ADP Price Check + Professional Hedging, Dynasty Download - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/29

utter despising of 10th round 11th uh this would be wide receivers odell beckham junior uh he is our consensus wide receiver 27 you know he started his career three straight wide receiver six or better years so they were great he was going into the hall of fame yeah early unbelievable he is now finished outside the top 15 wide receivers in each of the last four years wide receiver 83 16 26

and 85, which is also known as the greatest hits for Jason's arguments. Where do you think he's going right now? What's your guess? I know that there are a lot. There are a lot of great wide receivers going in the fourth round, so he's going to go well behind that. I'm going to go seventh.

That's probably just... Seventh round? I don't know. I wouldn't take him in the seventh. So people are dumb. Sixth, fifth? You are dumb. Yeah, it's probably me, but... He finished a week as the number one wide receiver last year. Yeah. You aren't drafting wide receivers in the seventh round that can do that. Okay. I amend sixth. Sixth round. Final offer. No, you're at the seventh. Sixth. You're wrong. Fifth round? Yeah, he feels like a fifth round to me. So...

The nice thing about Beckham this year is you aren't giving elite ADP price for him. I'm going like 509. The answer is 603. Oh, I was so close with my amended 606. I win. Wide receiver 26. So despite Jason burying him, our consensus ranking has him at 27, which is really close to his average draft position.

Nobody trusts him. I don't, Mike, you wouldn't say you trust Beckham, right? Oh, no. So, but you see more upside from him late than other wide receivers. Yeah, and if, I guess we're playing. Tyler Boyd versus Beckham. Oh, yeah, give me Otto Beckham. T. Higgins versus Beckham. Well, I don't know. Jason, do you want the, you want T. Higgins or O'D Beckham?

The Bengals wide receiver one, as you would call it. So this is, this is an ADP price check show. I would imagine T. Higgins is going far later. Brooks will figure that out for. Yeah, tell me where T. Higgins is going. I would guess he's going at least like ninth round, in which case I would take T. Higgins. I would not draft T. Higgins over O'Dell Beckham. The upside is clearly there with Beckham.

We know he has done it. He has not aged out. He's going to be 29 years old this year, which is fine for a wide receiver, but it's certainly not the prime. You know, wide receivers usually peak around 27, and it's getting younger and younger. So he's on the, you know, the downturn of his career. But that's, it's hard to tell what that arc is based on the last four injury-riddled seasons. It's tough. And he's not, he's not the Beckham of the first three years. What's wild is the ADP he's at now in that sixth round.

Do you know who went there last year at that spot? Odo Beckham? Well, no, probably. Hollywood was around that area. Oof. Stefan Diggs? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yes, of course he was there. Man, that was stupid. Well, yes. In hindsight, yes.

Well, now let's say, let's say he's, that's a deal. Okay, now let's, let's work through Odell Beckham really quick. Did you find Higgins, ADP Brooks? Higgins is just barely after Odell. He's in the sixth round. Whoa. Yeah, because you won't stop talking about him being the Bengals wide receiver one. I will, I haven't really been talking them up that much. You do. Every time you talk to Mar Chase down, you talk to Higgins up. Just by association? Yes. Okay. That's fair.

So with Odell Beckham, let's just have a realistic outlook here, okay? All right. Let's assume that he is not in the absolute peak prime of his career because he's going to be 29 years old and he's coming off of, you know, a couple years of injury, but that he is healthy all year. Plays a full slate. Do you think that he is a top 15 wide receiver in the run heavy Brown's offense? I do not. If he plays 17, I still do not.

Probably not. Yeah, I lean probably not, but I can see that happening. You have weeks one through five. So you have five games here. In that time span, he was averaging almost eight targets a game. Now, I guess you can say he didn't do much with him. He had a couple strong finishes, wide receiver 15 in week two, wide receiver one in week four. But we also saw over the second half.

Baker Mayfield become more comfortable with this new offense from Stefansky. It's hard because even if, let's say Julio was in Cleveland, he just landed, right? And he's there one. Like, we're not going to be overly enthusiastic about Julio in that offense with that team. Yeah, it's a lower volume. But my point is, like, Baker has been through it.

where he's had to run a new system basically every year of his career. And now you have some actual continuity with. Continuity. Is that not a word now? No, that's not it. Continuity, you idiot. Continuity, that's what it is. Dang it. Ah, yeah. He has some contiguosity moving into the next year of his career. So I don't know. I'm leaving room for. Boom, Shakalaka. Thank you. Thank you, Jason, for talking on.

I agree with you. You should leave some room for it to happen. I agree with you. Baker got better the second half of last year. My only contention. And the reality is. And he didn't get better because Odo Becker was out of the lineup. Oh, wait, wait. Odo Becker missed that part of the year? That is the stupidest argument. It's happened every time, though. He spreads the ball around. He doesn't feel this pressure. There are plenty of examples of diva wide receivers being bad for a team. I think this is one of those examples.

That's where I mean, it is narrativey. And we like to be more stats driven and more analytics focused. And so I get that. My argument is based more on, you know, the history of injuries and the fact that outside of Eli Manning, he's never really done what we've hoped. But that is a narrative that has existed before, where a diva wide receiver has not necessarily been good for a quarterback.

All right, let's talk about Chase Edmonds running back for the Arizona Cardinals because wide range of opinions. I don't know if you guys saw this. He doesn't even have a proper face scan in Madden right now, Chase Edmonds. I did see that. Oh, why are they doing him dirty like that? I know. Get him into Madden if he's got the potential to, you know, be a top-tier runner this year. That's nonsense. But what do you think the ADP is of Chase Edmonds? Because I think us being out here in the Valley.

We have a different perspective on how the team might utilize them. I think outside of the valley, it's a very mathematical equation for people where David Johnson, he left and Kenyon Drake left, and now the next man up is Chase Edmonds. So, you know, when have you ever heard of Chase Edmonds? Oh, well, you heard of him when he scored three times against the Giants. Or you heard about these boom games that made headlines for fantasy, but maybe you're not watching him week in and week out.

Very smart, talented player, 25 years old, 5, 9, 210. I believe he doesn't have a goal on carry in the NFL. Well, he has one carry inside the five in three years. So where do you think he's going? Because I think... Too high. Too high is the answer. I think they view him as somebody with like an upside that is unknown. So the ambit, you know, maybe like somebody viewed Gibson last year or something. I feel pretty confident about who the fourth round running backs are.

So I'm going to go after that. I'll go fifth round because he's still got perceived upside. I think he's a late, third, early fourth. Oh, ooh. I was with Jason. I don't think he's, he made his way out of that fourth round running back dead zone, I believe. I think he's in the fifth round. So whatever, that'll be my answer for the ADP, and I'll say like 504. So if he's 504, that's too high for you? I'll go 405. Oh, ho.

5.01, blue jeans. 510. Okay. I was dyslexic. That's RB 25. 510 is not too bad. No, it isn't. Because again, have we done some work here? Leaving room. Chase Edmonds could be the guy. I just do not see it projecting out that way with how the team has appreciated him in that auxiliary role. His.

just the composition of his body compared to James Connor, who is a bigger bruising type of running back. Now, okay, if James Connor is awful, though, if he's done. But I don't think he's, I don't think James Connor, looking at James Connor last year, I don't think he was done. He just got hurt a lot. He was on, he has a ticket to get off on Duntown here very soon. I mean, if you're looking at the Steelers' offensive line in their offense, and you were saying, like,

how disappointed you were with that. Connor had success regardless of those things. Yeah, he had some success because that team facilitates those opportunities for him and he was their only player. But I think when you watch him play, this is not the same player from two and a half years ago when he filled in for Lev Bell. He doesn't have the exact same quickness. I don't know how much of the passing game work he's going to. Like this is not.

Pumping the brakes on Chase Edmonds to me is not a pro James Connor take. It is a reality that they're going to use both players and that will cap the upside. Yeah, I view this. Whoa. You all right? I'm back. It will be a split backfield for sure. And the upside is with Chase Edmonds because of the injury history for James Connor. If you want to draft Chase Edmonds hoping that he becomes de facto guy,

when Connor inevitably misses four or five games, then that's one thing you can try to hope for. But I don't believe Chase Edmonds will ever receive the guy role on his own. They're a great offense. You don't have to be the only guy in Arizona to contribute.

Kenyon Drake got a ton of work. Chase Edmunds still finishes the top 24 running back seven times in 16 weeks last year with Kenyon Drake. Yeah. It's big plays. I'd certainly rather have Chase Edmonds than James Connor. No question. Don't care about the goal line. Like I'd much rather have...

I mean, multiple top 10 weeks last year for Chase Edmonds, just being a, I mean, he had a top 10 week with three attempts. He had a top 10 week with five attempts. Yeah, but you're not, but the thing is, is because of that, you're not playing him in those weeks. You can, in best ball, that's fine. I think you'll be able to play him as a flex every week of the year. No questions asked.

On this offense. If that is true, then you think 510 is fine. 5.10 is great because you have the injury upside with James Connor and you have a flex-worthy starter every week. I don't think you're going to feel comfortable flexing him every week. And I would rather have James Connor. He's going a bit later. Not too much later, I believe, than Chase Edmonds. And, Jay, to your point, it was a split backfield last year.

Kenyon Drake saw 54% of the snaps. Chase Edmund's 47%. That was already a split backfield in terms of playing time. But Kenyon Drake was the power runner. He was the power guy. And I think that's what James Connor is. And now you have the upgrades that the Arizona Cardinals have made to their offensive lines, specifically getting Rodney Hudson in here to play center. Those goal line up the middle carries? They're going to work now. Where does Cliff want to run?

Right up the middle. Right up the middle. And it's going to work out much. It's going to help Chase doing the same thing. They're not going to not run Chase interior at all. But goal line will go to, I believe goal line's going to go to Connor. Well, you said it was a split backfield last year. Chase finished at the position. So I think Kenyon Drake has more, had more in the tank last year than Chase.

Do we know how far apart these guys are in ADP? Brooks, can you pull up? It's got to be pretty massive. Right now, I can give you that. I was showing Connor in the eighth. Oh, I would rather have Connor in the eighth than spending a fifth. The fifth round is chock full of great wide receivers. Yeah, he's at 5'10. I would take Chase in the upside there because he's 25 and he's a good player. So I'm, you know, I still think that we're all three lower on Chase than some others are.