Ultimate Draft Tips + Fantasy Football Strategies for Draft Day - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/27

So keep that in mind what they did with Ronald Jones, what they did with Leonard Forenette. Chase Claypool, huge mental mark on all the fantasy players out there. Awful, awful down the stretch. He started hot. Five consecutive games as a wide receiver, four or worse, in that offense. And so if they don't pass as much, are you marginalizing Claypool to only a big play type of guy? And then, Mike, I hate to do this to you. But I was shocked looking at the consistency snapshot tool. On mine? Michael Pittman, Jr.

Oh, yes. Lots of hope for him this year. Lots of hype. Really, nothing that should be based on last year's fantasy finishes. Two games, the entire season, inside the top. Can you believe that? I mean, that is a shocking lack of production. You have Hilton Healthy. You have Paris Campbell coming back. So keep those things in mind. And there are a lot of things that you can. Really bad quarterback play coming up. I agree with both of those statements.

What? You like Pittman? Really bad quarterback coming in. Huge upgraded quarterback. No, I said upcoming. Yeah, I know. Oh. Yeah. There's a really bad quarterback coming in. It's a huge upgraded quarterback. Oh. Take that. Oh, wow. I'll get shots in even when you're retired. You judo through my Carson Wenz insult into a Philip Rivers. That's right. Use the momentum against it. Impressive. I have a feeling Carson Wins is going to dominate some conversation this off season.

So look at the snapshot tool. Take advantage of the insights that you can pull out of there. Those were some examples. Yeah, I absolutely love that. That's been for about three or four years my most used tool for personal fantasy. So definitely take a look at the snapshot tool. I'm going to talk about something that everybody wants to have. They make their lists. They like our lists.

It makes a huge difference when you're in your draft. That's sleepers, breakouts, values, busts. Those outliers and the importance of hitting on a couple of those. Nobody's going to get 100% of those right and every prediction is going to be accurate. But when you hit on a sleeper or a breakout or you avoid a bust, it changes the entirety of your roster and all of a sudden the flexibility and what you could do going forward.

It's not enough to just take your list of rankings and go into a draft and just take the next highest player at all times, especially as you get past those first few easy-to-decide rounds. You need to really consider the swing for the fence mentality, who's going to be a good value, who's going to be a breakout. I'll bring up some names. These were in our...

consensus list last year and that's for the most part what when you're in the ultimate draft kit and you're looking at sleepers breakouts bus values because we don't always agree on everything here these are the ones we agree on or at least at least two thirds of us have fought to get it in the yeah two thirds and then we've had to wrestle someone to the ground that's right we only do leg wrestling though yeah and it's it's a lot of fun um so last year we had a 2020 value of david montgomery

He was one of our big hits. Running Back 29 finished as running back four. Marvin Jones had that wide receiver 17 finish when he was drafted as the 37th wide receiver. You're welcome. I got it in. I fought and got A.J. Green in as a bus last year. You did. Take that, AJ Green. Now he's on my Cardinals. How does that feel? It feels like I would have him in the bus list again this year if he was drafted at all. But he's not.

People are smarter. Breakouts, right? This is the real important one. Calvin Ridley last year was in the breakouts. Josh Allen and Kyler were our two quarterbacks. They finished as quarterback one and two. So these lists are things you need to pay attention to. We mark the players for you with these icons in there. And I wanted to give, because this is a tip for 2021, I wanted to give you my two personal favorites from our consistent, our consensus lists for this year. And going to let you finish, but we'll throw out.

These lists just like everything else are updated throughout the season. We don't call the shots off season. We don't update them during the regular season when they're actually breaking out. Yeah. Well, I'm saying we don't make a list in May and then say that that's it. We're done. No, we will certainly, especially when it comes to values and, you know, people that might be a value now won't be later.

Here are my favorite, so my two favorite sleepers for markets as a list right now. I feel like these are just yours, though. Well, yeah, I'm the one giving the tip. So they're in there. But Damien Harris, running back for the New England Patriots, I think has a great opportunity. And Henry Ruggs, I don't project him to be awesome, but I think that the sleeper potential for him to really be the number one is there. So he's in there. That's a late round target that I would highlight. Breakouts, you got.

The aforementioned T.J. Hawkinson, which I am all about. You will not stop talking about T.J. Hawkinson. When he can depend on Jared Goff, he will. Look, when you are the best pass catcher on your team and you're a tight end, that's great for fantasy. You know, in my defense, he's the best pass dropper on his team, too. Yeah. Yeah, those are both true. And I love Terry McLaurin as a breakout option this year. This year's Calvin Ridley. Values, I know we're all.

very high on just the value of Tom Brady this year. And Amari Cooper, he is being left to be the wide receiver two for his team, except he's not. I'm going to talk about him in a little bit, too. Oh, I hope it agrees with what I'm saying. And then busts. We got Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon.

as my two favorite busts to avoid players to avoid this season. And then we've got a lot more. Every single position, every single category, you can peruse those lists in a couple of days. Mike, you got another tip for us? I do. So part of the ultimate. That's good. Nope, I'm all out. End of the show. Part of the ultimate draft kit is you get the companion app. It's just part of the package. And I just wanted to highlight.

how I use the app for drafting. So inside of our rankings, we give you, which the app is getting a complete facelift. The app is looking. It's app standing. Did you say app standing? Yeah, I did. And I loved it. But how's the, what? That was, that was brutal, man. App standing. Oh, man. Who's app standing joke? Okay. All right. So, so. I'll take my lumps. Inside the rankings.

uh we give you the ability to uh one you can draft a player and it takes them off the list so this is like a it's uh it helps you while you're in the middle of your draft uh but it also lets you mark people with uh three different symbols three different colors and i mean you could choose how you use it but i use red for avoid yellow is like uh focus on focus on them and then blue is like

Okay, these are my later round guys that I got to make sure I grab because we've all been in the draft where you're getting towards the end and you go, oh crap. I forgot he was there. I was going to, like I needed to remember to draft this guy. It happens all the time. And if you just give him a little highlight and you can scroll through the rankings because look, Jason is right of these guys that are drafted later. And we're giving you a.

a range of outcomes. That's what the rankings are. And we have the risk ratings in there because of like the probability of this hitting. And you forget. You forget the guys who are at the bottom of the ADP that you really like. Performance anxiety is a real thing, guys. Do it. Tilting in the draft. You need some help. Tilting in a fantasy football draft is now a national pastime that everyone experiences every single year. I can't go to better help for that, though. Can I? Probably.

Probably they can work you through that. But the ultimate draft kit, we're trying to make you as prepared as possible. And using the app in the rankings, drafting players, keeping track of everything, it really does help. I promise you. This is how I was going to give this tip. I was going to give this tip. You had it in before I did. Because it's super important. Every single draft that I have ever been a part of, I have either.

highlighted players, and I'm speaking specifically of those who are later, those like outside of the top 100 players, those later round guys. Highlighting, I've either highlighted the ones that I really want to target and I leave that draft super stoked with a couple of those pieces of ammunition or I've forgotten to highlight and I go, oh, dang it, every time those players are drafted because I missed them on my list. So yes, using that tool is exceptionally valuable.

All right, I want to bring up another tip from one of the reports you'll find in the Ultimate Draft Kit. And this is an echo of last year because it was very, very helpful. And when I looked at it, this is the Red Zone report. You can find it inside of the Ultimate Draft Kit. And it highlights opportunities that players had inside the Red Zone, inside the 10 zone. And last year on this show, the two players that I brought up were Devante Adams and Nick Chup.

because there was a very obvious opportunity for them to kind of positively regress based on their opportunities inside of the red zone and both smashed last year because it was just clear. They had so many opportunities. And they just weren't hitting. They weren't hitting the offensive line in Cleveland. We brought it up. It struggled last year. This year they fixed it. And Nick Chubb was otherworldly. And then Devante Adams just has so many opportunities. It was like, don't think that this is.

going to be the norm for him to have a handful of touchdowns. So I wanted to look at that report this year, bring out a couple of things that stood out. And truthfully, they informed and modified my rankings a little bit just from this analysis for this show. A few players leapt off the page to me. Zeke. Yeah. 32 rushing attempts inside the 10 yard line. Do you know how many touchdowns he had last year inside the 10? Five. He had five. That doesn't seem like it's going to hold.

No sense. In fact, anybody even close to him in that attempt total had at least nine touchdowns last year. So Zeeks 5 was a complete outlier. It makes me rethink the bounce back opportunity for Zique a little bit more, making it more probable. It was a career low in touchdowns last year for Zique. He had six total, five inside the 10, and he had 32 attempts. So that one was just jumped off the page. At the wide receiver position, two players stood out in the way that

Devante Adams did last year. DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper. Both of them ended up with only two touchdowns on targets inside the 10-yard line. Complete outliers based on their involvement in the red zone offense. Both should see tremendous touchdown increases this year. If those opportunities persist, which Jason just talked about, Amari Cooper, they should. They were just tough luck guys. On the inverse, oh no, we're going to bad news again. Adam Thielen.

Yeah. He had 13 10 zone targets. 13 10 zone targets that turned into 10 touchdowns. That is not likely to stay that high. He is very good. Cousins, very accurate. But that conversion percentage should come down. It should, but goodness. Every time he was on the goal line last year, he had some move that just made him wide open. I feel like it was automatic. You say 13 targets. I'm surprised it was the 13 touchdowns.

Well, I mean, but even if you look at the math on a great quarterback, they're hitting, what, 60, 70% of their completions. And he exceeded that 10 to 13. So take a look at the red zone report. Look at some other players that had massive opportunities. You know, one last one that I'll throw out there. Alvin Camara, I don't have it right in front of me now. But I remember, like, Camara scored a lot. I mean, he's ping pong back and forth between that red zone efficiency. But based on his 10 zone attempts,

You know, you could see his touchdown total come down. And the same type of nuggets that you can gleam from that, you could glean from the market share report as well. We don't have those specific references, but just pull those up and look at how these players are being utilized and be like, oh, this should be worth more or, oh, this should not be.

Worth what they got. I love that kind of analysis. And then you take that. And then you go to Mike's tip and you mark the players how you want them to be. And you're the fantasy analyst. And you say, I don't even need you guys anymore. I'm the captain now. I'm the captain now. All right. My last tip, my last ultimate draft tip, we, I think we have always done this always. This is what it's all about. We have talked about it for years. But I think we've actually not talked about it enough over the recent years for people who maybe have picked up in the last year or two. We used to talk about this. All the.

time, but tier-based drafting and the importance and the difference of drafting in tiers than drafting with just straight rankings. It is monumentally different. It is so helpful. It is the number one. If I could only take one tip from any of our tips, it would be to utilize. It would be this one. It would be to be mine.