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Main show · August 15, 2019

10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy Football League

RSSAug 15, 2019 · transcript indexed
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10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy Football League

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Inside the episode

144 passages
27:28 ↗

Okay, in the last seven years, here's the list of rookie tight-ins who finished first. Dwayne Allen, he was the best rookie that year. Of the rookie class. Dwayne Allen, tight-in 24. Jordan Reed? Yeah, there's a name we know, but he was the 21st tight end. That's not good. Jace Amaro. Oh, I remember when that. Yes. How about Will Ty? He was great.

27:55 ↗

The only one that has... The blast from the past, I'm enjoying myself. The only rookie tight-in who has actually mattered...

28:01 ↗

in the last seven years and well further back than that is Evan Ingram. We brought him up and he had a lot of things that happened, including O'Dell Beckham going down, that allowed him to succeed there. So all the hype, I mean, you look at ADP lists and T.J. Hawkinson is being drafted and he's being hyped up. He's going to be on the field. I'm not buying in because of what Batilda says about the history of tight ends. Let's look at wide receivers.

28:26 ↗

another group that I am not really buying into because of history. Now, I looked at how many, what I wanted to find out, really, when I looked into the data and I was prepping for this show, I wanted to see how often rookies actually break out, because that's really what you're going for. You're going for that rookie, that Odell Beckham, right, breaks out and as a wide receiver one. How many wide receiver ones? How many tight-in ones? How many running back ones? In the last seven years, there have been three wide receivers.

28:54 ↗

that have broken out and become a wide receiver one. You had Odell Beckham and Mike Evans in 2014 and Michael Thomas in 2016. Outside of that, even great names like last year, Calvin Ridley, had 10 touchdowns. He was the wide receiver 20. He was the best wide receiver last year. He didn't actually help people in fantasy because you didn't play him that week. He got three touchdowns. You know, it just, that's...

29:19 ↗

how rookies happen, or DJ Moore, who had a good stretch, and Dante Pettis, who had a good stretch, they were later in the season. So really, you're talking about over the last seven years, zero point four rookies have been able to end as a wide receiver one. But look at running backs. I had someone right in recently saying that they don't like to draft rookie running backs, and I think that that's bad strategy.

29:45 ↗

Literally, you know, I talked about Michael Thomas, Odell Beck and Mike Evans. That's the end of the list for wide receivers. Here's the list in the last seven years of running backs who have finished their rookie season as an RB1. Philip Lindsay, Saquan Barkley, Karim Hunt, Alvin Camara, Leonard Fournette, Zekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Jeremy Hill, Eddie Lacey, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson. They average almost two and a quarter rookie running backs every year on average.

30:15 ↗

are in the top 12. So when you take your shot at David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders, they crush where their ADP was when you get that shot. So if you combine these first two tips, which is loading up on running backs and taking rookies, take that shotgun approach, I think you're going to be good. And when it comes to quarterbacks, there's not been that many.

30:39 ↗

who have finished as a wider shooter one in the last seven years, which was the dad I was going through. But they usually run. Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, they run the ball. So, and like Josh Allen Lamar Jackson, they didn't finish as a one, but that's because they didn't play half the year. Right. They dominated when they did play, and they would have finished number one. That's why Kyler Murray's getting all the love. So when it comes to rookies, the history of rookies says draft rookie running backs, draft rushing quarterback rookies.

31:08 ↗

avoid the other rookies. Thank you, Professor. You're welcome. Number eight. Sorry. I was going to say my tip here is now will seem not as strong because my monologue won't go on for 20 minutes. Oh, well. Well done, Jason. Sorry. My apologies. No, no. For nothing. I'm saying it was great. Oh, all right. Good. But mine does kind of combo in with the other two tips we have gotten. As the great philosopher.

31:36 ↗

J.G. Wentworth says, oh gosh. It's my money and I've wanted now. You're off to a good start, Mike. I'll be honest. We've got Bethelda Bagshot and J.G. Wentworth bringing you the fantasy knowledge you need. We bring the deep cuts to win on the fantasy footballers. And what I mean by that, I'm feeling so. Are you diving deep now to find a good one? I'm great now.

32:03 ↗

is the guys I'm taking late in the draft, I want to know immediately does it look like they have a path to value? And it's especially strong for running backs because guys like Peyton Barber going extremely late in drafts, you're going to know, at least for a chunk of the season. You're going to know, week one, is Peyton Barber the guy or are they going to try and force it to be Ronald Jones? If it's Peyton Barber, you're going to have a nice value.

32:33 ↗

The offense should improve. Bruce Ariens has done magical things with his running backs. And now you have a nice value with Peyton Barber. Same with Matt Berita. What's that splink going to look like between Kevin Coleman and Berita? Is it close to Berita's getting 40%? But he's hugely involved in the passing game. Devin Singletary, what happens to LaShawn McCoy and Frank Gore in front of him? Justin Jackson. If Melvin Gordon is holding out, Justin Jackson should provide

33:04 ↗

value early and on top of that I'm not looking that it'll be great if these guys turn into season long values but I'm trying to get my team off to a hot start and I want to know who can help my team right now and that you know what they also help they help if they do nothing because now I know I got the easy cut it's it's not a problem I don't see a path early on in the season that these people are going to provide value unlike like John Brown

33:32 ↗

If John Brown comes out and has a bad week one, it could just be the factors of the game. I still got to hold on to John Brown and find out. Do you feel like Devon Singletary fits that category of guys you'll know in week one? Because I would imagine this season starts with Frank Gore getting all the veteran love, the pat on the booty. I'm drafting Devon Singletary because perhaps Lashon McCoy gets, there's still the rumors that Shady McCoy is going to be traded before the season starts. And then...

33:59 ↗

watching week one. It's not necessarily that Singletary puts up a huge fantasy performance, but I look at the snap counts. I look at the usage. Does it look like Devon Singletary is going to rise to the top of that depth chart quickly? That's what I'm talking about. And I mean, like Golden Tate, you can draft him late, but now, okay, now I'm sitting on this player. Like golden weight. Oh, oh, oh, so good. Kobe.

34:26 ↗

Oh, that was nice. These wide receivers where you take them late, they have a bad week one, you don't know for sure that they aren't going to be involved in next week's game. All you know is that some unknown wide receiver will score three touchdowns in week one, be sitting on the waiver wire, and you'll be like, oh man, do I drop John Brown to go grab Kirby Mershowich?

34:48 ↗

I thought you were going to go with Kirby Puckett. Darnely Anderson. So I want to know right now, are you going to help my team for the first 25% of the season? And that's what I want with my late shots. I don't want someone to sit on my bench for six weeks to figure it out. No, that's a super important tip. I fully and wholeheartedly support J.G. Wentworth on that one. Number seven. All right. Number seven, your team is not good as you think it is. As good? Not as. Wait.

35:18 ↗

Let me start over. Wait, your team isn't as good as you think it is also known as. Our grammar, not good as we try. My grammar, aunt good, not well. Here's another way to say it, Mike. Don't smell your own farts. Oh, I know. Jason, I know you need that. You need that warning more than most. I need that advice. I need that advice in my life. Fantasy owners each and every year we fall in love, especially with the roster you draft. You spend month after month after month preparing to draft that roster. And guess what?

35:44 ↗

A lot of the times you think you drafted the best roster. We're all guilty of it after draft night. Oh, you just, you turn down the lights, pull up the left time. He's just like, oh, yeah. Yeah, look what I did. And you fall in love. You also might fall in love with players that they did nice things for you last year. They put up huge points. We have our my guys, our projected my guys. You've got your my guys.

36:10 ↗

Sometimes they're guys that delivered for you last year, but they can cause us to have a biased view of your own team. And here's what I mean. We've been in so many leagues where owners think that all of their players are the best players, and they have a rose-colored view of their roster. No one else's is as good. You turn down trade offers that make perfect sense for your team because you are only looking at your roster through the lens of,

36:41 ↗

Every player's ceiling. You're not looking at reality. Here's the thing. You don't get a count last year's points towards this season. If you own Philip Lindsay, you don't get to look back to last year and say, guess what? I get those points this year. You don't get bonus points if you own the player's jersey, surprisingly. So if they're your favorite player, your hometown team, I'm wearing a Kyler jersey right now. I don't get points for being a fan.

37:07 ↗

You don't get a head start in 2019 by holding on to last year. That's the point I'm saying. So you need to try your best to be objective as a fantasy owner. View each season through a fresh lens. Start fresh. If something starts to go sideways from how you viewed a player, all off season, oh, I know this player is going to do X. You can be tempted to hang on to that for no reason. There may be no real reason to believe.

37:35 ↗

that that breakout pick you had or that late round flyer you took will ever break out three or four weeks into the season. Mike, you talked last tip about learning early in the season. The dumbest thing you can do is learn and then do nothing about it. Or basically put your head in the sand and say, next week, next week, next week. Some of the best trades you can make are cashing in on that type of bias that another owner has about your players. You can sell that.

38:04 ↗

If you know in two or three weeks that Peyton Barber, oh, he's not going to be the guy. He's not going to get the work. He's not going to get the passing work. You might be able to sell another owner on your league on what he did last year. You may be able to turn this tip in your favor. So if he's not panning out early, don't project something onto them that isn't going to happen in the next few weeks. Stay water. Your team might not be as good as you think. Super team. Oh.

38:29 ↗

I feel like that was a dig at me. It was a body blow right at the very end. It wasn't really a dig. It was more of a reminder. More of a kick in the crotch. Look, your team last year was a super team. Shout out to the listener who tried to get in a listener league by taking a nut kick. Good job. Oh, yeah. We didn't say that, huh? No. But we saw it. We saw it. We saw it. I've been waiting for someone to bring up the team. Did he get into the listener league? No, no. He was not chosen. So if you didn't get chosen, know that.

38:59 ↗

Yeah. So we do review everyone and thank you so much for those listener league submissions. And then we've got our finalists and then we ranked them internally and then we let the ranks fall where they fall. I ranked nut kick guy very high because he took the reason being, now Jason, stay with me. It's because he took a huge punt, like a kick to the nuts. Right. That was the real. That's why I wanted to put them in. My only problem is twofold. The, the, yeah.

39:27 ↗

Hold on. Your only problem is two problems? Two things. Okay. I realize there was two because it's either, it's either number one. This, this fan, this man should, it's just a video. We're not there. He should have been wearing protection. For sure. And I would have been. Exactly. And he could have been. And he could have been. That's why there's two problems. He could have been and we've been deceived.

39:53 ↗

Or he didn't, and he should have. And he's a psycho. Either way you lose, but it made us laugh. Yes, it did, and it almost got you in the league. All right. Next tip. Number six. No risket, no biscuit, and biscuits can lead to diabetes. That's my title for tip six. What is happening on today's show? Can I, before you get into what, unravel that ridiculous title, every year on this show.

40:23 ↗

Normally, we each put in our tips, and then we go through as a team and we name these things. This year that didn't happen, like we name them ourselves, and you're getting the results. You're welcome. So hold on. No biscuit, no biscuit. Biscuits lead to diabetes. What on earth do you mean? I'm saying, look, I don't want diabetes in my first round. Maybe you do. But in my first round, I want to avoid risk. I've said this for years. This is a tip I always bring up.

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