Fantasy Football - Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, Semifinal Time! - Podcast for 12/18

I'll just put it on display. Like we, there's nothing better as an example than our own situations and decisions. So guys, I have Devante Smith in a league. I'm in a semi-final in. He was in my lineup. Yesterday I made the swap after looking at the numbers to Rico Dowdle. Okay. Now, Devante Smith has not been very good. No. I mean, you look at, he had a number two overall finish in week seven. That's amazing. Since then, he's had three wide receiver two starts and low-end wide receiver two. And then he said four games where you were like, crap, I shouldn't have started Devante Smith. I felt like my team, which is favored against Mike in League of Shadows, would be better served by the consistency of Rico Dowdo with the upside versus does Devante Smith catch a bomb? What are your thoughts on that? No, I think you're right. I've had him in our... I think you should play Smith against me. Ah, yes. That tells you what you need to know. That makes sense. No, I think Devante Smith has been great. Devante Smith is...

someone that you can definitely start, but he is in a category. Like if you're looking at Devante Smith, who's been in a lull since the super squeaky wheel of A.J. Brown has demanded the ball and then received it, you know, versus a Jacoby Myers, who's been really consistent. I would probably go Jacobi Myers in that. There's a lot of other players that I think I would start over Devante Smith. He's still a fine, you know, flex option. If you were flexing Goddard or Devante Smith, you'd still go Devante Smith? I would, yes. I think I'd go Goddard. Yeah, I mean, that's where... I'm with you. I really like Goddard this week. It's crazy because, like, Jason has brought this up a zillion times. Like when Goddard is out and not a part of the offense, the Monty Smith thrives. When he's there, he's much more inconsistent. He's a C, I believe, right now in our consistency scores, which puts him at... Consistency? A consistent C. Yeah, he's 47% of the time above 10 points. That's a 50-50 shot this week. I don't want that. I feel like Dowdell is pretty guaranteed for 10 points. Yeah, I agree.

So that's that side of the situation. Now the other side, no Jaden Daniels, Marioo will start. Chris Rodriguez is back, full practices. You can kind of take your JCM and say goodbye. Stay by to Bill. Terry McLaren? He's looked like Terry McLaren in the last few weeks. Are you okay with him in this one? Are you scared? I'm okay with him, but I'm scared of the matchup. I mean, the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. This is a divisional game. So I think it's going to be really. hard-fought grueling battle. Like Mario-Ota is a guy that I'm really curious on because he's been very good for fantasy. Plenty of top 10 finishes. And like in our listener league, I had Jane Daniels. I've been riding Marcus Mariotta without Daniels. And it's been working great. I had the bye week. And now I'm here and I'm terrified because I'm starting Mariota. And so it's one of those things where I think Mariota can be okay. I think Tara McLaren can be okay. But you're not excited about the matchup. So if you have better options.

Pivot. I don't have a better option. And I would say despite a career high, 57% of the snaps. I am the city. I wouldn't play him. Don't play. I wouldn't. Maybe next week. No Ben Senate. But I won't play. I'm not going to play him. No. All right. This one's much more exciting. Green Bay, nine, four and one. Chicago, 10 and four. Vegas line, Chicago minus one and a half. The overrunner is 46.5. I do like Chicago to win this game myself. The line flipped. So Green Bay was favored? This is only the fourth time that these two teams have played in the Super Bowl era where both teams entered the game in the playoff picture at the end of the year. That's shocking. So Green Bay won 2821 in week 14. It went down to the wire in that game, if you remember. Chicago had the ball with the chance to tie. Doesn't that just mean the bears haven't been good for a long time? Because it's like the Packers are always... Yes. Pretty much. It's not been great for the Bears.

Throw some respect on Rex Grossman era. Yeah, the Hester era. That's right. Oh, man, Devin Hester. That was fun. But, you know, you have it. This is just a fun game. It's Saturday night. I'm so excited for this. It's going to be cold, but not to the point of damaging the game in any capacity. The wind should be fine. It's in Soldier Field. I mean, this is, this is awesome. And it's crazy because, you know, like Chicago, Chicago could be a very high seed, or they can still. like miss the playoffs yeah there is a i think it's a low odds but it could have but not only but it's actually realistic right like when you look at the things that have to happen it's like that could happen i i don't think it will but like they they have a lot to play for here both teams really need this victory and uh the the line was green bay minus one and a half now chicago minus one and a half nothing's happened on an injury front that affects that it's literally basically a heads up game in the minds of those in Vegas

I'm excited about it. I just talked about Caleb. We don't need to talk about him again. The DeAndre Swift groin injury, though, popping up on Wednesday. We know he's had a tendency to play through injuries even to his production detriment. He was like, high snap counts, big production last week. This has kind of been the way things have gone. All of a sudden, you think you can trust Swift and Menangai has a monster game. The groin injury now has to throw a little bit of, you know, hopefully we get another. injury report saying he's doing okay but you know the running game against green bay how do you feel about those two running backs i'm if swift is in i'm gonna play him yeah for sure he's been he's been too good a if the he's entering the week limited monongai at least becomes an option like a flex option or monongai right now based on what everything you know i would go quorum i would go monongai

See, I mean, that's, yeah, it's close. It's a heads up situation. I think I, I think I lean Minangai myself, but yeah, it's tough. Roma Dunzee, we don't think we'll be playing. He had the setback. We would love to say, hey, Luther Burden has this huge opportunity. He hasn't practiced in two days with an ankle injury. So DJ Moore, you're the, you're there. Yeah. You're there and there's an opportunity. Yeah. If Luther Burton plays, I do think he is a startable. Not over more, though, right? Even if Burden's there? No, I think I'd go with DJ Moore just because of the injury. And then if, look, Colston Loveland is a 8, he has an 18% target share over the last month. He is a startable option. The matchup is pretty rough. Green Bay, fourth on the season against tight ends, third over the last six weeks. But should, uh, should, uh, he's a wide out. Let's just call him a wide out. Should burden miss?

then, I mean, you just, you, the targets have to be consolidated to your, your good players. And Loveland should see a, I don't know, 20 or higher percent of the targets. If Burton and Rome are out, how high does that put DJ Moore? Like, would you start DJ Moore or Tara McLaurin? More. I would as well. I think there's a lot of players like Justin Jefferson, Ladd McConkey, Jacoby Myers, that tier. I think I would put DJ Moore above all of them and he becomes a very interesting playoff. guy and and swift is healthy i think he catches a bunch of passes too with the absence of those guys yeah that makes sense jacobs didn't practice tuesday or wednesday we know that if he can go he will and he can no and he will josh you're man think about think about the future he's he's a think about now yeah he says he doesn't like watching the game he doesn't have to turn it off nobody likes want close your eyes wattle does

Josh James is a mannable. It is still, no matter what psychological things you're having to do for your brain right now, it is 100% terrifying. Josh Jacobs, just because he played through an injury last week, doesn't mean, look, you don't want your star running back playing hurt. The Bears defense is number five against the running back position. They have stepped it up considerably since the beginning of the year. The matchup is a, it's not a plus matchup. You do have an injured Josh Jacobs. The knee hurts. You also have Emmanuel Wilson healthier than he was last week. Wilson was very questionable. He was sick. It wasn't an injury. No, but due to illness. So you've got a week removed from that where you can lean on somebody else. I'm not saying that Jacobs won't perform or that you shouldn't play him. I'm just saying he is riskier than a lot of other players this week. There is definitely risk with Josh Jacobs. For sure. I mean, tough matchup can be spelled. He will, he could only have one touchdown in this game. There it is. Yeah. There it is. With all the jokes,

am terrified to see Josh Jacobs on the other side. Yeah, no, no question. Jordan Love, four and one against the Bears in his career, quarterback 12 on the season. I don't, I don't know if I'm fighting to play Jordan Love. Would you do Stafford or Love this week? You should have Christian Watson playing. Jaden Reed is back. Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wicks, Matthew Golden. I mean, you have a wide array. Yeah, and this is usually so far this season. They kind of flipped the script from last year. They become a pass funnel where you can throw on the bears easier than you can run on the bears. So I think that love will be necessary in this game. And I could see this game scoring a lot of points. 46 and a half points on the over under right now. Yeah, I think, I think would it go Stafford or Love? They're back to back in the rankings. I would probably go Love.

I think I lean love as well. All right. I just want to know how a game itself scores a bunch of points, though. You have to explain that one to me later. Sunday games, Buffalo. I think you can see the leap we took to get there. Buffalo at Cleveland. The bills are 10 and 4. The Browns are 3 and 11. Goodness gracious. Buffalo minus 10 and a half, over under 41.5. I've seen some people be like, oh, I'm scared. Like Josh Allen against Cleveland. What? What are you talking about? Just play Josh Allen, man. Don't detour from the entire, like they say, you know, whatever, ride on the horse that brought you. He's like four horses. Josh's a stallion, man. Yeah, he is a horse. I mean, this is not a fair fight. The short fields that they're going to have, the opportunities like, he could have five touchdowns with 120 passing years. That could legitimately happen in this game. The Buffalo defense is a great play. Buffalo, it's 10.5 point favorites. The over under is low, but.

The gap is so wide that they gives Buffalo 26 points. So, yeah, don't, don't overthink that one. Agreed. What are, what are the Browns doing with their Shadour Sanders quench on Judkins utilization? I really wanted to make Judkins the start of the week because of the matchup. And then I was like, dude, I'm actually really terrified of it. Because he should be. He is their best offensive player. Fanon, I don't want to, you know, throw him out. But he is. a real true stud for them. And they're giving them the ball like 10 times while they're letting Shadour drop back 40 times a game. Well, stop it. Letting them and being down by a million points. This is the old Isaiah Crowell problem with Cleveland. And you can't hand it off when you're down. But when in the beginning of the game, like the first half, the first half when it can't be really truly out of reach, Judkins should have 15 carries or.

12 it's i agree it's also not gone very great for a judkins is averaging 3.6 yards per carry on the on the season since the buy week which is six games he's averaging 3.1 yards you got to give that man more work so i wanted to they tried 14 for 26 against tennessee 12 for 21 against the bears and the past catching like the past catching work of college of the college version of Judkins is not showing up. You have, I'm looking at the game splits with Shudor and without. His points per game is down about three. Targets stay the same. Yeah, I just, it's a little bit more nerve-wracking than I thought it would have been. The matchup is good. You can run on Buffalo. So I would still be willing to play Judkins. I'm just frustrated with it. He's averaging fewer rushing attempts with Shadur.

Harold Fanon, who I think you just have to keep starting them. It's not a great matchup. I'll play Fanon. But he's the entire passing offense. Exactly. Yeah, Fanon should be fine. I don't know about the whole Dalton Kincaid Dawson Knox situation. The utilization of three tight ends there mixed with the injury of Dalton Kincaid and the fact he's having to constantly play through stuff, which by the way didn't practice again managing a knee injury. Goodness gracious. It kind of puts Kincaid on the shelf for me a little bit this week. Because we've named a million tight ends this week. Colby Parkinson. There's a lot of good options. And Gadsden and Joanne Johnson, I know that Papa Josh and them are playing. And I just feel like Kincaid, we just don't know how healthy he really is. There are some things we just don't understand. If you're playing in the game, we don't know if you're 10% hurt or, you know, playing through it like Josh Jacobs. It's, are you of the same opinion, Mike, with Kincaid? Yeah, like I would play Fanon over him.

Yeah, that one's pretty easy to me. I think that there are some deeper. Okay. You're starting the week, Brenton Strange. Like, I think that's a better play. I would play Brenton Strange. And I would play James Cook, and I would not play the roulette with the wide receivers again. Agreed. So, and not, I would never play Jerry Judy. You can't make me do it. You can't even pay, you can't even pay me to do it. Oh, man. I really don't like him. You would love him. This is, this is why you hate him so much. Maybe, maybe. Is because. When you love somebody and they let you down. Yeah. When you love a prospect and then they go in and it's just you keep holding that hope for them. Because like Judy, Judy gave you a couple flashes. Okay. No, I was right. I wasn't crazy when I saw it. He was a first round pick. I think he was. Him and CD, right? He was taken in front of all of them. He was the 15th pick. Was he in front of CD? Was that the Jefferson year? I think CD went ahead of him. No, CD was 17. Oh, wow. Yeah.

Yeah, so he was two apart. Yeah, he was a great prospect. I'm thinking of a different year, but I was thinking of rigor. Ruggs was ahead of him. Yeah. Rugs, Judy, C.D. But anyways, when you love a prospect like that, and then they just really let you down, your heart turns bitter. Yeah, after a while you end up out. All right, let's take a break. We got more matches. With the U.S. Bank's Smartly Visa signature card, you earn an unlimited 2% cashback on every purchase. That's right, every purchase. 2% cash back at restaurants, 2% cashbacks at the gym, which you'll need to burn off those restaurant calories. Groceries? Yep, you'll earn 2% cash back on those two. New tires, new outfits, New York City getaway, all earn 2% cash back.

noticing a trend. So whether you're splurging on concert tickets, fueling up for your commute, or shopping for that perfect birthday gift for the bestie, you'll be earning unlimited 2% cashback on every purchase. Visit usbank.com slash smartly card to learn more. The creditor and issuer of this card is US Bank National Association pursuant to a license from Visa USA Incorporated. Some restrictions may apply. Aura Frames is the hidden gem that becomes the favorite gift long after the wrapping paper is gone. And you can enjoy unlimited free photo and video upload. Simply download the ORA app, connect to Wi-Fi, and start adding memories in seconds. Every gift can be personalized with a custom message that appears when it's first turned on, a very thoughtful touch for any occasion. And if there's that person in your family or your friend group that you really want to impress, that you hope years from now, they look back and they say,

I remember when I got that. That's now changed how I experienced life because new photos are always coming up and new memories are showing up. That's the ORA frame. And for a limited time, you could save on the perfect gift by visiting ORAFramers.com to get $35 off ORA's best-selling CarverMet Frames. Name number one by wirecutter by using the promo code footballers at checkout. That's A-U-R-A-U-R-A-Framers.com promo code footballers. This deal is exclusive to listeners. and frames sell out fast. So order yours now in time for the holidays and support this show by mentioning us at checkouts. Terms and conditions apply. This one's really interesting to me. You know, a lot of names came up in the starts of the week for this one. The Los Angeles Chargers 10 and 4 against the 6, 7 and 1 Dallas Cowboys. You know, Jim Harbaugh now 10 wins or more in each of the first two years in Los Angeles. Disappointing year for Dallas.

But Hampton and Dak are both starts of the week this week. The overrunners 49 and a half, Dallas minus two and a half in this one. Man. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. Really? Yeah, I get your hesitation because the Cowboys are now out of the playoffs. So they have less motivation. The Chargers need the game. The Chargers are the better team. Um. And so the fact that Dallas is favored by two and a half, that is really surprising. Yes, I would have assumed it would be two and a half for the chargers. What do they know? Yeah, no, I'm not hitting any buttons because I'm thinking the same thing. I mean, maybe just from a matchup perspective, they believe Dallas is still out. They're giving it. They're all. I believe they will. NFL.

They don't lay down. The Chargers are currently, well, Pickens would. Chargers are currently the fifth seat in the AFC. They play Dallas on the road. Then they play Houston. Then they play on the road against Denver. If they went out, they might still end up the fifth seed. So you're talking about... They could lose out on those three. Yeah, they could miss the playoffs then. You would imagine that they will not be favored. Yeah, I would imagine. What are the playoff odds of the Chargers? Because you would have what? The Colts would have to win to get in. The Colts would be the one to beat them, right? The Chargers, I'm looking at... It's like 90%. 92%. This is an article on, yeah, on NFL.com, right now the Chargers are a 92% chance to make. But I mean, with those, they could lose out. These three games, like if they're really underdogs in this game, I would imagine they're going to be underdogs on the road in Texas and underdogs on the road. If they're at home against the Texans. If they lose based off of the formulas, they would drop to an 87% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose this game.

Yes. Okay. Well, they still need to win it. You know what I mean? Justin Herbert, Amari and Hampton, Ladd-McConkie. It has been rough. Ladd-McConkey's season. It's been rough for the Chargers. I mean, the McConkey season as a whole, where he was drafted, we haven't really talked about it in, like, not talking about the little chunks of, you know, the first four weeks of the season, you're like, this is a complete bust. The next four weeks of the season, you're like, this is awesome. He is back. Ladd-McConkey's the dude. Their offensive line goes through struggles. Now he's basically back into, uh-oh, I'm scared, and he's wide receiver 24 on the entire year. I'm not that scared. I mean, the last two weeks have been abysmal, but that was against Philly. That was against Kansas City. This is the best matchup for wide receivers. Even though Quinn and Williams has really helped shut down the run, I don't view the Cowboys as having some great pass rush. Man. Man, I, I mean, are you scared?

You got to start at the top. Are you scared of Herbert? Yes. That's what I was kind of getting at is like it's been, some of it has been missing McConkey down the field. Herbert has not thrown. It's been one time in the last five weeks. He's been two touchdowns. Otherwise it's one, one, and one. And you've got two running backs they have confidence in. It should, it should work. I'm just saying they just. The week one pump fake of Justin Herbert. Yeah, the trajectory that we all thought he was. I don't think it was a pump fake. Their offensive line, they've, they've had so many injuries. I'm not saying it all, I'm not saying Justin Herbert's playing bad. I'm saying what you, what you dreamed was about to happen with Herbert season after week one when he goes. Oh, I lost some money. 318 yards and three touchdowns against Kansas City. And then it just has, I mean, over the last, his last five games played.

He is losing you your matchups. He's the quarterback 17 or worse. And keep in mind, quarterback 17 is bad in each of those five games. This is the every year you see the overemphasis of week one and what happens in week one. Because people traded for Herbert everywhere. People are trying to get first round picks for Herbert in our league. I will say this. I will say this. That's funny. Thank you for saying that. This week. the matchup for Justin Herbert. It should be great. I think you can play. He should have a lot of yards. I mean, obviously I made Gadsden my start of the week. I would be fine playing Ladd-McConkey. You know, I'd play him over Terry McLaurin and that tier of people, despite two bad games against tough opponents. It's not like over the last couple of weeks. We have thought Herbert was going to go out and have a great game, or we've been saying you've got to start these guys in these tough matchups. You know,

People haven't really been starting. I mean, JJ was fine last week. Exactly. That's all you need to know. Enough said. Herbert should be playable. Ladd McConkey or Zay Flowers. Oh, man. Wow. I'd go lad. If you need upside lad, Ladd is fine, but if you just need some... Zayflowers is safe for points. Christian Watson against Chicago or Ladd. Laid. Cortland Sutton against Jacksonville or Lad. Ladd. Sutton. That one's close. Where are you with Mr. Hasn't Hit 10 points since Week 7, Jake Ferguson, who had taken the league by Stormers here? No, U.T. Yeah. Okay. And George Pickens, Mr. Maybe I'll be here. Maybe I won't get on the bus. I'm still playing him. It was, it's too bad week, two horrifically bad weeks, but I mean, whatever it is, 10 plus of greatness. Kansas City 6 and 8 taken on the 2 and 12 Tennessee Titans.

in a game that means nothing. Vegas, Kansas City, minus three and a half, over under, 37 and a half. It means a lot to Tennessee. Gardner, Mintu, Hamm Ward. All right. Yeah, it means a lot to Tennessee if they want to keep their top pick, you mean? Yeah. And they could accidentally win this game. Oh, man. Because it's in Tennessee. Tennessee, don't do it. You know what? You know what? No. Yeah. Yeah, hit it. If you can find it, hit it. I think they took the button away from me. Andy's almost upset of the week. Heck yeah, man. Heck yeah. At home, Tennessee, been putting up points the last two weeks. People want to play the Kansas City defense. That's fine. I get it. You can still do that. I said I think they'd be medium. Tony Pollard somehow found the fountain of youth for the last two weeks.

31 and 20 fantasy points. Yeah, I think that was the last two weeks. We have not watched the Chiefs play a game in which they are not in the playoffs. Since we started the show. At least that they've been eliminated from the play. That's what I mean. Yeah. I mean, this is, we also would never have expected a line of three and a half against Tennessee with Patrick Mahomes. So Gardner Minshew. You don't know if you've got Rushie Rice. Are you playing? Are you playing anyone from Kansas City? No. Are you playing anybody from Tennessee? I could see a world where I still play Travis Kelsey. I mean, he's Kelsey and Pollard. I would be very, very scared of Pollard. Travis Kelsey is fine, but I mean, it's like Rishie Rice in the concussion protocol. Worthy with Gardner as the quarterback, not really interested in that. The game environment with Kareem Hunt, who's a touchdown machine, but.

The Titans are shockingly good against running backs over the last six weeks. They are the sixth worst matchup for running back. I think I'm just going to bail out of this game. Yeah. If possible. If you can, and you can. You can. You can. You can find guys on the waivers. I mean, you know, we're talking about. John Johnson, Parkinson, would you play them over Kelsey? Yeah, I would. And, you know, Audrake Estimate versus Tony Pollard. Tony Pollard's been on fire, but he's had easier matchups. This is a very tough run defense. And so I think I would go, I think there's other options for every position you would consider, which is really just, I mean, I guess the one questionable is, let's say Rushie Rice clears concussion protocol in time. He's close to the line of scrimmage. Yeah, I'm okay playing him, but it's wild. Yeah.

Cincinnati's 4 and 10 taking on the 6 and 8 Miami Dolphin, Cincinnati minus 4.5 on the road over under 47.5. Quinn Ewers. Ew. From the sewers. That he's never heard that. Texas. We are relying on Quinn Ewers to keep Devon H.N. going. Sweet, sweet Darren Waller. I don't think Darren Waller is like unplayable. You're going to have to throw to someone, but. I mean, with all those other options out there, I'm pivoting for this week. It stinks to take that away. Eight targets for Waller last week. Semi-finals to take it away. It's really, I do think Darren Waller- It's the fear of the bottom. It's the fear of the nothing. And it's a likelihood of touchdowns. Darren Waller has been a touchdown machine with Tua in this matchup. You almost would expect, like I'll bet you if Tua was starting.

he'd be like minus 1.30 for a touchdown. Zach Wilson is frustrated that he did not get the starting job. He's a little confused as to why, but we'll be a good teammate and do what's asked of him, said Barry Jackson. To answer, they put on his film. They say, here's why. Yeah. It's got to be brutal to be the number two string. And then when the first guy goes down, you're like, because you're not the two. That means you're not. It's a weird. That means you're a fake two. It's a weird situation where if it's just like if Tua had gotten hurt.

It's like Al's the number one producer and then Papa Josh is the number two. Right. But obviously the Falcon would take over if Al were to meet as a timely demise. Because we need someone with potential. If two had missed one game. Let's see the reaction to that. Yeah. Thumbs up. If two had missed one game, it would have been Zach Wilson. But this is now the, let's find out what Ewers has just in general. Of course. So Zach Wilson is not the future of the dolphins. Also, wait, where's the button? What button? Oh, just because it's. Breaking news. I want to hear how good this is for him. Josh Jacobs with a knee and an ankle won't practice again on Thursday. Thank goodness. Oh, thank goodness. He is power it up again, baby. I said it last week when he was sitting. I'll say it this week. He needs to be hurt. He plays.