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Main show · August 21, 2020

Fantasy Time Machine + Credit, Blame, and Brown Spots - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21

RSSAug 21, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Fantasy Time Machine + Credit, Blame, and Brown Spots - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21

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Inside the episode

130 passages
28:28 ↗

And it just seemed impossible. It was an impossibility. It was an impossibility that coming into this year, you could say Chris Godwin will be the guy drafted over Mike Evans. And, you know, next year, if we come in and say that Calvin Ridley is being drafted ahead of Julio Jones, that sounds blasphemous. It sounds wrong, but I think that could be the case. You have a guy.

28:56 ↗

in Calvin Ridley, who has already shown great flashes, especially around the end zone. I mean, he had 10 touchdowns, his rookie year, seven touchdowns in only 13 games last season. So you have the between the 20s numbers that he's great at. And then if he actually splashes in the end zone, making up for Julio, that's where you have true fantasy success. Yeah, I think Calvin Ridley is the most clear.

29:25 ↗

example of a player that could do that. I mean, the parallels are similar and the hype is similar. I mean, it wasn't like we weren't coming into last year with Chris Godwin hype. And we're coming into this season with tremendous Calvin Ridley hype. And so, but I think he can pay off on that hype. And it's still hard for people to take him in the place that he belongs, just like last year, no one would take Godwin in the place that he belongs in fantasy drafts. And if you took him, it paid off. So I think Ridley has a great chance of doing that. No doubt. I'm going to go with Will Fuller here.

29:54 ↗

Okay. I think Will Fuller is a, I think we've talked about it. Mike, you brought it up as one of the most nebulous situations because everybody on Houston feels like a maybe, yet you know Sean Watson is going to be great. And you know that somebody has to fill the gaping target vacuum void of DeAndre Hopkins. And I think it will be Will Fuller. The struggle for Will Fuller has always been the injury concern, and it remains to be until he proves otherwise.

30:23 ↗

If you listen to him talk coming into the season, you listen to the way Deshaun Watson's talking about him, which again, that's just speculative. But he came in heavier, stronger, new trainer, and he's done a lot to change the way. He at least is trying to work on the injury problem. He talked about his mechanics and how he's rebuilt him, how he's got a different posture in the way he runs, because these are things that could have been leading to the lower leg type of injuries. He's also on a fifth-year option.

30:52 ↗

this year. And so he's playing for that Cheta. And he's been a player that has gone out there and he is such a difference maker for Houston. When he's been on the field over the last four seasons, they score almost six points a game more than when he's off. When we've seen that too, like they're just a better team with Will Fuller on the field. So many targets available in Houston, but he's got the 20 missed games out of like 48 career games that he could have played. And that's been the big problem. But he's not being drafted.

31:22 ↗

I mean, he's a seventh-round pick because people don't know who to decide between. In my opinion, he's the best with the most rapport built in, obviously with Deshaun Watson. He's who I'm banking on. I've put this in play in my dynasty league. I went out and actively pursued Will Fuller looking for the breakout. So, you know, we've had Rule 86 before. Yeah. It's the same with Will.

31:51 ↗

Fuller and Rule 15 or whatever number he wears because when he's on the field, he has Deshaun Watson's eye. So I can attest that Andy has certainly become a Will Fuller believer. He has been making those trade offers and trying to get him. He believes in him. I do want to argue for the other side, though, because I feel like when you look at Will Fuller, here's a guy that has not been able to do it for a season. He's not been able to.

32:20 ↗

have great fantasy success outside of monstrous games. Whereas Brandon Cooks has just been a superstar every year of his career until this past year when injury derailed him and he was the wide receiver 62. But before that, and this is for all sorts of different teams and quarterbacks, he was the wide receiver 14, 9, 12, 13.

32:45 ↗

dealt with a bunch of concussion issues, and he was not on the field that much last year and was a huge disappointment. But, like, if I have to bank on one of these guys, because someone, I think we are all in agreement, someone's going to score a lot of fantasy points for Deshawn Watson. He's not going to, you know, just get blown out in games and not come back. And I feel like both of these guys carry injury risk, but one of them has a much better proven track record. Sure.

33:14 ↗

Although he is new to the team, whereas Fuller has the report. That would be the argument to me on the Fuller side. That's where I give the edge to Will Fuller. So I'm going to bring my, this year's Chris God, I want to read you guys a couple numbers real quick. I want you to tell me who the number one wide receiver is from these numbers. Okay. Player A averaged eight targets, 4.7 receptions and 79 yards a game. Okay? Player B averaged.

33:42 ↗

7.4 targets a game, 4.9 receptions, and 74 yards a game. Who's the number one wide receiver out of those two guys? I know the trap that's being set. I see the palm fronds laid over the hole. I see you holding some hostess apple pies on the other side of the trap. You're avoiding the pungy pit very well. Yes. And that's Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper.

34:11 ↗

And I'm not saying that the reason I bring those numbers up is because those numbers don't dictate that one of those guys is a number one wide receiver for the team. You look and go, that's the same picture. Those guys are putting up very equal production.

34:29 ↗

The difference is one of those guys is making $100 million in his early draft pick, and Michael Gallup is, he's being drafted in the seventh, the eighth round. Michael Gallup was actually in strong consideration for my guys this year. I don't want to leave a draft without him. Now, it brings me, like he couldn't be my guy because I'm all in on the Blake out, Blake Jarwin, and I'm not.

34:56 ↗

going dub cowboys and my guys. I don't want that type of pain inside of my body. But Michael Gallup at wide receiver 32 is absolutely ridiculous. He would have been getting the Calvin Ridley bump that he broke out last year over 1,100 yards in 14 games. And he would have been that guy, that wide receiver 2 who's going to make the next step. But they drafted C.D. Lamb.

35:25 ↗

And I get that. I get it. C.Lame is an excellent wide receiver. He's an excellent rookie prospect. Meanwhile, Michael Gallup is going into his third year and is a proven NFL wide receiver. I'm not allowing a first round wide receiver to take all of the shine, all of the sparkle off of what Michael Gallup has been able to do. I would say that...

35:51 ↗

He's a perfect candidate for this fantasy time machine segment as a perceived wide receiver 2. I would also say that while that comparison in the trap you craftfully laid, that's not a word, was nice. Michael Gallup had a very incredible week 17 where he's the number one overall fantasy wide receiver. He also scored half of his entire season's worth of touchdowns in the final game of the year, which we talk about.

36:19 ↗

how that affects your perception on the whole year. He was not as consistent as Amari Cooper. Sure. And he did not have any stretches anywhere close to what Amari Cooper had put up. But he was a great wide receiver. I mean, coming out of college, I was a big Michael Gallup fan. I think he's a great player. I think the seventh round draft cost is indicative of the perception that the $100 million man is the only wide receiver that matters in Dallas, which is not the case at all. So I like him as a candidate to be able to step forward. Being drafted as the wide receiver 32.

36:49 ↗

a year after he had an incredible, you know, number 22 overall last year. That's a C.D. Lamb downgrade that's not fair. Yes, I agree. All right. Looking at, well, hop back into the time machine. Am I? We've always enjoyed it for you. Scott. We're going to find 2020's Mark Andrews, which is, I think, the most fun thing to do every off season. Try to find that breakout.

37:20 ↗

Tide-end. Last year you had Mark Andrews, you had Darren Waller the year before George Kittle, you know, just broke out. And really, it's somebody that has to be drafted late. It has to be somebody after the eighth round like Mark Andrews was. Not a rookie tight-in because they generally just don't produce. They're not going to have that breakout season. Maybe it's a tight-end in an under-the-radar offense. Not everybody saw Baltimore doing what they did last year. Oh, nobody saw that. Nobody saw Baltimore doing that because it was...

37:50 ↗

unprecedented. Yeah, that was ridiculous. Maybe a tight-in that flashes some yards after the catch capabilities. That's always nice to see. And somebody that's going to soak up a large percentage of the market share for an offense the way Kelsey and Waller and Andrews and Kittl do. So what are some candidates for a 2020 version of Mark Andrews?

38:13 ↗

I think there are so, so many late round guys that we haven't even brought up. Ian Thomas could fit this bill. The postman, Dan Arnold. That's what you get. When you mess with the postman, there are so many great options. But if I have to look at who I think will break out and, you know, he's been in the league a couple of years, hasn't got it done, now has an opportunity to really have a ton of usage.

38:41 ↗

I'm going back to the Falcons. It's Hayden Hurst. Hayden Hurst was a first round draft pick in the NFL ahead of Mark Andrews. He was drafted that way because he's a talented fellow, but Mark Andrews is better. I mean, Mark Andrews dominated and won that job, and they shipped Hayden Hurst off. But Hayden Hurst is desperately needed.

39:06 ↗

without Austin Hooper and Matt Ryan has always utilized his tight end. I mean, we forget how dominant Austin Hooper was as a tight end through the beginning of the year before he got injured. He was the tight end won by a wide margin. This is while Julio is going off. This is while, you know, I talked about from week five on that Calvin Ridley was the wide receiver 11. In fact, once they got Calvin Ridley more involved, you saw the three of them and Matt Ryan really start to catch

39:36 ↗

fire weeks five and six when Matt Ryan put back to back weeks of being the quarterback two and then he got injured. The following week he kind of derailed that. Then Austin Hooper got injured. You know, we've talked a little bit about Matt Ryan in his rubber band, you know, first year, second year with a coordinator. I think the Falcons offense could.

39:58 ↗

really, really explode this year. And the opportunity for Hayden Hurst to come in and fill that Austin Hooper role, the amount of vacated targets and utilization. And if you look at the depth chart, there's nobody here that's going to eat into Hayden Hurst's role. So he's, you know, he's near the eighth round. And I think if I'm looking at a late round guy and I have to take a probability check.

40:25 ↗

I don't see how Haydenhurst doesn't score a lot of fantasy points. They just don't have, I'm not, Russell Gage is not going to come in here and take all the targets away from the tight-in position. I'm not worried about that. And coming into the NFL, I did like him as a prospect. So it takes a couple years for a tight-in to break out. There's a lot of markers that say he's going to get a lot of work. And I don't think that Hooper was anything special. I think he was.

40:53 ↗

a perfect fit for the role. And Hearst is a very similar prospect to Austin Hooper. Yeah, Hurst at least has the athletic profile to be able to do that. I mean, Matt Ryan muddled through, I think Austin Hooper deserves some credit and some respect. He got it done. Levine Toilolo and those that came after Tony Gonzalez couldn't become what Hooper was. But Hearst has the profile to do it. He's also in the offense. When we talk about that offense that you know could.

41:21 ↗

at least be in the upper echelon. That's the one major concern with my potential 2020 Mark Andrews. Wanted to make him a my guy too scary. Chris Herndon. Chris Hernden tight end. Why is it scary to make the starting tight end for the jets of my guy, Andy? Because of his head coach. I've got a little drop. I'm going to try out for his head coach. You ready? Number two. Oh, you.

41:50 ↗

I can hear Al Borland from across the studio. You're a big fan, Al? Do you approve that message? I had no idea where you were going, but I love it. Number two. Oh, man. So there is a bit of a number two problem. And I, you know, but we're talking under the radar, offensive capabilities. Do you believe in Sam Darnold? Right. The necessary argument Jason just made for Hayden Hurst. Chris Herndon is the...

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