NFC West Breakdown + Sprinkle That! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/27

Hey, this is Patrick Mahomes quarterback for the Kansas City Chief, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers podcast. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, the fantasy footballers back with you. The final divisional show. Breaking down the NFC West today.

And before we get started, before I say anything else, I think it is important that I take a moment. You're going to lead the show with this? I just think that. Jason doesn't know what's happening. I don't. No, I said baby. We checked the tape. We checks the tape, everybody. And the truth shall set you free. I was so sure that I didn't say baby because Mike immediately said, oh, no, he said maybe. So he backed me up. Mike knew what I meant when I said baby. He knew that I meant maybe when I said baby. But the important thing here is not that I was right. But it is that Sam Darn now has an official nickname. And he is known forever forward as the sacrificial baby. And he's got a baby face. So this makes sense. And that's what I was doing on purpose. Right. Thank you for giving us the sacrificial baby.

I was so sure when I went to the tape that I was going to see how clearly I pronounced the M in maybe. And there's just no mistaking it. There was no M. And for those of you out there that I saw in the comments that were defending me, thank you for that. You're very loyal. You were wrong, too. But I said, baby. You had the, like, opportunity to listen to it multiple times. We just, we heard it live and had to make a snap judgment. And if you have not yet listened to that wonderful episode when you're going to listen after this.

Enjoy. Yeah, there's more things that went on in that episode, too, that we found out. Apparently, I whistled like an old prospector. It was awesome. Yeah, this tooth is the gift that keeps on giving. Shouldn't be five, six more months until that's fixed. Thank you for joining us. The Ultimate Draft Kit available right now, a reminder. Go to Ultimate DraftKit.com. All of our premium rankings. All of our, you know, with tiers. And then we have sleepers breakouts, busts, and values. Got the draft analyzer tool. We have a ton of resources. I just talked about the consistency tool where you can go and look at how consistent players are if you want to build your team based on, you know, you want to balance. You want some upside. You want to mitigate risk. And we try to equip you to dominate on draft day with the ultimate draft kit. So please take advantage of that.

Our quick question of the day was submitted by Brian in the Bay Area. And it's a doozy. I have players that I like to put in what I call the James Connor tier is what he said. And I would love to know how you view them for redraft this year. Keep trade cut. James Connor, David Montgomery, and Najee Harris. And then he says, thanks boys, hashtag dinner butter for life. I think before we. declare our keep trade cut here. I think it's worth the experience of going through how it goes right and how it goes wrong for each of them. So for James Connor, he has been dominant. He has literally been dominant the last couple of years when he's on the field. The offense should be better. Kyler provides more scoring opportunities. He is the clear leader. For David Montgomery, should something happen to give, without Gibbs, he's good. He's got the...

maybe the best goal line opportunities in the entire league as it stands. And if something goes wrong for Gibbs, then you're talking about a guy who should be almost a top five weekly start. And in Najee, this is a team who has drastically improved the offensive line. They brought in Arthur Smith, who we are worried about, you know, oh, we love to make fun of, but his running schemes have always worked. They've been very powerful. Sure. And Najee has lost weight this offseason, which we've wanted him to do for a while, pick up a little bit of speed. So that's the good case. I found it for him, guys. That's the upside for all three of those guys. I'll let you guys handle the downside cases. Yeah, I mean, for James Connor, the downside is injury, in my opinion. It's not so much a threat from somebody else. If you pay attention to Cardinals camp out here, one of the bigger.

discussions along with the wide receiver two for that team and who wins that competition is whether it's Michael Carter or Trey Benson as the backup for James Connor. So whenever you have debate on the backup of the SART of the dominated, to me it's about injury. It's about, you know, James Connor doesn't play full seasons very often. So to me, that's the downside. And because you have a player in Trey Benson in particular that is capable, if you have an injury, you could see the workload diminish. And for the record, not very often is literally never. He has never once played a full season. You know, for Montgomery, Mike, I mean, I think we'd agree that the elevation of Jamir Gibbs over the back half of last season, the fact that he's the more electric back that they've already come out and said vocally that they want to get him more work, you know, it puts Montgomery into a committee situation where you could only be happy when he scores a touchdown.

And then Naji, you know, the downside case for that is his lack of talent. The downside case is just like what you've seen the last couple years. Jalen Warren's been the more explosive effective back. Naji always benefits from high volume and so if the volume isn't there for Naji, that's your down case. And you bring in Cordero Patterson who will get six carries inside the five. You know, this is not going to be a ton, but if he vultures. two touchdowns from Najee. That's going to change how you feel about him. I mean, for me, it's in order. I'm keeping James Connor. I'm trading David Montgomery and I'm cutting Najee Harris. So for me, Najee is the least favorite of this group for for myself. So he'll be the cut. And whether you keep or trade Monty versus Connor is completely about what running back this is on your roster. If I am going to rely on this as a starter.

Week in, week out. I actually wanted James Connor. I know the health is the issue and maybe that won't happen, but he's starting this season healthy. If I am drafting this team and I'm like, okay, this is my third running back, then I want James Connor. I think he's going to score more points on a regular basis. But if he's my fourth running back or later, if I'm getting him, you know, he's dropping and I'm already loaded, then Monty's ceiling is way higher to me. I don't think James Connor can do what Monty would do if Jamir Gibbs gets injured. So the way I break it down is I, it just,

I rank the offenses and then workload. So I think that the Cardinals are going to be one of the offenses that surprise people. We're going to get into them. And James Conner is the clear starter. So he, to me, is the easy keep. I want Connor on my team. Like I actually targeting. Yes, he is a target of mine in the sixth round as the RV-19 is delightful. Between the other two guys, I think, is harder because I think that they're, The floor for Montgomery is probably safer, but, like, he is, he is the backup. Like, it, it will be Jemir Gibbs as, like, I think Jermere Gibbs will be, like, a high 50s, 60% compared to David Montgomery. And, like, Naji, it's, it's fun. It's easy to, to, to, uh, tell jokes about Naji Harris, but he's been over a thousand rushing yards every,

year of his career. He is in a timeshare with Jaylon Warren, but he is still going to be, I think, the primary guy. And with the offensive line improving and the offense improving, I would put Najee as number two. Now, if it's keep trade cut, like, have to play that game. I trade David Montgomery because his values higher. But like the truth of how am I drafting these guys, it's Connor excited about it. And that Najee reluctantly and then I am excited about Montgomery, but I just, the, Things going not nearly as well is I can see that path. Last year for what it's worth, rushing share, which is the percentage of the team's rushing attempts. For, yeah, running back attempts? For running back attempts. Connor was at 77% of the running back attempts. That's a great number. Naji, while he only played 53% of the running back attempts, but his magic.

reception numbers from that first year gone. Warren is doing that. And then Monty was actually third at 59% in that order. And over, like after the buy week, that number is down to 54%. I mean, they're interesting names. And I think Jason brought a lot of good context to the way you look at where you're getting them in your draft. Like I'm with you, Mike. I'm actively, I would love to have James Connor as one of my starting running backs and just run that. until I can't. And the team is so behind him. But yeah, I mean, if it's best case, worst case for these guys, I think Monty and Connor's ceiling is pretty similar. And Harris just doesn't, I just don't think he has that ceiling anymore. Which, yeah, I can agree with him. Like Monty and Connor, I mean, Connor over the back half last year, Monty without Gibbs. Those are both top five, six backs. But what is, what is Naji? Without Warren? Yeah.

Probably 10, 11, 12. Like, if we're going to do the injury game. Yeah, no, it's got to be fair. Now, Monty has a much better schedule to open the year. And a much better just offense overall. Yeah, yeah. And I was going to save this for when we talk about the Cardinals, but since we're talking about Connor now, this is worth saying, like, Kyler Murray came back in week 10. If you look at how James Connor did in the Kyler Murray offense. The 17-game pace, which was eight games, so it was a large chunk. The half a season? Yeah, the 17-game pace would have been 1,436 rushing yards with 10.6 rushing touchdowns, another 40 receptions for 286 receiving yards with four receiving touchdowns. That's elite. James Connor was beating everybody last year. He had the third most forced miss tackles and the third-most runs of 10-plus yards. Which is just wild.

Because he's never ran past 22 yards. It was his best year. I mean, and he's getting better somehow. He's a weird player. I know. Good guy. Yeah. All right. Let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. Rahim Morris says Kirk Cousins has been medically cleared to return to the field. Here we go. Yep. We just talked about Atlanta a couple shows ago. Kirk Cousins is very important. to what's going on for everybody else on that team. Cortland Sutton restructured. Okay. Gave him some incentives, $1.5 million of new incentives for the season. Mike Tomlin, Steelers head coach said Russell Wilson is dealing with a calf issue. So Justin Fields taking first team reps right now. Oh, don't worry. I know. Fields can't impress you. I know. I came into this off season.

thoroughly 100% convinced. In fact, I made dynasty trade offers for Justin Fields everywhere when they brought in Russ and he was the backup here because I was thoroughly... Like that when it happened? Yeah, I was thoroughly convinced that Justin Fields will take this team over at some point because it's a well-run organization. Justice Fields has really incredible traits that I think if you were to train and harness the best of Justin Fields, you should be able to do great with it. But it seems like from all the reports, not just like Tomlin talking about how Russ is going to be first and Fields is the backup.

That's how we're going to start. But like that Russ has been out playing him, has been good, has been the leader. Like I think he's the guy. And the problem is you go, okay, well, what about when they start losing games? They got Tomlin. They're not going to lose enough games to where they're forced. Also, you'll also lose games with Justin Fields. That's one of the things he's done effectively. I'm saying they might not play games with Justin Fields. You may not get reporting like this on other podcasts, but this is the fantasy footballer. So we must share that the report was.

Russell Wilson is dealing with a calf issue that he woke up with. Okay. I mean, generally when I'm dealing with an issue, I wake up with it. I have it while I'm awake and then I also go to sleep with it. I'm imagining him waking up and just being like, ah. Yeah, I mean, we are the home of sitting injuries. Yeah. So sleeping injuries, not impossible. I just didn't think he was to that age yet. I know exactly when that age happened where it was like sleeping injuries are a real concern now. Andy had a sleeping injury. I did lose a tooth while being with sleep. Look, a lot of things happen while you're sleeping. Russ is looking everywhere for that calf. I mean, you eat spiders while you sleep, right? That's the wife still. Jamar Chase, not practicing. Yeah, and.

He wants more money. We had said yes or not yesterday, the previous show of we aren't sure what's going on. Like is this a, was there a slight injury and they're going to work him in? But it's feeling more and more like money. Just to be clear. My dynasty team, I have secured contracts for almost every single player. You sure have. Alvin come here I still need to work on, but everybody else has a new deal. You've done really well. Now, Mike, give me some of your wide receivers in your dynasty team. Brandon I. You. So my main wide receivers are Jamar Chase, C.D. Lamb and Brandon and I, you. Hold out, hold out, hold out. Or hold in, hold in, hold in. Give the man his money. If you want to send them my way, I'll put them on the roster. We did talk about that of a possible.

I send my player over to you just so we can get the mojo. I'll give you a third rounder. Yeah, and then I hold him for a bit. Yeah. Get him a deal. Secure the bag and then you just give him back to me. But he keeps the third rounder. I keep the third rounder as compensation. Also, for all listening, that would be called collusion. It's not actually a legitimate thing. I don't know that it's collusion. Two players colluding to do something together. Yeah, I mean, you don't think that makes both teams better. No, we're. Makes both teams better. It's not collusion if I get the deal done. It's only collusion if it doesn't happen. No, it's like the old question we get every year of like, can I borrow a player for a week and play him in my? He didn't play him. That's true. What's the colluding? All right. Okay. Well, you'll have to take it up in front of the Supreme Court of our League. Shane Steichen said he does not plan on limiting Anthony Richardson as a runner this season. I saw a quote of it was like, would you stop?

Steph Curry from shooting threes. It's fair. It doesn't mean that Richardson stays healthy. No. But it means that when he plays, he'll be the best version of Anthony Richardson for your fantasy team. I do think that, to be fair to that, that quote, three-pointers are probably the safest of all the plays. Like, it's not like, you know, it's like the retort there should be who's getting injured on the three? Hey, sometimes you have, you got dirty players like Bruce Bowen. They stick the leg out for you to land on. Hated Bruce Ball. That's a super sick. 90s spurs. Yeah, good job. Super sick spurs reference. I don't think I have any other news. How is everybody over there in Ducer's Alley today? Is everybody doing okay? Doing great. Oh, we got a thumbs up. We've got the thumbs up from the Falcon because he's wearing 49ers gear head to toe. Just, um, that's the NFC. West. He's got the hat. So that's to celebrate one of their.

Super Bowl losses. Got the shirt for the other Super Bowl loss. Oh, wait. Do you have some shoes or socks or something? You think you're losing it again this year? 2013. The nice thing about your outfit is it, like it looks really nice. It doesn't look like just 49ers vomited all over your clothing. True. I mean, but he's excited about the NFC West breakdown. That we'll get started with in a minute here. We'll take a break, come back with the NFC West. See how biased we are this year. Okay, to be clear, you were mocking his clothing. Is that what was going on? Yeah. Did you look at it? It's hideous. Yeah, it is actually. Falcon, you're a handsome guy. You look so. That looks like somebody took all the 49er clip art and just threw it at a wall. You have diner shoes, Andy. Not on right now, but. No, I mean, I've been told I have nightmares. We're in a professional work environment, and this is what he was wearing. This is inappropriate to wear it at a football game.

Like that's how bad it looks. Okay, okay. Well, you're taking your shots early because you know when we have to project this division later on. I won't do it. Yeah, I don't think the Cardinals are going to end up on top. Last year they didn't. That's for sure. The 49ers, 12 and 5. The Rams, 10 and 7, the Seahawks 9 and 8. and the Cardinals 4 and 13. I've been told I didn't hit the drop. Let's get divisional. We're doing well today, everybody. Today and every day. All right. Well, fantasy-wise, this division has a lot of intriguing players. And it's a lot of bringing guys back that delivered for you in fantasy the year before. Like not a lot of turnover.

at core skill position players. There's some exciting players, rookies-wise, coming into the division. We'll start with San Francisco. They went 12 and 5, obviously lost in the Super Bowl, as Matt let you know. And 10 and a half was the win total they were projected with last year. It's at 11.5. That's a massive. That's a hard mark to beat. A lot of times when teams are, you know, scheduled for 11.5 wins to start the season, they generally come in under. Now what if I told you that all 17 games they're playing this year, they are currently favored in? I would say that that's... 17 to 17. I would say that that is more common than you think. Like when you're projected for, you know, a few wins, you're often never projected for a win in any game and vice versa. But if you look at 11 plus win total since 2021, you had...

three teams that beat that and looks like about 10 that did not. They, they're favored by more than a point in almost, what, every game but one through the first 11 weeks. They play Kansas City at home in week seven. That's a one point line right now. But, you know, number two in points per game last year. Number two in total yards, if you've been watching receiver on Netflix, you've gotten a, up and close view of both Debo and George Kittle and the offense and the way things have worked in San Francisco. There were a machine when Debo was active and available last year. And we know what Kyle Shanahan is all about. He's going to have an effective, efficient offense. We know what Christian McCaffrey's all about. He's going to be the best fantasy player in your league if he stays healthy. And this team's continuity is just outstanding.

You know, you really didn't lose any of their positional pieces so long as none of these wide receivers are traded away. What about the locker room, though, losing the sacrificial baby? I think they, you know, maybe he was their sacrificial baby, and it's going to be good juju for them. But they add, you know, rookie Pearsall, a first round wide receiver in the draft, Isaac Garindo, an athletic freak at running back who will be behind Elijah Mitchell, and Jacob Cowing. I mean, they've just got depth of wide receiver. They added, yeah. A lot of offensive pieces. Now, you know, their problem right now is contractual, right? Like the Brandon Ayuk saga, as of this recording, Trent Williams is holding out. They're, you know, all pro left tackle. And then the Brock Purdy story is going to be, you know, moving on into Dynasty leagues and into the future. Their discount aisle is it's indie. Yeah, it's this year. You've got to write a check, a big one.

for Brock Purdy, which means this year's going to define a lot. He was the MVP favorite. He was at minus 250 heading into week 16 last year. So he was so effective, so efficient, has all the weapons. And for fantasy purposes, this is not a confusing team to break down, right? You have, I think the biggest question mark is Purdy and where he fits into the hierarchy of quarterbacks because Debo, Ayuk, McCaffrey. We know what to do with those guys. I guess there's some discussion about George Kittle. But really, George Kittle is a sixth round pick. I've got no problem with his draft price. You're not going to get the consistency of those top three or four tight ends, but George Kittle will also win you weeks. George Kittle has been one of the weirdest player for me. I've often said every mock draft I talk about I want one of the top five tight ends. One of the five that could finish number one.

And I don't include George Kittle in there, and I feel guilty for it every single time, because I do think that is somehow within the range of outcomes for him. He is so talented. It should an injury to one of the wide receivers happen or a trade to one of those wide receivers happen. I mean, yeah, I mean, he was actually consistent last year for the first time in a while. He obviously has big games. If you're watching the receiver documentary, you can see what kind of heart and soul he is of this team. And there's no one that's questioning the talent, right? We've said for years, we've said for years, if you were to swap.

Travis Kelsey and George Kittle on teams and make George Kittle the number one target in Andy Reid's offense. He'd be the number one tight in. He's got that kind of talent. So I don't blame anyone. He's such a good blocker. That is part of the problem. The problem is he's in a system where they run the ball so well and he's so relied upon in that way. Through the first six weeks, this is to illustrate the floor, in the first six weeks, he had a game of he was the the tight-in five at 12 and a half points, the tight end number one with over 26 points, but 0.6 points, 1.4, 4.5, 3.4. It was more consistent over from week 7 on, but it just, that's in there. If you're going to take the ride with George Kittle, there's going to be weeks where he scores three or fewer points, and you might lose because of that margin, and it.

can be emotionally taxing. So Brock Purdy. Not respected enough. No. Ninth round pick, QB12 off the board. Do you guys know where he finished last year without looking? I'm going to guess six. Is that a question mark at the end of that number? Six to eight, you're saying that's your official guess? I'll guess six. I'll guess six. You guys are. Good at your job. Oh, he was quarterback six. Wow. I mean, that's really impressive. And right now, obviously, being drafted nowhere near that. He is currently ranked as our quarterback 9, 11 and 11. What was his touchdown rate last year? Outrageous. Yeah, his touchdown. In his two years, it's been 7%. It was very, very high. However, the year prior, he was at 7.6. You don't expect him to stay there. You, you certainly expect that.

Even if he's very efficient, he would be like five and a half, maybe six percent. So that should regress down. But he also threw the fewest passes or the 49ers did as a team. Yeah, 444 attempts. And so you could have his touchdown percentage come down, and his volume go up, and he can repeat this as a top 10 quarterback. It's always hard for me to pull the trigger on someone that's not a mobile rushing quarterback that's going to add at least like 250 and three on the ground. And Brock's not going to do that. You know, last year he played the full season other than week 18.