Top 10 TE Rankings + UDK-for-LIFE, Cup of Tea - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/17

We've seen Debo takeover games, and now we have seen Brandon Ayuk takeover games. This is a little bit of a different scenario for George Kittle. And this is not saying I'm avoiding George Kittle, but just saying, I haven't met my number three because I have a little bit of health concerns for him and the fact that these other two guys can step in and a...

and remove George Kittle from being the star. I mean, you have, so I'm throwing out. We haven't seen all three of them on the field together. Exactly. At full help very much. Exactly. And then in the last year, I mean, I'm throwing out the week one. Well, I guess you shouldn't because he played 98% of the snaps. He was the tight in 17 in week one. And then once he finally came back from his injury, he had two top two finishes. But then the other three games, he was tight in 15.

or worse. Yeah, I mean, he was obviously playing injured. But in that bad season, in that bad season, he was on a 17-game pace of 1,347 yards. The two previous seasons, he was the tight-in three and the tight-in two. This is a guy who can easily go out there and hit 1,200 yards at tight-in. And what's crazy is that his career high in touchdowns is five. This is not a tight-in who is making his mark.

Around the end zone, like a lot of... Touchdowns are not his cup of tea. Right. You know, but wouldn't it be, wouldn't it be the B's knees if he ends up with eight or nine touchdowns? Because his body style, his athleticism. It would be hot to trot. Yeah. So my point is... I don't think these are British phrases. The B's knees is a British phrase. It is. That's why I threw it out there. Really? Yeah. Oh. Yeah. Good work. Good word.

Um, here's the thing, though. Google British phrases. You're darn right I did. You think I knew that the bees, these was a British phrase. I'm getting on this. I didn't know that. Yeah, I didn't either. But we're here to educate. People out there getting knackard over all these, uh, references. What a smashing use of the word knackard. Jason, after that analysis, I'm chuffed to bits. Oh, uh, Brooks, can you put on some tea?

for us. We're going to need that when this show's over. My point is that there is built-in upside to Kittle that, I mean, if any of these seasons where he has 1,200, 1,300 yards, if he ends up with 8 or 9 touchdowns, he's, Travis Kelsey. So the upside is there if he falls a little bit in drafts because of the injury risk or because of Waller taking the number two spot. The high potential that he'll have a rookie quarterback.

as throwing him the ball eventually in the season. Yeah, yeah. Bloody good analysis, Jason. Thank you. I did throw a poll up earlier this morning because I was curious about the highest odds of starting week one between Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones. Yeah, preseason game one has shifted things for people. Justin Fields is at 51%. And Trey Lance and Mac Jones are identical at 24% each. So Mark Andrews comes in at four.

Mark Andrews is just, I mean, four is his and his alone. Like he just sits there in his own number four spot. This is a huge average draft position drop between the top three, too. You got a two-round gap between where Kittle and Waller are going. And then Andrews and Hawkinson sit in the fifth round. Yeah. Andrews is, I mean, back-to-back top five fantasy titant. Simple question, are you drafting Mark Andrews, period. Yes.

Okay, you are. In the fifth round, you're drafting Mark Andrews. I'm fine with it. I am also fine with drafting Mark Andrews or T.J. Hawkinson, both fifth round guys.

Most of the time when I'm doing my real drafts or even my mocks that I'm really trying to take a look at what I want my roster to build, there is a player or two in the fifth round that I just can't pass. Someone like, you know, if I'm at the 509 where T.J. Hawkinson is going and Tyler Lockett is there, I think he's just too valuable to pass up for a guy, you know, a guy that I do think is going to break out. Like, I'll be honest, on my board.

has been T.J. Hawkinson for my guy on Friday because I fully believe that the breakout is going to come. I think he could be 140 target guy. He's going to be the clear number one target for this offense. He was one of my favorite things drafted to be great. Top 10 NFL draft pick. He's been good. Everything says T.J. Hawkinson is going to have a good season. But not necessarily a great season. You know, obviously what Travis Kelsey can do is.

There's no limit. But there is a limit when you're talking about Jared Goff, when you're talking about the Detroit Lions offense. I am willing to draft either one of those guys. And obviously getting back to Mark Andrews are tied in four. Right now, Marquise Brown, not on the field. Rashad Bateman out for several weeks. You've got Sammy Watkins just, you know, a lizard injury. Yeah, he hurt his tail. So it's like. Those don't really factor him for me.

Sure, but my- Because two-thirds of the morning theory last year and Hollywood's dealt with injuries before, that pie doesn't seem to expand for Andrews and we've given him that shot. Yeah, my point is just he is the guy right now that continues building report. If you want to talk about a connection that's locked in and who, you know, there's been all this conversation. Who's the one? Is it going to be, the one is Mark Andrews in that office? I think, do you guys see someone else out targeting Mark Andrews in this offense? I do not.

88 targets last year in 14 games? Probably not. Probably not. I think if Bateman had been healthy, I would be thinking about it. But just because what he represents possession-wise, but no, you're right. I mean, Andrews is the top target on the teeny pie team. And there's nothing wrong with putting them in your lineup. But in the fifth round, you pick between Andrews, Hawkinson, and Kyle Pitts. You know, these three guys are all going in that round.

and uh do you give andrews is not the one i pick okay then i'll go to jason i guess you've already answered it because you want tire lock in the fifth which i do as well would you consider uh i know this goes against the don't go quarterback and tight in early but would you consider for an upside team you're on the turn on the four or five turn going lamar jackson and mark andrews

Um, like on that on a weekly basis, your upside is your team can explode. Yes. Your, your upside is, is massive. You can explode. And I, I love a good stack. I would much rather build that stack via, you know, if you're in a keeper league where you got to keep Andrews, you got to keep Lamar late, spinning both a fourth and a fifth on, you know, I'm going to be talking about stacking on tomorrow's episode. Okay. And I, the way that I approach stacking for a redraft league.

draft capital is going to factor in pretty heavily. So I would not spend a fourth and a fifth together to stack. Yeah, Andrews feels a little bit like a priceier tunion bet. Like I'd rather take the tunion chance. And we've seen three years of Mark Andrews, 34, 64, 58 reception-wise. And I just remember spending all of off-season last year going, boy, what if that volume went up? And it doesn't seem like it. Hawkinson's at five.

Kyle Pitts at 6. I kind of want to talk about these guys together. Okay. Hawkinson is, I mean, he has upside, but I'm not willing to spin the fifth round pick on. I will say this. I get that the new hotness, the questionable upside of the greatest player of all time in Kyle Pitts, we've had discussions through the off season, and you're saying, well, I want to swing for the fences, get someone who could be the number one guy. Kyle Pitts cannot be that. It's just.

It's just true. Flat out impossible. And I'm not saying that Hawkinson. But my point is Hawkinson, like if I had to, I would love to take any and all water bets of Hawkinson versus Pitt. So if you guys want in on that, I will take them. I see. Wow. Please. Oh. Well, I mean, yes, sure. Okay. Great. I mean, that's what my rankings say. Waterbed. But they also say that right now. You might have a update later. I bet based on complete.

factual evidence of today. So we, obviously we looked. And I always bet against Jason. Andy and I, we did a deep dive, deep dive yesterday in the office on Kyle Pitts, looking at what it would take to reproduce and get to a good enough value to be drafted in this range. And we all know it would take the best.

Rookie tight end season of all time. But we wanted to know how much higher, how much better would it really take? It would be astronomically higher. I mean, so much higher than any other rookie titan in history, you're talking like, can you take? You're talking about 25% of the best rookie season ever. If you add that onto the best rookie season ever, then you get to where he's an acceptable pick in this range. Whereas you're talking about T.J. Hawkinson, who is the.

He was the tight end four last year while being injured and dealing with obviously the same poor team. He was one of five tight ends to have 100 plus targets. And now you got rid of Marvin Jones. You got rid of Kenny Galladay. He is the number one target going into his third year. T.J. Hawkinson is going to break out this year. Whether or not his breakout is worth the draft capital, I will say this. If you are someone who hates streaming tight ends, hates trying to figure out the matchups, the plays, this and that,

Then it is worth it for you to save your fab dollars, to save your transaction counts through the year if you're on a waiver priority system. Then I think that that is worth it because I can't see him having fewer than 125 targets. And that's just enough volume if you're in a half PPR or full PPR league. Yeah, I don't. I think you're going to see more of the same from Hawkins than his last year. Matthew Stafford, we've talked a lot about him on the recent shows. He's a better quarterback than Jared Gough.

And, you know, last year, I know he was banged up and Hawkinson's this, you know, valuable player in terms of checkdowns and things like that. But the reason I like Kyle Pitts more is I see a thousand plus yards for Kyle Pitts in his rookie season. You have the absence, the target vacuum of Julio Jones. You have a player that's essentially a wide receiver. You have to think of Kyle Pitts as a wide receiver. We went back yesterday, like you said. I agree with everything that we were talking about yesterday.

in terms of what the ceiling looks like. Calvin Ridley's rookie season was 175 fantasy points. I think I have Kyle Pitts at 179, but you've got to be in the 220 plus range to be the kiddle, Kelsey difference maker for the team. That being said, a thousand plus yards for Kyle Pitts with some touchdown upside, I think you're going to get that. And I think your odds of touchdowns with Matt Ryan in that offense and what role he has to play. They're in camp. Kyle Pitts has looked apart. They're moving them around the formation. You cannot do those athletic things with T.J. Hawkinson.

You can't. And you got 700 yards last year in 16 games from T.J. Hawkinson. That got you tied in four. I want more upside in the fifth round than T.J. Hawkinson. Sure. But T.J. Hawkinson is an extreme athlete. Like he was. Yes. He is not Kyle Pitts. I agree. Kyle Pitts is the only one. Yeah. He breaks. He breaks the mold. But I mean, if you're comparing Hawkinson against the other top tier athletes, I'm just saying athletically speaking, he's up there with.

you know, you're George Kittles. As a tight end. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, six, five, almost 250 pounds and like a four, seven, 40. You've got to watch him for two years, Mike. Do you look at T.J. Hawkinson, two years of T.J. Hawkinson and say he delivered on the, what you expected, or was it less than you expected? It was. Just eyeballs. I think he delivered what I expected. And between the two, I,

If I'm taking that tight end in the fifth round or the sixth round, somehow they both happen to be there, I would go Hawkinson. I side more of Jason Balleen that Hawkinson is going to be the number one target for the Detroit Lions. And I think that the upside is there. I mean, maybe you're not getting the splash plays like from Kyle Pitts, but you won't see a splash play every single week. Meanwhile, you should see.

seven plus targets for Hawkinson every single week. Yeah, his yard per catch is lower than all those athletic explosion tight ends. You know. Talk about Hawkinson. Yes. So just one last point of clarity, though, that's the normal, like historical projection for all tight ends of all time is you get, you add to those things. So he's going into his third year, which is the normal breakout year for tight ends. And that's where it's like,

Yeah, he has not been great yet, but he was a rookie and he was a sophomore at a position where you don't usually do it that early. You do see Splash plays earlier. You see them with Mark Andrews earlier, George Kittle earlier, Noah Fant earlier. He has gone down in yards per catch over the first two seasons, had a lot of drops, a lot of penalties. A lot of drops, that's fair. 8.8% drop rate. My point is not that he can't. I mean, it's a tough position to break out in Detroit with a worse quarterback, a different offensive system.