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Main show · December 19, 2019

Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, Tannysee Titans!

RSSDec 19, 2019 · transcript indexed
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Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, Tannysee Titans!

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Inside the episode

166 passages
28:29 ↗

I just don't think he gets it done in New England. I think he's okay, but I still would rather not start him. There's 10, 12, 13 other guys. I would rather start because you have a higher upside. I'm starting a Fitzpatrick. I was just trying to temper your fine, what fine means because we have them ranked outside the top 20. That's not fine. Fine means to me that he's going to have in a six point scoring format, he's going to have.

28:56 ↗

17 points. So he's not going to crush you. He's not going to go out there and dud with five. I don't believe. Now, he, this is, the Patriots have done that to plenty of other quarterbacks. 17 would be double what he got against him last time. Yeah. And that's, that's what I truly think will happen. I am staying away from both quarterbacks. I am staying away from like James White is, I think, fine. I think it's a, that's a good flexi play. But I don't really want to mess with Sonny Michelle.

29:25 ↗

I mean, last week was 19 for 89. Congratulations, Sony. And you can beat Buffalo. You're a real boy. On the ground. They've gotten much better as the years gone along, but they are weaker on the ground than they are with their excellent passing coverage. So Sony is, he's somewhat in play as, you know, if you're at a standard league, Sony's much more exciting because you're not getting points for receptions and good news he doesn't get them.

29:51 ↗

Yeah, and the bills, the rushing defense has really improved over the last handful of weeks. They're now in the top half in that place. And these are two of the best defenses in the league. Singletary or Sonny Michelle, who would you rather play? Singletary. Singletary is the better player. I agree. He's just been outstanding week in and week out. Not necessarily for fantasy. You might be looking at just the fantasy points scored and say, oh, he had a somewhat down week last week.

30:15 ↗

But he was still outstanding in real life. And I'm going to bet on those players when you're talking at this level of, you know. I'm still trying. I still wish, like I'd play Mike Boone over Devon Singleton. Me too. Yeah. So people need that question answered. Both of these players are going to be, I think, in the category of volume gets you enough to make you not cry, but you're not smiling.

30:41 ↗

Yeah, the biggest question in this game to me, and it's a massive one, it's a scary one because this is a player who's gotten you here. Let me read you some snap counts. 97%, 92%, 98%. You see how the snap counts were? Yeah, they're very high. He's in every play. And then 62%. That's Julian Edelman last week.

31:03 ↗

dealing with an injury in his knee that, oh, no, he's fine, but not really. I think he's really dealing with a significant injury. He's tough. He's playing through it. But it wasn't good last week. And now this is championship week. I don't know. You bring it up in the right context. He's a player that's gotten you here. I don't really know if I can bench him if he's active. They've got nothing.

31:28 ↗

They've got nothing out of their other wide receiving options. The trade for Muhammad Sunu has been a flop of flops. Brady has not been able to find a connection consistently with the other wide receivers. And if they're going to hold on to this division, it's going to be in Edelman's hands. Now, it's a terrible matchup. I just don't know if I can bench him is my point. I think he's a wide receiver two to wide receiver three option this week against the terrible matchup. Yeah, I think I can bench him.

31:54 ↗

Really? You're making a note over there that is probably put Edelman down. Yes, I am. The reality is, I mean, what did he have? Two receptions for nine yards last week. And if he's dealing with this injury combined with a great defense across the field, you know, can he be fine, especially in full PPR leagues? Sure.

32:18 ↗

But I'm not going to bet that this is a game he gets in the end zone. I'm not going to bet this is the game where he ends up over 100 yards. No, you're right. You know, so now what is the injury risk? I mean, he has a tendon in his left knee that's damaged, more severe than people originally thought. So you have added risk of leaving early. Yes. But, you know, it's just tough to do. It is tough to do. And it's a matter of your other options because, you know, it's, I'm not going to start Will Fuller over Julian. You're not. Unless, unless if I'm playing a real.

32:47 ↗

superstar you know i i came in not the favorite seven wins and i got to the championship and i'm going up against the juggernaut team who's been outstanding that that's a game i would play will fuller over julian edelman because i don't think julian edelman's ceiling is here this week this is why i want to add some like we have our start sit tool but that's so binary right and it's right and we don't that we don't give binary responses on the show there's context to every decision yeah and so i want i know

33:13 ↗

We've talked about this and putting it out there is dangerous. But I know we want to add some like, you know, some variable setting options in the start sit tool where, look, if you're a team going in and you want an upside, your answer might be a little bit different. That's the truth. Yeah, 100%. I mean, a Bashad Perryman or a Will Fuller just playing has way more upside than a Julian Edelman who's been a super consistent player but on a PPR basis and now plays a terribly difficult matchup. Yeah.

33:42 ↗

So John Brown on the other side. I really don't. I'm not going to try to play him. I would play Edelman over Brown. Yeah. And then very unkindly, editor-in-chief Kyle made a little note in our doc for Ben Watson. Now, there's no note for Dawson Knox. No, Dawson Knox is a rookie. You don't know a lot about him. He's been okay. You might have a bright future. Might not. No, his note actually says note. Right. So there's nothing. Nothing. But then on Ben Watson's side,

34:12 ↗

In all capitals, it says old as dirt. Yeah, that's mean. That's not very nice. That's not nice. And I think dirt is older than him, but. Yeah. There aren't many tight ends that are. And Papa Josh. But otherwise. Right. Papa Josh, dirt. Dirt. Both older than Ben Watson. Nothing else. That's it. That's end of list. Terrible. All right. The last Saturday game. Rams, 49ers. This game's in San Francisco. Rams are 8 and 6, 49ers, 11, and 3.

34:42 ↗

San Francisco beat the Rams in week 6, 20 to 7, in a game where the Rams offense managed to procure a mere 157 total yards. And that's such malarkey. Such malarkey. You're saying that's the high end? They procured 30 yards of offense when that game mattered. I'm...

35:06 ↗

Correct. I mean, at the end of that game, we're playing against Cooper Cup, so we've got all eyes on Cooper Cup at this game, just context for when we're watching. Here's what happened. The defense is 40 yards away. Cooper Cup rolls out about 8, 9 yards, is wide open in the middle of the field. Jared Goff just goes, okay, I'll give it to him. He's wide open. This is what the defense wants him to do. They tackle him about there, about the 10, 11 yard line over and over and over. In the actual game part, nothing was done.

35:35 ↗

The Rams looked completely overmatched by a team that has recently been looking a little overmatched. So who are the real Rams? And now they play the 49ers? Who's not looking overmatched? The real Rams are pretty close to their record. They're about that reliable. Eight and six, so a little better than... A little bit better than 500 on reliability, but not much. And...

36:05 ↗

Difficult to trust on the road against the 49ers here. You know, the 49ers have an opportunity battling with Seattle to still get the, you know, when they lose the division, they go from the one seed to the five seat. That's not a great situation. So I like San Francisco. They're six and a half point favorites. It's a 45 point over under. And so that's kind of the context for the matchup. Now, Rahim Moster, you're starting him, right? Todd Gurley, you're starting him.

36:34 ↗

the running backs, the starters. You can trust Mostert as an RB2? I think you can trust Mostert. I am a little, you know, this, you saw Mostert last week take over the dominant role. Now, as a team, they didn't put up that much.

36:53 ↗

You weren't thrilled, but Moster did get a touchdown and was okay. But when it comes to snap percentages, carries compared to Coleman, compared to Breda, he was the lead dog, and I expect him to keep that. And now you're going to a team that was just torched on the ground, two different 100-yard rushers in Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. I think Moster is a must-play. While Gurley has been so consistent, he has just been, you know, week in and week out.

37:22 ↗

You look at our consistency chart. I was talking to the producer Borland the other day about him versus someone else. And, you know, I pivoted. I said, I'm a little worried about Gurley this week, and he sends me the consistency chart. He's like, there's a lot of green. There's a lot of green in Gurley's consistency chart. But I am very worried about this matchup this week because Gurley gets right now 90% of whatever the Rams running game gets. Like, that's all him.

37:50 ↗

But it's been since week 10, and that's a long time ago. That's seven games ago, or, no, I'm sorry, from week seven a long time ago that they haven't given up a top half performance to running backs. The Niners haven't. So is Todd Gurley a running back one this week? I don't think so. No, he's more of a, you're still going to play Todd Gurley over an Adrian Peterson level option, are you not?

38:19 ↗

Yeah. I mean, the passing game involvement for Gurley, if he's on the field like he was last week, 96% of the time, he's going to get some work out of the backfield, especially with that pass rush. It's just not exciting. And that's just the way the match up, like you'd, would you play Mostard or Gurley? Yeah, I would play Mostard. Would you not? I think I would, based on, you know, Moster scored in four straight, home game, big favorite, running well. I think it's probably the right call. Still involved in the passing game.

38:49 ↗

Yeah, and last week you had a garbage time touchdown for Gurley and then he got the two-point conversion. So his numbers look pretty good. But, you know, again, he wasn't good last week. All right. Cooper Cup, Robert Woods, Brandon Cooks on the Rams side. And then Emmanuel Sanders and Debo Samuel. Not a good week from San Francisco wide receivers last week. Not a good week from Rams wide receivers last week. Yes, Cooper Cup.

39:20 ↗

Garbage timed himself into 41 and a touchdown or whatever it was. But where are you with this matcha? Is it a bounce back opportunity for Sanders and Samuel? Yeah, I think both of these games are bounce back opportunities. We expect Richard Sherman to be back for the 49ers, but they're still dealing with a couple of problems in their secondary. I'm fine with Woods again.

39:48 ↗

Every wide receiver out there has some bad games, and the Rams got shellacked, and Woods didn't do much. But, you know, the four previous games, he was a top 20 wide receiver. So I'm sticking with Woods, then Cup. Would you play Woods over Emmanuel Sanders in the same game? Sanders, according to Pro Football Focus, has Ramsey as the matchup. It will depend where I think, you know.

40:12 ↗

Whether they have him on him all game or these guys are moving around, Samuel kind of gets, Debo Samuel, that is, gets involved in the screen game, gets involved in the end-round game. Yeah, I would rather start Robert Woods in this matchup. I don't expect Ramsey to shadow either of those guys. I think Ramsey's going to stay to his spot and then Shanahan will move around his weapons to get them all.

40:39 ↗

somewhat involved in plus matchups. Again, I think it's a bounceback week for both wide receiving groups, but I don't think this is a smash play. I don't think either one is like a home run. I'm super excited to play Robert Woods. This is just a game where I think you're going to be okay playing Robert Woods. Yeah, yeah. I'm with you Woods over Sanders. I do worry that, you know, if I'm the Rams, my strategy is make somebody other than Emmanuel Sanders beat me, which would mean probably sending.

41:08 ↗

Jalen Ramsey on a little traveling party, but we'll see. Brandon Cooks don't even touch him. Don't even glance his direction. He's not getting separation. I was watching snaps from last week. He's never open. It's not targets. It's not like an unwillingness. I mean, he had eight targets last week. He gets no separation right now. None. So concerning for a long-term view of Brandon Cooks. I don't know what's going on. I don't know if he's out of shape because of the concussions and missing time, but it wasn't good.

41:37 ↗

Tyler Higby, Gerald Everett, talked about it at the top of the show. Higby's a smash play based on recency of what the 49ers have given up if he's alone. And then Kettle, you just play Kettle. Yeah, you're going to play them. Nice. Thank you. Yeah. Gris, yeah, Gris. Giants, 49ers, both 3 and 11. 41 point over under. Redskins are two and a half point favorites. The Giants beat the Redskins 24 to 3 in week four.

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