybe Denver towards the end of the year. They were, by many metrics, better than Denver at the end of the year. So the arguments are there. I have him at four. Okay. And the reason being is I have him moving that reception total to him from 47 receptions up into the 60s, into the low 60s, high 50s. And that's just from workload being on the field more. They passed to the running back a lot. That's something we saw with Aaron Foster.

All that being said, if I wanted to acknowledge a potential problem with Amar Miller, it would be goal line. Is there a reason that they would go away from him in the goal line because he's so predominant on third down. He should be the guy out there all the time. So does Alfred Blue or somebody else become? I will calm your worries. By just saying the name. Alfred Blue. They like him. Well, they like.

They like him like the Packers like James Starks where you roll your eyes when you've got Eddie Lacey and you're kind of like... They like him the same way like I say hi and I'm friendly to the post guy. I'm going to be cordial. We're going to have a nice, you know, small, limited, limited interactions and we're going to be friendly. That's the Texans with Alfred Blue. I don't know. Sometimes I see these guys that like... So Blue has to come in year after year for Foster and...

and grind out 25 carries at 1.2 per carry. And they just pat them on the back and they say, you know, you go get the touchdowns a few times. That would be the one worry. Now, Lamar unlimited carries had eight touchdowns last year. It's a hard to predict, you know, area. What do I have them projected for here? I have him at eight this year. So I don't think I'm being outlandish. I think it's the difference maker that makes Lev Bell so high, David Johnson so high, and Jamal Charles. It applies to Lamar Miller. And so...

What it does say by having him in number seven is that he is ahead of several names that we're about to get into. Yes. And so we can compare, contrast. Let's go to number eight. Everybody's favorite number one running by. Devonsa Freeman. Yeah. Look, you've had moments. You and Devanta are a little bit more familiar with each other than the postman. I would say, yeah, my connection with Freeman is not as friendly as my local post carrier.

Look, man, he's still high on my list. I have him at number 10, so I'm not completely writing him off. But the deal... You have an interesting stat here about him. So here's my problem with Devante Freeman. He stinks. Oh, wait, that was last year. Yeah, that was, I won't go that bold. However, weeks three through six. So Coleman was the starter.

Weeks 1 and week 2, broke the rib, Freeman came in. Weeks 3 through 6, he put up 50% of his fantasy production. 50% in four games. Which that was great. That was awesome. If you had them for those four games. However, there's a lot of season left there for half of your fantasy production to come in those games.

You've heard me talk a good bit about guys how they faced against a base defense. Devante Freeman had a 3.6 yard per carry average against base defense. Tevin Coleman, four and a half yards. To me, he just, Coleman's a second round pick. He had the starting job coming into the year last year. I have to think he gets more involved. I don't see any way that Freeman has the workload that he had last year.

With that said, he will be the past catcher. He was very solid in that role. So the volume will be there for him to still be an RB1. But I don't think you're seeing top five numbers like you did last year. Where do you have him in your rankings? 10. It's 10 and a half point PPR. Okay. And I have him. Let me see here.

I've got him at nine. So we both have him a little bit lower than where he is in the consensus, which by process of elimination tells you that Jason is obviously very high on Devante Freeman. And he is. I will say this, though. It is difficult to, and again, nobody's really, you know, when you got a guy ranked seven, you're not dogging him, right? Like, he's a good player, and he will be a fantasy relevant player. He's eight for us. So.

Here's what I do say. Just because he put up 50% of his production in those three weeks, I don't want to hold that against him. It shows me that he's a guy who can put up incredible numbers when the chips fall the way they should. That offense was, you know, if you looked at Matt Ryan in the Shanhan offense year one, I think there was a blurb today that he's holding like a player's only passing camp or something to try to. I mean, he's got to do something to get that offense going, and they added Muhammad Sunu. Maybe that'll help.

healthy Tevin Coleman, a non-fumbling Tevin Coleman would help, an offensive line would help. A lot of things would help. All that being said, you know, Freeman, I'm not going to really, you know, that 3.6 versus the 4.6 with Coleman. Coleman had limited work. Yeah, no, it's a smaller workload. I'm just going to, I'm not going to count that against Freeman too much. I'm just going to give him a pretty clean slate to come in. And, you know, if he did what he did from week seven on, we'd still be saying he's worthy of a pick in the top 10. Yes. Right? Is running back? So you're saying it like a top.

Even if you took his week seven through the end of the year, that was what we expect from him every week. You'd still be seeing workload and pass numbers. I didn't calculate that out. Well, he had 73 receptions last year. And that's really where you just need to, even if you don't like any other number, just go sit inside of that number and just smile. Because that's great, half point, full point. That's how Danny Woodhead is an RB1 every year when he plays 16 games. Yeah, I mean, the passing game is huge, especially.

because there's not a lot of workload backs. Yeah. You know, heavy workload back. So now you're looking for guys that do both things. So where are we at? Number nine. Number nine. And that's Doug Martin. He's back. Best case scenario for Doug Martin was staying in Tampa for a fantasy. Would you agree? Maybe. Other than Dallas. I'll throw the Dallas out. So you would have been higher on him in Dallas. I would have. Yeah, because he would have been paid. So.

You'd been going in expecting workload numbers there and then just the offensive line. But I like him. I like him a lot. He's my number five overall and standard. He's six in PPR for me. He represents a baseline that I feels pretty safe. Yeah. In Tampa, you've got an offense that is, you know, you're maintaining. You've got cutter that came up to the head coach. Winston's maturing.

I don't, you know, you see some stability, even though the team isn't elite. You know, they still, they still competed last year. Martin put up huge numbers. So I've got him projected for that, you know, 13, 1400 yard range again. What it was not somebody catching a ton of passes. Yeah, because Charles Sims. Maybe 2530. Charles Sims, his backup is a great, great third down guy. Charles Sims will be on a lot of my teams. I think he's going to be a running back. You can get very late.

who, if something happens to Martin, Charles Sims will be a fantasy beast. What I really liked about Martin, when you're breaking down his numbers, he was a top five fantasy producer, the only one of the top five without double-digit touchdowns. Which is great. And as we say, touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict. There's so much variance year to year of, did they go down at the one and they get to punch it in?

Just a whole bunch of complicated factors go into a guy like Lashon McCoy having a bazillion touchdowns to go into three the very next year. These things happen. But yardage tends to remain pretty consistent. And that 288 carries. I mean, he had no week without double-digit carries. He had the ability he went out in week against Philadelphia in Philadelphia, 27 for 235. So he can give you that monster week. He, you know.

He had six touchdowns and put up a top five season. So even if his, you know, his average went down or the carries went down a little bit, maybe Winston's throwing a little more in year two. I'm not that worried because, you know, what does that mean? That means maybe the offense is moving through the passing game. He gets another goal line carry to make up for a few of the carries that he, you know, would have had. I like him. I just think he's really a foundational back. I would have no problem with somebody who said, you know, I'd rather take Doug Martin than I would, Jamal Charles.

I'd rather take Doug Martin than I would David Johnson. What's weird for me is, I mean, watching and playing, digging through the numbers, through the metrics, it's still difficult for me to get on board with him as a top five type of guy. Maybe it's just the burn. It could be the burn wounds from the back-to-back.

horrific years where he killed you. He was a bust as a second round pick, and then he was a bust as a fourth, fifth round pick. So maybe it's that. Maybe I'm letting that influence me too heavily, but it's just, for me to put him up in that top five, I just can't do it. Okay. All right. And I have him right there at five. So I'm a big fan of Doug Martin this year. I'll have him on probably a few of my teams for sure.

All right, so let's talk about number 10-11. There has been some flip-flopping on these two guys in our rankings. I'm sure there will be more change. Shady McCoy. If you're in the club, keep your guard up. Shady's coming. Keep your guard up because he's coming for your face. Oh, come on. Oh, come on. LaShawn McCoy. Let's talk about the player. Not the person. The player is, at times, I mean, you made a trade in the middle of the season to acquire LaShaul McCoy last year.

LaShaul McCoy gives you heavy workload numbers. Yeah. He is healthy. That is the problem. Yeah, well, he's, I mean, he's been a relatively healthy guy, and we knew. Oh, I mean, that's, what? That just doesn't ring true to me. You, before this year, he was coming off back-to-back 300-carry seasons. Yeah, but we are coming off this year.

Yeah, but I'm just saying. And his was... I mean, he's got one year in Buffalo, and I just seemed like he was on the injury report every single week. When he played, he played hurt. You got Carlos Williams behind him. The nice thing about LaShawn McCoy's injury is you knew coming into the season that there was going to be a problem because he had the severe tear of his hamstring right at the beginning, so he missed time. And you knew what you were in for with LaShawn McCoy. If a player severely tears their hamstring...

in training camp. It's going to be a problem all year. It's going to be a long term. All year. Well, he had the knee issue, too, though. But I feel like that's all connected. Okay. Once you hurt your hamstring, everything is downhill from there. The knee bones connected to. So here's the thing about McCoy. He did receive over 200 carries in 12 games last year. He obviously catches the ball. He had 30 receptions. I would expect, you know, when you saw him on the field healthy, they threw him the ball a lot.

What are we expecting from the Carlos Williams effect on LaShell McCoy? How do you draft McCoy? Do you have to spend? I mean, Williams is going to go too high for my taste probably. Maybe. He's going to be one of those. He's going to be an expensive handcuff. But could he's not just a handcuff to me? See that, but then you get into a whole other debate. Like, so you're going to own both?