Fantasy Wildcards + Buy or Sell, Turd in the Third - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/10

battle right now, a battle of wills. Curtis Samuel, groin injury. You can hit the hype train for this. Yes, please do. Sean McVeigh touting Cam Acres versatility entering the second season. Cam Acres said he's obviously a great runner. He's got the ability as a pass catcher coming from the backfield, and we can displace him and put him out in the slot or other receiver locations. No limitations. We'll see how it comes to life.

Yeah, I mean, if you're looking at our rankings, Cam Acres is, is, you're in. Astronomically high on, I'm terrified. This isn't one of those, like a lot of times you go in on a player and I plant my flag and I'm telling everybody I'm right. This is what I project. And I, you know, I think that this will be an outcome for 2021, which is outstanding fantasy value for Camakers. But I am scared of it because I certainly see.

many ways that it could go wrong. But I project him to be extremely involved in the passing game. I think that was part of why they made the shift from Goff to Stafford was they want to use all their eligibles. They want to use the tight end more. They want to use the running backs more. And Cam can do it. It's just a matter of whether he gets the opportunity. And I had one more thing I wanted to talk about because it was very interesting. Caught my eye. And shout out to Jake Tribby. He's...

He writes for fantasy points. Our friends over there at fantasy points. And he was, made us a chain of events because he was pointing to an article from the athletic. But out of camp for the New York Jets, Keelan Cole, the forgotten Keel and Cole who had his flash in the pan for the Jacksonville Jaguars, he is running with the ones right now. And it is presumed. Across from.

Corey Davis. From Corey Davis, who was their big, Corey Davis was the big free agent acquisition from the New York Jets. And they also signed Keel and Cole, kind of, you know, obviously that wasn't as heralded as Corey Davis, who was coming off a great season. Denzel Mims, meanwhile, the former second round pick of last year's draft is running with the twos. And it was, I mean, it was simply a, well, it'll be Corey Davis and Denzel Mims will be the starting wide receivers for the New York Jets.

But this is extremely interesting and something that people need to be keeping an eye on. And the report from the Athletic was talking about how they want to run the Shanahan system. And Denzel Mims doesn't fit that archetype of that type of a receiver, which may be why he's running with the twos. I mean, we're really in speculation right now. But this is a big deal for dynasty value of Denzel Mims and just the redraft.

sleeper hope of Denzel Mims. Like he's an incredible athlete and a contested catch type of a receiver. It's a vertical guy. Yes. He's like a Kenny Goliday. But like in a really athletic version of that. But this is wild, man. It goes to show that like, especially when you do fantasy year round, like you cannot just, you know, put a depth chart in your head and stick to it. You need to stay water and understand that these teams.

don't see the world the way that we see them. And the draft capital of Denzel Mims and the fact he was with the previous head coach regime, like those things matter. Keel and Cole, it's funny because to a lesser degree, he's like Robert Woods was in Buffalo to me, where like you kind of physically see the gifts and abilities and talent all the time on the field, but he's not elevated in your brain until he gets an opportunity. I mean.

I will say this. Keel and Cole's success at the professional level has come out of the slot a lot of the time. So this is not, you know, being opposite of Corey Davis. That's not something that we've seen as much success from Keel and Cole. They have Elijah Moore in the picture there too. And Crowder still around. Not only just Crowder. I saw a report that Zach Wilson has the best report so far through the OTAs. Oh boy. Yeah, with another name Braxton Barrios. So it is, that's no joke. He was the most target.

I mean, that's really what I take away from this right now is kind of hands off. Is, yeah, the Jets, wide receiving core needs to, I mean, they're, they're, you know, doing the sifting through the sand trying to get the gold. And right now there is just a lot of dirt in that basket. And I'm going to wait until I see the shine before I, you know, really declare who's the one, who's the two, you know, who's making the roster. Keel and Cole, it was a five and a half million dollar contract.

Yeah. Well, he's a very solid NFL-wide receiver. Trustworthy. Like, MIMS hasn't quite hit that level yet. Right. And that was the point of bringing this up was really to talk. I don't believe that Keel and Cole is going to have incredible fantasy value, but it's more of a, holy crap, Denzel Mims is running with the twos. The path for Mims is probably, I mean, your odds are low at this point. Yeah. With Corey Davis signing, with Elijah Moore's future.

Like, you should probably ship Mims out right now if he's got any shine to his name. Definitely. All right. Before we move into our fantasy wild cards, want to thank today's sponsor, Hello! Fresh! You know about Hello Fresh. The America's number one meal kit, you get fresh pre-measured ingredients, mouth-watering seasonal recipes, and they are delivered right to your door. Skip the trips to the grocery store and count on Hello Fresh to make home cooking easy and fun. All three of us have had Hello Fresh.

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Firstleaf.com slash footballers at six bottles of wine for 2995 and free shipping at try firstleaf.com slash footballers. No, I'm saying, no, guys, why are the brakes working? Because I cut the brakes. I forgot about that, drop. That's a treat every year. I forgot about that. Yeah, that's great. All right. We each picked out some, like we described them before, hard to rank players, wide range of outcomes.

lots of question marks. But that's where value can be found. I want a new piece to this this year. I want at the end of our descriptions of the wild card because we're painting the range of outcomes. Okay. I want us to declare whether we believe they hit or miss on the range of outcomes. Which side is more likely? I'm not going to do it. Okay. I will. And you're welcome, Footland. Well, then why don't you kick it off and just show us how it's done? All right.

I'll start with DeAndre Swift. DeAndre Swift is an ultimate wild card because he is extraordinarily talented. He's great. When I watch him on the field, he makes people miss. He is so smooth as a pass catcher, which is where a lot of his value came from. He had a nose for the end zone, eight rushing touchdowns on a already bad team, right? Yeah, that seemed impossible. It does seem impossible. I mean, there was a 5 and 11 team. A lot of people are making a big deal of the fact that, you know, the lions are a bad team and you don't want a running back from a.

Bad team. Well, this running back missed three games and really didn't, in the beginning of the season, wasn't very involved in their game plan. He finished as the running back 18 already on a bad team. Now this team wants to, I mean, come on, Dan Campbell, he wants to dedicate to the run. And if you had to tell me, hey, I don't necessarily trust the offensive mastermind of Dan Campbell. But here's what I do trust. I trust him to say, oh, we're down two scores.

Should run the ball. We should really establish dominance on the ground. And I do think that they will still have Swift involved in the passing game. When I statted these players out, I was very surprised how high Swift was in my rankings.

because I am down on the Lions and down on their prospects. I don't like their running game, but it was really the passing volume work because not only is he talented, but there's not a lot of other options out there. I'm not a big believer in the Breschard Pyraman Tyrol Williams 1-2 at wide receiver. That's why I've been high on DeAndre Swift. That's why I've been high on T.J. Hawkinson because there's just necessary volume. Every NFL team throws X amount, and these players have to, someone has to catch the ball.

within the range of outcomes for D'Andre Swift is, you know, is one of those type of league winning top 10 type of backs. He's that talented. However, the picture is also painted on the other side where the touchdowns were really the thing propping him up the most in his rookie season to get to that running back 18 finish, that and the targets. And you've got Jared Goff coming in who might not throw the ball to the running back as much as Matthew Stafford.

The touchdown opportunities might not be there if they project to be even worse than a five-win team. And you have the history of kind of third-round running backs in fantasy football. It's really, really not good. Third round.

ADP. Third round ADP, which is where right now you're finding, and I expect him to land. Like he is the definition of a yearly third round running back. A guy with plenty of talent and upside, but a lot of question marks. And you wonder, should I avoid, should I get? I don't like drafting wild cards in the third. No, no. Well, let me tell you how that's worked out. Okay. There's been 28 running backs drafted in the third round.

for the last five years. Okay, that's a huge sample size. And you've got, we've categorized everybody into a bunch of different league winners, huge win, hit, miss, big whiff, and landmine. The landmine and the big whiffs, if you draft those guys, it's going to drastically hurt your team. A turd in the third. A turd in the third? My man. Yeah. Whoa, that rhymed. So good. That's what the people come for, man. So how often has a turd and the third been drafted? Uh-oh.

46% of those running backs in the third. Of those running backs in the third. 46% have been a big, big turd. That's a real turtlehead situation. Only two of them have turned out to be league winners. It was Aaron Jones and Derek Henry. Now, those were gyms that you found a couple years ago in the third round who, I mean, look, if you hit, I mean, those were wild cards. If you hit, it's going to help you get to the championship. But more often than not, these third round running backs suck.

And there's a reason that they're not drafted in the top two rounds. Is that a side argument for running backs in the first and second round? I mean, if you're basically punting one running back for a wide receiver, a tight end in the first and second round, you're hitting the third round going, oh boy, DeAndre Swift's still on the board. I can grab him. Yeah, I mean, that's a problem. I mean, I, so in the end here, my wild card, I certainly could see a great season for DeAndre Swift, but I don't believe that that's going to be.

If I have to put my money on, you know, hit or miss, I'm going to say he's going to be a miss this season. Well, that's the example of what we were supposed to do. It's just too many things that could go wrong. And the only thing you're betting on is just pure talent of the individual. That's, that's it. And that's not even saying anything about Jamal Williams. Well, don't forget Michael Warren. They just signed it. Oh, fantastic. No, I'm super worried. I mean, he's a wild card. He's going to have big games. But I am concerned about.