AFC West Breakdown + Henry Gets Paid - Fantasy Football Podcast

kind of arguments for why Drew Locke can have more success on the field. Yes, they were four and one. Yes, over his five starts, he posted six and a half yards per pass attempt in just an 89 rating. Drew Locke was not good for fantasy, for himself or his, for the Cortland Sutton's of the world. I believe there was one good game in there.

Yeah, one out of five is bad for fantasy. Yeah, here's his finishes. QB 22, QB8, QB 31, QB 20, QB 21, and submarine Cortland Sutton. Over that time span, though, like three of those five matchups were top eight matchups for fantasy quarterbacks. So him not coming through in the majority of those. You're talking about easy, easy schedule. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. And then.

He is the centerpiece of everything that you put together going forward. You look at this team. They added weapons. They added, you know, Jerry Judy, K.J. Hamler, Melvin Gordon, Glasgow, center. I mean, they have really done everything in their power to put together a really good offense to match what I think is a pretty good defense. And none of it matters if Drew Locke isn't good.

The whole question is, is Drew Locke actually really good? Can he take that step forward and make those other weapons work or not? He won games, but it was an easy schedule. He wasn't that good. He was bad at throwing the ball accurately, you know, past 10 yards. I'm not a, I'm not confident in Drew Locke as, you know, as a top.

I am not either. And you have to make that decision when you invest in all of the weapons around him. Cortland Sutton fared best with Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco was far more accurate than Drew Locke was. Lock finished at 64%. That's still not bad. It's just a matter of where you look at where they're throwing 0 to 5 yards, 0 to 10 yards. I'll say this for Sutton. Yes, the production was down.

But at least he was still the number one target. He was getting eight targets a game with Drew Locke. His target share in those games was actually slightly up compared to the rest of the season. So the opportunity for Sutton is still, was still there, I should say. And you got to project that moving forward. You got to project a move of luck to being better or locked to being better than because, you know.

those target numbers combined with the fact he ended up at wide receiver 38 or lower in four of the five games with Locke. Right. Shows you, I guess, what concerns exist for any situation with a quarterback transition. I mean, last year, Sutton was wide receiver 13 with Joe Flacka on the season. So any of these teams facing, you know, just to make it more global, any of the teams facing quarterback transitions, this shows you that you can make a transition, still win football games.

I mean, the winning argument's tough because we're in a fantasy game. And the Pittsburgh Steelers won games last year. Don't care. And they did not make, you know, Duck Hodges the future of the team. And I don't want to, you know, when Drewlock is throwing to Deshaun Hamilton and he's, you know, he does not have all these weapons that they brought in, that's going to be a problem too. And he's got a whole other year to mature. This is not to, you know, don't draft a Bronco.

I'm just kind of concerned, and my projection for Locke has him struggling. So wide receiver 19 is where Sutton is being drafted. That's fourth round. I don't think I want to do that. I don't want to do that. He certainly has the ability, and with the question mark and Locke could crush that. He could take a step forward, and Locke takes a step forward, and you end up having a good draft pick there. But, you know, I think are all three of us kind of

I'm slightly lower than ADP on Sutton. I'm at 23. Are all three of us, I know Andy and I, based on what we just said, are not believers in Locke as a true franchise quarterback. Where do you stand, Mike? I don't think I feel strongly one way or the other. It was five games right at the end of the season. I'm not taking a bunch from that sample size, so I just don't know. He's surrounded.

Like what we're saying of if Drew Locke fails, it's Drew Locke's fault. The last month. It's not the people around him. Yeah, exactly. The last month with Drew Locke, Cortland Sutton was the wide receiver 48. That's lower. That's low. That's below wide receiver 19 where he's being drafted. Yeah. And we've seen players go one direction or the other in that sophomore year that next opportunity, we've seen golf make.

huge improvements. One of the big changes for this team is making the decision to bring in Pat Schumer at offensive coordinator, which I think is a good move. It was the head coach in New York for a couple of years. I think he's a good addition. I like him. I thought he got a rough situation in New York, and he might be just one of those guys that's better as a coordinator, aka Norv Turner type of coach. But you give Pat Schumer some weapons. You give Drew Locke an off season.

I mean, I literally, I look at what Denver has done in the offseason. I go, this is just a home run across. I love, I love the moves they've made, and it's 100% now on lock to step it up. Schumer's going to be good for him, though. He's going to scheme things pass when he should pass. And he'll be good for Melvin Gordon. Yes. Like Schumer running games historically are great. So.

To me, that's the glimmer of hope for me for Melvin Gordon, because I'm not nearly as bullish on his fantasy prospects as you guys. I see it. I see the path. The opportunity should be there since he was given the money. It's a little... I thought the move was interesting when you have Philip Lindsay, who's having success for your team that you go out and you dethrone him as the starter with Melvin Gordon. But...

But I at least see the path. I don't really want to draft Melvin Gordon. Who's the goal line back in Denver? Melvin Gordon. Who's the passing down back in Denver? Melvin Gordon. That's the reason I at least like him to be. Let me ask you this, Mike. Melvin Gordon or David Montgomery. Oh, that's a great question. That's a very good question. And they are in fact, back to back in my rankings. I have David Montgomery one spot ahead of him.

I would rather have Melvin Gordon. I think he's actually proven it in the NFL while maybe he isn't the efficiency leader over his career. He's gotten the job done. He's great around the goal line. He's great as a pass catcher. And he's paid a lot more money. Two revenge games this year? Yeah. Quick hits right here before he closed his team out. The Chargers also will want their revenge. Yeah. And they've got the defense to give it. Yes. Philip Lindsay, any value?

Oh, man. Only is a backup. Yeah, not really. No, fantastic breakout opportunity. He is on that list. By or sell. He's on the list that we bring up for Chris Herndon of since 2000. You have a very small handful of tight ends who actually hit 500 yards in their rookie year. He did it. But no, I'm not, I'm not in on Fant, not this year. Okay. Las Vegas Raiders.

The one name we didn't talk about, and I just want to mention because with all this talk about all the weapons, Jerry Judy is exceptional. He is... You love Jerry Judy. I do love Jerry Judy. I think he's one of those guys that, you know, could make Locke better than Locke. And so he's one of those late dart throws that I would take my shot on that if Locke...

turns out okay because I just, when I watched this tape, he's the only guy that I've ever been able to look at and say, oh, he's, he's kind of got O'Dell Beckham in him, which, you know, was just a crazy special talent. All right, let's talk about the Raiders. I don't know where to go exactly. This is a different confusing team because you can make, I think, simultaneous arguments that this team would love to move on from Derek Carr at a moment's notice.

You can also make statistical arguments that Derek Carr had the best season of his career last year. Career highs in completion rate. The team was pretty decent. Ninth in passing yards per game. They were competing on a regular basis in John Gruden's system. They also didn't target the wide receiver at all. They didn't have wide receivers to target was part of the problem. But they were like 30th in the NFL in terms of targeting the wide receiver position. He had Darren Waller go crazy.

Hunter Renfro was hurt for a lot of the year. Tyrell Williams was hurt. This offseason they draft Henry Ruggs with the first wide receiver pick of the entire NFL draft. Give me kind of the high level drill down of how you view this offense. I'll jump in. I still think that the offense runs through Darren Waller. We have 28 times that a tight end has had 1100 or more yards.

If you want to talk to the regression of Darren Waller, maybe his targets come down. But last year, 1,100 yards. We've only seen that 28 times. And of that group, Waller is tied for the lowest touchdowns of that group. Because what do you have three? Three touchdowns. And 75% of those players, those tight ends, had at least seven touchdowns. So you have...

You have touchdown positive regression that is coming for Darren Waller. Even if you think that the volume is going to come down, I still think he is the key cog of the offense that will make things go. He's the short route guy. I know the slot machine is there holding things down. But Waller is the one who opens it up for the Henry Ruggs draft pick to me. It does Henry Ruggs have fantasy value this year?

I think so. I think he will. The dude, if you want to look at Tyreek and go, the guy is just so fast. You guys, you have to say that about Henry Ruggs. That dude is just so fast that I think he will have value. Yeah, he certainly has a skill set that works in the NFL.

I just worry that it's not going to be a high volume usage with what I saw in college, the way he was, you know, what, the wide receiver two or three for his own team, you know, the way that you project the Raiders offense forward, like you said, things kind of running through the tight end, which is what Gruden said, and then that's what they did last year. I think at best ball, he's got great potential because if you're telling me,

Name a couple players who could have three 70-yard touchdowns this year. Ruggs is on the short list, but making the start in your redraft or keeper league, I don't want to trust that this season. Josh Jacobs is the piece I want more than anything. Sure. He was not good. He was great. And I don't think people realize that because he missed a couple games. He wasn't involved in the passing. You know, on a per game basis, he was.

third in rushing yards per game up there with Derek Henry and Nick Chubb who were outstanding. That's how good Josh Jacobs was in his rookie year. It's just a matter of whether they can get him more involved in the passing game. And we've talked about this recently. He's going to have more work than he, you know, he's going to have more than 20 receptions, which is what he had last year. I think Jacobs, I was pulled the other day by another fantasy entity about,

players that could make their debut in that top five. A group of running backs most likely to do it. Jacobs was my answer for basically every breakout category. Missing a few games provides a ADP opportunity for fantasy players to get Josh Jacobs at a better value than they could. It's very similar to me than to the excitement that I had for Dalvin Cook coming into last year. He was the breakout guy that just stood out to me as somebody that everything's laid out for him to have success.

This team, you know, he was an investment by John Gruden. I'm on board completely. I think he has, not everybody has the chance to be a top three running back. He has a chance to me. He's got this shot. Josh Jacobs, to me, is one of my favorite second round picks. If I'm in the second round and I leave with Josh Jacobs anywhere in it, I mean, I was the second pick in the second round in an industry mock, and I took Jacobs. I absolutely love his upside. And the fact that he can be your second running back, or.

You can have a Michael Thomas paired with someone that could be that top five guy. I just absolutely love the potential. Jacobs is not a hard sale. Is there, are you looking at Derek Carr in two quarterback situations at all with upside? If he's got, you know, improved weapons, if Josh Jacobs is involved in the passing game and you believe in what he can do with the ball on his hands, do you have any belief in Derek Carr? Yeah, this might sound like a cop out, but it's actually 100% true. Derek Carr is my.