The 2022 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/18

And you're right on it being Sutton, not Judy, which it used to be Sutton, not Judy, not Tim Patrick and some other options. Like he's going to have a top 12 guy. He doesn't generally have two of them. But he's got, he could. He could this year because he's got those weapons consolidated now with the Patrick injury. No, I mean, in the beginning of the off season, I was much more hesitant about Cortland Sutton before camp, before the Patrick injury. He should be a value in your drafts. with tremendous upside week to week. Sometimes fantasy football is easier than we want to give credit for, which is what both of you two have just done. What's a good wide receiver who's had bad quarterbacks and now gets a great quarterback? Right.

Draft those guys. Those guys are going to be better than expectation because you just haven't seen it yet. And the reverse is always true every year. It's one of those tips we always leave the season going, man, I got to remember how important that quarterback play is for wide receivers. Well, you're doing it now. Good job, fellas. My second my guy. Well, he's powerful. Yeah, he is. He's mighty. And he's going to be on the field a bunch. We're talking about A.J. Dillon. Aaron Jones was one of the more predicted my guys on Twitter. People thought I'd go with Aaron Jones because I think if Jason doesn't get him, I've been taking him in mock drafts. I love Aaron Jones. But Aaron Jones, to me, he's the name brand, right? You pay the premium for Aaron Jones. I love me some Aaron Jones. I love the name brand. He's the boxed cereal. Yeah, but AJ Dillon, he's the Kirkland Costco bulk buy in more ways than one.

And not only do you get more of it, but it might just taste better than the name brand on certain weeks. And you get a, I mean, you get like a pallet of A.J. Dylan. They have to bring him out onto the field in a pallet is what I'm saying. It's a forklift to get him out there. Look, A.J. Dylan is just a force. And I think what I, step one is reminding people how many opportunities he had last year. This was something that. You know, they split work between these two guys. They had exactly six goal line carries each in 2021. They both had over 220 touches. Aaron Rogers just recently came out and said, look, we have to have our best 11 players out on the field. And those two guys, speaking of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are two of the best 11. And he's not just an early down back. That's another misconception. Sometimes when you see the big-bodied quadricep monster, you think early down, he had 34 receptions.

And Aaron Rogers, unlike other quarterbacks in football, he takes what's given to him. He takes the easy play, and a lot of the time that means passing and checking down to the running backs, a position that often benefits from targets that depart, like Devante Adams leaving. Dylan averaged more yards per touch last year than D'Andre Swift, then Giovante Williams, then Joe Mixing. So. AJ Dylan is the value in the backfield over the last decade when running back teammates see 200 touches each. They always all end up in the top 24 100% of the time. He's going to get more than 200 touches. Guess where he's being drafted? The RB 25. Basically where he was drafted last year, it makes no sense. He's being drafted where he was last year despite finishing inside the top 24.

You're getting them out of his floor. The upside is tremendous. And the second running back in those groups always outperforms ADP. I just think AJ Dylan is going to be an absolute monster. And guess what else you get? Oh, you get massive, massive single game upside. Yeah, and what if Aaron Jones goes down? Exactly. It's not like he hasn't been injured in his career. And when he's out, AJ Dylan is the show in Green Bay. He's not viewed as that yet in fantasy. So he's my second, my guy. I love it. I love it. I'm in on AJ Dillon. Them quads made for stomping. You're right. All right. I'm also going to talk about a running back now. This was my, this was guests several times, but rarely. This was more rarely guests. And I didn't realize it until I was just doing a Chase Edmund's search, the correct guess for my three.

Chase Edmonds is by my guy. What a reveal. Oh my gosh. That was amazing. That was great. You almost said, I just gave it away. Chase Edmonds running back for the Miami Dolphins is the player that I love. I was in the middle of doing a Chase Edmund's search just to see if there was any more of the outrageous number of camp reports that are great. And I saw that it was actually phase scissors who had the. Correct guess of my three my guys. So shout out. You did well. Look, this is a guy that's being left for dead. He's not drafted in the first two rounds. He's not drafted even in the running back dead zone rounds three through seven. He is an eighth rounder right now being drafted as the running back 35. And there are only 32 teams in the NFL. And I looked at my underdog leagues and I wanted to see who am I drafting? Like I want to put my money where my mouth is. And Chase Edmonds is my third highest rostered.

running back. He is someone that I believe in, and I think it's important to follow the money, not just in my leagues, but follow the money of the NFL. He is the perfect fit for the Miami zone blocking scheme with Mike Daniel and the San Francisco system. And he was the first running back signed in free agency this off season. They prioritize them, but so did a lot of teams. Buffalo desperately wanted him and he said no. Houston reportedly offered him the most money. He said no. He wanted to go where he could prove himself and earn another contract in addition to the two-year $12 million dollar contract that currently makes him the 12th highest cap hit in the league for running backs. And for reference, where he mostered?

Sony Michelle, who were also signed by them this year, 37th and 41st. So the money that the dolphins are investing is in Chase Edmonds. And the reason is because of the system. Here's a tweet from June, from Connor Allen NFL, where he highlights that the 49ers used zone blocking 282 times last season, the sixth most in the NFL. Chase Edmonds on zone blocking last season. His EPA per play? Number one in the league. His yards per attempt, 5.8, number one in the league in that system. Edmonds said, I wanted to play for Coach McDaniel because of the outside zone scheme. This is not lost on Chase Edmonds. He literally quote tweeted that tweet back in June and said, yeah, this guy gets it. This system is perfect for Chase Edmonds. He is a pass catcher with good athleticism going in the eighth round. Now, I have Chase.

Statted out for only 188 carries and 52 receptions. Very achievable numbers, averaging 14 touches per game. Over the last five years, the worst fantasy finish for any running back to hit those marks was the Jets version of Levion Bell, who finished as the running back 22, and he's being drafted as the running back 35. And you might hear all this, and you say, look, that's great, Jason. Everything you said is well thought out, and your voice is like... butter and right your face shines like the morning's sun and and and i love you but what is his ceiling that you know that might be what you say back to me and i say look over the last two years among qualifying running backs chase edmonds is sixth in fantasy points per touch

The only guys who score more fantasy points at a PPR league than Chase Edmonds when they touch the ball is Leonard Fournett, Aaron Jones, Dandre Swift, Alvin Camara, and Austin Eccler. On a per touch basis, he's really, really great. Last year, the first eight weeks of the season, he was the running back 16 already. You forget it because James Connor was good. And the thing about this is a lot of times you have efficient backs and you go, well, if they get the volume. They don't really come through for fantasy. I would have said that maybe out loud with my words. But it is the opposite of what has happened with Chase Edmonds in his career. In the games where he gets 12 opportunities or more, he has averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game. Last year, that would have been the running back 12 ahead of Aaron Jones, ahead of D'Andre Swift. He's being paid like the starter. The quotes out of camp are saying...

He, you know, the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson said, what's become clear through two weeks of camp is that Chase Edmund looks poised to become the Dolphins lead running back. He's perfect for the system, paid well, talented in the past, and he's in the eighth round. Yes. Grab him there. He's my guy that I am happy to invest my money in. All right, Mike, you are up with. All right, I got a guy number two. I got a value wide receiver here going on Sleeper. in the ninth round as the wide receiver 48. And I want to talk about the Lazard King, Alan Lazard, of the Green Bay Packers. Here's where you have to start the story. Devante Adams, the elite number one wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. He has been traded away over the off season. There is a need. There is a hole for the offense of the Green Bay Packers. In comes Alan Lazard.

He's 6'5, almost 230 pounds. So he's gigantic on the field. And he is athletic for that size. This isn't just a lumbering fella out there. Last year, over the final five games, he scored five touchdowns and finished in the top 24 wide receivers at the position, four of five weeks on a 16% target share because Devante Adams was still there. Back in 2020, I know that's a little bit further ago. Alan Lazard was actually starting the season quite hot, but an injury derailed essentially the whole season after three weeks. Rogers and Lizard, they already have chemistry. Last year, the sixth highest quarterback rating when targeted in the NFL, Al-Azard from Aaron Rogers, the fifth most fantasy points per target. Alan Lazard has a 10.2 average yards per attempt.

on 151 career targets from Aaron Rogers. That is Rogers' second best rate of any wide receiver trailing only Jordy Nelson. When he targets Alan Lazzard, he gets yards. What is the competition for Alan Lazzard this year? Well, I mean, you have Randall Cobb, who's a bit older, the old Lizard King, Sammy Watkins, and then the people, the guys that the fantasy community is excited about. The rookies. Christian Watson, they traded up in the second round to go get him. Romeo Dobbs been the talk of training camp. But historically, Rogers just does not target his rookie wide receivers, even the top names. By the way, let me just jump in for two seconds. The thought that Aaron Rogers is now happy with life and not going to grimace the bunch was immediately shut down by him ranting and raving against the rookie wide receivers. Yeah, he just put him on blast like yesterday.

Thank you. Exactly. So even the guys that turned great. Devante Adams, 38 receptions. Jordy Nelson, 33 receptions. The actual target leader for a rookie for Aaron Rogers was Marquis Valdez Scantling, who was now gone. 40% of the targets with Devante Adams and MVS, 40% of last year targets, gone. And now look at Alan Lazard. And these stats are from good friend of the show, Curtis Patrick. He just, he happened to be tweeting about this yesterday. I was like, this is juicy. In Rogers 14 years as a starter, his yearly wide receiver 1 has averaged a nearly 27% target share. In 12 of those 14 years, the wide receiver 1 posted at least 24%. And the lowest mark ever for a wide receiver 1 for Aaron Rogers was 2012 Randall Cobb at 21%. 21%.

for the wide receiver one. You lock in 21% of Rogers targets for Alan Lazard. And it's like, well, is he the wide receiver one? Here's a quote from Aaron Rogers. Yeah, this is a good quote. Listen up. Quote, obviously, Alan Lazard is going to step into the number one role. And I think it's going to be a very seamless transition for him. Aaron Rogers. For years has loved Alan Lazard. You've had Devante Adams there to be a true number one. Lazard has the opportunity. He has the faith of his quarterback. The target share historically is there. And Alan Lizard is going in the ninth round. Like, just think about a perceived wide receiver one for any team going in the ninth round. You're, you're, you're.

You're going to be excited for that value, even if it's a crap team. Like, that's the number one target for that team. And it's Aaron Rogers number one guy. Let me amplify momentarily here, Mike. Please do. The final 10 games of last year, you might have seen a little bit of a glimpse of that trust. Because despite Devante Adams being there, and he only had, I think Lazard had like 60 targets on the year or something. Or, sorry, 60 receptions. But. 13.6 touchdown pace over the last 10 games last year. So you're looking at Alan Lizard with that body and that size, and you're saying, let me have some touchdowns, please. That's his upside. Yeah, I was right. 60 targets, 40 receptions last year. It's interesting. And he's, you know, Rogers' own words matter here. Yes, they do. And the way it shakes out, look, if Watson had come into camp and been healthy and, you know, Sammy Watkins was.

you know, the narrative was different, but right now the narrative's like, Rogers wants this 11 best on the field, Lazard's the guy he trusts. Yeah, I will say that if, you know, if this was a guy that was going in the fourth or fifth round, I would be very hesitant because I think he's going to find the NFL a much more difficult place without Devante Adams on the field and having the coverage be easier as a more possession type of target. But he doesn't cost you much. And the ninth round, the upside to have 20% of Aaron Rogers' targets is too good to pass up. So I am happy to report. I just checked. He's my fourth highest rostered wide receiver. So I'm in with you. All right. My final my guy to be revealed right now. You should just leak it out, man. Just accidentally say the name. I was doing a bunch of Google searches for this guy. Who? Who? All right. My final my guy is Mike.

Williams wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers being deliciously drafted in the fifth round. This is one of the league's most explosive targets with one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in a division that is going to be filled with fireworks. We remember the story last year. We know the upside because you saw it with your eyeballs over the first five weeks of the year when he was the number one wide receiver in fantasy football. He finished at 10 on the year, despite missing a game and despite dealing with some practice injuries that, you know, he kind of found his way under the field. We didn't get a lot of disclosure on what he was dealing with, but things changed in the middle of the year. Well, this is the wide receiver that finished at 10 was number one for the first five weeks and is being drafted as the wide receiver 19 right now. What does the team think about him? Jason just made a compelling money-related argument for Chase Edmins.

You have a $3 million deal with $40 million guaranteed to continue to be the most explosive and physical target for Justin Herbert, who we all adore and love. You're in an up-tempo offense. You've got a quarterback that's going to throw 40 passing touchdowns, and you have a receiver that you look at what beat reporters are saying about him in camp. This is a Mike Williams is a complete wide receiver camp. It's not just down the field, deep ball specialist. intermediate route running, which we saw last season. You know, you look at last year his average depth of target previously. He was that deep ball guy before last year, 15.8. Last year it was down at 10.8. They integrated him into the offense as a core piece. And we know in fantasy, we want to inject some volatility into our lineups. We want some high-end outcomes. You want to win a week because Mike Williams went out there and scored three times or put up 204 yards and two touchdowns.

He is the perfect middle round embracing of that volatility with high-end upside. And what if I told you, hey, it's not as good as it can get with what we got from Mike Williams last year. It could be a lot better. He is the kind of wide receiver that belongs in double-digit Mike Evans' perennial every year category. He was 10th among wide receivers and expected points in the red zone, but yet finished at 24th and fantasy points in the red zone. So he was supposed to score a lot more fantasy points in the red zone and didn't do it. He only secured four of 14 in zone targets, which can be a very variable number there. It's big. We saw that happen to Mike Evans. Absolutely. The targets were there. Just something was off that year. And he didn't come through like his rookie year. Yeah. Mike Williams has top five finish potential in his range of outcomes.

He could put up a season like last year but end up at 14 touchdowns instead of nine. And he would be in that top five range. So I think he can be a wide receiver one that you get in the fifth round. And that's why he's in my guy. Yeah, we've all loved the value of Mike Williams in the fifth round. It's part of, Andy, you've brought up many times your strategy of getting running backs early because you just love these guys like this in the fifth. I'm going to go with a wide receiver. who's going even later, the man, the myth, the legend. Yeah, seriously. Gabriel Davis. Oh, my goodness. Now look, the bills are... The bills are currently the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. This is a great team with a great offense. And yet...

They lost their number two target in the offense with 114 targets. Oh, and they lost their number three target in the offense with 84 targets. There are 198 missing targets, and they didn't even try to go after some big free agent or spend high draft capital on a rookie wide receiver. Why? Because the answer was already on the team. The Archangel Gabriel Davis. Oh, my goodness. This is what we're doing? The bills. knew this last year. This wasn't something they figured out once their free agents left. They knew this midseason. The first eight weeks of last year, we remember how good Emmanuel Sanders was. He was great for fantasy. He was winning people DFS tournaments. He was averaging 83.5% of the snaps, including three games with 90% snap share. Like he was an every down receiving down player. Meanwhile, Gabe Davis during that time was seeing 35% of the snaps wasn't really involved. But then a change happened after week nine.

And Emmanuel Sanders started to take a back seat. He never cracked 80% again. He averaged 60% of the snaps the rest of the way, while Gabriel Davis averaged 66% of the snaps. There was a change in this offense that allowed Gabriel Davis to step forward and get seen. Like, is this the dude going forward? It gets better. In four games without Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis was 87.7% of the snaps. There's no one on this roster that can play the big body downfield type. That's Gabe Davis's role 100%. He's going to be a nearly every down, receiving down player. But the most important games of their season, when it mattered to the bills the most, was in the playoffs. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Gabe Davis were active, were healthy.

and there to play, and Emmanuel Sanders played 36% of the snaps. Gabriel Davis played 77% of the snaps, and he dominated in the playoffs. He got the early, you know, work in the end zone, got a touchdown against the Patriots, then they blew them out, was unneeded the rest of the game, and then in one of the greatest games of all time, if you don't remember, Gabriel Davis had eight receptions for 201 yards and 5. four touchdowns against the chiefs. Oh, yes. You don't need to trust me and my belief in Gabriel Davis, but you should trust the bills because they trust Gabe Davis. But don't just minimize the postseason performance. Oh, he just, it's all on that playoff performance. It's not. Gabriel Davis has only been in the league two years. He has barely been a starter. And in regular season games, he has 13 receiving touchdowns.

only behind Justin Jefferson from that draft class. That's more than C.D. Lamb, more than T. Higgins, and he's barely been a starter. He is a true touchdown threat because in the end zone, that's the guy that Josh Allen looks for. Over the last two years, Gabriel Davis has 23 end zone targets. That is more than Devante Adams or Cooper Cup. I mean, that is outrageous. When Gabriel Davis played without Emmanuel Sanders, he was on target for 132 targets and 13 touchdowns. That was his pace. He doesn't have Emmanuel Sanders. And if you look at where these guys or where Gabriel Davis is being drafted, right now in your home leagues on Sleeper, he is in the middle of the seventh round. He is the wide receiver 34 being drafted. Look at what the pros are doing. In the high stakes money league on FFPC, the main event.

In the main event, his ADP is in the middle of the fourth round as a wide receiver two. He should not be in the seventh, but he is. Grab him every single time. I would say in the sixth round, I am happy to take him there too. He will not pass the seventh round ever. I don't care who else is on the board. If I'm in a league in the seventh round, he's on my roster. All right, ladies and gentlemen, if you were following the show, last week or it was in the last couple weeks. There was an absolute tragedy. A travesty occurred on this show. We were talking about our top 10 wide receivers and this guy cracked in there. And then I was blindsided when my colleague decided that he was trying to claim that there's some adultery. He tried to claim that, well, I'm the mayor now, but you are not the mayor, Jason.

I am the mayor of Pity City. Best friends forever. You took the graphic back. That's my graphic. We're going again. That's my graphic, baby. Ridiculous. We're back. Michael Pittman of the Indianapolis Colts. He is my final, my guy. And this one, the ADP is tough for Michael Pittman because you are drafting him saying he is absolutely doing it this year. Being drafted as the wide receiver 13 on Sleeper, wide receiver 12 over on underdog. Here's what we know. Last year was a breakout for Michael Pittman, drafted as the wide receiver 45, finished in the top 15. He became one of seven second year wide receivers since 2010 to put up a line of 85, 106. Those names who put up Hughes production in their second year, AJ Green.

Alshon Jeffrey, Josh Gordon, Odell Beckham, Juju, Justin Jefferson, and Michael Pittman. Over the last decade, players drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, if they're going into that third year and they see 120 plus targets, they finish as the wide receiver 10 on average. So even though that ADP feels scary like you're drafting him at his ceiling. I do not think you are because you have the transition of Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan. And you're like, well, Carson Wentz's numbers at the end of the season look pretty good. Three more touchdowns than Matt Ryan. But they actually, they're hollow stats where you look at Matt Ryan versus Carson Wentz in every area of when you start breaking things down, like clean pocket, pressure in his face. Like Matt Ryan is a more accurate quarterback.

Of the 129 targets that Michael Pittman saw last year, only 99 of them were deemed catchable. That's 77%. That's 44th at the wide receiver position. Michael Pittman was not getting quality graphics or quality targets from Carson Wentz. And now you get Matt Ryan, who look at historically, just like the argument for Cortland Sutton of. that Russell Wilson has QB ones, or wide receiver ones. I'm falling apart, ladies and gentlemen. I'm so excited. We're hitting it. Matt Ryan, and you think, well, it's all Julio Jones, but it's not. Roddy White was an absolute electric star for fantasy football, finishing as the wide receiver 4, 7, 1, 6. Then both...

Roddy and Julio Jones finished as top 12 guys. Then Julio went on his tear. And then Calvin Ridley went on a tear there for a short amount of time before we unfortunately lost him to the NFL. Last year, it was a bunch of debronies. Matt Ryan had nothing to work with with the Atlanta Falcons. I believe Michael Pittman is an elite wide receiver. You get an accurate quarterback. And now you have Frank Reich himself, the head coach talking about we can't just be a ground and pound team. We got to be able to keep up. with the big dogs when it comes to the passing attack. That's why they went and got Matt Ryan. It's definitely why they got rid of Carson Wentz. I am pushing the chips. I'm all in on Michael Pittman. Well, I'm glad you like my guy, Mike. No, I mean, yeah. Obviously, I love him. I think Michael Pittman is the dude. Like, he is that dude. He is that dude that's just going to go out there and fight a DB for the ball and then.