Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - NFC West Breakdown, News, Mailbag

Well, we talked about Iopati coming to Arizona. Frank Gore is gone. It's going to be strange watching him suit up in another uniform. Michael Crabtree is gone. Stevie Johnson is gone. And they had a number of defensive players retire. Quattro. They lost. Chris Borland is gone. Patrick Willis is gone. Anthony Davis. The tackle is gone. And so you also bring in Jim Tom Sula.

uh replacing the jim harbaugh era the era is over this is a team that was the fourth ranked rushing team but the 30th ranked passing team last year uh so let's talk about colin cavernic let's talk about carlos hyde reggie bush uh tory smith is in addition to that team this year so what jumps out of the page at you in terms of the 49ers um

I'm really excited to see if Jim Tomsula continues his current garment.

his clothing attire. Oh, what is he rocking? As he becomes a head coach, you know, this is huge fantasy relevant. But have you never seen? No. Oh, man. Well, I guess I've never paid attention. Yeah. So he's on the sideline with like some kind of like sport jacket and no undershirt. He just, I'm telling you like the European chest hair coming out. That's amazing. Oh, he looks like he's straight up from Jersey just on the sideline, you know, coaching guys with it's. Please. Please.

Please tell me he has shorts on. Yeah, I hope so. You know who I'm actually warming up on, and I've always been a career hater of Tori Smith. But I actually think that Tori Smith is going to have good rapport with Colin Kaepernick. Colin Kaepernick, you would have to say, statistics-wise, I am super high on him compared to normal. I've got him ranked number nine, and that's much higher than most people have him. No.

There is a man in this room. What? Oh, that's right. I forgot. I saw it. Andy, speak. That's, I mean, I... He's gone mute. I don't know what to happen, but you got to announce this. Very high on Colin Kaepernick. This is a four point touchdown throwing. Yes, yes, yes. Big difference between where I have them, well, not big, but a big difference, four to, I think, nine or ten. But I have Kaepernick at number four overall in four point...

uh passing touchdown leagues which i know will blow a lot of people's minds you don't see i'm still recouping yeah you don't see that a lot of places and i can pull up my statistics for him but he's a guy who over the course of his career has improved statistically almost every single season and the way that that offense is shaping up and and from what i have witnessed with my eyes and heard from

People watching him in the offseason is that he is working on his craft. And I think he's going to have the opportunity to run a lot this year. I think Tori Smith only helps him. Vernon Davis is going to be involved in the offense again. And I'm not projecting some kind of insane year. But when you have a guy with those legs, if he can make a small statistical upgrade in the yards and touchdowns. It's pretty good. And run for 600-something yards.

That puts him in that place of the 456 in that type of... And that's why I have him there. How many yards do you have him running for? Hold on. Let me see that. Because last year he ran for 639 yards. And this year they've been saying, you know, when you talk to the coaching staff, they're saying that they're going to really unleash him and let him use his legs more. And...

They pretty much did last year, right? But they were criticizing their use of him that way. So I think that's going to go up even more. And what's crazy about that is I think I saw a stat somewhere that there's only been one time in the history of the NFL where a quarterback has ran for over 600 yards and got...

less than four touchdowns? And he only got one, one touchdown running. Let me give you some statistics for him. This is what projected to my number four, okay? Could Colin Kaepernick throw for 3,300 yards? 100%. Okay, could he pass for 25 touchdowns? Absolutely. Because I believe he did 23 last year. 19. Okay, what was the year before? I don't have that in front of me. I think he was 20, 22. Yeah, it went down last year. So I haven't been at 25. Okay, I've got him a small bump in that.

Can he rush for 690 yards? Yeah, absolutely. He could. Five touchdowns. On the ground, yeah. So that's what my projection was. I wasn't trying to be insane and send ripples through the fantasy community. But I just don't understand why I see him at 18, 19, 20 on a bunch of people's lists. I think it comes down to the game that I think that Colin Kaepernick is trying to improve is his Instagram game.

That's what I really see him. He's got a lot of work to do on that. That's what I see him working on is the... But he's good, right? Oh, those abs? Yeah, totally. But... His shoe game on Instagram. The passing... He's got a lot of shoes. So his numbers have gone up, but he still threw... They were 29th out of 32 in pass attempts. So they're still not throwing... That only speaks more to his potential to me. Right. And to me, it's...

If you're banking on the legs the way that Jason's banking on Cam Newton's legs, then I completely understand. To me, it's such a hard thing to really count on. If he does exactly what he did last year, which was 3,369 yards, but he throws for 25 touchdowns instead of 19. Which because their team doesn't have the running game, they don't have the defense anymore. I don't think the 49ers are going to be better as a team. No way.

I think Kaepernick's going to be better as a player. He ran for 639 yards. His rushing yards went up three consecutive years. His passing yards have gone up every single year. He's played. To be fair, he's only played two full years. Yeah. Well, okay. You're correct. But I'm ignoring that. No, not really. But yeah, yeah, he threw for...

he played 13 games in his first season, and he was running more than. He wasn't throwing. Right. And then 3,100, 3,300. Tori Smith over Michael Crabtree is, especially right now at this point in Crabtree's career, I think it's a big improvement for him. He's the type of wide receiver that's going to be able to run out on those scrambles and end up with a couple big plays that keep drives alive and score more touchdowns. So the guy that I'm casually excited about,

on the 49ers is Anquan Bolden. Here's a guy, he's the veteran who just doesn't quit. He gets it done last year, 130 targets. He finished as... He does not John Snow ever. No, he finished as a wide receiver 18. And in the two years of... Finished the 18? Wide receiver 18. That's... I mean, no one would have guessed that. In two years, in San Francisco, he's averaging 84 catches, 1,100 yards. And...

Cabernet loves going to him on third down, too, and in the red zone. Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd are gone. That's 193 targets. Those targets have to go somewhere where Tori Smith is going to get his. He can't get 193. No, the way that Tori Smith plays at, at least the way they used him, and maybe Vernon Davis gets a bump. But to me, the real bump is Anquam Bolden. I like it. And Reggie Bush, who we haven't even talked about, but Reggie Bush. Yeah, that's a good point.

And where I see that defense just got so crushed this off season. And I don't know if the coaching staff can really pick it up and put it together if they can. I mean, hats off. That would be a fantastic job to recover. So I see them trailing in games. Yeah, they were a bad offense last year. And that's why, why for the part of where the Carlos Hyde fading is coming in as I see him as a two down back.

And I think Reggie Bush is going to be on the field a ton. And that helps Colin Kaepernick a lot. Yes, it does. Because the game plan of the offense took Frank Gore and his pass catching away. But if he catches 50 balls, which that's a lot, let's say 40 balls. 50 is perfectly fine. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but let's just say 40, right? So he only catches 40 and, you know, pretty much running backs, I feel like average to good running backs, average about 10 yards per catch.

So that's 400 yards. You know, and that's extra that wasn't really there last year because they weren't really using Frank Gore in the running game that much or in the passing game. And so I think that that's just more yards, more opportunity. I completely agree. He does help Kaepernick's numbers overall. I actually have Bush projected for upwards of 70 catches this year, which I don't think is outlandish for his history and track record. Yeah, it could happen.

But it will depend on how often he's on the field, like you said. I think a lot of good information there for San Francisco. I'm going to throw one name out there. I'm not going to say much about him. But just remember that like Danny Hoodhead. Like Danny Woodhead. Yes. Kendall Hunter is back. Yes. And it doesn't mean he's going to have a big role, but he's going to be competing for a role. And he is a veteran now. He was the up-and-comer behind Gore. And so...

You might see a little bit of a Hyde Bush Hunter timeshare thing going on there. I know a lot of people want Hyde to be that big guy, and maybe he is, but his yards per carry just weren't there last year last year, and so it leaves me a little bit concerned. So let's talk about the last team here in the NFC West. The St. Louis Rams, Jeff Fisher, trying to get this team on track. They had a very, very good defense last year.

Todd Gurley in the first round. And so he's a guy we can talk about. They've also traded Sam Bradford and picked up Nick Foles. And they're talking contracts. I was going to say there's some reports about a long-term deal for Foles today. That's crazy. It's pretty bewildering. There's no reason for it. Well, they talked, oh, is it a buy low? You know, because they think he's good. But boy, I'd like to see whether that first year from Foles was an anomaly, which I think a lot of people believe it is. So some interesting numbers on Nick Foles.

From 2013 to 2014. He had almost identical attempts, okay? But he went from 27 to 13 touchdowns. He went from 2 to 10 interceptions. He went from a 64% completion, completion percentage to 60, 2,900 yards to 2,100. That's not good, right? With the same work load. No, though, that's... And he's stepping out of that offense? So I...

I think Nick Foles is going to be severely exposed. Yeah. And what do you think the Rams want to do with their game? What do you think they want to do based on the fact that they spent their first pick on a running back? And then their second, third, and fourth rounder, you know, three of the, yeah, a second, a third, and a fourth rounder on tackles. Well, they lost a whole bunch of tackles. Yeah, it's like, you know, they're focused on that run game.

Which is always Jeff Fisher. Yeah, the up front, get it short up, let Nick Foles go out there and make a play here or there, but don't. I mean, no expectations for fantasy whatsoever from Nick Foles. And to me, speaking to the run game, don't completely abandon Trey Mason just yet. I know Todd Gurley was a really high draft pick. He's still coming off an ACL injury. Trey Mason was a third round pick who had a great college career. He had a great NFL year. I mean, he was good.

Yeah, he represents some early season value for sure that people aren't necessarily paying attention to. And something interesting, I don't know if you guys have heard this or remember this about Trey Mason of home versus away. Talk about a Jekyll Hyde. At home, 92 carries 460 yards, four touchdowns. Five yards a carry. Away, 87 carries for 300 yards. So 3.5 yards per carry. I know scheduling things mix into this formula, but to drop,

A yard and a half per carry when you go on the road is a little bit weird for a professional running back. But to me, it just says, I'm taking Trey Mason later. I'm going to play him when he's at home. Do you guys have any thoughts on Trey Mason? Well, I, you know, I've thought beforehand that, you know, people have asked, okay, if I take Levy on Bell.

You know, do I take DeAngelo Williams? And the guy that has always come up to me is Trey Mason because I think that Gurley's not going to be used much even if he's ready, you know, but I don't expect him to play those first few games necessarily. And so Trey Mason has value there. However, his first two games are on the road. Oh, no. Don, don't. But who's he playing? The Raiders and the Titans. So.