Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Bounce Back Players, Favorite Fantasy Offenses

And there's 100% risk. I mean, there is risk with Doug Martin on, but I believe it's health. I don't believe it's talent. And here's what I know about that offense. We all like Tampa's office. Do we not? Yes. Do we not think that they're very potent offense? I think they're pretty good. Their offensive line is not that. Sure. Not that great. We already know, though, if you look at the backfield in Tampa, we've heard all the buzz about Doug Martin. And he's been one of the players where actually when the preseason buzz was there two years ago, it was 100% spot on. We watched him in the preseason. We said, whoa, he looks a little different.

Yeah. That buzz is back with him. We saw what Charles Sims was as a leadback. He wasn't a lead back. That's done. I know Jequiz Rogers had a very, very good year. He was better than Martin. Yes. He was better than Martin. Listen, listen, though. Just 120 carries, okay? 120 carries for DeQuiz Rogers. His career average is 3.8. And if you take out last year, the five previous years combined, his career average is 3.6. Martin isn't even in that. I mean, he's in a different stratosphere. He's a, you know, a career 4.2 runner.

In his healthy years, he's a 4.7 runner. And Jeremy McNichols, the rookie's not taking the job. So for me, you look at the draft, you guys complain about ADP. Well, here's ADP. You want Doug Martin, top five upside, or you want C.J. Anderson or Legeret Blunt, or Ty Montgomery or Carlos Hyde. And I personally am taking Doug Martin over all four of those players. So that's my case for the Doug Martin bounceback. If he's healthy, I believe he will be a frontline starting fantasy-wide receiver. And so let's say I've spent...

my first three picks elsewhere, and I want to grab an upside guy like Martin. And I want to pair them with either Jaquiz later to really be in protective mode with Doug Martin, because you can get Jaquiz late, or Terrence West, who will start the beginning of the year and give you some production. Carlos Hyde, I don't know if he's a guy that he's not late enough to be that fill in. But that's my case for Doug Martin is the bounceback. I know some of you out there you're going to say, hey, I don't want to touch him. That's fine. You don't want to touch him.

I understand that, but I think he can be a top five back. Having a top five upside, which is 100% legitimate with Doug Martin, nobody could argue against the upside capabilities. He's done it. It does prove to be valuable. If he comes back and he's that, you're not going to. Is C.J. Anderson top five upside? I think C.J. Anderson is top 10 upside. Okay, that's fair. Top 10 for sure. Okay, but Blunt, Montgomery?

No, no, but what I was going to say, but they're going to play the first three weeks. What I was going to say about that, though, is when you name those players, now I realize all the more why Doug Martin, you know, you think, oh, maybe he should be in the sixth, seventh, eighth. Now I realize why he's in the fourth. Oh, why he's in the fourth. Because there's just garbage at the, those are your fourth round running backs, people. And this is why. There's players with a lot of warts and worry. Yeah. And question marks. And so, I mean, for me.

You know, the whole idea of grabbing the, you know, not getting a running back early. It just so. That's the lesson you got out of my argument was I want to not draft any of these five guys if I can avoid it. So, all right, let's move on. Jason, give us your second bounceback candidate for today's show. So I went the double wide receiver route today. My other bounceback is a guy that I argued against you on.

This is so weird, man. This is like my love of Moncrief this year. I know. Changes. Yeah. From year to year, things change. And that's the whole point of a bounce back player. Jeremy Macklin, the dirty cake himself, who is now a delicious banana cream pot. He's a tasty cake. Yeah. Taste cake. That's smart. That was well done. So. I wish I believed you. It's unbelievable to me that you don't buy into Jeremy Maclid since.

The reason why you argued for Jeremy Macklin in Kansas City, if I remember correctly, is that he is a good wide receiver, right? That was a while ago. That was three years ago. You got it. No, no, no. Three years ago, he was a top 10 wide receiver in Philadelphia. Sure, sure. So then two years ago, when he went to Kansas City, I was saying, look, this offense cannot support a wide receiver. That's why I didn't like him. He was a top 15 wide receiver in Kansas City. That was two years ago.

He got injured. 44 for 536 and two touchdowns, limited worse. He was worthless, limited work. And clearly, Andrew Reed determined he was worthless as well. Well, yeah. I mean, well, their cap situation. For the cost. Their cap situation is nightmarish for Kansas City. So now you have Jeremy Macklin, a guy who two out of the last three years has been a top 15 wide receiver on two different teams, one of which was Aaron Rogers stinkfest, no production for wide receivers historically. Now he goes to Joe Flacco who can.

throw the routes that he's good at. Here's a quote from Matt Harmon out of the reception about Macklin's time with the Kansas City Chiefs. He said, Markle is a hack. Take that, Harmon. Yeah. Macklin's success rates on the on the out, the nine, the flat, and curl are some of the best recorded this year. If anything, Macklin's assignment in the Chiefs. That's in this year's ultimate draft kit.

No, I mean, but what, based on the film from last year? From last year. Yeah, if anything, Macklin's assignment in the Chiefs offense somewhat restricts what he can do vertically. Joe Flacco can take advantage of that. You've got a wide receiver who's 29 years old. This is not old, you know, 31, 32, now you're starting to say this is an old wide receiver. A 29-year-old who's been a top 15 wide receiver for two different teams, two of the last three years, who's now going to a team where Joe Flacco's number one target has always.

Been on pace for 130 plus targets. It's going to say, if he doesn't get 120 targets, I'll be blown away. I'll be shocked. So Macklin, to me, right now is being drafted, you know, in the ninth. He's risen now that he's gone to Baltimore. But what's crazy is when I look at the expert consensus rankings of people out there, he's the, the consensus is like wide receiver 45. You want to know why? Because they're making a mistake. Yeah, I already know why. It's possible. But the reason why is because everybody.

I don't have any problem with any of the compelling arguments you just made. If you want to say that he's the one, I am not willing to hand Jeremy Macklin the lonesome one role on that team with Wallace and Perryman and Woodhead, who I believe Woodhead will probably lead the team in receiving yards. So if he's a hot take. If he was the one, there's no way he could lead them in receiving yards, right? No, I believe he could. What? I believe he could. I believe the leading receiver on that team due to distribution could have 900 yards.

Okay. So you... That's a high... You must have... You must have Danny Woodhead very high. You must have Macklin in like the 70s. No. The 1970s. No, because I can give him 850 yards, which is what I and all the consensus experts that you're talking about have done. Yeah, well, here... This is good news, Foot Clan, because what this means is Macklin is going to stay where he's been. I mean, I've been doing live drafts. But this sucks to have to talk about Macklin this way. I've been doing live drafts.

Right now where the news is, you know, it's not super fresh. Macklin is still going, draft after draft, in the ninth round. And I think he's pretty much a locked and loaded wide receiver two. I'm not saying he bounces back to a top 10 wide receiver. I don't see that. But he's going to be a wide receiver two this year. And he's being drafted as a wide receiver four or five.

late in drafts. He's one of my favorite guys. So I think he bounces back. His talent has gone nowhere. He's a great wide receiver and in a much better situation. Sure. With a chip on his shoulder. Give me a boot. Yeah. Stay healthy, Jeremy. I like it. I'm with Jeremy Macklin on the Team Mac. Team Mac attack. I can't believe this. I know. That's so funny. Twilight Zone stuff. If I had a Twilight Zone drop, I'd play it right now. Yeah. I feel like you just chose him so that I'd have to.

Be depressed the rest of the afternoon. Sucker. I'm going to jump in here with a guy that I'm calling for a bounce back, but this has to come with a great warning. A great warning because I'm talking about big. Not an unwarning, but a great, an actual warning. This is a big red flag warning, and that's Big Ben Rothless Burger. I think that there is a massive bounce back coming for him. However, before I get into that, I just want to throw it out. He's still being drafted as the quarterback nine.

which the bounce back has to be pretty extreme. What did he finish last year? I don't have. Like 17 or something? 18 maybe. Yeah, I don't have it in front of me. But it wasn't great. But the way that people are drafting with him, they're kind of agreeing that the bounce back is here. But a lot of experts are not as high on Big Ben as I am. 18. So here's what happened with Big Ben in 2013.

He was the quarterback 11. He was a QB1. 2014, he was a quarterback 5. That's called the Martavis Bryant jump. And Martavis Bryant was the wide receiver 20 in points per game through championship weekend. In 2015, Big Ben only played 12 games, but his pace was over 5,000 yards, almost 30 touchdowns. And in that time, Martavis Bryant through championship week, was the wide receiver 13 in points.

per game. Of course, we haven't seen the full Martavis Bryant season yet, but I think that we're going to see it this year. Now, 2016, that's when you saw things kind of fall apart. The Big Ben only played 14 games again. That's also another giant red flag with Big Ben is the hell. But what I want to say is, I think he does bounce back. So if you can see him falling in drafts,

You know, that's why I want to bring this up is you could be in a league where people are like, I'm writing off Big Ben. And all of a sudden Big Ben is dropping to the 10th in your home league. I'm fine. I'm great drafting Big Ben right there. He is a great quarterback to have in best ball. Yeah, that's what I was going to bring up. I think he is because in a home league, it's really tough. If he's in the 10th, so what? You can cut him. You can stream him. You can do whatever. But in best ball, he's great because his.

His monster games are... They're humongous. Yeah. And this is also my calling here. Buy Martavis Bryant. That's what I'm... I am pushing this narrative. Buy Martavis Bryant while you can. Because I think it's going to be impossible to buy him after a couple weeks of this season. And just to go along with the warnings... I know there's a lot of warnings here for a guy I'm calling a bounce bag. But he's just going too early in drafts. He's ahead of Kirk Cousins. He's had a Dak Prescott.

So I just wanted to say, if he is falling in your draft, draft him. Well, and to your defense, saying Big Ben is going to bounce back doesn't have to speak to ADP value at all. Right. You're just saying that maybe you're just giving validation to the people drafting him at QB9 by saying you believe he's going to bounce back. I mean, it doesn't have to be a draft a value. A draft a value to be a bounce back. And so I think you've made a compelling case. And Big Ben, at least.

has done it before. I mean, he had back-to-back years where I believe he finished what? 11 and 5. And we've seen him have those weeks, even in his bad years where he has, you know, two five touchdowns weeks. Here's my last bounce back. We'll conclude this to do some mailbag. Probably have to sell you on this guy as well. But look, Adrian Peterson is my second bounceback candidate.

And so the first question I have to you is, you know, because I hear, oh, he's done, he's done, he's done. And Jason, he makes the comparison to Arian Foster. Oh, I'm going too soon. Well, and that's why I'm preemptively striking. Look, is 37 carries split across two parts of the season enough to say Adrian Peterson's done? Because that's what he had last year. 37 carries. And yes, the yards per carry was pitiful. We know the offensive line was pitiful. We know we got injured. But that's what you have to figure out as a fantasy owner. You have to decide.

is 37 enough to tell you that he's done. And if he's not done, if he's not Arian Foster, I think he's a stud and I think he's a value. He's never played a full season and not been an RB1. That's never happened in his career. So we have not hit that point yet where he's played a full season and not been an RB1. And so the question is, is he done? He's 32 years old. That's old. 2,400 career carries. But you could make an argument that the wear and tear, he had a full year off.

He's had a year off with injury before. You could say he's more in the 30 range as a runner. Plus, we all, I think, are willing to admit, Adrian Peterson's a freak. There is no one else in the NFL that you have a right to compare Emmett Smith or Curtis Martin to, but I think it's in the realm of completely fair to say that about Adrian Peterson. Curtis Martin ran for 1,700 yards when he was 31 years old. And so I put him in that freak category. And the last piece of the bounceback puzzle for me,

going beyond, you know, you hear camp and they love him, they say he looks amazing, is the team he joined, okay, and the coach he's playing four. Number one in the league in yards last year, this is New Orleans, right? But let's go back, let's look at the rushing yards. Last three years, I mean, you might as well print the same numbers every year in terms of what they do on the ground. Touchdown totals for the team, rushing touchdowns, 15, 14, 14. So now you have to ask, where do those go?

Sure. They have 15, 14, 14. How does that split with Ingram? You know, the rushing totals have been consistent for that roster. How do you split 1,700 rushing yards on the ground amongst Ingram and Peterson? And 15 touchdown. So for me, I'm going with the Hall of Famer. I'm splitting those in his direction. He's a double-digit touchdown possibility guy in that kind of an offense with the way, with the oddities from.