Fantasy Football - Draft Value Picks + Trade Talk - Podcast for 8/21

and decide if he's a good player or not, legitimately. Like there are, do you guys like George Pickens this year? Yeah, yeah. He's been the wide receiver 36, 26, 41. George, is he good? I think we all think George Pickens is good. You can watch the game and you can see certain players, the physicality, the skill, and ability, and you don't, you know, you don't lay it all at their feet on whether they're productive. Sometimes you have to look at the quarterback situation, the offense, what's going on, and you mentioned the injury. everybody knows DK Metcalf could be one of the most physically dominant receivers in the game of football and it was proven with the paycheck. The paycheck is the, it's the same as Josh Jacobs after the bad metrics in Las Vegas. It's like everybody on earth knows that that guy is better than everybody else on the field. It just takes a scheme and targets. So I could not agree with you more. It's a great value pick and he won't be moving. Yeah, he's not going to move up.

People are kind of tired because he's going into his seventh season and it was a disappointing last year. He has disappointed his ADP for at least three straight years. Yeah, it feels like it. But he's, you know, he's not old. He's 27. He's still in his prime, obviously based on the contract with the target share. I feel like his floor, if he doesn't get the touchdowns this year, which for him, sometimes they come, sometimes they don't. He. has weird positive regression coming. He scored zero fantasy points inside the tin last year, which based on his utilization was strange. But his floor to me feels like higher than what he's being drafted as the wide receiver 22. I feel like his floor is like wide receiver, 2018, if he ends the season with three or four touchdowns. But if he ends the season with eight or nine touchdowns, he's going to be a top 15 wide receiver easy. How does he not hit his target?

I mean, is it a Arthur Smith problem? Like, is that the way he doesn't hit his target all-time high? Because he's at 141 for an all-time high. I can't imagine he's not above that. I mean, it's injury. Injury is how he doesn't hit it. There's just, last year, he was on pace to beat his all-time high before he injured his knee. And this year, I mean, I know that the Steelers are going to run the ball a lot for sure. They're not going to throw the ball as much as Aaron Rogers wants to throw the ball. percentage of the passes that will go to DK Matcalf will be 28 plus percent. And that's just one of those stats where it points to success almost always. So then my question comes in of like, the confidence has to also then be coming from Aaron Rogers. Because last year, Andy you read through you like, hey, George Bickens finished this. Like he was the wide receiver 41.

averaging just under 10 fantasy points in 14 games last year. Talking about George Pickens. He was the number one of the office for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah, it doesn't help that he's the example, right? Yeah. Play for the exact same team. So it has to be... It's 100% the quarterback switch. I mean, me talking about George as my my guy this year was I brought up the fact that he's played with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph and that... Shockingly, the worst combo was last year in Fields and Ross as far as catchable target percentage. So I don't feel like it was his fault. Aaron Rogers is going to put that ball where D.K. Metcalf can catch it. Yeah, and he does go to one guy when he has confidence in one guy. Like there have been a lot of, like they're still looking for a wide receiver potentially outside of Metcalf to help support DK. The nice thing is, is DK is not like this. Like he can go and take on a double team. He can get off the line of scrimmage and be physical.

You know, it's not an undersized guy at least if you need to hyper-target somebody. So, yeah, I think he's going to be one of those interesting players for sure. We'll take a break and we'll come back with Mike's value pick and we'll jump into some mailbag. This episode is brought to you by prize picks. Pre-season football is underway and college football is here. So don't miss any of the action this season on prize picks. Prize picks is simple to play. Just pick more or less on two to six different player stat projections. If you get your picks right, You can cash in and win up to 2,000 times your money. Price picks is also the best way to get in on the action on sports in more than 30 states, including California, Texas, and Georgia. Prize picks puts their members first. So all withdrawals are fast, safe, and secure. This time of year preseason, I love taking the young guys with opportunity that I like. Week one, I went Caleb Johnson and Trey Benson more.

and more and you know your boy cash so get in on the action download the app today and use code footballers and get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup that's code footballers to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup prize picks run your game this is an ad by BetterHelp These days, it feels like there's advice for everything. We talk about this all the time. You look at the reels and all the social media. You got the cold plunges, gratitude journals, screen detoxes. But the problem is, is you don't know what actually works. And the internet is full of information overload about mental health, about wellness. And it's hard to know what will actually make a difference, what's true. And so...

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You got to remember the story of Jordan Mason. Of course, we all know Christian McCaffrey, the legendary. He's going to be okay for week one, and then he is not. And it's Jordan Mason. He ends up being the guy. And it was not just a, you know, a add-a-boy you filled in for the running back position for our team. He was fantastic on the ground. Not so much catching the ball, but on the ground, it was awesome. In the first seven weeks, he was averaging 95 rushing yards per game. And they put the offense on his back at that moment. And he really delivered. You know, 41% of his carries went for five or more yards, which last year, that would be a top five mark. You know, you're talking about the percentage of carries going for five, those chunk plays. Who's the names in that list? Oh, Bucky, Gibbs.

Derek Henry, Bejohn Robinson. And then there's Jordan Mason in there with that. And so it was a great season before then, unfortunately, Jordan Mason went down. I think the same week as Christian McCaffrey to the point where like, okay, the season is over. We got to shut him down. Then the offseason hits. What are they going to do here with Jordan Mason, who was like they had to figure out, are they going to pay him? Are they not? They put a second round tender. on to Jordan Mason saying this guy's going to be a part of our plans, but then the Minnesota Vikings swooped in and said, no, we would like to trade for Jordan Mason. So we're going to, let's upgrade your draft capital. It's not a huge draft pick swap or anything like that, but we know that veterans often go for cheaper than they should unless you're the New Orleans Saints, then you pay a four and a seven for Devon Valle. But the Minnesota Vikings trade for him.

and then they immediately give him a two-year contract that has $7 million guaranteed. He's a part of their plan. Aaron Jones is coming off of a year that he saw the most work that he has ever seen. And Aaron Jones, Aaron Jones is 30, right? Let me tell you something that just happened in our point. Let me just confirm my Experts League, Mike, because Aaron Jones is going to be turning 31 this year. Okay, go ahead. The last two picks in the expert league draft, just so you know how things are going, 902? Jordan Mason, 903, Aaron Jones. Whoa, okay. So I was actually, when I got into the ninth. Aaron Jones is about you at that point. Well, look, I got into the ninth, in the eighth round, I almost took Aaron Jones at 808. Yeah, okay. And then I was hoping he'd, I was like, everybody's out on Aaron Jones this much. Maybe I'll slip around to 905. He did, and he just went. But I, but Jordan Mason one pick ahead of Aaron Jones. That is. Now, this is a best ball. So you're playing some upside. And Aaron Jones does not seem to represent upside in people's minds.

Because when you hear Kevin O'Connell talking about it, he says, quote, we feel like we've got one of the best combinations of a 1A, 1B running back in the NFL. The goal is to keep them both fresh. The goal is to keep them both 10 of 10. And then it's been talked about Jordan Mason will be our short area, short yardage guy and our goal line guy. So while, you know, this is not me banging the drum saying Jordan Mason is. Jordan Mason's taking this job. He's going to be a three down back. No, he is going to be in a time share for one of the most potent offenses in the league. And he's going to be the goal line running back. Like, it would not shock me to see Jordan Mason at eight plus rushing touchdowns by the end of the year. And you're getting him in redraft, you know, in not expert leagues, but at home leagues. Running back 40, almost the 11th round for that amount of touchdowns. He's just not a name that people know for sure.

I do, I wonder if you put Jordan Mason up against, would you rather have Jordan Mason or Caleb Johnson? Don't ask me. That is an easy Caleb Johnson. That is, that's tough. That's a really tough call between the two of those guys. Scataboo or Jordan Mason? Jordan Mason. Charbonate or Jordan Mason? Charbs, but they're very similar. Yeah, they're in similar situations where they are. the presumed backup, but you're probably going to be playable with the huge upside should the running back ahead of them that projects to not play a full season. Like Ken Walker doesn't ever play a full season and a 31-year-old running back. Aaron Jones usually does not play a full season. I've jokingly on Twitter, I call these guys it's a flex with benefits because this is the player, you can put them right in the flex. You can play them on a weekly basis and then.

Because it's not, you know, oh, he's only the backup. No, you literally play him. And then those couple games where Aaron Jones is missing and it's just Jordan Mason. Then holy crap, you'll probably have a top 12 running back that week. It is a bet that the Vikings offense stays successful. It is. That is definitely a bet on that. But that's just, that's how I'm betting on the Vikings right now. Some of the popular answers on the foot clan discord. So we got some value picks that they threw out there. Calvin Ridley, completely agree on that one. Do you guys agree?

Yeah, for sure. He's very undervalued. Yeah, they mentioned Jordan Mason. They mentioned Drake May as a value in their mind. And they mentioned DAC Prescott as a value as well. I am so in on DAC where he's going. I took Dak so high above. I'm in a Super Flex League near a turn in an expert league right now. And I took Dak way ahead of ADP where he is in quarterbacks because I just, I believed he was going to be better than a lot of the quarterbacks that were being drafted after him. And, you know, this was going to be a run. So I had to pick the guy I wanted, and I do think Dak is a good value this year. We have more value picks in the Ultimate DraftKit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Let's jump into the mailbag. Mailbag. Welcome into the mailbag. You can submit your question to the show by going to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. Click that submit a question button. Or you can dial our voicemail hotline 302464 TFFB.

We'll begin today's mailbag with a voicemail. What's up, ballers? I was wondering what you guys think is too late to draft a wide receiver in a 12-team full PPR. Love the show. Thanks, guys. I guess we're presuming two wide receiver spots here. That's a big difference, but let's go too wide. So was this a like a zero wide receiver type of a strategy? Yeah, I mean, imagine that like. you start off and you get value and you go running back, running back, running back. Are you wrecked? Are you ruined? Or you go running back, running back, and the next pick, you know, McBride falls and you take a tight end. Is that too far? Well, for me, it's wide receivers are always the place that I can find the most value later in drafts. So like if I, if I, you know, there's so many guys going late, like, Jacoby Myers could be a viable wide receiver too.

He could end up that way. There are a lot of players in that category. We just talked about where Debo is going. So I always feel like I can pile up a handful, right? It's also where you can take some mystery bags, the rookies. You know, maybe Pat Bryant, you know, you put them on your roster late in the draft. I can take more shots at wide receiver. There's more of them on the field. There's more of them with potential upside that we don't know how the situations are going to go, whereas the running backs thin out so quickly that you really feel like you're in a tough situation.

You know, how late is too late? That's a tough question to ask. I would want one certifiably reliable known target commodity at a wide receiver. I'll give you some hypotheticals of what could shake out. Let's say you're in the back half of the first. And you start, you know, McCaffrey for me. But let's, we'll put you in the middle. You get your mere Gibbs, right? It's a PPR, so wide receivers are going to be pushed up in the top. You're starting with Gibbs in the first. It comes back to you. You get either Bucky or Chase Brown. Yep. And then you get McBride or George Kittle. That's how you have started. Yeah, give me a fourth round wide receivers. So then you go, look at where ADP is right now. You're talking Devante, Marv, maybe, so. So as your one. It would be considered your one, but you got, when you go zero of these guys in the first few picks, you're Frankenstining. You're building a conglomerate of wide receivers to be it. So you said Marv and who? So Adams and Marv could be.

Your wide receiver one. What's the next round? Then the next round is D.K. Metcalfe. See, I'm fine with that. I would be. K. Mac, every then in the sixth round, it's like George, Tet McMillan. If you end up with Metcalf and McMillan, but you have five, four rounds of talent, like what are the running backs by Marv and Devante Adams? Let me go pull that up for you. Because that's what I'd love to know. So that would be in the fourth. That's the, it could be a quarterback too. That's the Breece Hall. Ken Bone Walker, Alvin Camara area. But the quarterback there is who? It's Hertz or Daniels? In the fourth is Burrow. Hertz is the end of the third. So do you want Burrow Metcalf-Tet? Or would you rather have Marv, you know, Metcalfe and late-round quarterback? Metcalf. I would probably go late. I would either take the tight end in the third or Burrow in the fourth.

Yeah, I mean, this is really, it's not necessarily what round. And this is what you've got to pay attention to in your draft, right? Because they don't always go according to ADP. This is why the ultimate draft kit, we've got them broken down into tiers. What matters is like you still have to have a certain tier, a certain caliber, a certain class of wide receiver as your first wide receiver. And I think we named some of those. D.K. Metcalfe, to me, I'm fine with him being my first wide receiver. And then you got to keep loading up and find that value and find that talent. But if your league is going crazy wide receivers, let's say you are in a three wide receiver full PPR and wide receivers are going way earlier, don't just be like, oh, I can wait till the fourth. The baller said I can wait till the fourth. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a matter of. DJ Moore. Is he, oh, would not personally love him as my one. I'm getting spooked, man. Okay. It's funny, DJ Moore 96, 98 receptions the last two years. Yeah, I mean, he, uh,

When I look at my rankings, it says I should be fine with DJ Moore as my one. My range of outcomes for him, though, I think he's a little bit riskier with Odunze, with the new coordinator. And, you know, I still have DJ Moore as the clear-cut leader of this offense at wide receiver. 41% consistency rating. But I can see how it doesn't go well. You know, Devante Adams is someone that I think, you know, he's got the Stafford risk we've talked about. But he is fine to be your wide receiver one. You know, the volume will be there. When you got those other guys. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, obviously, that's not who you're hoping for. But if you've got true studs elsewhere, you know, so long as you're getting the best value in each round, you should be fine. Yeah. Yeah, no, that makes sense. Let's jump into another mailbag question here. All right. Brent writes in on X. In the UDK, you have Laser Mayfield as a bust.

But at quarterback 10, why is that? So, spoiler. No, what it is is Baker is in there as a regression candidate. So we do have some in the bust section. Sometimes there are some different things to pay attention to, some labels for players. James Cook is the same situation. It's just that Baker was up over 40 touchdowns. It's hard to repeat unless. You know, you have another magical season. Right now you've got multiple injuries at wide receiver. We love Baker. I think quarterback 10 is, it's a good ranking. It's not where he finished, right? He was, what, quarterback 5 last year? Yeah. It's not where he's being drafted as the quarterback 7 as well. If you draft the quarterback 7 and spin that six-round pick where there are good players there, and then he ends up at quarterback 10 and throws, you know, 29 touchdowns, which is not a bad season, but is, then you're wrecked for fantasy.

Exactly. And if you, you know, it's a good example of how the numbers dictate the way you look at players, not just your affection for them. We love Baker. We would love to see Baker throw 50 touchdowns. I would love that. I'd love that for a Mecca, Buka. I think you'd love that. Oh, yeah. But we have to be intelligent about the way numbers, you know, even the Aaron Rogers is of the world. ping ponged from 40 touchdowns down to 25, you know, that type of thing. Two years ago, Jordan Love was the quarterback five like Baker and threw a ton of touchdowns. It was awesome. And then last year it went down to nothing. And they profile pretty similarly Baker and Jordan Love and one costs you a six round pick and the other is where's Love going? Double digits? Yeah. And just for some context here.

In NFL history, we've seen 22 times where a quarterback has thrown over 40 or more touchdowns. Now, it's 11 in the last decade because obviously it's like one a year. 11. It's like one a year. We had three last year in 2023. We did not have one. In 2022, there was one. It was my homes. In 21, there was two. So it's like, you know how you get there. You had a fifth quarter. Hey, I'll take it. But is, yeah, it's the. That's the, what we talk about, the danger of the pocket passer is for them, when they get boosted in ADP, they have to do those types of things. Or they, because where was, what did Baker finish as quarterback wise? I thought he was a quarterback five. I can, I can double check it. He was higher than that. But it could have been four. But the point is, could have been, it could have been three. Could have been two. He was the quarterback three. Okay. But the point being, 4,500 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns.

He is not the number one quarterback. Like this is just how you got to play the game. You got to play fantasy football. You got to have rushing yards or you got to ball out like MVP level. Brandon in Miami, Florida, would you rather draft Gibbs or Jefferson from the four spot and half PPR? Gibbs. Yeah, I'll take the shot on Gibbs there. There isn't a like some years, I think. there have been a number one overall pick where you're just like, that guy has to be it. Like Christian McCaffrey after a number one overall season had to be it. Right. But I don't really, I don't look down on anybody taking, like if Jefferson went number one, I do not think that's wrong. No, it's okay. I think Chase is kind of the name we throw out there. Chase, Bejohn, Gibbs, Sequin, Jefferson, those five are fine, right? Is there anybody else in that category? You want to take Henry number one? Yeah, I mean, if you did, I wouldn't.

I'd be like, whoa, that's surprising, but that could work. I would throw C.D. Lamb into the same mix with Jefferson and Chase as far as range of outcome to finish as the number one. All right, question from Taco Mark on X. How do you handle managers dropping out of dynasty leagues? And then also, what if it's midseason? Oof, midseason. That's number one. Shame on that person. Unless life event, right? Yes. Better be a Canada event. Like, this better be a life changing. If you're going to bail. You are in jail. Yeah. Right. Even then, you could probably still make it work. So you get to make it right? For sure. Never been in jail. Can't tell you. You get at least one. Right? Yeah. Lawyer, smoyer. I'm calling the phone call. I'm calling the commission. To put the roster in. Yeah. Be like, oh, dude, you got to set that thing up for me. I'm not going to make it this week. Yeah, I mean, so how do you handle it? Obviously.

Some different thoughts. Midseason, you're going to be forced to kind of play maybe a roster for a missing manager until you find a replacement. I think you just set by the, take the projections of the platform you're on and just do your best. As far as replacing someone, like we have a passionate horde of supporters of the show. We call them the Foot Clan, and we offer Foot Clanleagues.com, which is. Number one, we probably haven't mentioned it for a bit. So it's a good time to bring it up of the, it's a great place to meet people because you're like, oh, I want to do this league. I want a dynasty league or I want another keeper league. Foot Clan Leagues. These people are passionate about fantasy football. It's also a good place to find someone to take over your orphaned dynasty roster. Yeah, and you can go to footclanleagues.com. It'll connect you right with that Discord server that we have. It's easy to jump on there.

I think there's about 5,000 people online right now. 60,000 are a member of that group. So, yeah, you want to find somebody that's going to kind of commit some time and make the league fun. And if you need to, like if you have multiple people drop out, sometimes it's better to just play the league with two less managers if you can't find two committed people to join. Okay, I don't know if Jason has an answer for this one. Joe writes in, what NFL coach would be the worst fantasy football manager? And why? What NFL coach would be the worst fantasy football manager? Hmm. What does it take to be a good fantasy football manager that a coach doesn't have? Because I think the OCD coaches would do great. I think Sean McVeigh would dominate a fantasy football. Oh, yeah, for sure. I think it's just a matter of... Dan Quinn with the backwards hat, you think he's taking care of fantasy? Yeah, he would crush. Oh, really? Yeah, I think he'd be fine. I want to know who's... Let me see you with the backwards hat. Let me just confirm. Well, it's not just... If you look like you could handle your roster.

It's not just, oh, Colin Coward. You know, you should maybe do a little Dan Quinn Halloween. You know what? I heard, I'm going to tell you something. I heard Dan Campbell who would crush. Oh. Now you know, it's a pretty good answer. Oh, it's a bad manager. Yeah, you don't look like a guy right now that could handle the roster. It's, it's Arthur. Yeah, he's just not a head coach right now. Yeah, but Tom, Tomlin would freaking, he would, he wouldn't do nothing. No. He'd set it and let it ride. Yeah. He'd auto draft. Yeah, he's like, but you know he'd be fine at the end of the year. He's that guy. Yeah. Yeah. That guy that's like, he'd get in the playoffs. You made no transactions. You did nothing. Why are you in the playoffs? It would just be he'd lose week one in the playoffs every time. Yes, as he does. All right. Jason, maybe this is a good one for you. Alec wants to know you can only draft one. Kyle Pitts or Troy Franklin. I mean, it's Kyle Pitts. Come on. It's Kyle Pitts. But also.

What if it was like Troy Franklin or Lil Bill? Oh, it's definitely Lil Bill. Who's Lil Bill? Bill Crosky. Oh, thank you. Bill Crosky once counted to infinity. I don't know if I enjoy the joke. myself as much or just hearing Alborna lose it every time you say one. Tomorrow we have a mock draft episode. Do not miss it. Busts episode coming up next week. Bold predictions, time machine, MVP shows. So much going on. We want to wish you a lot of luck heading into the weekend as well and make sure you have the ultimate draft kit. Make sure you join the Megalabole. And one of the cool things that we do, I don't know if we mentioned it recently, but we do give you a dollar for dollar credit. So if you've bought the UDK and you want to be an ultimate foot clan member, which is a year round subscription,

one price for the entire year. It's less than 40 cents a day. It gives you every premium product that we have. And we will credit your full UDK cost towards an ultimate subscription. So if you want to never worry about another separate purchase or what's in what premium package, we made this super easy last year. Autopilot forever. And it's going to have all of our in season resources. You've got the ultimate dashboard for in season stuff, which we keep adding to. We're adding trade stuff this year. manage all your leagues. It's a really good platform. You get it all. Yeah. So if you want to sign up and join thefoot.com and as long as you're logged in on the website, it'll automatically apply the credit for your UDK if you want to do that. Otherwise, if you just want the UDK, that's ultimate draft kit.com. That'll do it for today's show. Shout out to the cackling deucers over there. Thanks for holding it down today. We'll be back with another episode tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in. Goodbye.