NFC West Breakdown + Cam Akers Injury, Football is Coming! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/22

isn't an option, I think, that anybody's looking for in year one. No, not yet. In Arizona with what they have, a wide receiver with Christian Kirk, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green will be out there. And then Rondale Moore will fit into that offense. But speaking of the offensive weapons, let's start with Kyler. He's a late fourth round pick right now. The quarterback four off the board. He hurt his shoulder down the stretch, but he cannot bust. I would say Kylo Marie cannot bust.

Short of injury. As a rookie number seven overall, last year number two, despite an end of year injury that limited him. And really he was the number one through the first 16 weeks. So you look at that and you say, well, the number one through the first 16 weeks, going at QB4, the same consistency of the offense. What can go wrong for Kyler here? I mean, you have a, you look at the passing game and you go, well, what if it's past, oh, you got DeAndre Hopkins out there.

Yeah, I mean, I think what could go wrong is injury. I mean, that's it. And that's fine with me from a fantasy perspective because you're not going to play him if he's injured. If he misses games, it's just whatever. You move on and that stinks, but you can still stream the position at quarterback. While he's out there, he was so far and away better than everyone before his injury last season. I mean, he didn't have a single week until week 12 that injury.

where he was outside the top 12. That's not consistent. That's 100%. You are always one of the best quarterbacks to play last season. And he's coming into his third year. You saw that leap for Josh Allen going into his third year. He was, you know, his rookie year, I think he was in the...

the low threes for touchdown percentage. He got up to league average last year. If he throws a higher touchdown percentage than league average, which I think Kyler can do that in year three with this receiving core, you're going to have a great option. I've been taking Kyler whenever he slips into the fifth round. I guess the example would be something like Lamar, right? I mean, Lamar coming into last year looked automatic. Was a difficult ride for 11 weeks in the office. So things happen. Players don't.

always pan out the way you think they will. But if you run the football, you kind of move up that floor every single week to where it's hard to, you know, you certainly never have to stream somebody else. Like he's locked into your line. Yeah, the difference between Lamar is that is a slow. Yeah, Hopkins is the difference. Well, and the pace of play. The slow pace of the Ravens, the slow, you know, the low volume of passing, that's not what they have in Arizona. That's a good point. Out.

We don't have to talk too much about the wide receivers unless you guys are drafting them. Is there anybody outside of DeAndre Hopkins that you're drafting late? I'd rather be dead than draft a which is an incredible statement, right? Because if you're talking about a middle of the road Rams team with Stafford and you're looking at potentially three pass catching options in Higby Woods and Cup, maybe a fourth in Van Jefferson late.

And then you just talked all about the offense and how great the are in Arizona, pace of play, more plays. And you draft DeAndre Hopkins, I'd rather be dead than touching another past kid. DeAndre Hopkins target market share is and always has been outlandishly high among the three or four most targeted players in the NFL every single season. So with Robert Woods and Cooper Cup, they're sharing that load. Here it's like it all goes to Hopkins. But are, is there at least a possibility?

that AJ Green isn't completely dust yet. I mean, you got to leave, it looked like it, but you've got to leave the option open. Arizona clearly does not think he is. They gave him a lot of money for a short-term contract. And yes, Hopkins is going to command 27 plus percent of the targets. But what if AJ Green is at like 22% of the targets? I mean, we haven't seen.

That happened yet for a Kyla Murray's secondary wide receiver. Jason doesn't want to talk about this. It just means that the offense is bad. If he gets 20% of the targets, that means that the offense isn't moving. Yeah, I mean, I don't want to sit here and have another offseason debating the merits of AJ Green's potential. Last year he came out and he was a disaster for fantasy owners. Christian Kirk would actually be the player I would take a shot on personally. If you want to say there's going to be a wide receiver two that emerges, I would rather put it there. That's fine. And that's a very viable opinion.

that AJ Green has manipulated the Cardinals into a foolish signing on his name alone, then you go with somebody with youth and upside. I don't think he's completely done, Mike. I think that he could be a touchdown valuable player in Arizona. People want to talk about last year's separation totals. You go back and look at every elite year that AJ Green's ever had, at least the metrics that the NFL tracks.

He's not an elite separator, neither is Alan Robinson. He goes and gets the ball in contested space, which is what the red zone's all about. It's a lot better situation than it was last year. Passer-wise. He doesn't have to be the number one on the team. He's going in basically the 16th round. I don't think eight touchdowns is out of the equation for AJ Green starting every snap. I'm definitely not caping for AJ Green. No, you can be that guy this year.

He is definitely on my list of, yeah, why not? Most important must draft players. That's your list, AJ. Sure. Number one. All right. Let's move on to the running backs here in Arizona because we can't leave without, that's a debate. That's a discussion. Chase Edmonds, James Connor. Right now Edmonds going in the sixth round, Connor in the ninth round, both of them outside the top 24. Again, for a great offense where a very.

I would say sluggish-looking King and Drake still produce for fantasy by the season's end. How do people go about making this decision? James Connor right now looks, obviously, he's the better value. I just don't know what that means in this offense. I guess you're betting on they get around the goal line and James Connor takes the ball. Yeah, for me, Arizona, the running back situation, I mean, you can go back.

to the early off season. And I was very bearish on Chase Edmonds because everybody had, he was, anointed. He was the hype man of a particular season during, or month or so during the off season. And then they had James Connor, who people are, people are way off of James Connor. Speaking of dust.

Fantasy football players think that James Connor is dust, and him coming in proves no competition to Chase Edmonds. But now that we're getting closer to actual redraft season, and Chase Edmonds is in the sixth round, now I'm interested. Like where things were going in the early off season, I thought Chase Edmonds would end up in the fourth round. He was already in the fifth. He might end up in the back of the third, but his ADP held.

So now I am actually interested. Of these two guys, Edmonds and James Connor, Chase Edmonds is the one who has the juice. A great friend of the show, JJ Zacharisen, recently did an entire study of looking at if there is a pair of running backs being drafted in the middle rounds, the hit rate of the first running back, it has been a tremendous success.

The first one that goes. Yes. Not taking the perceived value. Not taking the value. The hit rate of us selecting the first running back in the ADP has been a tremendous hit rate for fantasy football. So that new study brought to light the fact that his ADP didn't get out of control. And the starting running back for Arizona, like Kenyon Drake was considered a disappointment last year on ADP alone.

He helped fantasy football teams, but he was drafted in the back of the first. If you get something close to what Drake did last year in the sixth round, that would be one of the biggest steals of the draft. The only thing I'll say here is that people should remember Chase Edmonds finished weeks as a top 10 fantasy player multiple times with...

five or fewer carries. So he had a number eight overall finish with three attempts. He had a number eight overall finish with five attempts. He had a 14 finish with two attempts. So he did it entirely in the passing game or one big play to speak to the juice that you're talking about. So the hard part for that, though. It's hard to see him having fewer opportunities this year. Right. But can you just extrapolate out while you give Chase Edmonds way more volume? He's going to be great. And.

Never. You can never do that. The Cardinal staff might know, no, that does not work for Chase Edmonds. So they went after James Connor, who is a much bigger bodied bruiser. Don't say bruise. You got to be careful with James Connor. James Connor, who to start the season was actually, he was actually, he was very, very good for fantasy football for the first half of the season. Edmonds on a personal level, I think is one of the hardest workers in most.

one of the smartest running backs in the game of football. So on a level of like wanting to get better going into this season, having flashed multiple times in multiple seasons, I think he's definitely more interesting now than he has been any time this off season. I agree completely. I just really want to keep him out of the fifth round because it really is a gigantic difference. You're talking about, we talked about Cooper Cup and Tyler Lockett. In the sixth round, you're talking about T. Higgins and O'Dell Beckham, who's, you know, I would.

I won't be drafting him. So there I would be in on Chase Edmonds, get a piece of this team, get a piece of the office, get the past catching work, and get the one that isn't necessarily always injured. Because if you're talking about sealing between these guys, one of them getting injured would vault the other one up. Certainly. But James Connor, win on the field has been effective. And I know we're ways past that season where he took over for Levi-on-Bel and he was incredible.

But meanwhile, Chase Edmonds has one carry inside the five in his entire career. Yeah, no doubt. And just to put a ball on this, we've got to move on to the 49ers. I told you it would be a longer show. But the discussion on James Connor's success is founded in his fantasy production last year, not in what the team perceived, what free agency necessarily perceived in James Connor, right? Not a lot of competition this offseason. Didn't get a...

a workhorse role and the Steelers moved on, right? And they drafted a first round running back because they weren't happy with their eyeballs with James Connor. And I think that that is important to know because he's moving to a different stage of his career as compliment, not primary. Yeah, I mean, he, in that breakout season, he played 13 games and then it was 10. And then it was, he appeared in 13 games at 2020. He was, you know, like a vapor. In week one, he missed almost the whole game.

which could have been injury related. So I can't argue that James Goddor is going to be on the field for 17 games. But this is certainly a training camp battle that could monumentally shift ADPs of these players. Yeah, or be just like a fantasy football nightmare. If you get the wrong guy and then on week one, the other one gets a ton of work. I will say this. They like both guys. I will say this. I have.

had been thinking about this, ruminating more and more. I don't hate drafting both of these players. That's how I feel. And if what are you trying to hit the what? What? Generally speaking, I do hate that. I don't want to cap my upside of two players, two running backs from the same core on the same team. They can't touch the ball at the exact same time. But go into week one and.

You find out it's actually James Connor, who's the Kenyon Drake role, and he's going to see 200 plus carries and a bunch of goal line work, and you have an offensive line, massive upgrade of the offensive line. I'm not mad at this. I, wait, Rodney Hudson, the addition at center, I can't do it. I just can't. Because I think that the team wants both guys to contribute, and I'm afraid of going into week one, and then both guys are going.

Both guys are just out on the field and it's perfectly even. And then you're like, you never know when to stay. But a six-round pick, I'm willing to do that for Chase Edmonds. And then your ninth, in your ninth round. You're willing to go six-nine? You're already, oh, that's nice. But you're already in the range where you are, you're grabbing at sleepers in the ninth round. Okay. But again, it's the decision-making process that's painful. I've been there.

It could be. It could end up as a headache. Here's the policy, Mike. You do it, but you were required contractually to cut one after week one to make the decision and then not have the choice so that you don't feel pain. All right, the 49ers, six and ten last year. Injuries, injuries, injuries. That was the story for the 49ers. And they still won six games. The second most injured team over the past two decades. I felt it. According to the football outsiders adjusted games lost metric.