Top 10 Things to Remember for 2021 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/25

way exceeded as well. But say you're drafted as the running back 20. If you finished as the running back 22, I counted that as it was fine. You basically returned value. Rounds three through three through six, just an absolute negative correlation, a negative return on investment when you're drafting running backs there. Meanwhile, over at the wide receiver position, you're at least 50% or better. A weird anomalous thing, though, for me in my research.

Round seven for running backs? Those guys returned or exceeded value at a very rapid pace. The reason for this is because we're getting better as analysts as an industry at projecting the correct running backs. And so they are in the first and second. And then those next couple rounds after that are all the, well, it could be.

They're older. There's always a bunch of reasons why they couldn't hit, but they could be. And you need running back. Tariq Cohen has to go somewhere. I mean, he's got to go in the middle and somewhere. No, it's a good thing to remember. I love it. Let's get to number five. Number five. I'll keep it brief, guys. Great tight ends are my new best friends. All right. Great tight ends are my new best friends. I got to experience the absolute joys.

of being a tight-end one fantasy manager this year in multiple leagues. And frankly, I could get used to it. It's one thing to strategically accomplish the whole tight-in streaming world. We try to help you do that throughout the year. It can be done. Most people have to do that. Most people have to do that. That's a good reminder there. And you know what else is fun? Finding George Kittle in the late rounds or Mark Andrews in the late rounds. That's fun too. That being said, Kelsey Waller, you don't got to deal with any of that.

You just plug them in your lineup. You won the position each and every week. You got an extra roster spot on your roster each and every week. You can strategize whatever else you want to do. You want to put your mind energy into streaming quarterbacks or streaming your defense or depth for injuries. Guess what? You have one less thing to make a part of your strategic decisions each and every week. And I'm telling you, Kelsey belongs in the first round. Having it on lockdown was absolutely a delight.

My opponents feared me every week. And I mean, you get extra fab. Like you draft drafting Kelsey gives you extra fab or more waiver priority over your opponents because you're not using them at the position.

What a neat way to think about it. When you are drafting Travis Kelsey in the back of the first round, you are drafting Kelsey plus 20 fab or Kelsey plus 30 fab. Exactly. I mean, that's the truth of it. You are not spending that on a speculative Jack Doyle ad or a Moali Cox or a, you know, Trey Boo Boo Boo. Why did I just name three Colts? Maybe that's the problem. But, yeah, you know, next year you look at it and you say Kelsey Kittle, Waller.

distinct strategic advantages more than ever before in the wasteland of tight end so for me that was that was one of my big takeaways in 2020 number four all right easy like sunday morning sunday mornings roll around you're frantically looking for news you're setting your lineup you're done set it forget it let's go watch some football don't be lazy

And I'm talking to myself because I missed a few times on these as well. When you have a player who becomes IR eligible, move them. Make sure this is part of your Sunday morning process. Move them to the IR. Get that extra roster spot and go add somebody. This is your chance that you found a scratcher on the ground as you're leaving the grocery store. And it's just there. You know what?

This thing's probably, you're going to scratch it, it's probably going to go right back in the garbage. But it is a scratcher. It could, it could net you some sweet cash and you just found it and you beat everybody else to it. Like a couple examples last year. Jordan Reed, I picked him up on a Sunday morning because I had an extra spot. Now it didn't work out. I got to slam dunk on Jason and that felt really good. It felt bad. That felt good. And honestly, like,

I believed in Jordan Reed too, but... Boom, Shakalaka. Thank you. I could have perhaps taken that moment to try and trade Jordan Reed to Jason, a guy that I picked up for free. Jason was going to spend up to get him in the playoff run, the 49ers running backs. And here's the thing. You're looking at your waiver wire going there is absolutely nobody there. This is your chance to play what if, what could happen? What if a running back here?

gets an opportunity in front of them. This pairs really well with stashing rookie running backs also, by the way, but I looked at the 49ers situation, and Jeff Wilson was coming back from injury, and it was, well, okay, what if something happens to Jeff Wilson is all of a sudden the starting running back for the 49ers? And I picked him up on Sunday morning. I had no fab. That week, Jeff Wilson stumbled into a whole bunch of opportunity, and that singular move.

won the league for me, our league of record. I would have had no chance if I had not picked up Jeff Wilson right there. I would have not had a chance to pick up Jeff Wilson on the waivers because I would have had to, I didn't have fab. I couldn't do anything about it. So make sure you don't be lazy Sunday. Do this with all your leagues where you can move players onto the IR. That's where I'm really looking in the mirror at myself. I would hyper focus on a couple leagues.

I'd go check my roster on some other league, and I go, oh, man, Julio was out, wasn't he? I forgot to put him on the IR. So don't be lazy on Sunday morning. Just grab somebody who has potential. Lazy on a Sunday morning. You were very good at that this year. Not to mention, I mean, even if you took away the fantasy points you received.

The ability to strut after you make a move like that. That next week is, you know, you did it with Jordan Reed. He didn't pan out in particular. We're being able to do that walk, that dance right in front of somebody and say like, oh, let me go pick up that. Wait, you pick them up. When? Whenever you get a person before the breakout. Oh, man. You look like a super genius. You get to strut. And it feels real bad to be the other person. I can speak to that.

All right. I believe that means Jason is up next. Number three. All right. This one is the early bird gets the worm. And I'm not talking about having to wake up before your opponents to get a waiver wire pick in. I'm talking on the course of the season. And this is really, truly, truly, truly one that I need to remember. You two, you get it. But I struggle with this every single year. It's been two years in a row. I've told myself, I'm going to be better and I haven't. Here's the point.

spend your waiver priority and spend up at Fab early in the season. I struggle with it. I'm like, well, what if it doesn't pan out? What if it doesn't work out? What if I spend a lot and it's not the right guy? I want to hold and wait until I know that sure fire guarantee is coming. Jason, when you were a kid and you got, it was your birthday, you get 50 bucks or whatever for your birthday. Did you have that problem?

Back then, too, we're like, you'd go to the store, you have all your new money, and you just couldn't pick out a, like a toy or something? Did that happen to you? I don't think so. I think as a kid it was, well, I can have it right now. So, yes, please. It didn't translate. So I need to be more childlike in my, in my favorite, or my, my fab decisions.

Favor. I went fab and waiver. It's a favor. It's a favor. I like it. The favor wire. The favor wire. It's my favorite wire. My point is this. There's two advantages here. Advantage number one is that the true breakout players are going to get their opportunities earlier. You know, you look at James Robinson. You look at Justin Jefferson.

Really early in the season, they broke out. And the second half of it is, it's just math. It just makes more sense. Look, if I spend 50 fab dollars for someone in week one, I have the chance of 16 weeks of value. That's, that's three fab dollars a week versus if I spend $50 for fab. We're doing budgets now?

I mean, I'm just, mathematically, it makes sense. You get more per dollar. If you spend early in the season, then you get, if I spend $50 on, you know, a player in week 10, then I get, that's 10 bucks a week. If there's two things of Tupperware in the fridge and you don't know whether either one is good, why not take the one with more in it? Exactly. So I'm speaking to myself here because it's two years in a row. I have missed out on some players that I thought about going after. I didn't go hard enough after.

And I should have. So next year, that week one, I'm going to, I'm going to, you know, see who I believe has the best chance of, of breaking out. I mean, I don't want to overcorrect. But at the same time, like, I remember week one waivers are our show. I was talking up James Robinson. I said, look, there you go, good example. I believed in him. He was the one that I would have put my first waiver priority on. We're not in a waiver priority system. We're in a fab system.

And I didn't spend enough. He was who I believed. And I did not spend enough to get him because I just want to save, you know, be frugal. And what happens later? I wish I spent up and grabbed him early. I'm going to do it next year. Yeah. Just don't do the, you know, Mike's bringing up being a kid when you get that like water cash for your birthday and you go to the store. I love how kids, they will tell you they're saving all their money for one particular item. You get to the store. That item is out of stock.

And they are going to spend that money that day no matter what. Yeah. No, no, no. I really wanted this more than anything. All right. I guess I'm back up. Number two. No big slices from little pies, okay? You don't get a big slice from a small pie.

Beware, and we talked about this throughout the season, in particular with Lamar Jackson and Marquise Hollywood Brown, beware of low volume passing offenses. That's the reminder. You cannot get enough value out of these offenses no matter how talented the stars on the team seem to be. And I went and looked this past year, the bottom 10 teams in passing yards produced two top 24 wide receivers. It was A.J. Brown at number nine.

They're a low volume offense, but very efficient. And then Terry McClurent sneaked in at 23. Yeah. Good work, Terry. You know who is not on that list? Any Ravens, any Jets, any Patriots, any Giants, any Giants, any Broncos, any Browns, any Eagles, any Bengals. None of them made it into the top 24. The pie was too darn small. We always optimistically hope that talent trumps all.

But it is really, really, really hard for that to happen consistently enough to finish inside the top 24. You get the Jameson Crowder breakout week. You get a Sterling Shepherd week like the end of the year. You get a Jarvis Landry week. But they can't do it enough because the passing volume pie is too darn small. And then the predictive, you know, it's really hard to predict success for breakout wide receivers when they are.

starting behind the eight ball. And Hollywood was the example a lot through the year, but like Denzel Mims in his chance at a breakout, Jerry Judy in his chance at a breakout, you need a bigger pie just to be, it's hard enough predicting it. You need an opportunity. You'd rather have the number two for a high passing volume team than the number one for a low passing volume team. Just statistically it's the truth, but it feels bad when you're grabbing.

a team's second player over, I can get this team's number one player. Yeah, and we've seen that a little bit, even in the running back realm where, you know, the Saints for years had multiple options you could play in fantasy, but then you could have the bell cow on a low, a bad rushing team, and they just never paid off, no scoring opportunity. So you do need to read into those offenses. You do need to think about volume, right? Because Baltimore, yeah.

A good offense still. I mean, maybe not this year like they were last year, but still considered a good offense. You had good weeks from the Browns without question. You had good weeks from the Eagles or even the Bengals, but it wasn't passing volume. And that really, really hurt all of those teams in the bottom 10 in passing yardage. So I think that's a good reminder. The Hollywood rule, maybe, is what it'll end up being called in the end. But, yeah, no big slices from small pies.