NFC West Breakdown + Cam Akers Injury, Football is Coming! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/22

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All right, we're in the NFC West. The Seahawks last year, 12 and 4. They went 8 and 3 and 1 score games, which Russell Wilson is the master of, has the highest percentage of success in one score games of any quarterback that is currently active. And look, nobody wants to be on the other side of Russell Wilson at the end of a close game. He is a closer. All right, Vegas has their projected win total for the upcoming year at...

What do you think? I would guess 11. I would take the end. I'd probably say I'd had you go to the 10 and a half. Yeah. 10. 10 is where it's that. They were 9 and a half early in the offseason. It's gone up to 10. Last year they were 12 and 4. Won the division, lost to the Rams in the wild card round. Eighth in the NFL and points per game. It was a tale of two seasons for them in weeks 1 through 9. They averaged 34 points a game.

and only had a couple of losses. Weeks 10 through 17 that dropped down 11 points per game down to 23. And, you know, part of the recipe for their success was unfortunately for them, but great for fantasy, a really, really bad defense. They were on pace to allow the most yards and most passing yards in the history of the NFL. That's bad. Through the first nine weeks. And that changed a little bit towards the back half of the year as well.

So it was, again, the story of like Russell Wilson surprises you with a very, you know, on first half, bad second half, bad first half on second half. That was the story before, right? It was slow start, great finish for Russell Wilson. Yeah. So Pete Carroll still there, but Brian Schottenheimer is not. And that's been the storyline. Brian Schottenheimer wanted to pass the ball too much, which.

If you don't know much about Brian Schottenheimer, he loves to run the ball. And, you know, last year they had problems with Russ turning the ball over. Really, they, I was surprised coming in in preparation to remember that they won 12 games because they did seem very human last year, very beatable. And Russell didn't play great that second half of the year.

And so in this offseason, there was a conversation between Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer about the direction that they were going to go. And they literally could not come to agreement on how the offense should run next year. And so they parted ways and replaced with a coach that will be a run first coach. And to your point, this was, you know, Brian Schottenheimer is known as a running.

Coach. Yes. Now, the team last year statistically ended up very balanced. They're pretty much middle of the pack and past attempts, rushing attempts, which you would think, okay, that's a nice step for this team. If you want to put more trust into Russell Wilson, your MVP, who was the unanimous NFL MVP through the first nine weeks. But things really changed. Let's look at Russell Wilson, the fantasy option.

Well, you kind of know what you're getting with Russ at this point in his career, which is a very, very efficient touchdown thrower. But do you want him on your team, Mike? He's a streaky quarterback. You can ride him to several victories in a row. But then if the team loses its way a little bit in the passing game, he can hurt you because you feel committed to start him. Sure. I'm open.

to Russell Wilson. Right now I'm showing an ADP of like the middle of the sixth round. So I'm open to it. If you had to lock a quarterback in for the whole year, Russell Wilson or Tom Brady for every game, who would you lock in? Tom Brady. That's an easy Tom Brady for me. Because Brady's going a couple rounds behind Russ. Even though I, you know, end of season projections, I have Russell Wilson higher, but we've seen so much of his career is that very hot and cold,

So if I have to lock in everything, I would go with Brady. But you got to leave room for Russell Wilson in that what happens when it clicks? Like, what happens if he stays hot for the whole season? He's put up a number one overall quarterback performance. He's never been outside of the top 12.

You know, as a fantasy quarterback, like he is. He accumulates stats that always put him there. Yes. But he is streaky on the path. He is definitely streaky. He is definitely streaky, but you should expect over 30 passing touchdowns from him. Those things are known. So it's much like like title lock it right now. I don't want to, sorry, jump off the quarterback, but it's you have to leave room for.

the what if. I don't think Russell Wilson is not being drafted like he's going to be dominant. You know, quarterback seven off of the board right now. So he's at least interesting to me in the sixth round. You're probably drafting him though. Like he's off my board. Like if you had to name somebody that has no chance of being on my team, it's Russ in the sixth round. Because I can't draft a quarterback there that I'm not going to lock into my roster every week. And I wouldn't feel confident enough in Russell's history and the change of offensive coordinator where I'd be willing to do that.

100%, you're right, to illustrate the differences of what we saw last season. Last year, you had Russell Wilson through the first eight games on pace for 5,300 yards of 59.5 touchdowns on a 17-game pace. The second half was 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. Unbelievably good and horrifically bad. And if you look at what happened for the roster and what happened in the offseason,

Right before they made that switch in week nine, they had lost three of four games with Russ airing it out. And they change and they get back to running the ball, slowing the clock, playing better defense, the second half of the season. And next thing you know, Russ stinks for fantasy. Tyler Lockett stinks for fantasy. D.K. Metcalfe isn't as good. Now, if I have to bet whether or not they're going to suck or be good, I would bet that they're going to be good.

But the team wants it to come a certain way, an old school way. And I think that what we saw the second half of the year is closer to what we'll see this season than what we saw the first half of last. There was controversy around Russ and his happiness there. And I would imagine that there was a meeting of the minds in some capacity of letting him at least cook a little bit. But let's talk about the running back position because Chris Carson is so interesting.

I don't think there's a better running back too. You can have on your fantasy roster than Chris Carson, but I really, really think that's what he is. To me, you're going to the fine restaurant. You've got the chef's favorite you've had. It always fills you up. You're always happy with that choice. But it's not the same thing as taking the risk on the market priced special, right? That could end up at the very top of the fantasy.

rankings. I don't think that's possible for Chris Carson. I think we've seen enough for enough years. I don't think top 10 is in his range of outcomes. I really don't. What do you guys think about Chris Carson? Last year, his opportunities went down. He's always been efficient, but does he really have top 10 upside? Top 10 upside. RB 11 2019. I think if you're talking about absolute ceiling, yeah, he does because.

If the touchdowns happen to come his way, we've seen his involvement in the receiving game, which is obviously huge for fantasy. And this is an offense that wants to get back to running the ball. I would add to that that you have Carlos Hyde, who.

is gone. And while Carlos Hyde is not someone you're like, oh my gosh, finally, he was annoying. He had a couple of games where Carlos Hyde was, you know, in on drives where you'd expect to see Chris Carson. And with him gone, I think that that moves the needle a little bit for me. Do I expect him to be top 10? No. I think he's a very safe RB2, very similar to Darrell Henderson.

in the range of outcomes for me. I don't think that either of those guys really slips past, you know, a top 20 running back, but their ceilings are limited. Knowing what you know now about the Rams back field, Carson or Henderson on your roster. I would take Henderson for, I think that with Henderson, the opportunity for the offense to just explode this year is greater for the Rams than for the... I'm pretty firmly on the Carson side, Mike, so split the difference. I would take...

The upside chance for Henderson. All right. The wide receiver core, Mike, you mentioned Tyler Lockett. D.K. Metcalfe was the headliner last season. The wide receiver five right now off the board. Third most routes run at the wide receiver position. Second most air yards came into the league with kind of a narrative. And the narrative was, well, he's big, fast, strong. He's going to run straight. He's going to catch deep passes.

But they used him all over the field at different depths last year. Only 16% of the time in the slot, but he still ran a ton of short routes, had the most targets, 1 to 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, got the ball into his hands, let him begin the track meet on the outside at times. And where are you with Metcalf right now, knowing what you know about this offense and yet knowing what his ability is, right? Because the physical body.

It screams wide receiver one potential. It does, and he should end up as a top 10 wide receiver. I don't have any problem with that. But in, you know, ADP-wise, D.K. Metcalf is going right around that Calvin Ridley range. So, DK Metcalf, just speaking from ADP, there is essentially a 0% chance that he'll end up on my squad. Because you'll never pass on Ridley for Metcalf. Exactly. Meanwhile,

if you're, like I'm saying, of leaving the options open or the possibility open for this team to be a more pass-friendly team than we're currently expecting. D.K. Metcalf is being thought of as it's locked. Like, he's going to be great. He's going to be fantastic. We're cashing those checks before we even receive them, and he's being drafted as the wide receiver five. And he had the exact same falloff in the second half of the season that Tyler Lockett had. And Tyler Lockett,

is paying the penalty for it. Like Taylor-Lock is in the back of the fifth one. He's the wide receiver 24. And I relate to that feeling. I think it's appropriate because I think Metcalf being as young as he is at 23 years old, the body of work we saw last year, and then the years and years of Lockett, I'm with, I think that is appropriate. And last year, despite that season, you know, Jason brings it up all the time. All wide receivers are inconsistent, right?

Well, Metcalf was one of the most consistent from our consistency metrics, 68.8% of the time, a usable benchmark. I am very comfortable with Metcalf. I would probably bet on Metcalf hitting double-digit touchdowns above Ridley for sure.

Yeah, I lead far more with Mike here in the sense. I like Metcalf. I have him projected high. I think he's going to have a great season, but it's a matter of value in your draft. What do you have to give up to get him? I like other wide receivers better. I would rather have Ridley. And then Tyler Lockett is still a real true go-to option here. I know he's dead to everybody because of his inconsistency. But he did finish the season as the wide receiver nine inconsistently. But that second half that you talk about, Mike, you know, I brought up.

where Russell Wilson sucked the second half was good the first half. In the second half of the season, this does not include Tyler Lockett's crazy number one finished game. Tyler Lockett was the wide receiver 22 and DK Metcalf was the wide receiver 25. So the gap there. They both kind of fell off in the second half. Yeah. Well, the gap on the totality is so much different than the performance. For sure, for sure. And I would never say that Tyler Lockett is going to have. Five three weeks outside the.