AFC West Breakdown + Henry Gets Paid - Fantasy Football Podcast

absolute favorite target in a two-quarterback league as my third quarterback. That is not very nice. But it kind of is because I believe Derek Carr can actually be really, really good this year, but I worry about Marcus Mariotta. You know, it's like Gardner Minchu, he can suck all season. They got nobody else to go to. If Derek Carr and the Raiders are struggling. I dare you say that about Mike Glennon.

Exactly. If Derek Carr and the Raiders are struggling, there will be clamoring for their $15 million backup quarterback. But I think he's good. And if they can win enough games and move forward offensively, he's one of those guys that's there in the group of the third quarterbacks being drafted in two quarterback leagues and you want a third quarterback. He's the guy I target.

All right, let's talk about Darren Waller before we move on from this team. Last year, big time season, Mike says the offense is still going to go through him. Draft costs, six-round pick, tight-in five. Are you comfortable? I'm okay with it, yeah. You want to know what makes me uncomfortable and it's really dumb? Itchy powder. Yes, it's super dumb. Why did anybody invent this thing? It's the worst.

No, it's the fact that one of my biggest fears is the history we have over the last couple years of these round five, six tight ends. Every time that there's the round five, round six tight ends seems like the next guy after all the good guys, they always bust.

And so I kind of am fearful that way because you can see how it happens. I mean, they had no wide receivers to throw the ball to. Hunter Renfro didn't get started early. Then he got injured. Then they add Nelson Agilor. They add, they get Tyrol Williams back, you know, from his injury. They add Henry Ruggs. They add Brian Edwards. There is a very clear and obvious path for the team to not run through Darren Waller. Sure.

I still have him as my fifth tight end past those four aforementioned, you know, much clearer, higher tier tight ends. But I pass him in every draft that I've, I've been in plenty of drafts where it's like, oh, I need a tight end. Darren Waller's highest on my board. He's available here. Nope. I like other running backs and wide receivers. I will say it now last year is kind of proof that this doesn't always happen. But frequently those middle.

tier tight ends, the middle round guys, you're going for the older tight end who just, like they feel like they're on the way down. But Darren Waller is still young and athletic enough, just got the bag of, I think that he's still safe. All right. Anything else you want to talk about with the Las Vegas Raiders? Shall we move on? All right. Wrapping it up with the Los Angeles Chargers last year, 5 and 11.

Season did not go the way that they thought it would go. Philip Rivers is now gone. Anthony Lynn, head coach, still around. I like Anthony Lynn. They've had some... Yeah, I think he's a good coach. Tough luck over the last couple of years. No more Rivers, no more Gordon, though. Those were kind of the fantasy foundation of that team for the past five years. I know, and then they, like, upgraded at the running back position. Addition by subtraction, right? You're talking about Austin Echler? That's what I'm talking about.

Yeah, so Austin Echler is the starting running back of this team, a team that now has a new quarterback that may or may not be Tyrod Taylor for a number of weeks, that may be Justin Herbert, who was drafted with the six overall pick. They add Joshua Kelly in the fourth round, a running back that will be complimentary to Austin Echler and to Justin Jackson. And I think this is one of those teams with a million question marks, because much like Denver, where the office is going to go.

as far as Drew Locke can take them. You know, you need to have some level of confidence in who's throwing the football to make bets on players like Keenan Allen or Austin Echler in the receiving totals he had from last season or even Mike Williams. You know, somebody whose name isn't brought up at all. Last year, his name's brought up all the time because he's coming off a double-digit touchdown season and Philip Rivers is there. I don't know if we said Mike Williams' name on the show.

it's tough to want the number two wide receiver when you don't want the number one wide receiver. And that's not to say. That's a very fair point. That's not to say that I wouldn't want Keenan Allen on my team. He's a phenomenal receiver, but we've brought up the point before. When great receivers have a lull in their quarterbacks, you know, we saw it with fits. All of a sudden, they don't have a great fantasy output. You know, you're talking about a wide receiver too. And the passing volume is the number one thing that scares the heck out of me with the chargers.

I project for them to be a low passing volume team. I have from the get-go. I think Tyrod Taylor is going to start at least half the season. And, you know, keep in mind, Anthony Lynn, he's the head coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills with Tyrod Taylor. They've ran together. They've installed an NFL system with those two together. And it was back-to-back years.

of bottom of the barrel passing offense. And they were fine. They had a good defense. They weren't an atrocious team. It worked for the NFL, but it didn't work for fantasy. So you love Austin Echler. That's my problem with Austin Echler is because his value comes much more as a receiver than as a runner. He was fine as a runner. But if they end up having, you know, Justin Jackson.

helping carry that workload. Joshua Kelly, the rookie they brought in, and all of a sudden, Austin Echler's passing, receiving work goes way down. That's, that's a scary proposition. Let's not re-discuss Austin Echler. We talked about it. But I have some good points. Free agent frenzy and early breakouts and bus. It's too bad. I looked something I was different up because I wanted to bring this up to Jason. This is new. This is new. This is new. I'm trying to sway Jason. Go ahead. Go ahead.

Got my listening cap on. All right. First off, let's talk about Austin Echler on the ground. Those first four games from Melvin Gordon wasn't there. He averaged 14 attempts a game. That's way over 200 carries. Not new. Go on. No, I'm just saying, I want to combo with that with why do we like, you know, like Mark Ingram so much? Why do we talk so much about running backs who have very mobile rushing quarterbacks and you're not giving the same benefit of the doubt?

to Austin Echler. Taylor is very mobile. He will open things up for Austin Echler on the ground. I haven't heard of make that exact same argument for him. And then I wanted to talk about the passing volume. The last year with Taylor and Buffalo, McCoy had 77 targets in that season. He ran 326 routes that year. Last year, Austin Echler ran 362 routes, and he was competing for time.

with Melvin Gordon. He wasn't the number one running back on the team the whole entire season. He's going to run a bunch of routes. I don't, yes, the targets are going to come down, but I think that you're the gloom and doom of, well, his receiving work is just cut in half at the best case scenario. I think that's not, I don't think that's the right way to look at what Austin Eckler brings the team. I think it's intellectually dishonest to compare Austin Eckler.

with the full workhorse Shady, who was the clear bell cow for their team. If you think Austin Eccler is going to inherit a bell cow role here, and Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelly aren't going to be involved, then it is absolutely a fair comp. He could dominate the same way that Shady did. I think he has the talent to do it. I do not think for one second he's going to be a bell cow back that's out there for, you know, soaking up the rushing, the receiving, just everything that the offense is doing.

Let me throw one more thing in as just a reminder. The reason I like Austin Echler is because even if you're right about some of it coming down, none of us are making the argument he will finish as the running back six. The running back six is where Austin Echler finished last season when he did have Melvin Gordon there for 12 of 16 games. So it's easier for me to rationalize a position as a fringe running back one.

when it means a reduction in his fantasy output as part of that. So that's why I'm kind of more on board. It will be different, but they will still have to run an offense. And Austin Echler was paid this offseason. Austin Echler is fundamental to the offense. Whether that translates to RB10, RB20, will be contingent on how much passing work he gets, most likely.

I haven't met the RB17, which means I think he's going to be a very valuable, useful fantasy player. You say RB 70? 17. So, you know, but where he's being drafted, he won't ever end up on my team because he's being drafted, you know, as a back in one early, early two. And to speak to Mike's point about the Baltimore Ravens, they ran 596 times last year. You look at the Arizona Cardinals in the pace of play. I was talking about.

We like running backs who are playing with running. We like running, we like running backs who play with running quarterback because it just naturally helps them. Yes, it helps their efficiency. But the efficiency still has to look at volume two. They start the season against Cincinnati, which means that if you did take a gamble on a, you know, a first week start at quarterback with the Tyrod Taylor, it might not be the end of the world, two quarterback league. Look at those week one or two matchups. I mean.

opportunity is there. Other players on this team worth discussing, you know, I'm lower on Keenan Allen, that's for sure. Go ahead, Mike. I say Keenan Allen is so hard because I think that the transition of quarterback affects him more than Austin Echler. And betting against Keenan Allen is, it hurts inside. Like it hurts my heart because Keenan Allen is great. Keenan Allen is a true number one.

wide receiver. If you look at the reception metrics he puts up in every single year, he is an elite route runner. The way that you talk about like Stefan Diggs, Keenan Allen gets open all the time. But I agree that there will be some volume differences with Taylor running things. So it has, it has concerns for what he can do. He's already, you know, an up and down fantasy wide receiver.

But when he is on a hot streak, he wins you multiple weeks in a row by himself. I feel like this is the perfect show to illustrate the fact that quarterback transition makes a humongous difference with what Drew Locke and Cortland. We all believe Cortland Sutton is a monster. I believe Larry Fitzgerald is pretty good. He had three different years with quarterback transitions where he disappeared during his prime from a fantasy perspective. You know, he went from monstrous seasons to, you know, 600-something yards, 800 yards.

You have to make a bet. And there are times when players like DeAndre Hopkins have weighted through multiple crappy quarterbacks and been fine. But then there's been situations like Larry Fitzgerald when they haven't. And because of the volume mixed into, like I don't think Taylor's going to be throwing the ball as well as Philip Rivers throws the football. And because they think a more conservative offensive mindset is going to hurt him a little bit.

I'm just out on Allen compared to draft price, but everybody has to make that decision because the talent is obviously tremendous. The wide receiver 22 right now. Yeah, the one point I wanted to make for Mike Williams is that Taylor, Taylor throws the ball deep. The volume is down, but in his time at Buffalo, he was always in the top half when it came to percentage of throws that are going deep. In his first year,

He threw it at a deep rate of 18.2%. I mean, he had Sammy Watkins there. But I at least wanted to bring up Mike Williams, who according to reception, he has the ninth best success rate on nine routes. I mean, you got a wide receiver who's good at running a nine, who is elite at contested catch. You pair that with a quarterback who does like to throw the ball deep. I think Mike Williams might be undervalued. He's 25 years old, 6-4-220.

First round NFL draft pick. He's great. I don't think anybody, I would want Mike Williams on my NFL team. That's for sure. For fantasy, I think maybe you bring up a good point here, Mike, when it comes for, when you're at those later guys, Mike Williams fits the bill for a best ball. Because if you're going to get those big, deep, you know, if his passing volume comes down, but he's going to have some long bomb touchdowns, that's good when you don't have to make the decision.

And he doesn't. He's never depended on volume. I mean, 49 catches last year for 1,000 yards. It's 20 per catch. Do it on three or four plays a game. My goodness. What? Hold on. Is that really the line that he put up? Yeah. 20 yards of reception? Yeah. I'm not sure. Brooks, do you know if that's number one in football? I think it's got to be. Yeah, it is. Yeah. That's number one on the season. What's A.J. Brown? Not 20.4, but I thought he was in the 20s. Hmm.