Week 14 Buy or Sell + Fantasy Playoffs Mailbag, Jason Does Math

So it's kind of matchup based. But if you look at what the bears have done and what they've given up, you know, since week six, their bi-week, they've only given up two top 12 performances on the year. Granted, you know, the last couple weeks, they haven't played great competition. They were on a third-string quarterback against Detroit, who still did better than expected. You thought they would.

You know, and Daniel Jones. So I see DAC as a low-end quarterback one, high-end quarterback two, you know, to finish in that 11 to 14 range. Yeah, and so I'm playing him. I think I'm playing him too. He's just been too good this year. Dak only has two times that he's let you down, finishing as the quarterback 24. Yes, he has a QB-13 performance that he had on the road against the Jets.

Whatever, man. I'll take the QB 13 when you have the upside of Dak Prescott. He's been fantastic. Yeah, yeah, I think I'm going to play him too. David Montgomery, last week was the running back 14 against Detroit, has had a few good performances fantasy-wise in the last seven weeks, but it has not been consistent. He's had between 13 and 17 carries in all of the last five games.

How do you feel about David Montgomery at home going up against the Cowboys run defense that ranked 17th right now in terms of fantasy points allowed? I feel not great. Not great at all. You know, look, if it's a defense, you know, I talked about I thought Montgomery was a decent play last week because he was going up against a basement dwelling run defense. Now,

the Cowboys aren't some lockdown run defense out there, but they're not bad. They're just, they're just an NFL defense that can stop a poor run. It's just an NFL defense, man, just an NFL D. And David Montgomery is bad. He's just been terrible. He's just been completely ineffective on a per touch basis. And I don't think. That was all true before last week, though. Yeah, but he had, and he had a nice week. My point was Detroit can't stop the run. And so all of a sudden.

David Montgomery is like, oh, this is great. Look, look at it. They can't stop me. But he, I mean, he has sucked against any high level of competition. And I would put Dallas is certainly able to stop David Montgomery. So, Mike, is he a top 20 running back to you this week? Ooh, top 20. I, let's see. I'm going to pump a love with the rankings. I have him right now sitting at 19 with Austin Echler just.

behind him in Devon Singletary. And I think I'd play those two guys over Montgomery. So I would say no. And I've got to move Montgomery down a bit. Tony Pollard was sidelined in Tuesday's practice. Judge, if you have any more news on Pollard for today, let us know. But right now it's going to be Zeke. Obviously, he's in your lineup no matter what. Alan Robinson and Anthony Miller, we've talked quite a bit about them over the course of the past couple of days.

They both had monster weeks against Detroit on Thanksgiving, and here they face Chicago. They are at home. I'm sorry, they face Dallas. They are at home. And Anthony Miller been soaking up targets. Brooks, can we get a status on Taylor Gabriel as of right now? That's everything to me for if you're going to take the chance and play Anthony Miller as a wide receiver 3 or a flex play. The last three weeks, Dallas, you know, when facing, they had been pretty staunch against fantasy wide receivers.

But they gave up the seventh most against Detroit, 13th most against New England's, ninth most against Buffalo. Last three weeks have been a little bit softer. Last three weeks for Anthony Miller, 11 targets 9 and 13. Oh, it's been amazing. Yeah. Gabriel did not practice yesterday. Yeah, and on the short week, I think we can pretty much say if he hasn't even trended through the protocol in the right direction yet and they are playing tomorrow, Gabriel's out. I'm willing to.

It's a tough situation because you do have certain players in your lineup that you're waiting on. If you're waiting on Julio or Thielen, you're not forcing Anthony Miller or Ellen Robinson into your lineup over those guys. And obviously more confidence in Robinson long term than you do Anthony Miller. I think that you can flex Anthony Miller this week without Taylor Gabriel because this is a team that should be the Cowboys are favored and Anthony Miller's been getting 10 targets a game. So that's as simple of an equation that I need.

But we've only seen it for three games from Anthony Miller. Yeah, he's a talented, wide receiver, and he's getting targets. So if you make that argument to start him, I think the process is sound. I'm not going to start him because I don't trust Trubisky against a decent defense. Please tell me you'll bet Anthony Miller versus your Sammy Watkins talk from earlier. No, but I will take that. No, I have another name out there that I'm saying I would definitely play over him who's available on waivers. So if you want to make...

a bet against Zach Pascal, I'm all in. Pascal has a good matchup this week. He does. He's playing Tampa. My point is there are other good options where you don't need to start Anthony Miller against the Cowboys if there are good options out there that you could pivot to. Yeah, and you consider Pascal to be one of those. Who would you rather start Anthony Miller, Mike, or Zach Pascal this week? Pascal. Okay. I was going to say, do you want to play Anthony Miller or...

player who's been on fire, at least fantasy points-wise, Debo Samuel. Devo Samuel would be playing the Saints, but, I mean, he's getting, what, like the four targets a game? I would play Debo Samuel. Okay. Upside there, probably. That's kind of what, when you play Dallas, you just kind of cut off the top end of your upside the way that their defense is playing. Amari Cooper on the other side, look, they don't call a Mike right for nothing, okay? They don't call a Mike wrong. No, they don't. I've tried.

Oh, yeah. It never takes. We tried to make him apologize. Russell Wilson, apologize to Russell. Oh, wait, Russell Wilson. Mike's throwing stats into our Slack channel this morning. Oh, you mean the stat that Jared Goff has more quarterback won games than Russell Wilson? Yeah, or the fact that Tom Brady does as well. Didn't you bring him up? Tom Brady has as many top 10 games as Russell Wilson. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So does Matthew Stafford. Who?

hasn't been playing for like a month. And so then you apologized to Amari Cooper a few weeks ago. Yeah, this is very reluctantly and insincerely. And people, people were all of them. Oh, they're like, you need to redo that apology. Yes. Because it was a bad apology. In fairness, it was a terrible apology. Right. You didn't apologize at all. Since, since, since Apology gate took place about a month ago, Amari Cooper is averaging 5.9 points per game as the wide receiver 52 behind the likes of Willie Sneed and Brashad Perryman.

He is on the road. Amari Cooper, I apologize for nothing. In a tough matchup. You are the worst, Amari. I believed in you. But what do you do? You play him. Yeah, you play Amari Cooper. Of course you play him. You play Amari Cooper. No doubt about it. It's unfortunate, but I know that he will bring you pain. You got here with Amari Cooper. I have doubt about it. I mean, you say you play him with no doubt about it. I got some doubt.

Okay. I mean. Okay, so let's, I'm going to rattle off some names. Do you play this person above Amari Cooper? Robert Woods against Seattle. Yes. Alshan Jeffrey against the Giants. Okay. Let's go down here. Devante Parker. Parker is, Parker is, okay. Parker does not have the name recognition, but he's like basically been the top five wide receiver. Yeah, number three over the last five weeks for Devante Parker.

All right, let's make it a little bit harder here. Murray Cooper is the wide receiver 18 in that span. I assume Andy Dalton is playing. So Tyler Boyd against Cleveland. Boyd has been very good with Andy Dalton. Yeah, I'm going to play. I'm going to go down with Cooper. I'm going to go down with Cooper. Michael Gallup, though, in the last five games, Michael Gallup is wide receiver 15. Amari Cooper is the wide receiver 18 in the last five.

So are you taking a shot on, like, would you rather play Michael Gallup in this matchup on the road or Anthony Miller at home in this matchup? Oh, the wide receiver two's. The wide receiver two battle. I'm going to trust the quarterback. Okay. So that means I'm going to saddle up. All right. I think you could do worse than Jason Witten at Tide-in. That's the definitely the tagline of Jason Witten. You could do worse. The Jason Witton story. I suppose. The memoir. You could do worse. I think you can do my last 10 years. You could do a lot better.

Yeah. The aforementioned Jack Doyle. That is the one area where they are giving up over 10 fancy points per game, 25th in the league. The Bears have been vulnerable. And when pushes come to shove lately, he's throwing the ball to Jason Witten. I mean, you could do worse. You could do better. I think that's fair. He's the tight in 14 over the last five weeks. He's had two top 10 performances. But then he's had three games outside the top 20. So.

You got to hope he scores. That's what you're doing with Jason Witten. I'd probably be looking for more upside, Jay. You're right. I mean, in this matchup, you've got, you know, a 43 point over under. That's a little bit on the lower side, but not, that's not a terribly low over under. I still, I expect less than I do more. I would take the under on this. Tighten 13 on the year. So Jason Witten is all queued up for his big.

Tighten 12 finish. Oh, that's right. That's a good point. You know we knew before the season. How's Frank Gore going to get to running back 12? He's going to need a real big game. Not going to make it. All right. You guys want to get into the mailbag? Yep. Mailbag. All right. If you have a question, head to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. You can click the submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline 302464 TFFB. Keep them brief to the point. We'll get to as many as we can. Before we do.

get into this first voicemail question, I don't know where you bumped Sammy Watkins to, and I can't get them out of my head because every time I look at you, you're wearing the Lizard King shirt. Don't tell me, I'll water bet you he finishes below wherever you have him. I don't care where you have him. Okay. But I don't, I don't care at all. All right. That's a good. Waterbed. Where do you have them? It needs to be on the record. I have, yes, now I'm going to say I have him as the wide receiver 44. That's fine.

That's fine. You bumped him up to 44? On the season. Yes. So this is not saying play Sammy. My point was in. Oh, it sounded like it when you said that. My point is in discussing Tyreek Hill. Sammy Watkins, if you include the entire year is the wide receiver 48. So you have him slightly above his season average. Exactly. Since, if you just take out week one, he's the wide receiver 77 on the same. That is. 77. Wow. That is a player that you don't.

You should, he should hang out with Robert Foster on the weekends. That's how good he is. In fairness to Sammy, since week one, he has only had Pat Mahomes most of the games and he's only had a lot. He's had, with or without time he kill. He's had plenty of targets. So, you know, he actually hasn't now, though. That's changed. Over the last three weeks, he's under 10%. So his target share is actually going down because they've decided. He's not good.

Yeah, he's decided. Dave decided. Have you seen the snow? Watch him blow up this week. That's what I need. Week one of the season and week one of the playoffs. That's what we need to Sam. That's Sammy's style. I didn't say this because it's so stupid, but it is the truth and I am stupid, so I will say it. Part of why I was, oh, thank you. I was looking for this earlier. Part of the reason I moved him up was because they take the wide receiver one option away. But the other part of the reason, no joke that I moved him up.

was because Sammy will do it when you least expect it. When you can't start him, when you didn't start him against the Patriots, you're not starting Sammy. Do not do it. But he's going to blow up. In fairness to the Patriots, they also take away all your other weapons on a week-to-week basis. All right, let's jump into the voicemails. Yo, what's up, baller? This is David from Florida. And I just want to know what you guys make up the Julio Jones situation.

He's just coming off of an injury. And if you have other options such as Devonte Parker or Cortland Sutton, would you start him over guys like them? Thanks. So I'll weigh in first here. Julio was really close to playing last week. He was out on the field before the games. He wanted to play. He's a gamer. I'm going to go down with Julio. There's no fathomable way that Julio is not in my lineup. If Julio is active, he has a history of

Coming in and out of games, and I've talked about recently waiting, if you can, on the week back from injury, to avoid that risk. But we've always had that caveat with, except for the top tier players. Julio is flat out a top tier player. He's, you know, one of the best five wide receivers in the league. You know, you, you know, Adam Thielen is, you know.

a tier or two down where you go, okay, I don't know. Maybe I don't want to take that risk week one. You take the risk with Julio. It's a plus matchup against the Panthers. Yeah, Carolina. I want to play Parker this week, but I'm definitely not going to play Cortland Sutton. Even with the great game he had last week, I wouldn't play him over Julio. I definitely, I guess I understand the thought of playing.