Starts of the Week + Week 5 Breakdown, Power Wheels - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/6

Hey, Foot Clan, we got a great show for you today. And a reminder, we're going to be live on Twitch tonight for Thursday Night Football. Do not miss it. Enjoy the episode. The Fantasy Footballer Studio is brought to you by Samsung Galaxy. Visit Samsung.com to learn more. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. It's football time. The realist of the real football time. It is football time. Well, I guess the real football time will be, you know, a few hours. Maybe 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific at Ballerslive.com. Maybe then it's football time. You excited, Jason? I am genuinely super duper excited. You know Jason's excited when he wears a polo brand polo.

Well, I mean, you've got to stay on brand. Not a lot of polo getting played anymore, I don't think. Well, I think maybe we're just not wealthy enough. The polo is for. Brooks, you own a polo team? Yeah, Brooks probably is. Brooks definitely has a polo. Definitely. Welcome back, Brooksie. Hey, it's good to be back. Was he on a polo excursion? I mean, you could ask him. He's right here. No, I'm a lot. I think he was then, yes. So these fine gentlemen sitting next to me, Jason Moore, Mike Wright, they alluded to it. Tonight we will be live with you on Thursday night football. And we're excited about this. It's going to be fun. Going to bring our own fantasy footballer's brand of just emotion, reaction, fantasy football-focused analysis to the game. I am really excited to find. People have asked for this for a long time.

And the world has evolved. Like it's more kind of, you know, what do you want from your football experience? And even major networks have gone out and made alternate broadcast to cater to different people. We've seen the Manning cast. We've seen, you know, the All-22 channel now introduced by Amazon. So this is going to be a new angle. We're going to. talk through what fantasy players are actually experiencing and feeling through the game reacting to the plays on the field and answering fantasy questions as well during commercial breaks hanging out with you all super excited have had a lot of positive feedback people looking forward to it so don't screw it up guys is what i'm saying don't screw this up tonight no high level analysis talk about fantasy football

and probably some fart sounds. Yeah, a couple fart sounds and probably some tears when our own personal players aren't performing up to expectation. Yeah, I really hope Jonathan Taylor delivers a big game for my lineup tonight. Oh, man, I got some bad news. It's not. Save it for the news, Mike. Busy day today. Thursday night of football tonight, but we went over the game a little bit on yesterday's show, news and notes on today's show. The forecast going through the matchups for week five. Starts of the week on today's show as well in Jason's boom boom kicker, which I know he has been painstakingly working on. And part of what makes it so difficult to construct such a beautiful segment is he does use the like the feather tip or the pin. The quill. The quill. I'm not really great at keeping the ink on the pin or the quill.

So that is part of the problem. It's pretty messy. Very messy. My desk is basically splatterpaint at this point. Twitter at the FF Ballers, if you want to follow us over there, you'll also be let known when we go live. So at the FF Ballers, we'll send out a note when we're live tonight. Let's get into Never Not Working. Never Not Working. Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart. So for never not working, we're looking at biweeks, upcoming by weeks, and we want to take a look and say, how can we prepare? What do we need to know about the buy weeks? Next week we're going to have some more practical information of like, who should we maybe specifically pick up for the bypocalypse that are on the way? Week seven, there are four buys. Week nine, week nine, oh my goodness. Nine and fourteen, there are six.

buy weeks. So you want to be able to be prepared for what's coming on, but buy weeks need context. You have to approach each position differently. Over the last two years on buy weeks with four or more teams, here are the fantasy point differentials. Okay, the average top 12 quarterback has a minimal drop of 25.9 fantasy points to 25 fantasy points. So on big buy weeks, four plus teams, it's not. that huge of a deal at quarterback because quarterback's replaceable, right? Yeah, you start one. Yeah, there's streaming options every week. We give you our streaming picks. So I don't think you need to freak out about those by weeks. All that being said, all that being said, I have personally planned. If you've got one of the big three, you know, Jalen Hertz, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson that's been carrying your team.

You might, you know, Jalen Hertz is coming up next week. So I have kind of prepared a little bit. Yeah, you want to think about it. But the average top 12 running back score drops from 23 fantasy points to 19 fantasy points on those big buy weeks. You're not going to be able to replace your stud, but the median score goes down. So value touches. Take your two running back spots and look at their average touches. If you can get 28 combined touches on a buy week. You're basically in a good spot. So, you know, a target is worth more than a carry guys like J.D. McKissick, you know, that are getting targets every game. Somehow he is still available in 60% of leagues. We talk every waiver show about, like, there's no running backs. You can't pick up anyone that could start. You can pretty much always pick up a J.D. McKissick could play him. And at wide receiver, a top 24 wide receiver output has a minimal drop.

from 18.8 to 18.5. Again, you could find startable wide receivers, especially in the flex territory. You can usually, we'll give you some guys you can pick up not just for long-term stashes, promising rookies, but saying during the bye weeks, listen to the waiver show because we're going to say you got a lot of players missing. Here's who you can plug into your lineup. There's guys like Zay Jones around, usually on the waiver. Yeah, and the nice thing is everybody's dealing with by weeks. It's just like we talk about with injuries. You're like, oh, I lost this player. You know who else lost a player or your opponent? And everyone's opponent, because everyone's losing players all the time. But you want to prepare coming up for the biweeks. Running back is the position that if you can do the best job of preparing for and looking towards touches and opportunities and specifically targets, try to stash some of those players now. And then next week, we're going to dive a little bit deeper because the major buy weeks are coming.

And we're going to tell you exactly who to target, who to pick up. But look at your waiver wires now. This is going into week five, by week start, week six. And running back is different. It's all about the opportunity to target that. All right. Get up to 100% dand of protection. That is never not working. So I mean, we're always working. Always. With head and shoulders, scalp shield technology available at walmart.com. Use it every time you shampoo and see the difference. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Speaking of not working. Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for tonight's game against the Broncos. This will be the first game in his entire career that he won't miss due to injury. And that goes back to high school. He did miss a game, I think, due to COVID protocols last year.

First injured game for Jonathan Taylor. Too quick of a turnaround with the ankle. Jason, you said we should be rooting for this anyway. Get him back healthy in, you know, next week. Yeah, I mean, context there being that it's a tough matchup and two injuries. He's got the turf toe and the ankle. So you really want to have him heal up so that you can have the Jonathan Taylor you drafted with the first pick and not continually be. disappointed by the performance of one of the best running backs in the league. Alvin Camara with the rib injury plans to return in week five this week against the Seahawks. It's a good matchup. Put him back out there? Oh, absolutely. Yep. Jaylon Waddle did not practice due to a groin injury. I'm a little bit. Now he has more time because they had the Thursday night football game, so he's got 10 days of rest. That should hopefully be great news for getting him back out there. I am certainly.

more worried based on the fact that during the game, he left a couple of times. He was seen limping on the sideline. Then he'd still come back in and play, but he's not at 100%. And so, like, when I'm making my Draft King's lineups, I've really enjoyed looking Waddle's direction. I am not right now. David Montgomery didn't practice. It's a pretty bad sign on him maybe missing another week. Yeah. For them to call it day to day and be like, well, he still probably played last week. He's not practicing. Matthew Betts, our injury expert, when it happened, he said, you know, the mechanism looks like an injury, you're going to miss multiple weeks. And that's what I wanted to go with. But then the coaching staff is like, oh, this is day to day. Yeah. This is a new coaching staff. So I'm not the magician. I'm taking note. I'm taking note that you're a liar.

Because we knew it wasn't day to day. Jason, I got bad news for you. They're all liars. They're all liars. Yeah. Lying lie faces. Well, it gives him such a competitive advantage. Yes. Yeah. Kyle Pitts, superstar. 22 years old today. Happy birthday, Kyle Pitts. Didn't practice hamstring injury. Maybe is this like a hamstring birthday? Oh, yeah. Oh, coach. I got a, I got a. Party. I got a hamstring issue. Maybe. Look, obviously we don't want him to be hobbled. We've got to keep a look at the practice reports going forward. If he has to miss, if this is, you know, if this turns into an injury that keeps him away, then congratulations. You can score at your tight end position. Oh, man. Cool. Right now he's just been crushing you. The algorithm says you are correct. I mean.

This is great news for you, Andy. This is the time to double down. Him not playing is maybe the key to him scoring. I want to remind our audience. Do you? Yeah, I do. That you guaranteed the touchdown this week for Kyle Pitts. So I say that because I want you to have that glory because what, I mean. That's awesome. I will say this. Is this like Kyle Pitts is inactive, but then at halftime, they're like, just kidding. He was active the whole time. He's going to play the second half. Obviously, if he's not active, Andy is completely set free, right? If you make a bet and a player doesn't play, that's going to be retracted. The matchup is very good. Agreed. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers difficult, but the tight end is where you beat him. J.K. Dobbins. Didn't practice due to a chest injury. Oh, that's interesting.

was limited last Wednesday with the same injury, ended up full on Thursday Friday, so don't panic yet. Rashad Penny didn't practice due to his shoulder injury and Hollywood Brown with the foot. I think it's probably same old, same old for Hollywood. He was really good last week, missed some practice, protecting him from injury. What about Penny? I'm not personally worried about Penny. I know it's scary because it's Rashad Penny who misses so many games with so many different injuries. He had a heavy workload. And this was Wednesday practice. I think this is a day of rest. You've got to mark something on the injury report. If he misses Thursday's practice today, and maybe I doubt that we'll be out by the end of this show because they're West Coast. But we'll monitor it and tweet it out. But I think he's fine. I'm not worried about, I mean, I think he's a bad play this week, but I'm not worried about the injury. T.J. Hawkinson didn't practice DeAndre Swift, didn't practice Amman Ra, didn't practice DJ Chark, didn't practice.

Did the Lions have a practice? They all attended Kyle Pitt's birthday party. Oh, okay. That makes a lot of sense. So Swift is not likely to play this week. No, this is a team that has the week six buy. Yes. So that's a big deal. Absolutely. Amen Raw. I mean, Ammon Rae's timeline seemed like he would be able to get back. But if they've got a buy week the next week, this seems like I don't expect any of these play. Well, Hawkinson should play. But I don't expect Swift or Amman Raw. And maybe not chart playing this week. And this is in New England this week, right? Correct. Wondale Robinson, Cadarius, Tony, both limited in practice. I don't. Okay. I'm not going to believe they play until they literally step onto a field for a game based on just the routine we're in with them. But if they're getting in limited practice, I think you need to, if you're in a deeper, deeper league, you should probably be stashing them at this point. T. Higgins limited with an ankle injury, Mike.

Yeah, he, again, it's Wednesday. He was also banged up in the Bengals game the past week, kind of on off the field, had a moment where he was off and the trainers were looking at it. He did go back in. So for now, this is just something to monitor. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Fantasy forecast. All right, we are going to kick it off with the New York Giants at 3-1 taking on the Green Bay Packers at 3-1. I just said that sentence, and I don't know if I believe it. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Green Bay minus 8 at home, the over-under is just 40 points. That gives the Giants just 16 points on the road. Is this a very simple Saquan and no-one-else situation?

Yes, sir. I mean, this is about as easy as it gets. To speak one more second on the Cadarious Tony Wondale Robinson practices. I went back and looked last week because I couldn't remember if they were, you know, a lot of times you get these limited practices, but it's just people off to the side. Neither one. Neither one were limited last week. So getting a limited practice in is great news. These are guys that would be picking up off the waivers, not playing this week. But certainly if they are back to practice, this team desperately needs them. It does appear based on, you know, just practice and not signing a quarterback that Daniel Jones is going to be good to go as far as active. I don't know if he'll have the same mobility. You know, he had two rushing touchdowns last week. And I doubt that with his injury, that he'll be able to kind of turn on the wheels. Turn them on. Turn them on. Got it. Or even just turn them.

Yeah. They just, they don't need power. They're just wheels. What kind of powered wheels do you got? Power, power wheels. Gotcha. Right. That's a pretty strong rebuttal. This game's in London, by the way. I should have led with that. It's an early morning game. Set your alarms if you are worried about a player being active or your alarms. Or if you're not. Yeah. I mean, Sequin, uh, you, you, you want them in there. I don't think there's any report that he's going to miss. You better wake up and make sure one hour before a game. Somehow this is the 32nd London game in the first time ever with two winning records in London. What? Is that real? Yeah, we usually send them our best. I mean, like it's, well, we tried to send them a losing record and the Giants came out and went three and one. It's because it's, it's almost always been the Jaguars. And.

The Jaguars have been terrible for a long time. So on the giant side to speak to Saquan, right now his over under on Drafking Sportsbook is over 100 combined rushing and receiving yards. That's kind of the betting baseline. So, yeah, you love to see that and nobody else. The Packers defense 13th right now against the running back. Saquan just gets so much work and has looked great. So yeah, he's locked. Aaron Rogers on the other side will be. taking on the Giants, their defense has been solid so far through four weeks. It's what's been keeping them in these games that they end up winning at the end, ninth against quarterback, second against whiteouts. That makes it a pretty difficult situation. I mean, I think it's difficult in general to analyze the wide receiver room in Green Bay, just like it was before the year. Because, you know, both teams are on the road for this game. I realize that. But it hasn't been prolific for the Packers offense.

and you're in a situation where, you know, Romeo Dobbs, he's been good. The trust is probably building. Alan Lazard, eight targets last week. So you could just lock those two in if you want to. Yes. But I don't know where this is evolving to. And Aaron Rogers himself, like from a fantasy perspective, I haven't seen people starting him anywhere. And did you see these comments this morning? We're back to retiring. Yeah, I mean, he basically just said, you know. I didn't watch it. I just read the headline. It was a myriad of things that might make him not come back, but one of them was the development of the young wide receivers. It is like if they don't develop, apparently that's a condition in which he might, you know, walk off into the forest. I feel like that's good news for Romeo Dobbs in the sense that Aaron Rogers is saying, I need this guy to develop so that I can have a, you know, a future here.

Dobbs has been playing the number one role. He can't really go up any in snap and route participation. He has been on the field for all their passing downs. He has been leading in targets. And I think Dobbs is a strong play. I'm fine playing him. The Giants, they look like they have a good defense. A lot of that has been the schedule. A schedule adjusted defense right now. They are not a very great defense. So I think that the Packers can come in here, put on a show. I'm happy to play both running backs, Dobbs, and Aaron Rogers as, you know, it's a low-end option. I'm happy to play both Lazard and Dobbs. Lizard has, the snaps have gone up every week as he's been returning for that ankle injury. He scored in two of his three weeks. And then last week was over 100 yards. So I, like, we're.

Well, you're certainly hoping for one of them to become like a Devante Adams, a Jordy Nelson, just a true alpha number one. I think we're seeing that split into the two guys, which is still fantasy relevant. It's just, it's not top 10, but both of these guys, I think, are. like low level twos, high level wide receiver threes. Yeah, I would agree. I'm fine starting Lazard as well. And to speak to the schedule adjusted defensive ranks, because I'll be talking about that a little bit as we go through some of these matchups now that we've got a month of the season in. Basically, a lot of times, you know, you might look great against quarterbacks. The defense is not giving up a lot of points to quarterbacks, but it really makes a difference a month in.

Well, what quarterbacks have you played? You know, were you playing Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and shutting them down? Or, you know, were you playing a, you know, Cooper Rush? And he didn't put up a lot of points, but that he wasn't expected to. So the schedule adjusted defensive ranks basically take what the expectation of the players that that defense played against and then says, how did you do against what they should have done? Did you do better or worse? So like against quarterbacks right now. and running backs, the Giants project as the 22nd best against those two positions when you adjust for the schedule. Interesting. So is that you saying that the teams that they played beat their expectation against them? No. At those positions? I'm saying that the teams that they played haven't been very good. And so while they didn't give up a lot of points, they weren't expected to score a lot of points. The Giants have played Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield.

Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. Right, exactly. So it looks like, oh, they don't give up a lot of points to quarterbacks, but it's like, well, those quarterbacks don't score a lot of points. Of course they don't. But that doesn't mean that they're a bad defense because you don't know what they're going to do against the good quarterbacks yet. Absolutely. It doesn't guarantee it. And as the season goes along, especially once we get to like week eight, the schedule adjusted will be a really, really valuable metric. Do you play Aaron Rogers? I am okay with it. Jared Goff. on the road in New England with how well he's being. I play, oh gosh. I would definitely play Aaron Rogers. I play Rogers, yeah. He's not finished inside the top 12 in any week. He's only averaging 234 passing yards per game. Man, Jared Goff is, that's a really tough call. I'd play golf. I mean, that. Really? Yeah, because there's no explosiveness right now in this offense. Man, yeah, no, I agree with that. But if you, I get, Jared Goff had a monster week.

without his weapons last week. But the Seahawks are not the New England Patriots on the road in New England. It's three straight weeks that Aaron Rogers has scored 16 fantasy points. Sure. It's a very tough call. I have them basically just a couple spots between them. Rogers is throwing three picks so far. Doesn't he normally hit about seven on the season or less or something? Yeah. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon. Only one touchdown on the year for AJ Dylan right now. Are we concerned about the upside of Dylan based on what the first four games have revealed? He's averaging nearly 18 opportunities a game. So I'm not concerned that you haven't had the big explosive week. Week one was very good. But when it comes to a running back, you just, you want touches and you want some targets. So it's...

You just haven't hit a big time yet, but A.J. Dillon is still in play. Rogers hasn't thrown for more. Last year was four picks. On the season? On the season? Wow. The year before, five, the year before four, the year before two. He doesn't throw them. It's wild. It does. I mean, you've seen the difference with that Devante. Sure. Without question. But hopefully Dobbs Watson has only played like 25% of snaps. He's not startable. I don't even know if he's worth a hold. What would you tell somebody, is Christian Watson worthy of keeping on your bench? Because Watson is, yes, to me. What's the outcome there? Because Dobbs has obviously got him beat right now. I think the outcome is just simply the fact that he was injured. And so he's still working his way back from injury as far as getting, he's got to earn the snap counts and the target share. But when you've got the draft capital they put into him, the athletic profile that he has, I still feel like he's probably more valuable than.

holding a, you know, a Zay Jones that could, you know, if you need a start, obviously Zay Jones is going to be a better start than Christian Watson. But if these guys are just on your bench, you can find a Zay Jones off of waivers every week. Sure. I remember you guys talking a lot about rookies with Green Bay before the season. Yeah. And so I was trying to figure out if Christian Watson has a path to be in every week's start. The path is there. It's the probability is low. But the path remains. Yeah, I mean, I will say I would rather, if you're talking about the low-end rookie wide receivers who, you know, are very dropable, I would rather have Sky more than Christian Watson. Robert Tunyon, his touchdown guarantee is only available in the United States of America. Unfortunately, I can't guarantee you one, but I do think he's going to continue to be involved in this offense, especially in the Red So continental? No, I mean, if they played a game in Hawaii, I'd be willing to guarantee a touchdown. Okay. Awesome. I'd throw a luow.

For Tunian. Yeah. All right, quick break back with some more matchups. Detroit Lions, one in three, the aforementioned Jared Goff taking on the one in three New England Patriots. We expect to have Mack Jones back in this game? I mean, most players would not be back. Okay. All right. With the injury that he had, but yeah, I mean, he could be. Traff King, Swordswick line, New England minus three over-unders. 45 and a half. Okay. I mean, okay. This might not be the kind of the terror that the New England defense puts in you when you go on the road. I just don't know if that is there right now. 24th ranked against fantasy quarterbacks, points given up, 27th against tight end. So, you know, T.J. Hawkinson, I think you can stay in the, he earned himself like instant fire. You know how we say it's got to be three weeks in a row. I think if you approach 40 at tight end,

And I mean, not the age, like Antonio Gates, but the point total, like Hawkinson, I think that's instant fire. I think any time you put up three big weeks in one week, that counts as instant fire. You're going to need to take this up with the committee. NBA jam committee? Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I don't know if they still gather yearly as they used to. It would be like if you made a 10-pointer, you're automatically on fire. They just don't have 10-pointers in the game. Yeah. We're behind the back from half court, obviously the same as a 10 point. Exactly. All right. Jared Goff, he's the quarterback five. The recipe for success for this Detroit offense has been not having a defense. And he's capable of high volume, garbage time, all of these things that we saw last year, they've been on display even more this year. So, you know, in a game where you don't love going on the road to play New England, I still think Hawkinson, Jamal Williams. Yep.

maybe golf, depending on your situation at quarterback. Like, would you play golf on the road at New England or you play Russ tonight? I think I'd play Russ tonight. I would rather play. I'd rather play Russ. I'd rather play Russ. What about Derek Carr on the road against Kansas City? Derek Carr is who I would go with. Yeah, I would take, I would take Derek Carr. Jared Goff has been on fire. The nicest thing we've never said about Derek Carr. And I don't want to take anything. Send in the car. Send in the car. Send in the car. I don't want to take anything away from Goff because Goff was missing so many of his weapons and he was absolutely awesome. But it was, you know, at home, in a dome against the Seattle Seahawks terrible defense going on the road to New England who they don't have the scariest defense in the world. But in New England, they're going to be a lot for Goff to handle. So he to me is a quarterback two on the week.