10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy League - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/14

We have a new waiver wire tool coming out. It is not talked about. I'm not going to tell you about the ultimate dashboard. I'm not going to do it. No, you would not know about that unless you had been to join thefoot.com. Right. But if you stay tuned, we've got something really cool that's going to help you take advantage of this. Here's an example. So that we had this massive article done by one of our former great writers, Matt DeSorbo. He was formerly great. Right. Now he's not great. Well, he's no longer with us, so he's not great anymore. If you leave the footballers. Yeah, he's still great. You're formerly. You're a former league. He's still great. He's pretty great. Come back. So, but he, he did all the data. And the truth is week one breakouts have a higher fantasy point per game averages. This isn't just, oh, you get them more weeks, which is also true. But they actually average more fantasy points. And he wrote that back in 2021. We went and did the research.

Can I jump in really quick? I just want to reiterate what you said because I don't want it to get lost in this dump. Sure. Which is, this advice is if you spend the fab early on players early in the season, a lot of the times we have come out and said the one of the advantages, do you get them for more games during the year? But you're saying... I'm saying they're better players. They literally score more fantasy points regardless of the amount of weeks you have them. That's right. That's exactly right. This article was old. So we went back and looked at like, okay, well...

Was it still true? Is it still true last year? Take a look at the week one and week two pickups from last year. Kyron Williams was 6% rostered on Sleeper in week one. Puka Nakua, 10% rostered in week one. Nico Collins, Sam Laporta, Rushie Rice. Those were the pickups in week one. Week two, you still had Kyron Williams somehow out there in 63% of leagues. Devon A-chan. Nico was still available. Tank Dell. Jaden Reed. I mean, these are players that... Helped win championships. Turned Ferguson. Now let's take a look at some fab dumps later on, you know, the best available fab dumps later. Like I feel like I'm about to be attacked. You're not. You're not because it's not on the list. It's not, but you got demarcadoed. I'm already demarcato. I mean, you dumped a bunch of fab dumpster. Yeah. And so, you know, week eight. You owes me internet money. Week eight, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're spinning your fab dumps on Craig Reynolds and Rocheon Johnson and.

Jordan Mason, week nine, you got Zach Charbonnet and Daryl Henderson, John Dotson, you know, Pop Douglas. Like, hey, he was okay. Yeah. But like these are not weak winning, you know, guys, league winning guys. So when you start the season, and this is also kind of like a little tip B is at the end of your draft, grab guys. Dump plus. You can grab. players who you know you're fine to cut after week one. Like you're going to see and you're going to know they hit that expectation or they didn't like a like a Keon Coleman, right? Like, you know, that might be someone where you go, oh, he's not the starter, you know, and you're okay with it or whoever it is, but you want to make those transactions and go hard in the paint. And we'll bring this back up when it's week one and week two and tell you.

Don't hold on to your fab. Yeah, anecdotally, I know that this has been very beneficial in the past. And I've always targeted it because I know I have more weeks of that player and more guarantees, more players to trade, right? You have them early. You've got more assets to trade. It's good advice. All right. Number two. I want to talk about, nope, you got to name it. The importance of office is what I want to title this, which it does. It piggybacks a little bit what I was talking about finding the late round running backs that could sneak into the top 24. This is more about maybe there are players that are early in ADP that I should avoid because there is a big red flag on their offense that maybe I'm pushing it to the side and maybe I need to let it wave in the wind and really alert me to what is going on. It's hard to be a good fantasy player on a bad offense.

That seems like a common sense thing. But when I dove into it, to me, it's way worse than you really think about if you're on a bad offense. Last year, nine wide receivers were drafted as top 36 wide receivers. Their teams finished as a bottom 10 offense. So the year went bad for that team. Of those nine players, only two of them met or exceeded their ADP value. In 2022, 12 wide receivers were drafted as top 36 guys who, unfortunately, they ended up on bad offenses. Three of the 12 met or exceeded their ADP value. Over the past four years, only 24% of the guys who end up on bad teams become a draft a value. Go to the running back position. Last year, nine running backs drafted as top 24 running backs, end up on bottom 10 scoring offenses.

Two of those nine met their ADP. In 2022, it was two of eight. It's the exact same percentage of guys who are on bad offenses that fail you for their draft day ADP, 24%. And it's just, it needs to be built into your process of looking at an offense, top-down approach. Not just the player, look at the top-down approach, and yes, there's ways to overcome it. You can volume your way there. Look at Brees Hall or Derek Henry. They were on bad offenses. but their volume was so high that they were able to overdo it. But fantasy football, we're looking at probability. We're trying to find a slight edge that might tip me off on, is this player doomed to be a draft they bust and not return the value that I am selecting them in the draft? Now, look, identifying the bottom 10 offenses that can be very difficult. I get that. But there are definitely teams out there where you know.

You know that it would be an absolute shock for them to become or to jump out of the bottom 10, like the Patriots, right, the Broncos, the Raiders, the Steelers, like, I feel pretty confident that at the end of the year, these will be. Did you say the Giants? The Giants are in my list as well. Yeah, like, and I'm not trying to say like. I know what the bottom 10 will be. I'm going to identify all bottom. It's the bottom 10. No, I know a few teams that are probably going to end up there. And if their players are being drafted high, maybe I, maybe I want to look elsewhere. Devante Adams, yeah, I hear you. Like I said, Devante Adams can volume his way out, but he was one of those disappointments. He was 80P wide receiver 8. He already was a disappointment last year. Yeah, he finished as 11. So you're like, literally, but it.

That's not what you drafted. I think like 12, 13 years ago when I was playing fantasy without all the data, without the fundamental knowledge that you're spreading. I came to a draft one year and I was like, I'm going to draft players on good teams. Like I went into it. That was my entire draft strategy as a new player. was one year I just said, I'm taking players on good teams. And it was just this overarching thought that, like, one, I mean, you don't want to be kind of just praying all the stars align every week, right? You get out there and you're like, oh my gosh, Edna O'Connell. Just make a couple passes. Just make a couple. Just get it going. You know, having to make that bet over and over and over again, it's very, very hard. All right, we have, we got one more tip for you because otherwise it would just be nine. So here you go.

Number one. All right. We're all going to do this together. This is going to be kind of like a group exercise. We're going to say the title at the same time. No, no, no, no, no. I'm just saying that the listenership needs to, you know, I'm going to explain what this is and I want to, I want us to practice this together. Okay. We're going to call the number one tip and trick this year. Start, start fresh. Start fresh. Yeah, you did. Are we like, we're going to unburden ourselves here? We're going to, I'm going to play you some music. Oh.

And we're going to let go of the pain from last year. And we're going to let go of the burns. And we're going to let go of the baggage. Mike, D'Andre Swift, histories. We're going to not let it hold us back for making the wrong choices because they heard us last year. And so I'm going to play just some smooth jazz. And we'll just take a moment. And we'll just. We're going to reflect. We're just going to let it go. Wait. Yeah, let the lights come down low. Let it go. Let it go. Who hurt you in fantasy last year? Doesn't matter. Let it go. You are healed. You are free of that burden. Did that work, Mike? Is it starting to... It is? I didn't know this song went this long. I have been talking to... A therapist. Yes, yeah. But Kyle the Borgogan about this type of a thing. And it's like players that you should...

forgive them, let it go. And it's not easy. It's, it is not. And there, I mean, there's a big one for me. Okay, are we? Let's, let's work through it. It's T. Higgins. Nice. Like, I think I got to, oh, there's the lights again. He's not going to hurt you. I got to, I got to forgive him. I, I think that, I think that using the last unfortunate injuries of the, of the past couple years against him. You're ready to move forward? Yeah. I've worked through the pain of the offseason. And I'm ready to be hurt again. There's only one person in every league that should not start fresh. That should hold on to the past. And that should make the rest of their league mates eat it. Yeah. And that is the champion of every league. Forget nothing. Live in the past. Forget nothing. Rub it in all year. By the way, Mike, are you a champion? I sure am.

Congratulations on that champ. Are you a champ? I am also a champion. Congratulations. Going to hold on to the past, baby. I hate you guys. Yeah, well, that makes sense. Do you want us to start a third league that you can win? Hey, first time in 10 years I didn't win it. Every time. All right. We have two more shows this week. One's the mock draft. One's the my guys episode. Don't miss it. Goodbye. you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the ffballers.