Top 10 WR Rankings + Bust Possibilities, Yardage Leaders

It's just a matter of targets, right? Some of those other guys can get up in the 160, 170 target range. Michael Thomas has yet to hit 150 targets. Granted, he catches almost all of them. But, you know, it's hard if you're not hitting that 150 target number and you see and look at this season, okay, they added Jared Cook, Ted Ginn is back, year two for Treyquan.

Is his target number going to rise this year to a new level that it never has? I would doubt it. I still think he's going to be great, maybe about 150. But that's the reason for me is just like if he finishes with 145 targets, he's going to be a top 10 wide receiver for sure. Can he be the number one? It would take a lot of touchdowns. And we have seen the season with Michael Thomas having almost identical targets, but he doesn't put up.

a historically elite catch percentage on those targets. We seem to just put up a great catch percentage, and that was his sophomore year, where 149 targets, but he dropped to 104 receptions just 1,250 yards about. That's the problem, where he has to play at a pace that even as great as Michael Thomas is.

him being at the 85% catch range on 150 targets. It's not going to happen again. So that's where the problem is. I think we have seen him at the top of his receptions. The touchdowns, that's the questionable mark. But I just don't see him being that 11 plus touchdown guy. All right. I don't.

I can't imagine I'm not receiving the same target totals this year. Yeah, we're not arguing that. The targets will be there. The targets, he'll be 145 to 150 targets for sure. It's just can he walk away with 125 receptions? Or 105. Or, yeah. All right, T.Y. Hilton comes in at number eight. I have him at seven. Mike at eight, Jason at 13. Hilton has had a very interesting career attached a lot to what quarterback has thrown him in the football. The numbers last year are kind of insane.

When he's been with Andrew Luck over his career, he averages 80 receptions for 1,300 yards and 7 touchdowns. Without Andrew Luck, he averages 60 receptions, 982 yards and 4 touchdowns. Last year, from week 11 on, he was on pace for 107 receptions and 1,920 yards with Andrew Luck over the back half of the year when he was also limping. So the upside is great. We've seen a season where he's been the number 5 overall fantasy wide receiver,

his health, Andrew Luck's health, what this offense looks like. That's the question mark. I'll answer this question early. If there's one guy in the top 10 that I worry about having a bust season, it's T.Y. Hilton because he doesn't lean on 125 receptions for his baseline. That being said, he also doesn't lean on 10 touchdowns to be relevant. He's not going to be a guy that scores in double digits. He never does. If he ever did, you're talking about a top three type of player.

Hilton this year, what do you guys think? How much of this is kind of murky due to the Andrew Luck situation? You can't even really talk about Tybalt Hilton without talking about Andrew Luck. And Andrew Luck is the key to everything for Hilton, where 2017, Hilton was wide receiver 25 right before that. That's when he was sensational. So this is all about Andrew Luck.

to me and per Matthew Betts who is one of our writers this is specifically for Andrew Luck calf strains have one of the highest recurrence rates so it's it's very hard at this point to rally behind Andrew Luck as one being completely himself if he does manage to play all 16 and two percentage chance that he doesn't actually play all 16.

So I've still got T.Y. Hilton. Obviously, I've got him the lowest at wide receiver 13. That is him being statted out with Andrew Luck. I mean, we've seen a lot of games with Andrew Luck. And some of them in certain spurts of certain seasons have been outrageously productive. Some have been less productive. But essentially, his 16-game pace in games when playing with Andrew Luck is about 1,260 yards and seven touchdowns per every 16 games he plays with Andrew Luck. If you stat him out like that,

To me, he is, you know, while statting out every other wide receiver, he would be the wide receiver 12. So I, and I think that's about where he belongs. I don't see him as a top five guy because I don't see double-digit touchdowns in his future. I don't see 100 receptions in his future. So he is, he certainly has great talent, great quarterback, great offensive play calling head coach.

But I don't have him as an upper echelon guy. And I completely agree with you, Andy. Who is the one most likely to bust? It would be T.Y. Hilton, for me, who's not even in my top 10. All right. Mike Evans at number nine. I got him at 11. Jason at 9. Mike at 10. By the way, T.Y. Hilton's going in the third round at the wide receiver 10. So if you are going, you know, running back, running back, you're going to have a decision to make about T.Y. Hilton and other players to be your wide receiver 1.

which is the decision I've had in a lot of bestball drafts. It's the decision I've had in a lot of mock drafts. I'm taking him everywhere because I'm not over-reading the luck situation yet because I don't think I'm going to redefine Hilton. You know, I move luck from two to five based on the calf. If luck is proving like he's going to miss two or three games, that changes the equation. But right now I'm just looking at the upside of Hilton being my wide receiver one in the third round.

Evans is being drafted at 209 just ahead of him. His consistency ranked last year was number 11. He finished the season as the wide receiver 8. He had 86 receptions for 1,224 yards and eight touchdowns on 138 targets. Mike Evans is a great receiver. Yes. We know that. James Winston is an inconsistent passer. We also know that. He's the least, like of all the guys we've named, he's the one.

you know, kind of the quarterback play is going to directly affect the wide receiver play and maybe cap the upside. Andrew Luck. Drew Breeze. Big Ben. We got Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rogers and Deshaun Watson and then James Winston. Yeah, you have to bank on Winston being good enough in an Aryan's offense. Just.

to throw it out there. Evans' career targets thus far. 122, 148, 173, 136, 138. Godwin emerging in the offense. Bruce Ariens likes to throw the football. Is he being undervalued at 209? Do you think that's about the right place considering the Winston risk? I think it's a fair value. Yeah, considering the risk, but we have seen Bruce Ariens' offenses have...

Tremendous success, especially with their wide receiver ones. Larry Fitzgerald's career was completely revitalized and brought back to the forefront when Bruce Ariens was the head coach in Arizona, where Larry jumped up to 145 targets, 150, 161, all three of those seasons over 1,000 yards. Can't you make the case, though? It wasn't just Ariens. It was Carson Palmer. Yeah, yeah. He was getting a competent quarterback in the offense. Of course. That does.

That does factor in there. But Mike Evans has also had great success with James Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, like guys who aren't playing at the level that Carson Palmer was playing at during those years. One thing that's interesting, because I tweeted out the best Red Zone quarterbacks last year by pass rating earlier this morning, the one when you quoted Baker at number two. Right. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the worst in football, 36.

in the red zone. And that matches with the quantity, incredible quantity of red zone targets that Mike Evans had. He was in the upper echelon, didn't end up with double digit touchdowns. That would be an area that, you know, if things go right, if they're still throwing in the red zone, we know that Evans can put up 15 touchdowns. That's the kind of player he is. And that's what has happened throughout his career. His rookie year when he was wide receiver 12?

That's because they hit. The connection in the red zone was there. It flip-flopped the next year and then came right back in 2016. It was Mike Evans being at the top is directly correlated with his success inside the red zone. He is a great wide receiver. He's going to give you a thousand yards. But that's why I think him being at the back of the second round, it's fair with the risk mitigation knowing that he has to be.

up there in touchdowns to really finish in the top ten. Yeah, because he's not a hundred reception type of player. I mean, he's going to be in the 70s or 80s in receptions, which means you have to get a lot of touchdowns. And he only had one year where he was, you know, 96 receptions. But on that year, that was an outlandish 173 targets. And of course, he only caught a very poor 55%.

Oh, yeah. So, yeah, I mean, if he's much more with Godwin coming into the slot, gaining some more targets, I think that Mike Evans is going to have to have double-digit touchdowns to be a top eight type of wide receiver. Where we have him ranked, it's pretty much about where, you know, I think he finishes with about nine touchdowns, 75, 80 receptions, 1100 yards. He's good.

But I have a really hard time. I've seen some people that say he should be in that top tier, literally the top with the other guys. I just can't buy that with James. All right. Number 10 on the list, Antonio Brown. The goat, the greatest, you know, quick to put Odell Beckham at the top of the list with a new team and a new franchise. Antonio Brown's not getting that respect. Being drafted as the wide receiver 8 has some.

Questions about the feat right now, but all the reports are that it's, you know, day-to-day type of stuff. A-B. All he's done is finish six, first, first, third, second, fourth. Now he's being ranked at 10 by us. I think things can go, I think he has a pretty wide range of outcomes in Oakland. Here's what I believe. And I'll ask the question to you. I think Antonio Brown can end in the year as the wide receiver one. Do you believe that? No. No. Not at number one? No. Okay.

Top three, yes. Last year, 104 for 1297 and 15 on 168 targets in just 15 games. He should be heavily targeted in this offense by Derek Carr. He was the prize of the offseason for Oakland. We'll get a chance to see him tonight. Maybe. On hard knocks as the Raiders are covered this season. I can't wait. Are we drafting him at his floor?

when we talk about him being wide receiver 10 here. Yeah, I mean, I think wide receiver 10 is near his floor. You've got a guy who's paid so much money and is coming in that he, there's, I mean, if he gets fewer than 160 targets, then he didn't play 16 games. I mean, he's going to have so many targets and he is so good that he's.

He's, I think, a very safe wide receiver. I've got him as my wide receiver 8. While I say no, he can't finish as the wide receiver 1. That's solely on the back of touchdowns. I just don't think that the Raiders offense, Derek Carr is going to get him up to where he's been living in that 12, 13, 14, 15 touchdown range. And if he finishes as a great season 170 targets, a lot of yards, but he only has, you know, eight or nine touchdowns, then he's going to be about, you know, the wide receiver 5 or 6.

Do either of you have concerns over the foot issues? I mean, if you haven't seen the pictures, don't do it. Not yet. I mean, not yet. He's like, Antonio Brown will play through. That's what I believe. I believe if you had a game tomorrow, Antonio Brown would be out there, even with those feet. He would do whatever he had to do. And it's not like an internal foot issue. It's not a bone. It's not a Liss Frank type. This is just, you know, the skin on the bottom of the foot that is.

has been run ragged. So I don't see big problems. So last year, Derek Carr targeted receivers at an average depth of 6.8 yards. That's the second lowest of the qualified quarterbacks. And he only threw deep on 10.1% of his attempts. That's tied for fifth lowest. So maybe that's a product of what he was working with. It is. But okay. We'll see. I believe. Sure.

I'm just presenting the numbers. And saying that if Antonio Brown is going to finish, if he's going to have the chance to finish the number one, those two numbers have to change dramatically. All right. That's our top 10 consensus wide receiver rankings. We'll get into more wide outs tomorrow, into some of those more interesting names. Who's your bust pick? Jason, you said you'd be Hilton. I'd be Hilton. Mike, is there somebody different for you in that top 10 that you think has a chance of?