Fantasy Wildcards + Buy or Sell, Turd in the Third - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/10

For the Eagles, he could be their best pass catcher. And he could legitimately be their number one target this season. He could out target Devante Smith and Jalen Rager. He could be the go-to guy. That is within the range of outcomes. He could be, you know, the third target in this offense. Obviously, we expect a slightly smaller passing pie with Jalen Hertz as the quarterback because if he's going to rush...

for a thousand yards, he's not going to throw for 4,500 yards. You know, we see that with Lamar Jackson. That being said, the defense of the Eagles are nowhere near as good as the defense of the Ravens, and the rushing ability of Hertz is not as good as Lamar Jackson. You also have the fact that he's going to, for the first time as a season, we expect, be without Zach Ertz. And we've got, you know, four games without Zach Ertz where...

more PPR points, more receptions, more yards, more touchdowns per game. It just makes sense. If he's the main tight end and Zackertz is not there, you're going to get more targets, more yards. And he's coming into the phase of your career going into year four as a tight end where he could really take that step forward. And if you want a perfect example of his...

range of outcomes, how he could be great and how he could be bad, you can look at the two games that he had with Jalen Hertz last year. So Jalen Hertz played four, and in the third game, Dallas Goddard got injured left halfway through and then didn't play in the fourth. Those first two games that he played with Hertz, he led the team in both games in targets. And in both of those games, Zachertz was still playing. But Dallas Goddard with Jalen Hertz was the number one target in the team.

His fantasy finished those weeks. I'd say it meant nothing. Were tight end 20 and tight end 25. I've seen enough. I've seen enough Dallas Goddard over the past three years to know what he isn't. And I don't think he can be their number one target. I don't think he could be a PPR tight end in this league. So you and I disagree. If I had to put my chips, I think we ranked him the same. Well, I mean, when you rank these guys and you're putting, I think you're putting that.

that median. You're taking those median most probable outcomes. And I think he will be, you know, he could be a Mike Gassicki from last year where it's like, it's okay. He's better than you kind of expected and was fine for fantasy, but he didn't take that breakout leap. I do think that, I mean, obviously I've been saying that I think Jalen Hertz is going to be able to move the ball more and throw for enough touchdowns to make this passing game relevant. If that's the case.

then Dallas Goddard will be great for tight end. But as I just outlined, I mean, if he's not catching the touchdowns, and Jalen Hertz isn't throwing touchdowns to him, he could just be a completely worthless tight end. Yeah. I mean, I think that we've seen a lot of Dallas Goddard, and he's not going to be a yardage guy. He's going to be a touchdown guy, which tells me that he's probably not got a chance of being the number one target on that team. We haven't seen like one 100-yard game in four years. We haven't seen enough of him.

without Zach Gertz to make that call, to me. And one of Dallas Goddard's best attributes is that he is, in fact, not Zach Gertz. If you're, my point is simply this. Most players that have an elite skill set in a certain area.

Whether or not Zach Ertz was there, you would see it manifest more than one time in four years in three complete seasons. You would see some of that athletic. He's a good, solid tight-in. There's no, look, we rank him the same because we see him the same on fantasy output. We're disagreeing on the range of outcomes. I don't think Dallas Goddard has the ability to demand that much of the offense. Like, I would bet DeVant to Smith has, you know.

pushes for twice the targets that Dallas Goddard ends up with this year. I mean, he put up 524 yards in 11 appearances, and he was knocked out of a couple. So, I mean, if you're giving him, like, just say that's about 10 games. 524 yards of 10 games is not shabby at all for a tight end. He's not a bad yardage guy. I mean, the 100-yard baseline for a tight end is.

That's a bar too high to be like... It's not a baseline. It's a ceiling. It's a Kittle. I'm saying that you brought that up as he's only done it once. I brought it up as his ceiling. Yeah, but I mean, that's a very, very high bar to say... I mean, he had so many games as 70 plus yards. That's great for a tight end. Sure. Yeah. We haven't ranked the same. There you go. Well, you think that he can become George Kittle?

I think he cannot become George Kittler. I don't think that. But I do think he could break into where he is an every week plug and play starter that is fairly consistent. All right. I guess I'm up. Yep. My second wild card is Dallas Goddard. No, no, it isn't. It's C.D. Lamb. And I think this one is like for a lot of people.

What is C.D. Liam going to be this upcoming year? I think the problem is that he is not a wild card for a lot of people. Is that the case? I think that they're, they've already cashed in those tickets, and they're already celebrating the breakout of C.D. Lamb. Well, I mean, there are reasons for that, right? Yes. You didn't get to see him with DAC very much last year, yet he still had 111 target. It still had 935 yards as a rookie, five touchdowns, his pace with Dak.

was 93 for 1385 and 6 as a rookie. So there's the... That was in Dax. Weeks 1 through 5. When Dack was going to be on pace for 7,000 yards or something. Now, what's interesting about him that makes him a wild card is just how much of a center of their offense he's going to be and how much time does he get in the slot versus being used in other places. Last year, second most slot snaps in football, second most slot reception, slot yards.

Mike mentioned earlier in the offseason is it dangerous to fall in love with slot wide receivers? You know, there's a lot of talk right now about how good Michael Gallup looks around camp. Have you seen that? I was going to say. Getting snaps in the slot. Yes, that was the, that is a new report is that they're moving people around, which they should be doing. There's no reason right now to think that CD Lam is a better wide receiver than Michael Gallup is, in my opinion.

I don't think that there's a reason we should look at that and say C.D. Lamb's a better white out other than, hey, draft capital and excitement, right? Because Michael Gallup has gone up. He's put up prolific games, has a great report with that, Prescott, plays on the outside. There is a world. Like, maybe the odds aren't super high, but there's definitely a world where Michael Gallup is a better fantasy output on the year than C.D. Lamb does. It's small, but it exists. But then you look at the first season, and he's one of only seven.

rookie wide receivers ever with 70 plus receptions, 900 receiving yards over the last decade, more of a game breaker in the intermediate realm. So I have him at 20 on the year. It's a fourth round ADP right now, late 4th. He's just a wild card because what will happen is his draft capital. I'm worried that it's going to be like six weeks of guaranteed locking him into place even if things aren't going right. Does that make sense? So you draft him?

to be something you have up in your head as a fantasy player. And then how many weeks will it take for you to adjust to not having him in your lineup if he's not what you have up here? Because he wasn't startable each and every week last year. And there's a wide range of outcomes for him. And that's one of the biggest mistakes and most difficult things to do in fantasy. I mean, if you looked at last year, even though those were prolific numbers for a rookie, you were happy.

six to eight times on 16 weeks. So will he take a step forward probably with Dak? But it's really hard for fantasy players to make an adjustment from what you just said. Like you've already cashed the ticket. So you might start him. It was almost like how people treated Beckham. Like there was a point in the past few years where you probably needed to get Beckham out of your lineup. But it was impossible.

I know, having him on my team, because you were waiting for what you thought he was versus what he is. And there's a world where C.D. Lamb is absolutely the third highest fantasy scoring wide receiver on this team. I love C.D. Lamb. I think C.D. Lamb is phenomenal, and he has a great season. But for him to be being drafted right now, two wide receiver spots behind Amari Cooper, that's just, that's crazy to me. He's a slot wide receiver.

who is going to be the number two guy behind Amari Cooper. So, yeah, I mean, I think Gallup 99th percentile speed score above C.D. Lamb, still a high draft pick. I just think they like him a lot. And I like him. I think Gallup's super talented. I think Mike is right in the sense that C.D. Lamb does not feel like a wild card to most people. C.D. Lam is a top 15 wide receiver. If you draft them, you just have one. And he could be certainly.

But that is not a game. He is a wild card. And going into his second year, I think the range of outcomes wider than most people are drafting him to be. Mike, you're up. All right. Let's talk about a running back who we probably don't want to talk about. But it has to happen. Old man, David Johnson. David Johnson.

Once the shining superstar of the Arizona Cardinals, once the shining superstar of your fantasy football teams. And last year, running back 19, he missed four games. He missed a partial of two others. And the truth about David Johnson last year, when he was on the field, he was good. He was good for your fantasy team. In non-injury games, he only busted one time.

One time. He was very, very solid. Yeah, he's not breaking down the walls for your fantasy victories, but he was certainly contributing to it. And people don't want to draft David Johnson. I don't really want to draft David Johnson. When I saw him in my first run in my rankings, I said, that's not possible, is it? And then you compare it to what he did last year? It's like, okay, it's not that far off of what he did last year. But again,

He is older. And the team, it's a bit of a mess right now in Houston. Is that going to turn into more dump-offs for David Johnson? We saw that he still had that. We had a vintage David Johnson game of 11 for 106 through the air last year. Running backs with at least 30 receptions last year. David Johnson had the highest yards per reception of that group. Like he still has it.

in the past catching game. Let me ask you this, Mike, when you look at him as a wild card. Is James Robinson's season last year a bit of an example of what you could have on a bad Houston team? Because, I mean, Jacksonville was awful, but you do have really limited weapons. We've talked about that. Right. If you lose your quarterback, Watson's not out there. And you lost Fuller. And you're talking about, well, we just got to figure this out. We're going to be down in games. Like James Robinson did a lot in the passing game.

on a bad team, had touchdown opportunities. I would say Houston's going to push for that Jacksonville record. Yes, they are. I would say that the age and the wear and tear on David Johnson's body, he would, he's not going to hold up to what James Robinson did. And then you have, you have to factor in the, that Houston is just collecting running backs for whatever. I don't know what they're doing. Do you know how stupid we are? For what?

But yeah, I mean, yes, I do. But why this time? Just because I'm laughing because like four or five times in this talk, we're obviously talking in the fantasy realm. But we're like, old man, David Johnson. Oh, yeah, yeah. Dude, he's 29 years old. And I've sat next to this gentleman. And we're calling him old man. And he is a superhuman. I'm sorry, David. I love you. Yeah. Old for.

fantasy football old for the NFL. Set the Walker aside, get out of there on the field. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. And who is the quarterback for the Houston Texans? Is it Deshaun Watson? He's got his situation going on off the field. He doesn't seem to want to be on the Houston Texans. I think he said he wants to play. He'd like to play for Denver, right? He's okay with that? He's okay. I'm cool playing anywhere, really.

Look, I'm cool playing for a team that has really good wide receivers, a great defense, a pretty solid offensive. Of course, he wants to go to Denver. Get out of here, Deshawn. But is it Tyrod Taylor? When Taylor comes in, targets to the running back seem to go away. Is it Davis Mills, who was a third round pick, but technically was the first pick of the Houston, Texas this year. And we saw for Davis Mills last year, Austin Jones, the lead running back for Stanford.