Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 20 RB's, Preseason, Fantasy News, Mailbag

Okay. I've got the 4-9. But the difference where, if we're talking about O'Dell Beckham and Jeremy Hill, is carries. Caries, to me, are far more reliable than targets, because they target has to do with how the flow of the game. Depends on so much, yeah. Who's open, what play is being called for a carry, you just say, oh, Jeremy Hill's getting the ball. And then he goes. And what I like about him so much is the touchdowns. Like his ceiling for touchdowns is.

gigantic. Now, we always say touchdowns aren't easily predictable, but I think... No, I agree. I think for Hill, they will be. So he had nine last year, and to start the year, Gio had three touchdowns of one yard, and he had one touchdown that was a four-yard run. Those four touchdowns are going to Jeremy Hill this year. So that puts him at 13. I just... I really think... So you have him as probably leading the league in touchdowns in running back position? I also strongly believe he has three down back. I'm not...

scared of Geo like most people. He can catch the ball a little bit. Yeah, he's talented at catching. He is my 11 right now, but I think he's much better in standard leagues than PPR because Geo is a weapon. Geo will be on the field. All right, we need to move on. These next two guys are tied. So once again, I will, I'll put DeMarco Murray first because he was first in everybody's hearts last year. DeMarco at number eight, tied with Justin Forsett.

And our consensus rankings. Standard? Which is interesting because Forsette had about 150 less carries than Do Marco last year, which is incredible. That is a pretty big disparity. It's like almost one Jamal Charles amount of carries away from each other. DeMarco, obviously last year, he was both great and efficient, 4.7 a carry, 1,800 yards, got the ball almost 400 times. He can catch the ball. Jeez.

It was kind of one of those perfect storms for DeMarco. Now, he's on a team that could do some things offensively to make it another perfect storm. And so we have him at number eight. What do you see it breaking down? I know we've talked about in the past, but Ryan Matthews, Sproles, and DeMarco, if you had to break it up percentage-wise, what do you guys think? I got DeMarco sitting between right around 65, I think. That's the exact number that's in my head. I think he gets the ball a ton.

Think, wow, he ran the ball so much last year. The Eagles ran the ball only 34 times less than the Cowboys. So they run the ball a ton up in Philadelphia. You know, if you go back and look at Chip Kelly in college, he had some years where he had a complete bell cow. But when he had two good backs, he split work. And he's done that before on a real, real heavy split basis. Guys getting same carries. I don't see him getting 65% of the carries there. I really don't. I think that they just went and signed.

Two injury prone backs, both who are fantastic, both who are coming in brand new, and all of a sudden we are crowning DeMarco Murray while we're forgetting about Ryan Matthews. I think it's going to be more like a 55, 40, and then Sproles taking in the rest. Wow, 40?

Yeah, I love Ryan. I love Ryan Matthews this year. So maybe not 40, maybe 35. I mean, these are guesses, right? We haven't seen it. But I think it's going to be a much closer split than the average person is thinking, just based on a little bit of history, based on keeping both players healthy. And we don't know. And you can get one, and you've got to take them in the back of the first or second. And the other, you can get super late in the draft. So, yeah. That's good perspective on DeMarco. The guy tied with him is Justin Foresat, which in standard leagues might surprise some people.

he's going to be on the field, and I don't think anybody's going to compete with him. And so if he can do what he did last year, we're going to see a high-volume guy. I don't think 250 carries. I think we're talking 220. Yeah, I've got him listed for 225 at a 4.7 yards per carry. Last year, I think he was 5-2. So I've dropped him in that, but I've upped his...

catches to 70. We talked about this a lot on recent shows about Tresman coming in and proof positive that it should happen. And just with that, getting those yards, you know, he gets yards every time he gets a catch. So just Forte averaged 112 targets. Wait, Forte. Forte. Yeah, we're talking about Forset, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Matt Forte is next on our board, so I thought you were moving on. No, no. Under Mark Tresman's system, Forte averaged 112 targets a year. Yeah.

And we talked about Trestman in the 15 gyms episode and how often he throws the running back. So it's really, you can rely on him catching the ball each and every week. Matt Forte, leaving the Trestman system, comes in at number 10. He is somebody that I am slowly moving up a little bit. We had him way down compared to the other kind of experts in the field. He is slightly moving up my board. He is a top...

So where is he now? He's 10 for me, I believe. Oh, well, that's what I got him at it. Yeah, that's where he came in at our consensus. Yeah, he is number 10 on my standard board, which I think is just the right place for Matt Forte. There is going to be a more of a dependence on the running game itself in Chicago with John Fox coming in with the realization that J. Cutler cannot win a game for you through the air. Yeah. That being said, his numbers are going to come down because he's not going to catch as many passes. And so he's still an RB1 for me.

he's getting older. And he has a lot of touches, over 2,200 touches. And what we've said all along on Forte is not that he's just completely done. I think he's about to hit the cliff. It's just the comparison where people are trying to take him as a top three back still when he's not going to get that workload. He's not going to get the catches. I agree. Any of the thoughts on Forte? No. You guys covered it very well.

I've got them a little higher than you. I've got them an eight, but I don't like them. So, that's funny. All right, so we're halfway through our running back rankings. And before we get to the bottom 10, we just want to take a couple seconds and talk about our sponsor, HandsomeFancy. If you go to HandsomeFancy.com, use the promo code, Ballers for 15% off your order. There's that promo code again. Ballers. What is Handsome Fancy, Mike? So Handsome Fancy, this is what they know.

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Shady. It's still RB1. Yeah. And he is number six on my board now. Okay. That's not too bad. So are you the one killing it, Mike, for his average? Where do you have, Jason? I imagine. I've got LaShawn at 11. So there you go. I have him at 11. Oh, interesting that he is our consensus 11. Yeah, I guess so. So McCoy is, he's a problem for people. And he might be a problem for fantasy owners this year.

The fact is, Fred Jackson's hurt right now. We know, I think Rex Ryan came out this week, and I don't remember the exact quote, but it was something like we're going to have more running plays in the playbook than any team has ever had in the history of the NFL. Something to that extent. Here's what I know about myself. Maybe I tend to exaggerate and be a little hyperbolic. Me and Rex Ryan are friends in that nature.

I agree. Yeah. We have bravado. He will run 50 times a game. That's no exaggeration. That's what he said. And if you've seen the quarterback play in Buffalo, he might be telling the truth. And this is one of those things where like a very, like, gross offense and then at the end of flower of LaShawn McCoy's fantasy numbers might come out. Yeah. Okay. And that's what I see happening. He's not.

I mean, he's a talented back. We're not just talking about anybody going to Buffalo and getting 50 carries a game, okay? Honestly, if Fred Jackson was getting 50 carries a game at this point, I don't think I would believe the same thing that I do about McCoy. Well, if it was actually 50, yeah. Well, yeah, actually I'd be okay. Here's the problem. The bill's offensive line last year, the running backs averaged less than two yards before contact.

over in Philadelphia. Sean McCoy was getting over three. Trust me. I know their offensive line is different this year. You talked about this on 740 the game. Yeah, yeah. I know incognito's there. Incognito's there. And Rex Ryan, you cannot, I mean, he's going to make a difference to the running game. Yeah, I agree. But just, Shady's a dancer, man. And if he's not getting some, you know, a buffer before contact, he's... I like him. You know what you need to dance?

You need your toes to dance. Oh. He's a little banged up, but he's banged up, but he's banged up with the same thing that was hurting him last year that really affected his game. And that scares me a little bit. Here's the pro and con of Shady in 30 seconds. He's going to get as many carries as anyone in the league. I have him statted out with the most carries of every single person in the league. That's opportunity. That's something you can take to the bank, and you know that he has been great in the past. But...

He is a little bit older. His numbers are trending down. He's got a toe injury. You know, Chris Ivory is going to get a lot of carries. I don't have him ranked high. I've got him pretty high. It's like 25. But my point is, you've got a good opportunity, lots of carries and a little bit downtrending player behind not a great offensive line. Over the last two years, LaShawn McCoy has carried the ball more than any other running back, 622 times. Wow. So he can handle a big workload.

Or he's going to die. Well, we'll see what happens this year. All right, number 12 is a guy that I think we as a consensus ranking probably are in the minority as having him an RB1. I don't know why. Ooh. I don't understand why. You don't know why he's up there or? No, I don't know what. I'm sorry, you're right. Yeah, let me clarify. I don't know why others don't. I mean, Frank Gore is number 12 on our board. He's so old, Andy. Yeah, it's his age. Yeah. Well, 32 years. Old people can't play football. It's ageism.

And we don't have to stand for it. You know what it is? Frank Gore has been underdrafted three consecutive years, and he has outperformed his ADP three consecutive years. He was old three years ago, Andy. I know. I know. Keep singing it. He used his handsome, fancy beard oil, that's for sure. Because he's invigorated. He's at 1,100 or more yards in what, four consecutive seasons? Yep. He doesn't get hurt. Nope. He's on an offense now that instead of seeing eight in the box, he'll see six. Yep.

He catches passes. He's got great hands. And he's got an offense. I mean, do we not buy into running backs on winning teams and good offenses? Yeah, and also ones that might go to the Hall of Fame. Yeah, it's just, you know, pretty good storm there. I mean, the only downside is. I would be willing to hang my fantasy expert chops on Frank Gore this year. You know what? Honestly, Justin Forsett, I have ahead of him, and I love him. These two guys I see kind of hand in hand, but if I had to predict one of those guys to get injured,

this year because of their age and, you know, they're being put into a situation where, you know, the injury is realistic. Justin Fawcett, I could see getting injured. He's a smaller guy. Frank Gore is used to what he, to a workload, to carrying the ball through the middle in the trenches. And so, yeah, I agree with you. You're not going to get disappointed on picking Frank Gore. The backup law firm of Heron, Ballard, Tipton, and Robinson. Right. Sorry.

Now, I just want to make sure I haven't missed anything. As far as I know, Chuck Pagano still has not signed an extension. Am I correct on that? You're correct. So Pagano has turned down extensions. He's on his last year of his contract. He is betting everything on himself and this year for more money. Who was he going to play? Andrew Luck. Yes. At running back. Vic Bauer. Is he going to throw Ballard out there? He's going to throw a rookie? No. He's going to throw that reliable pass catching.