Fantasy Football - NFC East Breakdown + Training Camp Begins! - Podcast for 7/22

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Welcome in. Tuesday. It's training camp Tuesday, man. Training camp Tuesday. It's a good sound. July 22nd. The year is 2025. And here we are, the fantasy footballers podcast. Mike, the fantasy hitman is here. Jason Moore. Present. Accounted for. Mike has created a company Slack channel. That's right. Just. for training camp highlight videos like we've always had the issue of did i get invited i mean i posted it in the general chat and i said i made this everyone everyone's invited uh we're like look look we like training camp highlights just like everybody else does we try to you know be rational unless the priors are being confirmed yeah huge off to a great start

And half of them. Yeah, well, that's what he does. That's what he does. But we never were like, I never knew where to share them because it was like, I'm taking over certain channels that are meant for specific discussion. I'm like, hey, check out this training camp highlight. I am now a member of camp highlights. Yeah, it's going to be great. Because we're there. And so many are outlandishly stupid. Like that people are posting a video of like. They're not stupid because I watch someone. I know. That's what's silly is. It's more the analysis of them. I'm happy to watch anything that happens at training camp. It could be the most basic, you know, pitch and catch in the world. But when the commentary is like... Was it the James and Williams? Yeah, where Jameson Williams like... She's been working on his route running on the route tree. Oh, he just caught a pass. Yeah, he just like literally turned around and got a pass. Like you were playing with your dad at a field.

Yeah, it's great. We're so excited for football that everything gets amplified this time of year. So it'll be really fun. We've got our final two divisional breakdown episodes today and Thursday. So NFC East today, NFC West on Thursday, and then we'll be through all of them. That way we can offend almost every fan base over the course of eight shows. It's really the number one priority. We want to make sure everybody just feels like... We put in work. You know, we sit down at these team meetings and say, okay, who are we talking about today? And how can we make their fans really on now? I was going to say, I guess technically eight fan bases like us if we pick them to win the division. Okay. And then the remaining whatever that is, 24 teams, you can hate us for the year. Sometimes, because sometimes you...

Try to say positive things. Like even pick them to win a division that people are, why do you hate this team? Yeah, it's fun. Hmm. I don't think any, I don't think the Eagles fans are going to be mad at us today. I'm just going to take, I'm going to take a guess. Or will they? Stay tuned. They could be. I mean, there's good teams in that division. So NFC East today. Mailbag, if we have time for it, we'll get into some NFL news. Some things have happened. We'll catch you up on that and. As you heard at the top, the Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now. If you want to dominate your 2025 fantasy drafts, it's available. UltimateDraftKit.com. The UDK Plus comes with the draft analyzer, which you can import your team from any platform and get a grade as well as all of your leaguemates teams graded and compare your team to theirs. And there's a ton of resources you can learn more about at Ultimate DraftKit.com. We'll jump right into the news.

News and Notes from Around the League. We already talked about Mike Williams retiring, right? Was that on the last episode? Yes. Maybe. Probably because I think that's when you became Q's biggest fan, potentially, Mike. Oh, yeah, yeah. I just want to make sure that that was brought up. Nobody has given me any. They have forgotten that show. Okay, we got one person nodding. Yeah, we did talk about Mike Williams. I said, yeah. I said yes. You weren't in the left side of my view. You're in the right side of my view. Also. You're not really an authority on what we talked about during the last show. Absolutely. That's very true. Well, here's some other news. The Seahawks have released Noah Fant. This was a money-saving move. It's a money-maker for Seattle, yes. So they save $9 million against the cap. They had a fourth-round draft pick, A.J. Barner out of Michigan last year, which he did have a handful of...

of good games produced on lower snap counts, better numbers than what Fant was doing. And then the big move, they have a 22-year-old potential future star in Elijah Arroyo out of Miami that has shown enough, I think, in rookie practices to where the team felt comfortable with those two youngsters to save the money on Noah Fant. And... Yeah, I saw this as a... When the move was announced that they were releasing Fant, I took it as a feather in the cap of Elijah Oroyo. That, you know, they must have had this in the back of their mind when they took Oroyo and saying, like, well, we're planning for the future fan is in our future. And maybe if it turns out he's doing enough, we can, we can let go of him now. He was the 50th overall selection in this year's draft. So you've got good draft capital. But he was a big riser at the senior ball this year. Yeah. So he spent a couple of years with knee injuries.

And so if you watch the draft day or the post draft press conference, you know, obviously the GMs are always going to tout up the guys that they just drafted. They obviously like them. But they were saying they felt like this was a guy who would have been a top 15 talent if he wasn't injured. I don't know what I trust out of Seattle. I think nothing. uh based on i trust all the ken walker stuff the gino smith comments mixed with the darnald comments at the time but you're always going to spin things the right way but this is confidence boost for a royo did you guys like i didn't i didn't really like his film personally i think barner is a more complete tight end i think barner will be i think if you look at the end of the year who has more snaps in the offense i think barner will have more snaps i think a royal wabmore production i think he's he's the wide receiver-esque type of athletic big play um

But Barner may seem more snaps on a week. If you look at, like, NFL.com's draft profile of AJ Barner, the first synopsis is a good inline blocker, not going to be a pass catcher. Although he did some last year's a rookie. Wild to see Elijah Arroyo. So, 50th, I mean, so second round pick, four years of college, and he amassed 46 receptions. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. But that was the two missed years. And then most of his production, like if you look, so AJ Barner had more receptions in college than Arroyo. However, those were spread out. I don't think, I don't think AJ Barner ever had 250 yards in a season. He wasn't really a pass catcher. The last season for Arroyo was like his breakout where he had a 73-yard touchdown, a 40-yard touchdown. 35 for 590 and 7. I mean, for a college tight end, that's not too bad.

All right, well, that's the new lay of the land at tight end in Seattle. We have a handful of players placed on the PUP list to begin training camp, including Brandon Ayuk, recovering from ACL MCL, Ricky Pearson, with another hamstring issue. It doesn't sound as gloom and doom, the Ricky Pearsall stuff, at least from what I'm hearing that. he could make his way off of the, and this is Training Camp Pups, you can get pulled off at any moment as soon as you're ready to go. But it's, I mean, hamstring injuries, like if you stick around the show, we will be talking about them because they will pop up. And when those happen in training camp, it is usually a really, really big red flag. There are players that don't need camp as much as other players. To me, Piersall would have been one you'd love to see get every single possible snap.

to try to establish himself. So it's disappointing to me that he's starting out on PUP. And this wide receiver core has been, it's just been through it, injury-wise, for years now. But Joanne Jennings has a lot of leverage at the moment. He does. So no Debo, no IUC, no Pierce, all as of right now. Christian Watson, Packers Whiteout is going to start on the PUP as well. That's fully expected. But Stefan Diggs is not. Defon Diggs of the Patriots. Yep. Okay. Which adds a little fuel to the... He seems like he can play football fire. I don't... I'm not a doctor, but I don't understand how he's not out there week one. All right. That's where I'm at, too. That's where I'm at right now. Chris Godwin will not participate in team activities when camp begins. Continuing rehab had an ankle fracture and dislocation in week seven. Signed the big contract. Usually a six to nine month recovery and a ramp up.

We know his recovery from the ACL a couple years ago was slow and not what we wanted. You mentioned recently when we were going through the Buccaneers. That Chris Godwin is off your board. You were choked up. You were sad. You were really sad about that. I was moved. I was moved by your. Oh, based on the price of Chris Godwin in the draft. Yes, I was. I did not like it. I did not like that situation because his little burst of hyper productivity came under a different offensive coordinator in a small amount of time. I moved Igbuka up. Okay. Off of this, not out of control, but I, Egbuka is, he's so interesting of this, of a prospect out of Ohio State. Look, when a wide receiver comes from Ohio or from LSU.

I'm going to pay more attention to that player just because of the history of success of those guys. But a first round pick for a team that didn't seemingly need to do that, that felt like this is the best guy on our board, so we're just going to take him. So I just make sure we don't leave him for nothing in the draft. And then Will Levis undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, Mike. Mike, did you not know this? I did. It's quite the laugh for an injury. I am not laughing at Will Lev as being hurt. I am laughing at the timing of this. It's a little strange, guys. When a team, like, we got the number one overall pick. It's a quarterback. And then you're the, so you are the backup. You are not getting in. You're just like, I'm going to recover and focus on next year. Make sure you pay me while I'm recovering and rehabbing.

But don't worry about it. I'll see you guys next year. Yeah, he's, that's what's funny. He's going to be out. And if Cam Ward missed his time, you will not have Will Levis coming in behind him. Any other news that has come through, Jason, anything you want to talk about? Yeah, there was just more smoke to the Terry McLaren situation saying that he is willing to, all options are on the table, whether he holds in, holds out, or requests a trade. Like he won't. He's not going to be playing football without a new contract. He did say he does not want to break the team up. He wants to bring them back together with a contract. I thought you were going to break the news that Mike now has the toilet trophy. Oh, that's great news. I thought that was going to be the breaking news this morning. The rules seem to have been skimped on a little bit. We were all ready to record sitting here with a time and everyone's sitting here ready to go. Jason's had this trophy for so long. And we couldn't push that button. Yeah, no. Because you was on a toilet.

Yeah, that part is true. Boom. Toilet trophy. Just saying that it be careful. The games that you choose to play, I will play them. I want you to play a man. I want you out of this. I don't want anything to do with. Our work environment is going to be just a nightmare. We're going to be sitting in the set ready to go at all times. Tell you what, the pressure for me, I might just hold on to this bad dog because sometimes we come up to the end of the show and we're like, Let's speed this up. I'm just going to leave. I'm going to go time out guys. Why don't you sit here? Wait a good 15 minutes. He's a little fiery. Because I have nothing to lose at this point. That's too much pride in the toilet trophy. No, no. It's just it's power. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you two are. I'll be rid of this by the end of the week. Yeah. We'll see. We'll see. The deucers have been supplementing with different.

Drugs. Guaranteeing that they don't receive that toilet trophy. Be careful what you eat this week, guys. Oh, boy. All right. Let's jump right in. Let's get divisional. All right. If you have not tuned in, a reminder, we're looking at offseason changes in upgrades, downgrades, player-wise, rookies, coaches. We're looking at team offenses, how they could function and give our takes at the end here. Who we think is going to win the division. Jason made the very presumptive. Like, well, all eagle stands are going to be happy. We're just going to pick you to win the division. But that's Jason's the chalk guy, so that makes sense. The Eagles. Yes, yes. Just so you know, by the end of this episode, I will be the only one picking the Eagles to win the division. You're right. Eagles were 14 and 3. The Eagles were 14 and 3.5. Fiery today. And Dallas was 7 and 10 last year. The Giants 3 and 14. There was a 302 point.

differential from first to fourth and um that's that's a lot yep but things change year over to year and we'll start with philadelphia the odds going into last year very tight between philadelphia and dallas philly was plus a hundred Dallas was plus 150 the commanders way down at plus 800 and the giants at the bottom so You know, the Eagles 14 and 3 won a Super Bowl, 8 and 2 and 1 score games. Their win total going into last year was 10 and a half. Vegas gave them that. They won 14 this year. It's at 11.5. According to our friend Warren Sharp, they have the fourth hardest schedule for 2025. But, you know, it was their year. They're the champs. You guys saw the new rings that they got, the championship rings. Those things are absurd.

Are you worried that they're going to break, you know, those little wings come out? Yeah, it did feel. You push the button and some wings pop out of the ring. The little wing pop out felt cheap. Oh, yeah? Like a, like a gadget. Like a gimmick on a Super Bowl ring. Yeah. I thought they were kind of cool. Okay. I mean, I would take one. They're almost, they're so close to not rings. You know what I mean? They're so humongous. Yeah, they're borderline helmets that just go on. Right. They're just gigantic. But. Yeah, that's enough AML for the Eagles fans to hate us that we kind of talked about the rings negatively. But last year, fifth and points per game, eight in total yards per game. But the defense, you know, the defense was number one in total yards given up in terms of they gave up the least. And the gap between what they gave up in the second place team was the largest gap in the last decade. So Houston was number two and total yards given up. But Philly was number one. And it really, their defense just.

They're so good. It just solidified. It wasn't that way at the very, very beginning of the year, but it happened really quickly. They invested in young corners and secondary pieces, and they just really dictated terms the rest of the way, all the way into the Super Bowl. Yeah, I mean, they got two incredible rookie secondary members that, I mean, that took them to the Super Bowl. So obviously they got better as time went on. And you would think that their defense could even get better this year going into year two for those players. I think the Eagles have the best roster on both sides, the ball of the entire NFL personally. And I love that they have a hard strength of schedule. Because one of the most frustrating things last year with this great team, especially down the stretch, was that you, from the passing game, you'd get a half. You know, if you had Jalen Hertz, if you had A.J. Brown or Devante Smith, it was like...

You get off to a strong start. You feel like, oh, I'm going to crush this week. And then it was just Saquan the whole second half because they're, you know, they had 160 point differential this last year. So I'm hoping they're in a little bit more difficult games, other teams that can keep up with them. You know, obviously Dallas, if DAC is there, that will be helpful to not have to play, you know, DACLess football twice a year. You know, they play Kansas City this year. And so they've got, they've. They've got some teams that I think can score on them. They were just to, you know, kind of put numbers around that, Jay. They were the number one rushing team in terms of rushing percentage and dead last and passing. So from a, you know, and you love their defense. I love their defense. They're number one in my, in the UDK, their defense is number one for me. And that does, I mean, we've had this conversation with several teams that have good defenses, whether it's Detroit getting injured players back, although they just lost it.

defensive tackle for the year. The Chiefs. The Chiefs. Yeah, like when you have that situation that you can win on defense and by running the football, which look, the Chiefs, they can't necessarily win by running the football. Sometimes they run through the air. They're running back pieces. It's not Sequin. Right now going into the season, they just won a Super Bowl with this recipe. And this recipe should be what they're doing in the future. Yes, they replace their offensive coordinator. But Petulow wants to do the exact same thing. Been with Siriani for years. If I'm Philadelphia, I am certainly not changing what I'm doing on offense unless I'm forced to do it, which is what you're saying with some of the schedule stuff. But at the same time, predictability-wise, I'm going in expecting a heavy dose of Sequin, tush-push, picking my spots in the passing game when I need them. And so...

That's kind of the gamble with A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, and Jalen Hertz in general is the wide receiver utilization when you pass the least in football. It's not as attractive in drafts. Like, Devante Smith's kind of more attractive because the value on him seems to be there. But A.J. Brown's the one that's harder for people to move up into the upper echelon and give him his, like, as a talent, he belongs in the same conversation with Ammon Ra. and these guys, but as a piece of this offense, the volume, it does make you hesitate at times. It does where he's being drafted. Like I don't blame anyone for where he's going in the draft. He is usually like that next best wide receiver off the board, but you can see the path for what happened down the stretch where you just have a lot of disappearing games. And obviously his talent is. We got numbers there from Rich Rebar, 2.5 targets.

per game in the second half of seasons. Dude, that's exactly. Come on, other teams. Be better. But five in the first half, which was like fifth. So his first half targets, great. Second half, you don't need to. 32 total targets in the second half. Malik Neighbors, who was trailing in almost every game, 98. I will say this. I would rather have a player who is part of the reason they don't need to pass in the second half. Yeah. You know, it's like a lot of times. In former years, I should say, we don't do this that much anymore as an industry, but it used to be like, oh, you want the garbage time, or, you know, you think that garbage time players are bad, but it's like if your team is scoring points to get to the point where you're doing this, then, yeah, maybe A.J. Brown had a hundred and a touchdown in the first half, and you're disappointed in the second half that you didn't get more, but he, you know, he's a great player. And then obviously if...

With either of these guys, with A.J. Brown with Devante Smith, if either one go down to an injury, the other becomes so valuable. They, if you're, I mean, they were in the Super Bowl two years ago and 14 and 3 that season as well. They had a little bit of a regression into second place in the East, 11 and 6, lost in the wild card. You know, teams are going to have that game circled, everyone on their calendar. So in that regard, you know, what they did last year was like a historically. low pass rate. Yes. It was like the third lowest in the last 10 years. So at least you could expect it to flip a little bit. Also, that comes part and parcel with, they got, they were very fortunate injury wise last year. Like Sequin Barclay. Super Bowl winners generally are. I mean, they, Super Bowl, Super Bowl Berkeley had 378 carries in the regular season and 104 more in the playoffs. So I think that's the, the, the question now is what, what are you doing with Saquan

bypassing Berkeley by any means. This is a, let's say you're at the 102 and Jamar Chase goes off. Like, are you, like, are you actively seeking Sequin Barclay? Or are you just when you're slotted for him? Because he's, he's right now, is at the, like the 103. But some people want Bijan and some people want Barclay. If you have the, the choice between the two of them, is it a definitive? I'm going Bijan or I'm going Saquan Barkley? For me, it's a definitive Barclle, a definitive Bijon. Well, that's because he's, yeah, right, because he's Superman now. He can't get injured this coming season. But, yeah, I mean, the workload of Saquan is both awesome and awful. It's what you dream of for fantasy. And if he can handle that another year in a row, then he should be the first running back picked. The numbers say, sorry, did you want to add something? I was just going to say, but when you have that.

level of volume, the chances that you're going to play a full season the next year is, you know, it goes down, especially for an older running back. It's not like he's, you know, he's a 24-year-old back coming off of, you know, 350 carries. This is, you know, he's 28. He's 28 and a half. So historically speaking, since 2020, 10 running backs have seen 330 or more touches in a season. Sequin saw 378. All. saw a decrease of at least 45 or more touches the following year, and only two played a full season. So two of the 10 played a full season. So that's what you have. Look, it's really, this is what makes draft season so difficult because you always have to come face to face with what you should do based on last year and taking a leap on what you expect to happen this year. Bejohn is my number one. I would take him, but it's not going to feel cozy.

Like bypassing Saquan will not feel good. That's what I mean. Because you are only... There's just no way that you don't feel like you could be missing out on what he did last year, which you could be. You absolutely could be. So... Which is what, 2,000 rushing yards? Yeah, and he could have broken the record. Now, is this you petitioning the crowd for your 101 in our League of Record draft? What? Where you have Sequin, Barkley, and Bejohn decision? I do. I mean, thankfully I have my number one running back already. on as one of my keepers, which is. So I don't have to decide who the number one is, but then I have to figure out who the number two is. You're really going to, you get to throw CMC and one of those two guys on your team. Yeah. I will say based on. Should trade for the 102 and get all three. Based on this specific conversation, end of drafts. Personally, I am targeting Will Shipley. That appears to be the primary backup. Like Kenneth Gainwell is gone. You think it'll be.

I think it'll be Will Shipley over AJ Dylan. Beat reporters right now are saying AJ Dylan's not even a lock to make the roster. And if he is on the roster, I don't think I think he's going to be more of a specialist. By the way, both times McCaffrey was the number one quarterback. He was injured the following year. Running back. Yeah, running back in his two adventures to the tippy top. Yeah, the Will Shipley versus AJ Dylan. That one's just, that's tough for me. I liked Will Shipley the prospect, but 511. 209 fourth round pick. I'm not sure how that will actually shake out. He had a nice long playoff run. Is that worth something? Nope. All right. So we've talked about the wide outs. We've talked about the running back situation. Laid it out there. I mean, Sequin was unbelievable. The offensive line is still number one in the league. So everything's in front of him. If he stays healthy, he should be insanely productive. And.

It's, you know, I'm not actively trying to avoid him by any means. It's just, like I take Sequin over Gibbs. Me too. Like that's happening. So he's just a one-two decision. Jalen Hertz, right now going as the QB4 in the fourth round. Which I think is decent value. To me, I look at Lamar as the number one quarterback. And then Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz, and even Jayden Daniels to me are all about the same. Dallas got her still on the team. Somehow, some way. And they start the year Dallas, at home against Dallas. That's fun. Then at Kansas City, then the Rams, then Tampa. That is four brutal. Fourth hardest schedule on the entire season. So that makes sense. Three division winners and then Dallas. That's what you want. That's what you want when you're this good of a team. You need teams that can challenge them. So right now they are the favorites to repeat as NFC.

champions and slightly behind the bills and my pick, the Ravens for the Super Bowl. All right, we'll take a break and talk commanders. All right, back into our NFC East divisional breakdown. The Washington commanders were the surprise story of the last season. Eight more games than they had won in 2023. They went into the year, projected to win six and a half. They won 12. It's the second largest year-to-year jump over the last decade, but only one of the 12 regular season wins came against the playoff team. And we've kind of talked about the fact that they had a really juicy schedule. It was a nice situation for... Last year. Yeah, last year for the commanders to, you know, for Jayton Daniels to have his coming out party. It was a nice schedule for that. In fact, if you remember, like, they beat, I think they beat Cincinnati and Burrow.