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Main show · August 1, 2018

NFC East Breakdown, Josh Doctson, August Hype!

RSSAug 1, 2018 · transcript indexed
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NFC East Breakdown, Josh Doctson, August Hype!

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27:40 ↗

in place and some of those offensive pieces. Even better to your case is Kansas City, who we've seen lose offensive pieces while they've got an offensive-minded head coach, the same guy that Doug Peterson is from. So I am keeping that in mind. It's not like Atlanta where you've got a defensive head coach who loses their offensive coordinator. I think both running backs are values. That's where I wanted to go. They're big-time values. Third in rushing yards per game this past season, they ended.

28:08 ↗

as pro football focus number one offensive line graded out. And they are graded out as the number one offensive line heading into 2018. Legerick Blunt has moved on to the Detroit lines. How does this workload split up? Because Jay Ajai, if he gets any kind of workload like he was getting in Miami when he was the actual starter, then he is going to be a tremendous value for fantasy football. But you have.

28:38 ↗

The caveat of Corey Clement, who was emerging as a red zone option for them, it seems like Ajai should be the goal on guy, but they were preferring Corey Clement there. Corey Clement was elevating in the passing game as well. So what does that split look like? Because Ajai, is he still going in the fourth round? Yes. I'm very intrigued in him as a fourth round pick. While I worry about some of the pieces, the nice thing is that they're not.

29:07 ↗

too overpriced. Ajaya is worth the risk there because if they do what the Eagles franchise has done in the past, which is, look, he's on a contract year and they don't usually pay up for running backs. So they could just use him to the end, just wear him down and then move forward. He could get the volume. And I do think the team will be, you know, Vegas has them at 10 and a half wins. Right. So they're not going to do that without scoring.

29:32 ↗

You know, Jay Ajay is not a bad pick. But, you know, I said this when we were, sorry, go ahead. When we were on NBC and Philly, that Corey Clement is the guy would rather, just because he's a 10th round pick, like he's free. He's six rounds later. Yeah, I would rather just take a cheap shot on a cheap shot on the Eagles office. You are the cheap shot, King. Look, I think Ajai is such a good value that I'd still prefer him over Clement at the draft price.

29:58 ↗

because of the workload upside. But we talk so much about these offenses where we don't know what the backfield's like, right? And Mike, we've talked about Green Bay and Baltimore and Tampa and like all of these backfield situations where we're like, man, it's muddy so people don't want to touch them. Haven't even brought up sprawls coming back. But Philly, like you said, they're the number one offensive line. And they have one of those. They're the first best. They're the first best. Take a look at this. So fourth round. Let's say you're at the top of the fourth round.

30:27 ↗

These are the running backs, according to ADP, that you could be choosing from. Alex Collins, J. Ajai, Kenyon, Drake, Rashad Penny. Those are the fourth round running backs. To me, it's Ajai. Jay Jai, it is to me as well. Let me ask you one more question before we move on to the next team in our NFC's breakdown. Well, maybe more than one question, but let me ask you this one first. Is there any value in Dallas Goddard? Got it. You keep saying good. I'm saying Goddard.

30:57 ↗

That's the same. I just want people to know. We know it's Dallas Goddard. There's value the way that Trey Burton had value last year. So I know value. Yes. If Zach Hertz misses time, then Dallas Goddard, who was my number one tight end coming into the draft as far as fantasy football is concerned, he went to...

31:17 ↗

close to the worst possible place because he will be behind Zach Kurtz. I don't think there's enough to go around for two tight ends to have significant fantasy value. So I'm bummed. I would not be shocked. And it would be a little bit more surprising this season. But I would not be shocked based on Doug Peterson, always using his personnel.

31:37 ↗

to where it develops more into a two wide receiver, two tight-in, gronk, Aaron Hernandez situation. I think Dallas Goddard is a dynasty pick. Is he interesting to you? He is. I actually just made a trade offer for him, I think, yesterday. I also, before I leave and we talk about the Cowboys, I'm going to circle back to Carson Wins here. Carson Wins' absence at the end of the season before the Super Bowl is one of the reasons why I don't see Philly as much as a...

32:04 ↗

as as much of a candidate for a Super Bowl slump as other teams in the past, Matt Ryan with the monster season throughout the year, Cam Newton. I think there's a chip on the shoulder of Carson Wins to come back and prove that he is everything that we saw for the first part of the year. But my point is a lot of new listeners now joining us in August. We've talked a lot about the fact that Carson Wins put up numbers from a touchdown efficiency standpoint that really cannot be replicated over the course of a career.

32:33 ↗

But Carson Wentz still has upside. Where do you guys see him falling in in terms of the top 10, 15 quarterbacks? Just from a statistical standpoint, yes, he can't sustain maybe as that, you know, throwing a touchdown on every other pass type of guy. But where do you think he can fall? What's his range of outcomes this season for fantasy owners? Can he finish in the top three still? Yes, his range of outcomes, why Carson Wentz won't be on my teams, is that range of outcomes.

33:03 ↗

I've talked a lot about his touchdown percentage of the 7%. It's just bound to fall by at least 2%. I know he was fantastic this past year, and it was comparing him to his rookie season. It's very different. He's learning how to play in the NFL. But it seems like people believe, okay, 7%, just a top three fantasy quarterback, we've seen it for half a season. That's who Carson Wentz is.

33:32 ↗

So I'm not ready to crown him with that. And I see his range of outcomes is quarterback one all the way down to quarterback 12 to 14. I see a huge variance in what Carson Wentz could be this year. And so those who want to take the shot, you could be rewarded by Carson Wentz. But for me, I'm likely out.

33:53 ↗

Oh, see, I think he's locked in. If he plays 16, if he's ready week one, which he did avoid the pup and he looks okay in camp right now, but that's very different than actually taking blows to the knee by, you know, 300 pound.

34:05 ↗

men trying to kill you. Right. You know, he had 300 rushing yards in 13 games. That baseline with this offense means that you're not going to fall too low, even if the touchdown, you know, efficiency drops. I see him as a top 10 quarterback if he plays 16. We both have them or we all have a conservative approach to Wince. We actually have him as our consensus QB9 tied with Deshaun Watson, another player with insane efficiency last season. I have him at six. Mike eight.

34:34 ↗

Jason 11 as of today. You can see all the rankings at the fancy footballers.com. Cowboys. All right. Let's talk about the Dallas Cowboys. Still turned in a 9 and 7 record last season despite the disruption caused by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension along with the regression. And I think that's a fair word to use in light of Dak Prescott's second half.

34:56 ↗

He is another player with a wide range of outcomes. Right now, we have Dak Prescott as our consensus QB19, but I think we all agree that if things go right, he can finish higher than that, but we don't know how the wide receiver depth chart is going to break down. Big time subtractions. You lose Des Bryant and Jason Witten. That is 132 targets to Des Bryant, 87 to Jason Witten. That's 219 targets. Gone. That's a lot. Poof.

35:24 ↗

Opportunity exists for players like Alan Hurons, Michael Gallup, Cole Beasley, Terrence Williams to step into those target holes, but I don't know how excited we are for one to emerge as of today. This is one of the bigger things. If you put in the top 10 camp battle situations, I'm excited to see where the wide receiver situation goes. You see the talk of Cole Beasley, they're shifting them around now, trying to move them to the outside. Good luck.

35:54 ↗

I like Beas. I think he's a good NFL player. Sure. He's a slot-wide receiver. Yes. I mean, we got Tavon Austin arrive now as well. They're going to use them as a big body box-out red zone threat. They just think that would be, you know, good for his fantasy value. Who do we put in that Des Bryant spot? Let's put Cole Beasley. No, I think Tavon Austin has, I think his situation is interesting because there is just an absence of playmakers on this offense outside of Ezekiel Elliott. Fair?

36:24 ↗

Yeah, to me, Alan Hearns is the clear-cut beneficiary of the absent targets. I am firmly confident that he will be the guy to emerge as the number one. Now, what I'm not confident in is that the number one weapon for Dallas is going to be something really special for fantasy. You know, Des was still the number one guy last year, and it didn't amount to very much. But I am confident as of this moment that...

36:52 ↗

Alan Hearns will be the primary target, both, you know, red zone and between the 20s. Right now, Alan Hearns is an average apposition of nearly the 10th round. I love the value right now that he presents. You know, when you talk about 10th through, you know, the 16th round, taking a shot on somebody. Alan Hurons are Cameron Meredith, Mike? Man, that's tough. I'll still go Alan Hearns. Cole Beasley or Cameron Meredith? Meredith. Okay.

37:22 ↗

I'll take the ceiling over the guy. Beasley will get you, you know, the four, five points a week. Blake Jarwin is the top 20 tight-in? Maybe. That's a camp battle you have to watch, shakeout. That's genuinely one of the most important camp battles because, you know, it's not just because Jason Witten is so great. That role still will exist and DAC will target it, and we don't know who the titan is going to be.

37:50 ↗

I'm shaking my head over here because here's how fantasy football works right now today. We can be in the middle of a show and get news that Sony Michelle walked off the practice field of the medical. Oh, he's back! And no, now we have news coming up in the Redskins section. Let's just put it like that. I won't break it yet because we're not talking Redskins, but there is some news. What?

38:13 ↗

Other big fantasy storylines exist in Dallas. We know Ezekiel Elliott is a top five back. You got to talk about Zeke, and I just want to remind people real quick. Zeke missed six games, as I'm sure you know, he finished as the running back 10. He had one game against Denver that was atrocious, an atrocious game. That means in the other nine games that Ezekiel Elliott played last year, he ran the ball 233 times for 975 yards.

38:43 ↗

and seven touchdowns. He is a monster. If you want to take him at the 101, I personally would not. But we've talked about this recently in the office how at the 101, generally speaking, okay, there's one or two guys. There are so many guys that if you want to take them at the 101, including Zeke, I don't think it's a wrong move to start your fantasy team. Maybe six, if you include Camara, that are.

39:12 ↗

that are worthy of the one-on-one pick. His 16-game pace last season was 1,573 yards with 11 touchdowns on the ground, 42 receptions for 430 more yards and three receiving touchdowns. That was his 16-game pace. And Leonard Fournette bought him a treadmill. If his tweet is true. For a birthday present? Yeah. Yeah. Look, Zeke's great. Zeke's absolutely great. You just got to...

39:41 ↗

You don't know, you know, yeah, absolutely. Let's move on. Redskins. So this is what I wanted to mention because, you know, when we get into the Redskins, we're talking about a lot of turnover on this roster. You have a brand new quarterback. Oh, come on! I know. You have a brand new quarterback in Alex Smith. You have Josh Doxon, Paul Richardson, Jameson, Crowder. I've already seen this video. Josh Doxon was shaken up after hitting the ground.

40:06 ↗

Josh Norman landed on top of him. He walked off the field. I've seen the video of him walking off the field. Josh Doxon is favoring the left arm and left wrist. Could be a shoulder injury. We don't have any updates yet other than the fact that he walked off with an injury. So it's been a problem for Josh Doxon. Staying healthy to basically deliver on his promise, both for the Redskins in the NFL and for fantasy owners. So now we wait and see.

40:33 ↗

about Josh Doxon. He's been one of the camp highlights thus far. He's also had many injury problems throughout his NFL career. Well, we can add to it today. Hopefully the injury is not significant, but you never know. If this is an AC joint in the shoulder because he landed on it and somebody landed on top of him, you're going to miss time. Let's talk about the Redskins. I still like Alex Smith as the middle of the road starter and fantasy football. I want to talk about Alex Smith because I... Do it. I am rising on Alex Smith.

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