Week 17 Matchups + Wheel of Shame, A Beautiful Trap - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/29

So Thielen is a start-s-it question for people in PPR, half-P-P-R leagues, because last week there was a bit of a resurgence in terms of utilization. Bryce Young actually had a good game. Six for 94 last week for Thielen. He hasn't scored since before the buy, but, you know, he could. That's what they say about him. And the matchup is there. So if you have, if you're in the situation where. Hopkins or Thielen? Hopkins. Yeah, I'd go Hopkins. Dorch or Thielen? Oh, Thielen. I'm saying if you're in that camp where you've kind of been switching out of Thielen in, always the quarterback. That Thielen is, he's an okay flex. All right, quick break back with another matchup. I was just realizing this show might go so long with all the big matchups this week. We might not have time for the wheel of shame or anything. Did you guys realize that? I mean, I got nothing but time. Jay, you good? I don't want to go anywhere until we get the shame done. Any updates on Lattimore for us?

It appears he is not, not not going to play. Not, not, okay. I got you. Miami's 11 and 4. Baltimore's 12 and 3. We're excited for this one. There we go. Drafking Sportsbook Line, Baltimore, minus 3 and a half. The overrunners 47. The winner will be in the driver's seat for the number one seed, the buy in the AFC. This game, I'm going to be honest with you. I'm a little worried about it. from a fantasy side of things. I would take the under on the 47. I'm going to put that way. The pass rush for both teams, ferocious. The quarterbacks, they've been up and down this year. You take weapons away from Tua. We've seen struggles at times. And you didn't take the big one away. Tyreek Hill will be there. But you did take Jalen Waddle out of this equation. And I have spent most of this week trying to determine the beneficiary in that offense.

You know, I think some people would want to run to Cedric Wilson and DFS. For me, I actually think that the sneakiest start of the week, it's not Cedric Wilson, it's not Chase Claypool or Braxton Barrios or River Craycraft because some ensemble will fill in the gap at wide receiver beyond Tyreek Hill. Is Durham Smyth? Oh, no. I think Durham Smyth. Oh, no. Who we, and I'll tell you right now. That's a draft Kings line. That's in my draft king's line. because Durham Smythe has been involved when these injuries have transpired in the most recent weeks. The pass rush will necessitate some shorter to the line of scrimmage. Last week, 5 for 56 for Durham Smyth on 85% of snap. So I'm just, I'm going to throw it out there. I'm going to throw it out there to the world. I think it's something that if you want, what is he in draft Kings? He's got to be so cheap. 2,900, I think. So, okay, if you want to do that, that's fine, but this is not a play for your championship lineups. Well, I mean, look, I'd play him over Dalton Kincaid.

So spicy. I'm just, look, implied point total of 21. They're going to try to run the football, obviously. Tough to do against the Ravens, number one on the year. Season schedule adjusted against running backs. So most are you're obviously playing them, A-chan, you're probably playing them. But it doesn't mean they're going to have success on the road against Baltimore's defense. And if you get down to Baltimore, who is favored, you're going to have to. Throw the football. So look, I don't want to make this about Durham Smyth. Let's make this about Tyree Kill still being a start. But I'm concerned about Tua. I'm concerned about Lamar. I don't know if this game's going to be as high-scoring as people would hope. Yeah, I would concur that these are two great defenses and two great offices. These are two of the best teams in the league. Flowers is the guy that you want to play. But if for some reason he is inactive,

I don't think you could trust Bateman. He's, he has fallen from. Yeah. From just being good to an irrelevant NFL player faster and more surprisingly. Never good. Yeah, maybe never good. Maybe never good. But supposed to be good. Yeah, supposed to be good. But also did have flashes. Like he was injured a lot. He caught some bombs. Early in his career, he caught these bombs and looked like he showed the flashes you want to see. He just wasn't on the field. Then he gets on the field and it's like, would you say he was drafted to be great? Yeah, for sure he's drafted to be great. All first rounders are drafted to be great. Would you also, I mean, I'm looking, he is not finished in top 36, even one time this year. No, he's, he's not good. So I won't trust him no matter what, but does that mean if Flowers is gone and Bateman sucks that you could trust O'Dell Beckham? You can't trust him. Yeah. And Isaiah likely is very solid. Isaiah likely, I think is a great play. I mean, everything you're saying about Smyth is true of likely. Oh, yeah, likely.

Except likely is actually way better. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Smythe is the, I got no one left to throw two. Tightened option. That's all I'm saying. Zay Flowers will monitor that situation. The running backs. Justice Hill, he'll get the most snaps. Gus Edwards will probably get the most valuable snaps. If you had to choose between those two to play, would you go Gus bus touchdown? Yeah. Yeah, I lean that way. One more week, Gus. Get in the end zone. Lamar Jackson, if he's your quarterback that got you here, you're obviously playing him. Tua, are you actively trying to bench him for some of those streaming options like Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Gino Smith. I would be willing to do that, yeah. Jared Gough or Tua. Oh. Pretend that we just added golf to your roster, Mike. Gough or Tua, I would.

I think I'd go golf. I would as well. I've got golf, car, Baker, and Gino all right literally the spots ahead of Tua. I don't think Tua is an absolute flat out must bench, but I believe there are better options. It's a very difficult matchup without Waddle. You're going to have to have some things go right. And it's easy. I mean, a screen passed to Devon A. Chan that goes to 70 yards. You're going to be happy. So that's why he's not a must bench. But I think the expectation, we've seen too many games from Tua this year that are very, very low fantasy scoring games because it's just how it can happen with this offense. So I would rather take the streaming options that look like they have better matchups this week. Kyle would like to let you know that, you know, remind you that Tua went 469 and 6 against Baltimore last year. I believe that was week one or two of the season. Did he really? Yeah.

That's a little... Different Baltimore defense. Ways ago. That stat only hurts, Kyle. It hurts people. Well, I don't know. I believe yesterday he was the one talking about Amari Cooper's big game against the Jets. He's kind of propping up flaco. Yeah, yeah. Except I asked him later, I go, you'd bench Cooper. I'm going to bench him. That's the right call, right? And he's like, yeah, absolutely. I know he was a genius. Well, it was a genius. He's got zero points. You always sit the inactive players. That's part of our shows kind of... Yeah, we say this. Take them out of your flex. Yeah. Always. You know? Take your inactive players out of the flex. That's right. And out of your other spots. Other spots, yep. Buy week players as well. I guess that's inactive. Yeah. Tennessee, 5 and 10, Houston, 8 and 7. Divisional matchup. Draft King Sportsbook line. Houston at home minus 4. Overrunners 44 points. Texans still in the playoff picture. Are they 8 and 7 right now? They're 8 and 7. What a year.

Yeah. Bravo. It's been impressive work. C.J. Stroud back at practice, back in lineups? Yeah, I think so. C.J. Stroud is among those, like I would play C.J. Stroud over Tua. C.J. Stroud is, it's an okay matchup. It's really a great matchup for wide receivers, and it's an okay matchup for quarterbacks against the Tennessee Titans. But there's a very important game for them. They are at home. There is usually for most positions coming off of a concussion is you're right back to pre-concussion performance. I know that that's true for wide receivers and running backs. I do have like a little like hesitation. We've seen a couple bad performance, you know, Tua last year was obvious. But I think you're fine to play Stroud and he's got Nico back.

The big one is Fields in Stroud because they're ranked closely for us on the website. And you're a Fields versus Atlanta? I'm Fields ahead of Stroud by one spot in my rankings. Right, exactly. It's close. It's very close. Atlanta's not a great, they are a pretty solid defense as far as restricting the other offenses. Partially that's because of Atlanta's offense. But I just want the legs of Fields. I want them. You would like to replace your legs with another man's legs. Oh, do that in a heartbeat. Give me Justin Fields legs. You would look different. Yeah, but I'd be watch me run. I wouldn't even, when I come from my desk into the studio, I would be running every time because I'd be like, check out what I can do. Would you wear pants? No, I'd be in a speedo. Devin Singletary had 31 opportunities against Tennessee a couple of weeks ago.

Last week got game scripted out. They got blown out of the building. Houston had, did not have C.J. Stroud and they were down to the Browns like 34 to 7 or something. So he only got 44% of snaps last week. Was great on them. Is Devin Singletary someone you're endorsing this week with CJ Stroud? Yep. I'm playing him as an RB2. Yeah, I would take him over to those other running backs we talked about earlier, the Gibson tier guys. And. Nico Collins, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz. How do you look at the past catchers? The wide receiver room, the Titans are weak against wide outs, Stroud's back, Collins and Brown at the top of your list, or is it just Collins? No, I like Collins. I like Noah Brown. Dalton Schultz gets the targets. It's not a great matchup for tight ends, but he's had enough targets, especially from CJ Stroud, where you go, okay, he's a fine enough play.

I'm not going to play Smyth over him. I went a little too hard on the Durham Smyth, didn't I? I think so. You're not going to play him in a championship game. No, no, you're not. I mean, generally bringing up the name Durham Smyth is going too hard. Well, we do have a little bit of an inside joke here at the studio. Yeah. When a white tight end catches a pass and we don't know who it is, we do, for any team. We're like, who caught that? And then you're like Smyth. Yeah. Because he's there. And he's a tight end. Because he was like stealing all Gassicki's targets. If we don't know the tight end's name, he's just smite. He's just smites. On the other side, Derek Henry, Taj Spears, DeAndre Hopkins. Those are your conversation pieces. And, you know, you're playing Derek Henry. You're really hoping it goes better than.

The last time these teams met. You've got a greater than 50% chance that it goes very well. Right now, Burlington, Vermont has a 51% chance of snow. But that's Saturday. This game is Sunday. Snow on the ground. That's all you need? It just needs to be on the ground. Okay. That is. So the Vermont, we need Vermont to stay cold. Is there a depth? But that means you'll know, right? If this is Saturday, we'll know come Sunday if there's snow on the ground. All right. And if you're unfamiliar, when it snows in Vermont, it's 100% correlative hit rate with Derek Henry having a monster. So outside of snow-related analysis, Derek Henry had one of the worst games of his career against Houston. He scored three fantasy points on 20 opportunities two weeks ago. It's not just his career. It's one of the worst games historically ever seen, ever imagined. He had 16 carries and four receptions.

And he didn't get to 15 yards. So if that's what happened, and Texans, they're the number one defense against the run over the last six weeks. Number one, they're at home. The game script is not favoring Derek Henry. So let's be real for a second. Let me, if you have Devin Singletary and Derek Henry, and you're going into this lineup. You're going into this match. Who are you playing? I'm playing Derek Henry. I would play Derek. Singletary has been a better running back. No. Over the, since week 10? I mean, since he took over the starting job? Let's see here. Let's find out if I'm lying, because I might be. I was just out of my butt. Week 10 and 11 were down weeks for Derek Henry. So depending on where you slice it off. I'm just slicing it where single tree took over. Week 12, week 13, week 13, week 14, week 14, all three, Derek Henry was a top 10 running back. Last week he was a top five running back. They're the same. 13.4, 13.6. Yeah. So.

Yeah, look, Mike, are you in that boat too? Yeah, I would go Derek Henry. Really? Because it's, I mean, it could also be your matchup, but Derek Henry, between the two of them is more likely to have the spike week. Yeah, he has seven touchdowns in the last five weeks. I get it. And it's not a, it's not a slight against Devon Singletary. It's in my championship matchup. I want. the running back who is more likely to get two touchdowns. I just wanted to press you. I wanted to press you. It's worth the conversation because that game was such a tragedy. Will Levis full practice? I'm just seeing. Oh, really? Yeah. I think that's very good news for DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is such a difficult player to trust. I mean, you literally have in the last seven weeks, you have four times.

Not when he was kind of okay, but four times when he was outside the top 50. Okay? So those were full on, you hurt your team by playing him. And then there were three games in the top 15 in that span, including the big game with Levis against Miami. So I believe the way that I'm- It's a little nerve-wracking. I totally get it. The way that I am viewing the outcome of this game is that C.J. Stroud is going to ball out. I think Nico Collins and Noah Brown have really, really good games. If that happens, that means that the Titans are going to have to throw. You can throw pretty easily on the Texans as well. So Hopkins, if he has banana ramma at quarterback, I think he's a good play this week. All right. Pittsburgh, 8 and 7, Seattle 8 and 7, the Drag King Sportsbook line, Seattle minus 3.5 at home. Overender's 41. Both teams fighting for wild card spots.

Steelers heard us talking about them, not being above 500 on the year. Came out and dominated with Mason Rudolph because Mike Tomlin. So. And Cincinnati. We have some. Don't discredit what Cincinnati did in that performance. I blinked. I blinked in that game. Like I hadn't seen much going on there. And I was like, whoa. What happened? How are the Steelers at 21 points? So how are you breaking down this matchup? Because the overrun is low. It's 41. We have some injury news. Like D.K. McCaff, he didn't practice Thursday. I don't know how concerned we are because he's had limited practices with the back throughout the year. Kenneth Walker didn't practice. He dealing with the shoulder and the illness. He seems to be doing that lately. He didn't practice all last week and then he played, right? He did, but he played not very effectively. Well, the matchup on paper against the Steelers over the course of the year has been good for running backs. The Steelers are weird because sometimes they just show up.

Yeah, they are a very strange defense. You've seen them shut people down, and this is part of why they have eight wins on the season. And every now and then they just don't seem that great and very, very beatable. For this matchup, I really, really like Jackson Smith and Jigba. I think that, you know, the Steelers have been killed by the slot wide receiver pretty much all season. You've got a bang. Also for just. Forever. Yeah, forever. But you've got a banged up Metcalf. And I think JSN is a pretty solid play. Obviously, if Metcalf is out, I think Lockett, you could play. Walker is going to be in your line. Locket or what? Locket. That question is. I would stick with personally how I had it last week, which is Metcalf first, JSN, second, locket third. I'm on the locket above JSN. Yeah, I'll still go there too. He's got 20 targets in two weeks, but.

both in play. So are all three basically startable? Yes. I don't know if I look at JSN that way. Really? No. No, I mean. I look at Jason as a lower tier starter. Jason is just not a yardage guy. So it's hard because he just doesn't, if he doesn't score, I don't think you're happy with JSN. And he hasn't scored much. That's fair. From the slot, you're not going to have as many opportunities to score. He was six for 61 last week. So it speaks to kind of the lower efficiency per reception. But he has. looked the part. I think I'm betting on his talent. I play Curtis. I play Curtis Samuel with Jacoby Brissette over I would Jackson Smith and Jigba. Okay. But that's the tier to me. Deonté Johnson didn't do much with Mason Rudolph last week, but had scored in three straight weeks. And also Mason missed him.

Like there was a play. Oh, that's not surprising. Well, he didn't miss George Pickens. But I'd say there was a, there was a play where Deontay was running free and Mason missed him. It would have been a sizable touchdown. George Pickens last week, four for one, 20, or 195 and two. What do you do with Pickens? I think most people, because I think they'll play him. But it's high risk, high reward. I don't think you look at, I think he's, he is Gabe Davis. He's not. Just because he had a big game. Like every time Gabe Davis has a big game, we don't go, well, he's locked and loaded for the rest of his career. And you certainly don't do it. And we don't do that with Josh Allen. So how do you do that on the road with Mason Rudolph? I don't think Pickens is a lock, but I would like the volatility in my lineup and the potential for a big game. So boom versus boom, would you play Pickens or Gabe Davis? I would.

I would be playing Pickens and Gabe Davis if I'm an underdog in the championship. He's saying you got both of those guys. Who are you throwing in? Pickens. Okay. Yeah, but again, I would not play either one if I was a favorite. I would not be wanting to risk basically a goose on my roster. Not just a favorite. I think if you're in a somewhat even match, if you're within 10 point projection, I would rather not play George Pickens. George Pickens is in my lineup if I'm an underdog and I. have to have a big blowup performance. Jalen Warren has not been special since week 11. He is under seven points per game over the last five games, Naji Harris, been a little bit better in that stretch, I believe, at least last week he was the running back 18. Is your competence level on the Naji side in this one, or is it on the Warren side? Yeah, it's definitely on the Noggi side. Or on the neither side. I think, I think Noggi is a fine play.

The Seahawks have gotten better against the run, but the volume is there for Najee. He's not someone that, you know, he's not Christian McCaffrey. He's never going to be confused for some kind of super explosive, awesome vision running back. But when you're getting so often 19, 20 opportunities, that's just good for fantasy. One last question for you real quick. Where does Sharbonnet slot in if Kenneth Walker were to miss this game? Does he slide in above Zemir White against Indianapolis? Man, both are good matchups, but Zemir White has been on fire and his matchup is much better. So I would put Zemir ahead of Charbonnet, but don't hear what I'm not saying. If Charbonnet is alone and Walker doesn't play, Charbonnet is a very good start. The Chargers are 5 and 10 taking on Jarrett Stedham's Denver Broncos, who are 7 and 8. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Denver minus 3.5.

The Over Under is 37. This morning in the, I was having my coffee at home. I shared a couple things with you guys. I found really old Google Docs from like when this show started, like, you know, a long time ago. And I stumbled on my notes for Jarrett Stidham. Really? For the draft, which note number one, I said smart cat. Smart guy. But you said cat. Yeah, I did say I did write cat. I said smart cat. Number two, I said, NFL backup. I said this guy, and he has been. He's been the prototypical backup. Did you make a note about destroyer of careers? You don't mean like a contract assassin? Yeah. No, I didn't. You did say smart cat, though. Yeah, you know what? I did say that. Yeah. But his agents doing good work. He's going to be the start of the rest of the year for the Denver Broncos. Easton Stick on the other side. I don't think we expected this matchup.

It's probably a quick one for fantasy purposes. You still have Cortland Sutton not practicing. Jerry Judy got three targets last week despite the absence of Sutton. Marvin Mims is banged up, but should get an opportunity. Austin Echler. I think he's okay in this one. I do too. I know Austin Echler's been disappointing, and it's probably irrelevant because if you've had him, you might not be in the championship based on the last month or so. But the matchup is good, the opportunity is good, and I think he's going to come through in championship week. Now, Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer probably not playing. So Gerald Everett, really like him for fantasy. Yep. On the course of the season, the Broncos are about as good as it gets over the last six weeks. They are as good as it gets for a matchup for tight end. He is both Mr. Necessary, eight targets in three straight weeks, and it's a perfect matchup for him. So I think Gerald Everett is like, he's my

go-to absolute stream of the week type of player, even in championship. I'm mostly avoiding, like I like the Broncos defense the most this week. I liked him at home against the Eastern Stick with no whiteouts. I think that the Broncos defense is a really solid play. On their offensive side of the ball, like it's like Giovante. Yeah, Javante should be good. We don't know about Cortland Sutton. Cortland Sutton is someone that I would. want to play. Like if he was activated and passed through the concussion protocol, I would play him. We saw monstrous games from Devonte Adams last year with Jared Stidham in a surprise matchup against San Francisco where Stidham threw for like 303. Stidham is also pretty interesting. I mean, if you're talking about like a DFS dart throw, I'm not going to rely on him in a championship week, but he's put up.

Big performances last year, his two games, seven rushing attempts, both games. So he's, you know, on a super flex level. Do you like a DFS kind of quarterback that you have on your roster? He has, he was my DFS quarterback all week, but I did pivot. Did you realize that Javante has negative receiving yards in two straight games? Yeah, the Javante discussion heading into next year is going to be a very interesting one. Because adjusting expectations, I think, is the new. That's the movie coming out for Giovante Williams. And crossing your fingers and hoping. Cincinnati's 8 and 7, the Chiefs are 9 and 6. The game's an Arrowhead. It's an afternoon game. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Kansas City minus 6 and a half. The overrunners 44. And here we are. The struggling Kansas City offense and Matt Nagy and Andy Reed.

and no wide receivers. Since the bi-week, Kansas City is two and four record-wise, they've covered this spread one time, and that is kind of shocking. You have a matchup here that seems ideal, a bad defense, a get-right game for Patrick Mahomes. I made him a start of the week with Travis Kelsey. Are you guys in on that narrative, or is there a, like, what's the percentage chance of continued disappointment for this offense? I'd put it pretty low. Like, I'm with you that I think that this is a get-right game. for the offense. If you have Mahomes, I'm not bailing on him for this matchup in championship week. Same for Travis Kelsey. I mean, the question is, what does the offense look like with the running back situation? We're not expecting Pacheco to play with the concussion. And I think even if, so if Clyde's the main guy, I still think that the passing volume actually goes up a little bit, not out of control, but.

They try and throw a little bit more because they've been with Pacheco at the helm. They've been, you know, far more balanced and sometimes even a run heavy team. So I'm still good with Patrick Mahomes. And if Clyde, I said at the top, if Clyde is good to go, I'm playing him against the Bengals. Anything to add, Jason? No, I echo everything Mike said. I think it will be more pass heavy. No, I love what you said. Thank you. Okay. Rashi Rice, the targets were there last week. So he's in most of your lineups. Cadarius, Tony, should be back. Justin Watson, MVS. Don't forget Justin Ross. Don't forget Richie James. So there will be a seven, six pack again. No, thank you. Yeah, it's, it's Rushi Rice and check out. And, yeah, and obviously Kelsey. On the other side, Jamar Chase, he was limited. He was also.

Trash talk in the KC secondary like a man that's going to play some football. Jamar was really poking the bear. It did seem, though, like when you watch that interview, it's like this sounds like someone that's playing this week. You was talking about this matchup and so. Is it a trap with the way Legerius Sneed has played? It's a trap, but it's a beautiful, elaborate, well laid out trap that I am going to step into. So you're putting, because you have this decision, right? You have Zay Flowers. Yeah. You have Jamar Chase. tough matchup for wide receivers against Legerius Sneed. Jamar Chase coming off of an injury with a backup quarterback. He will be in your lineup over Zay Flowers. More than likely, but I also. Be in mine over Zay Flowers too. I'm also a massive underdog. Huge. The way that I see Zay Flowers ceiling, which Zay Flowers has hit ceiling in like three of the last four games, but Zay Flowers is not a 152 touchdown. Chase is a one touch guy.

That's what's beautiful about it. Yeah. He's had some games with Browning where you're like, nothing's happening. And then all of a sudden, 70-yard touchdown. I, look, I wouldn't blame anybody for putting the guy they drafted top five into your lineup for a championship game. Yeah. Yeah, he'll probably be in most people's lineups. If he's active, if he's active, does that push you away from T. Higgins? Or does that make you think, hey, well, Jerry Snee is going to be on. Higgins is. It puts his way of Tyler Boyd. Yes. Yes. Yes. And then Joe Mixing, we talked about him. You know, he's going to have opportunities. Let's get that volume. Sunday night, football. Brooks, is this the last game of championship week? Yeah. It is. Green Bay, Minnesota, both team seven and eight. The Drafking Sportsbook line, Minnesota minus one at home, the over under 43.5. Man, this game is massive for these teams. Well, Jaron Hall, getting the start. Rookie from BYU.