AFC West Breakdown + Henry Gets Paid - Fantasy Football Podcast

My job, our job on this show for divisional breakdowns is not to tell you how good the chiefs are. That's an easy job. That's very simple. You just look at every metric everywhere. Dude, that point differential, their point differential is 143.

Second place, second and third, I should say, the Broncos and Raiders, they finished the season tie, but the Broncos had a negative 34 point differential, and the Raiders were negative 106. Well, yeah, they had to play the Chiefs twice. I mean, it's not fair to be in that division. They score so many points. Yeah, I think I read that their average points in losses was 36.5. So when they lose, they still scored 36 and a half. Also, you also don't want to try to beat them.

Because when opposing teams led by 10 points on the chiefs during the year, the chiefs were undefeated. They were 5 and 0. And then we saw that all through the playoffs, right? Because they were down 24 to Houston. 24 nothing, right? Wasn't it? Yeah. They were down 10 points to Tennessee. They were down 10 points to the 49ers. And think about what that does psychologically to the opposing team. Your objective is to beat them. If you get a lead, you become more scared and you play differently.

And they're also, I mean, this is like if you could design a circumstance for a great team inside of a video game, the chiefs are that. Because, and I even mean going into 2020, they're returning all 11 starters. They're returning, I believe, 10 of 11 on defense. They filled one of their holes by drafting Clyde Edwards Aller in the draft. They paid their best player on offense and defense, Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones.

They have complete continuity in coaching staff, all players, on a season in which there might not be much of a training camp and opportunity for any of these new offensive coordinators and head coaches to do anything in terms of building any type of, you know, just coordinated playing with these teams. Are they going undefeated? This is what I'm asking you. Is Andy Reed the one who's like, yeah, we don't need no preseason. We don't need to do that.

Don't worry about strength. Guys, we don't need training camp either. Let's just start the season. I mean, so you start with the fantasy discussion, not around whether Patrick Mahomes is good. Yeah, he's good. He should be your quarterback. Sure. It's kind of the discussion on Clyde Edwards, a lair to me. Because we talked about, you know, the excitement for Montgomery last year, who was coming into a great running offense. And make no mistake, I mean, if you are an Andy Reid running back, 16 years as a head coach.

His top running back has been a top 10 score 12 times in 16 years. Yeah, I went and I looked, Damien Williams, who is, look, he was a fantasy bust last year because of injury. Like every game that Damian Williams played in over 60% of the snaps, he was a top 16 running back at worst. Yeah, and that's- He produces when he's on the field. So does that speak to a willingness to just spin up on Clyde Edwards-Aler that some are doing?

And just, sure, it might be, it might be a tough three, four, five weeks. You know, you've got all the rhetoric about Damien Williams, ready to compete. But you don't invest that kind of draft capital on a guy that you're not going to make your running back, right? Eventually, you're right. Eventually, you know, he will be the absolute.

dominant fantasy option on this team. It's just a matter of when and what it costs you. The win, I believe, won't be for the first four or five weeks of the season, especially with this shortened preseason coming in, you know, the running back coach talking up to Amyne Williams. You know, this won't be, you know, Kareem Hunt came in and was great, got the whole workload as a rookie, but that was because he wasn't supposed to. The presumed starter got injured. If that happens,

Goodness, I mean, Clydeon Williams is going to be in the first round. I'm starting to change. I'm starting to change. You're rising. I'm starting to soften on my thought that Damien will have much of that backfield for very long. Oh, so you're shifting over to Edwards a layer. I'm just, I'm shifting towards the thought that Jason, you know, what you're saying is true, but that timeline, I'm shrinking it in my head. I'm thinking maybe one or two weeks for there to be more of a shared backfield and then Clyde.

You know, great players separate themselves. Damien Williams has been able to, you know, third down, wheel routes. He's not a traditional, you know, we saw this in the playoffs. We were looking at Damien Williams in the backfield versus Derek Henry. And you said, oh, this is just, they don't play the same position. Right. Yeah, very different. But when you're speaking to the cost, like if it's, if it's one to two weeks, Andy, like you are starting to project, then Clyde Edwards O'Leary, to me, 100% worth the draft pick.

What's wild is if you start thinking about it, if it takes five to six weeks, but you're confident in about five to six games, Edwards O'Leary will be the primary running back. I still think that he's probably worth that draft pick. I mean, you have to figure out your team in the meanwhile of how to get off to a hot start, how to survive without your second round pick, doing really anything for you at the beginning of the season.

But like I said, for Damien, when there is a running back on the field a lot for Kansas City, they're a top 10 running back. I've got a perfect question for you to put this on the table. Because what you're saying is the ceiling's so high for Clyde. Exactly. When he's the guy that the cost is worth it. So pretend right now, Christian McCaffery or Sequin Barclay or Ezekiel Elliott suspended six games. Where do they go in your fantasy draft? With the output that they would bring you.

Right. If Christian McCaffrey wasn't hurt and you get him in week seven, you saw that with... Didn't Zeke had a couple years ago he started... Yeah, but it wasn't in the draft. He was in the middle of the season. Yeah, okay. It was in the middle of season when the suspension came down. So you weren't sure. But we did have the conversations that mirrored this. Where would they go? Right. And I think that that depends on, you know, who else is on the board in different years to say they'd go at the back of the...

first or the beginning of the second. To me, you know, I still do think Damien Williams is involved. I don't like getting off to a slow start, but I will grant you that Clyde Edwards-Alair will be a great second half of the year player, but I want to get off to a hot start in all my redraft and keeper leagues. So if it was a third round pick,

then I'd be fine going running back, running back, running back, and knowing that I've got two guys ahead of Clyde Edwards Allaire. If he's in the third round, I'm fine. But the second, that means that I only have one other starting running back, and then I'm plugging a hole with a Sony Michelle later or, you know, Jordan Howard. I don't want to do that. Well, what about still doing that, going running back, running back, running back. But instead, but you're grabbing Edwards Aller in the second round. And then.

In the third round, then you're drafting Levy on Bell, Chris Carson, Connor. Sure. And you don't have to go down to David Montgomery. In things that could happen inside of your draft, are you okay starting that with the potential that on the second half of the season, you have a top 10 possibly even better fantasy running back through that time span? I think if I, if just personally.

If I were to grab Edwards O'Lear, I'll end up with three running backs in the first three rounds. The interesting thing, though, about the discussion is Clyde Edwards O'Lear is not suspended. So there is a percentage chance that the timeline is faster. And there is a percentage chance he's a valuable player because this offense is the best in football. They lose with 36 points. There's a chance that he's startable. He's flexible before he's even the guy. So that's why I've changed my thought process a little bit.

Where do you guys have him? I have him on the season at running back 15. So I still have him finishing. Yeah, you've got him hired 90 right now. But I'm warming to... He's a 15 for me. Yeah. Okay. He's at 18 right now on my board, which is Chris Carson, Lev Bell, David Johnson range. Because of what we've talked about in the past, but I'm just starting to see a pathway where because that is such a high ceiling.

Exactly. And if you can maneuver your way through three, four, five weeks of the season without him as your number one player, if he becomes that, he's a top 10 running back. The thing is, I want to make the argument against Edwards Aller on talent. I wasn't a huge fan of him and talk about what we haven't seen him. There is a chance that he doesn't succeed as well. But I just, I don't actually believe that with Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid. Like the schematically, he's going to get the ball open and whoever the running back is.

I don't care. Damien Williams, I've said forever, is not a good running back. But he's great at fantasy if he's got the ball in that system. So anybody will be. Meaning that there is. Why you got to do my man dirty like that? That should have been the Super Bowl MVP. At the wide receiving position, Tyree Kale, McColle Hardman, Sammy Watkins. Being pointed out to me that Sammy is still just 27 years old.

Same age as Devante Parker's breakout season. That does not matter to me. If you heard Sammy Watkins talk about this season, he basically comes out and says he's not going to be that productive. He basically said, you know, I'd rather be a guy that's under 1,000 yards on a Super Bowl team than go somewhere and try to shoot for 1,000 yards. So his expectations have been qualmed by, I don't know, his career.

Maybe. But he did average 96 yards a game in the playoffs. Oh, yeah. The toughest of the competition. He was almost 100 a game. I think my Sony Michelle playoff argument that went into last year has cooled me on playoff arguments a little bit. But, no, I mean, Sammy is still, he's being drafted as a wide receiver 58. I mean, is that appropriate? That doesn't feel appropriate to me for Patrick Mahomes' number two weapon. Yeah, no, I would, I'm fine drafting. I mean, this is a wide receiver 54.

This is not no wide receiver 58. Yeah, yeah. It's wild. I think that he is, his, the cost of drafting him is just, it's too low for what he could become. Tyreek Hill is also a very difficult, uh, evaluation for me because you had the first five weeks for, so he got injured right away. But then right when he comes back for five games, he's the wide receiver two and points per game over that stretch. Hurts his hamstring.

in week 11, and then his average finish becomes wide receiver 35. And I've kind of made the argument about you can see a correlation between the defense getting better and Tyree Kills production going down. But then you also have to factor it was a hamstring injury and a hamstring injury for Tyreek Hill is going to be pretty devastating for him. Jay, where, how are you?

on Tyreeke Hill right now. Yeah, the defense argument of the Kansas City Chiefs having a much better defense, the second half of the year, requiring them to score less. It holds a little, a little bit of water, but to me personally, I don't have a qualm at all about taking Tyreek Hill in that top group. You know, when I look at the best wide receivers out there, you know, Michael Thomas is in that,

first tier and then it's pretty much Tyrie killed Devante Adams and Julio to me like I don't I'll put them in a blender I'll take one out or a you know that sounds painful if you're in a blender you're not getting one out that's the whole point of a blender yeah this is how I get my veggies Jason blends things together and then takes one object out somehow that's right um yeah but I'm just saying like I I I don't have fears that Tyree because here's the truth the truth is he is

one of the fastest, if not the most practically fast player in the NFL with the best quarterback. Yeah. One of the best. I mean, he's proven his entire career. He's been great. So I'm not, I'm not reading into his hamstring-induced poor performance last half of last year. Dynasty question on Travis Kelsey. He's the tight in one. How many more seasons do you think he has at that range?

At least two for me, probably three, which means that he still would be my number one tight end. Last year, 97 for 12, 29, and 5. So there's touchdown upside still with Travis Kelsey. Yeah. All right, let's talk about the Denver Broncos moving on. If I've learned anything over the last three months, Broncos fans are real and they are intense.

They believe... They're just a passionate people. They believe in an undefeated season on the way. Drew Locke's the future. Wasn't Drew Locke like 4 and 1? He was. That's true. He was 4 and 1. The Denver Broncos were 7 and 9 last year. It was a bad offense. 32nd in football. That's bad. And passing touchdowns. They did not have a lot of weapons, which is probably one of the...