The Overreaction Episode + High Class Canned Food - Fantasy Football Podcast

He is Randy Moss meets Jerry Rice reborn and available for you with the first pick in fantasy leagues everywhere. That's how it feels right now. He's dynasty gold. I'll tell you that. Anybody who drafted him and then the way that season ended is feeling like they found a million dollars. We can't trust ADP right now, but you can't trust Dynasty ADP. And where he's going is...

insanely high he's basically like you know he's going over known commodity studs because of the the the the pure unadulterated potential of him being a beast and if look if if if you're listening right now you know at the end of March early April you probably listened to us last year we were

Giant A.J. Brown fans. I was, you know, leading the charge on my love for A.J. Brown, huge fan. He was a beast. We recommended him a lot down the stretch. It worked out well. So why am I essentially pumping the brakes on A.J. Brown and saying, I don't think he is a clear-cut fantasy football wide receiver one the way that the overreactions are happening. Some of that is what you just described, Andy. This is a team that.

When they win, they want to win throwing the ball five times and running the ball 45 times and defense and all of that. But there are certain stats that are insane for both A.J. Brown and for the Titans as a whole. My favorite one from this last season is once Tanna Hill took over and they were so prolific on offense, which is obviously a good thing, not a bad thing.

But how they were so prolific from week seven on, that was when Tanna Hill first started, they had 31 red zone touchdowns to one red zone field goal. It's pretty good. If they got in the red zone, you're not, you know, it was just like pretty much 100% you're giving up a touchdown, not a field goal, you know, if you don't stop them. And.

That's not a normal number. That's not going to happen. The touchdown rate, I mean, AJ Brown was a beast, was awesome, was incredible. He had 52 receptions. That's not the, you know. That's crazy. He had 52 receptions. Yeah, and we're viewing him. DeJackian.

Yeah, and the thing is, is a lot of that was because he'd catch these little slants, and it seemed like nobody could tackle the guy. He had 8.9 yards after catch per reception. Now, on one hand, that's why the hype is there, because he just looks so beastly. But on the other hand, that's not going to happen. You're not going to have a career of that. Otherwise, you are what I described. You're Randy Moss meets Jerry Rice, and you should take him in the first. He had the third highest yards per target ever.

for any wide receiver over 80 plus targets. There's just some numbers that I think you've got to pump the brakes on this offense. The reason I'm in on Tannahill versus Brown when I'm, you know, I'm kind of playing both sides is because of draft cost. A.J. Brown is going to cost a lot. I'm willing to take the shot that A.J. Brown is great and that Ryan Tannhill is great. If it costs me a double digit pick, you know, it's something in the 11th, 12th, 13th round and I can grab Ryan Tannahill there. A.J. Brown is going to skyrocket.

come draft season. He probably won't be on many of my rosters. And I'll give you a chance to weigh in, Mike, because I want to hear your thoughts on the Titans overall. But this feels like disrespect hour for the Titans' offense in Tanna Hill and AJ Brown. It's not meant to be, but it's almost giving them credit for being so outlandishly good over the back half of the year and what that means for fantasy owners, Mike. Do you think that, are you concerned that you're going to have these two players disappear?

on a regular basis. That's my biggest concern. Not that they'll be great sometimes, but that you won't be able to rely on them because this offense can win with 72 yards passing, which doesn't help either of them. I think that they will disappear. It will happen, but it won't be the norm. I think that'll be good more often than not. What I'm looking at is they just gave Ryan Tannenhill that monster contract, right? I mean, and...

The newest quarterback contract always looks like it's insane because it's the new standard. So I'm not saying he got overpaid, but he got paid very, very well, paid to be a franchise quarterback. And Derek Henry is on a one-year deal right now. So it's like the team says Ryan Tannenhill, you are the solution. Derek Henry, we're not willing to pay you.

the money that you want yet. We could get towards the season, and all of a sudden, Derek Henry has a long-term contract, just saying that Ryan Tanyhill is there for the long-term, A.J. Brown is currently there for the long-term, so they're going to be used. There will be games, though, just like the playoffs, where Tannenhill has under 100 passing yards, and you're ripping your hair out. But overall, I think they will both be, they will both be solid for fantasy. Would you rather have Kirk Cousins as your quarterback to Ryan Tannahill, right?

Are we talking fantasy or real life? Give me both. Fantasy, I would rather have Tannahill. Fantasy, I think I'd take Tannahill, but real life I would take Kirk Cousins, yeah. Yeah, I can agree with that. I think the thing that's, you know, a little bit lost in Tannahill, some of those games in the playoffs where he had.

you know, sub 100 passing yards weren't actually bad fantasy games because he ran on the ball a lot and had rushing touchdowns. You know, that's something Kirk Cousins isn't going to add quite to the same degree. And both teams want to win by not throwing the ball a lot. So you've got that same issue both sides. Okay. Mike, you have an overreaction for us. All right. I will not be overreacting to the Patriots offense, especially I want to talk about Julian Edelman. I won't be writing him off.

without TB, TB 12. And I can see the faces of my colleagues here who are not buying into what I am talking about. I thought I muted my face. You can see this. My bad. And here's, here's my defense of Julian Edelman. Yes, he is old, but he's, but he also has no Tom Brady. No, that's correct. He has no Tom Brady. Just hold on.

He just posted, speaking to his age, he just posted the highest receiving yardage total of his entire career. He's already broken the age curve. Like, he's already an outlier to the point of, I'm not going to say, okay, this is the year that Julian Edelman is going to fall off the cliff because he's already multiple years over it. Like, guys, just there are some outliers who get to play into their, into upper years.

that most players don't get to do. His consistency, since he has taken over the role for the Patriot, slot-wide receiver, 66 yards of game, 69 yards of game, 77, 69, 71, 70. He is so unbelievably consistent. But here's the point I want to bring up for, without Tom Brady. In 2008, Matt Castle was forced to be the starting quarterback because Tom Brady tore his ACL right in that first game. Matt Castle was fine.

Like his production, 327 completions, almost 3,700 yards, 21 touchdowns. He supported two top 13 fantasy wide receivers, Randy Moss and West Welker. No, I'm not saying Julian Edelman is Randy Moss, but Julian Edelman is just as good as Wes Welker. And that year, where seventh round draft pick Matt Castle had to start, Welker put up 111 receptions, almost 1,200 yards, only three touchdowns.

But PPR machine and was the wide receiver 13. I don't need whoever comes in at quarterback for New England to be himself a production machine because they're going to go to Julian Edelman. He's still going to see a whole bunch of targets. And so I think that come ADP time, Julian Edelman is likely going to be underdrafted yet again. I think come 80p time, you will have Julian Edelman on all your teams.

Which is what your point is. I mean, he'll be 34 when the season begins and he'll be starting over with the new quarterback. So he will be in a position where if what you're saying is true, he will be a massive value. I agree completely that he will outperform his ADP because nobody's going to want him. Just look at Andy and I's face when you throw this out there. Nobody's going to want him because the upside isn't there losing Tom Brady, being older. He'll.

almost certainly outperform his ADP because he will be the number one on his team. If you're in a PPR league, a full PPR, he will have enough receptions to be relevant from time, you know, consistently someone that if you've got a double flex, you're going to be happy that you've got him there. The question is, will that be enough to matter to me? Frank Gore, year after year after year, outperformed his ADP didn't really matter much towards the end. I think, I think it's a style thing.

for fantasy. Like Edelman's not going to be the kind of player on my team. Just based on how some people play with the potential upside. Even last year with Brady, he was only in the top 10, I think three times over the course of the year on this, on this super year of where he had. Only in the top 10, but how often was he a top 24? I don't have the numbers in front of. I mean, I can tell you it was nine out of 16 games. You're going to get Julian Edelman in that range. I just, I want to know.

who's quarterback and I want to know how big that drop is going to be. Because if you take 20% off of what he did last year, I mean, maybe that seems like best case scenario. See, that's what I'm talking about. I believe. This is why you'll have it. I believe so much in Bill Belichick and his offense and that he will get it together that I think Julian Edelman will be a massive draft steal. Okay. Here's an overreaction that I think will take place. I mean, we were beautifully distracted.

just last week by Bill O'Brien. Oh, Bill. Oh, Bill. I'm so thankful to Bill. He distracted us from all that was going on out here in Arizona. We need to get a signed picture from Pristine Auction and hang it in the studio of Bill O'Brien. Yeah, 100%. I'm on it. Oh, yeah, take care of that. And he gave us this distraction when he traded D'Andre Hopkins away and he got David Johnson. Now, David Johnson is a perfect example of a player in fantasy.

Between the social media, the public fallout, the deep, scarring, fantasy burns that David Johnson has left on owners for multiple seasons dealing with injury and underwhelming performances on the field. I think it will be very easy to react to this deal focused on Hopkins. Ignore David Johnson. The narrative of David Johnson is done. Is already out there. Let's make fun of Bill. But I want us to remember.

the situation and circumstance David Johnson is actually walking into next year with Houston. First of all, they're obviously paying him a lot of money. They're paying his whole salary. They made this transaction and they acquired everything that David Johnson is, including that salary. But you also had a situation last year where a player that was almost certifiably done that was cut by Kansas City, Carlos Hyde, comes in and has... I think Kansas traded him. Okay.

barely preceding a cut. Yeah. No, no, your point is well made that he was, no one wanted him from San Francisco. Then he was cut by Jacksonville. And yeah, I'm with him. Yeah. Yeah. And you had a situation where all of a sudden, Carlos Hyde is very, very relevant for fantasy owners on a weekly basis. In fact, he was top 36 in all but three of the games he played in last year. Now, he wasn't a world beater, but he was Carlos Hyde getting the rock in that offense. We already know.

that David Johnson's a world-class catcher. I mean, that's something that he did not show any disintegrating ability last year. Hopkins just evaporated from this offense. DJ was the main pickup in that trade. And I think we all agreed to Sean Watson's a good quarterback and he can move an offense. So to me, David Johnson is that player that, look, you can't call me a homer anymore because he ain't on my home team, but he's in a situation where he's going to have massive opportunity.

He could see a lot of passing game work that, you know, we don't expect because of the Hopkins move. But either way, he's going to be a better than Carlos Hyde is my point, which means you're going to have a player that I think you can rely on as a running back two type of player.

He's not going to be irrelevant. You're not paying him that money and trading DeAndre Hopkins to get him to have him be irrelevant. So even if he is, you know, sometimes we talk about is he washed as a runner because he looked slow in the system. Even if he's lost a step or two, he will be relevant in fantasy. You know, you saw that like your... Yeah, Hyde had lost so many steps. Yeah. Like 50 steps. Carlos Hyde, you know, even before the injury, Lamar Miller was looking a little slow. He was relevant for fantasy. I think...