Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Bounce Back Players, Favorite Fantasy Offenses

important player for fantasy but last year they underwhelmed whether that was they just stunk on the field maybe they had some injuries maybe they had things not go their way now it's like okay was that the new norm or are those are there those players where that was the outlier and we expect them to bounce back and so we've got six guys here today we think are going to have good seasons here's the great thing about a bounce back player there is no player ever

who has a bounce back type of season, meaning they've done it before, who is not an incredibly important draft day value. Because the fact that they have to bounce back means that people are afraid they're not going to, means that they had a crappy season last year. Those are the guys that year after year makes such a difference for getting you to the championship. If you're right on them. Right. Then it pays off in space. Well, I mean. And hearts and clubs. Yeah. I think we're going to go six for six here, guys.

All right, Jason, why don't you kick it off? Who's your bounce back candidate? Yeah, the first guy, because we just talked about him a second ago, it's Sammy Watkins. I am a believer that Sammy Watkins will bounce back. And you might go, we'll bounce back to what his best season was, you know, I think wide receiver 17. But if you look at the career, here's what happened with Sammy Watkins. In 2014, there was one of the best wide receiver draft classes, if not the best wide receiver draft class of all time. You had...

Mike Evans, Calvin Benjamin, O'Dell Beckham Jr. Sammy Watkins was drafted over all of those. The Buffalo Bills traded up. They traded a first round pick to get him. To get him at the fourth pick overall, because that's how good a player he is. He comes in his rookie year, almost gets 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. Looks great. Deals with some injuries. Sophomore years coming in, injured, has a problem with his foot. In the second half of that year,

Oh, my goodness. He was unbelievable. If you take that second half, which was, I believe, nine games, he had 900 yards, seven touchdowns during that span. If he did that for the whole season, you're talking 1,800 yards and 14 touchdowns. It's also impossible. No, well, I mean, yeah, but the point is his capability as a player from college has already been seen in the NFL. That's my point. He can beat guys bad.

Matt Harmon's reception shows that he is a separator extraordinaire. He can beat them. Badly. So now the issue has been last year he had the foot problem. He's already had a surgery on his foot. Okay, this is very common, not just in the NFL, but specific to NFL wide receivers. We said last year that there's worry with this injury because that injury is one of the most common.

in the NFL for a repeat occurrence. And so we gave those warning signs. And he struggled. You went into training camp and he wasn't there. He wasn't able to get there. He sucked last year because of his foot problem. He didn't want to have the second surgery. But in January, he had the second surgery. Here's, I'm giving the unwarning sign. What would be? The unwarning. Yeah, the green light, the go symbol.

An unwarning sign. A very, very on birthday to you. Yes. We've got an unwarning. The unwarning signs abound with Sammy Watkins. Here's why. The repeat surgery, which last year we were basically calling for, that it's very common might happen. But when that surgery gets repeated, the wide receivers that have had that in the NFL, they come back and they succeed. Repeat foot surgeries have happened with this injury with Julio Jones. Anybody scared to draft Julio?

Sometimes. Sure, but I mean, where are you drafted? But no, I'll still take him. Emmanuel Sanders, Des Bryant, Julian Edelman. These guys have had to get that repeat surgery and then the problem's fixed. Now he was supposed to maybe be ready for training camp. And in training camp, they're going to bring him along slowly. Okay. It's not being reported that he's ahead of schedule. He is. In OTAs, he was running first team. Okay, so.

This isn't reports. This is what you see. He's the only wide receiver on the roster. That's all first team. That's another benefit, right? You got Robert Woods gone. Markis Goodwin. Yeah, he's gone. Yeah, they brought in a rookie in Zay Jones, who I like. They've got the efficient Tyrod Taylor, who when we dove deeper this last year for fantasy football, he's great. I think Sammy Watkins has the type of ability that he could be top five even on this volume team. I am saying his foot will not be the injury this year.

If he is re-injured, I think he is ready to have a full, you know, off-season, not a full off-season program since he was, you know, had surgery in January, but from training camp on, I love him. And right now he's going in the fourth round. He's the, you know, 19th wide receiver off the board. Sammy Watkins or Trell-Pry. Oh, Sammy Watkins all day for me. Okay. I think, yeah. I have prior higher in my rankings, but Watkins is going to have to move up. Yeah. All right. Cool. Bounceback candidate, Sammy Watkins.

The unwarning has been distributed. Mike, who is your bounceback candidate for 2017? I'm going to talk about another guy who had a foot problem. Jason talked about him. That is Des Bryant. It was an interesting year. I thought you're talking about Rex Ryan for a second. Oh, come on.

Oh. Just move on. You're supposed to just proceed. That took me a second to proceed. It's not a problem. He has. Shush, move on. So Desmond might be wrong. We make no judgment. Des Bryant. Yeah, exactly. Des Bryant. Interesting year. Thought it was going to be Tony Romo, an elite level quarterback. But instead you get stuck with Dak Prescott, which turned out to be pretty amazing for that team. However, you know, he was still, Dak was still a rookie.

Still learning the game. And Des Bryant also dealt with some injuries. He missed three games. He missed weeks four through six last year. However, between weeks two and 15, yes, those three games he missed. 90 targets, 49 receptions, almost 800 yards, and eight touchdowns. He also threw a touchdown, by the way. So you know that he's got that up his sleeve, just in case that has to be called upon. Here's the thing about that.

His pace for the season was 131 targets, if he had played all 16 games. 131 targets, you think, well, that's pretty low. That's, you know, 15, but that's like 15 to 17 range in targets. That's not outrageously high what you're thinking of a wide receiver 1. I want top 5 targets. Sure, if you're talking top 5, yeah. But Dez is not a high volume guy. Never has been. In 2014, he was the wide receiver 4 on 136 targets. In 2012,

The wide receiver 3 on 138 targets. He's much more how I view prior, by the way, because you have to be realistic with target counts there. So it's a good count. Right. It's a good count. And so his actual pace of production would have been 71 receptions, about 1150 yards and 12 touchdowns if you extrapolate everything out. And that's not to mention the playoff game. He was 9 for 132 with two touchdowns. And I know that the Packer's secondary is not.

terrifying to anybody, but it's just the fact that Des Bryant is very, very good. Please do not forget this. The last couple years have been rough because he's gotten hurt. Let me ask you a question. How much do you read into the fact that I think it was Scott Barrett, he talked about Des Bryant being one of the more DB dependent wide receivers, as in when he faces tough competition, his numbers go down. He's in a division where he has some tough, difficult matchups twice a year.

Could that hold the bounce back up in your mind? It could, but I don't want. Josh Norman being one of them. Yeah. Who has shut him down. I don't want Des as my wide receiver won. Right. But he's going in the back of the second, a ninth wide receiver off the board. But he's already shown you that he can be a top five guy. Dak Prescott, in my opinion, has shown he's going to be a great quarterback. There could be some regression now that teams.

have an entire offseason. Let's figure out how to beat Dak. But I think that Dak Prescott is just good. And that offensive line and that running game creates a situation where Des Bryant can thrive. And he will be your two. You don't need him to give you these wide receiver one numbers. Like I move, I move Des up too. But I worry about the ADP rising where we just talked about bouncebacks being values. It may.

If it keeps rising, it may go beyond that. It could. I think we'll stay. I think we'll stay in the back of the second. I do think this, though. If he's in the back of the second, you probably are having him as your wide receiver one, because you had an early first round pick. So maybe you went with one of those. No RB or something. Right. All right. I'm going to move on. I'll give you my bounce back candidate before you do that. I'll call him my wide receiver one and a half. Sure. Because at the back of the second, you're going to get another great. Yeah, you're going to get another guy just the same team. Another one and a half. And then we have a wide receiver one and a two. There you go. We're good.

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Have a little piece. All right. Moving on. I'm going to give you my bounce back candidate, and I really am going to, I enjoy this because I know it's going to be a challenge to convince you both that you should buy in on Doug Martin. Oh, all right. As a bounceback candidate. Let's do it. I'm open. My ears are open. And I'm going to make my case. And here's where it begins. And Doug Martin, you know, part of this is he's being drafted in the back of the fourth round. Okay. And we understand.

Let's put it out there. He's going to miss three games. Yeah, maximum of, so. Yeah, I'm trying to do 16 minus 3. You can't do 16 minus 3. Well, I was thinking I'm like, well, I got a factor in the 17th and then the by-week. Playoffs usually start in week what? You play 16 games. I get what you're saying. Yeah, you don't make the playoffs. So here's the funny thing, and we talk about the consistency of Doug Martin. And the funny thing about not playing football, which has been part of his career, is that you don't score touchdowns.

And you do not gain yards when you do not play football. So that's step one. Shout out to my man, Keenan Allen. Exactly. So we hear a lot about the inconsistency about Doug Martin's career. We talked yesterday or two days ago on the show. We talked about, okay, he's either had a 400-yard season or a 1,400-yard season. He's done the 1,400 two different times in 2012 and 2016, 15. But it's been due to health.

That's the real situation for Doug Martin. He played 16 games in 2012. He had 1,400 yards. He played 16 in 2015. He had 1,400 yards. In between years. Torn labrum had surgery. Missed five games with ankle and knee injuries. And then he missed six games with a hamstring strain. And so here's what's built into the Doug Martin bounce back for me. You have fear and you have doubt about Doug Martin. And that is reflected in his ADP, his average draft position.

You have the suspension that's built into his ADP. Maybe I think both of you would think it needs to be more built into it. I'm actually shocked. I'm shocked that he's a fourth round pick. Here's the thing. Disgusting. If he's healthy, I believe he'll bounce back. And that's what it comes down to. And the thing about Martin is this. He is very, very high upside. He's top five running back upside. If the reins are handed back to him.