Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Week 16 Christmas Episode Part 2, Fantasy Forecast, Playoff Mailbag

You're dying. Yeah, you see David Johnson getting the ball and trying to control this with the hurt defense. Who? David Johnson. I apologize. It's been two hours. We need it. As far as, you know, the wide receivers that I would start from the Packers, it's probably going to be nobody. James Jones would be the only guy I would consider starting, I think. Over Cobb? Well. Is Cobb going to get Patrick Peterson? That's the question. So Cobb is.

I think Cobb gets Patrick Peterson, but what do you guys think? James Jones? I would tend to agree that Patrick Peterson will shadow Cobb. Yeah, I'd still play Cobb over James Jones. Yeah, if... In a standard league, maybe Jones, but in PPR leagues, I would play Cobb. He's the better probability play, but that's... What this says to me is I don't play... I'm not chasing anything for the Packers passing game here. I'm not going to play...

Richard Rogers, I'm not going to play James Jones, I'm not going to play Randall Cobb. That's how I see it. See, I would apply the Matthew situation a lot more to Cobb than I would Richard Rogers. Matthew has been, he's the slot corner. He's not just our free safety. He's the nickel corner. He's the guy who comes in and stops the third down play to Randall Cobb. So if they can adjust, then that'll be true, but I like the volume numbers for Cobb. That's why I'm okay with him. Here's the hard part, though.

I mean, this is a 50 point over under. Vegas is saying there will be points scored in this game. And they will. You can't sit all your Packers down. You have to play somebody because someone's going to score. And I don't think it's going to be Eddie Lacey. So maybe it's James Starks. And the receiving corps will get something done. So you have to start Packers in this game. And then Cardinals wide receivers, we have Larry Fitzgerald, who's been kind of not performing for fantasy owners. Yeah.

The emergence of Michael Floyd has killed Larry's touchdowns, for sure. And then John Brown, three drops last week, but still a productive week with the touchdowns. If I had to rank these guys, you see if you agree with me, I'd go Floyd Brown fits. That is exactly how I would run. I think that's how I have it. All right, two games left. The Giants and the Vikings, this is a primetime game. We're still waiting to hear about O'Dow Beckham Jr., unfortunately. That appeal is set to go by or go through today. So we are checking.

During the course of... I'm going to check right now. Yes. So... I can't imagine he wins the appeal. That's just prediction. I don't know, man. Those bats, they're scary. They could drive a man over the edge to take no responsibility for his own actions. All right. The Giants and Vikings, Bridgewater. Listen, near perfect passer rating last week, throwing four touchdowns, three in completions, two straight games.

of great quarterbacking performance and the Giants. Well, we know what the Giants are. The 32nd in the league against the past, and they don't know how to stop the past. That being said, I think they'll put up some points on the Vikings. So this is a game. Vegas has it at a 45 and a half point over under. The Vikings are favored. We expect AP to play. He said he should be good to go. So AP owners, breathe with me. Breathe with me. Boom, boom, doodoo. AP is a fine. I wanted him to relax. I didn't want him to relax.

Well, you can't say breathe with me then. Yeah, I know. I got to be careful. So, I want to know, guys, Stefan Diggs. Is he back in town? Are you starting him this week? Honestly. Diggs or, uh, or Tyler Lockett? I'll go lock it. Jermaine Curse. I would go Diggs over curse. Diggs. I'll take curse. Really? You guys are doubters. You guys are cursed doubters. That's more of a Diggs is, Diggs could do something this week.

Diggs is the number one for his team. That's fine. No, you're right. You want to water? No, I don't. I don't because it's the two and a half. It's the giants. It's the giants. So we like Will Ty, the Tie Fighter at Tight End. He's a really good, well, there's a lot of ties. Tie is a tight end. That's perfect. He is somebody who, without Adele Beckham Jr., I love him this week because he offers me the baseline and he offers me the upside then.

You're not going to have Odae Beckham Jr. being targeted in the end zone if he's not playing, I think. And Ruben, the wide receivers, Ruben Randall and Harris, they do get a bump. But Ruben Randall has a very long career of letting you down. So that's why I like Ty. Oda Beckham Jr. owners, they have Randall or they want Randall. Are you fine just kind of rolling Randall out there? Yes. Yes, I am fine because I think.

that Randall will be involved. And Randall has had good games. I just, I don't love it. I'll say, you don't love what? Randall. I don't love Randall, but I'm perfectly okay with it, that you're, you're in a pinch, you got Beckham, you don't think he's going to play, then to go with Randall. I'm okay with it. We got another player who's enjoying the Mega Man benefits of the late season run, and that's Rashad Jennings. Yeah.

We got really excited. You guys were ready for some Rashad Jennings. So what is the story here? Can we start him this week? And who would you start them over? I can tell you where we have them in the rankings, but what are your thoughts on Rashad Jennings? The problem that I have with Rashad Jennings is really the matchup. Minnesota has a good run, but Rashad Jennings has always been a very productive runner.

The issue has just been, he's been splitting in a three-way time share. But when he came, I mean, look at last year. When he was the guy, he was amazing. Well, yeah. Well, that's not really true. In the beginning of the year last year. For fantasy purposes. That's what I'm talking about. Yes. As a runner in the beginning of the year. No. His yards per carry were very bad. Well, that's when he was the guy.

No, but when he's been the guy, he's been a productive fantasy player. The last two weeks, he's been the guy. He's had 22 carries and 16 carries. And so the question now is, you know, are they going to be able to overcome the Rundi, you know, Chicago only put up? Actually, you know, Minnesota's Rundi, I don't think they're the same right now with their injuries. Well, because the backer was out again last week. And, you know, if he's back, look, who would you start him over? Alfred Blue? Yes.

Would you start them over Cameron Artis Payne? No. Would you start them over Joe Bernard in a standard? In standard, yes. Jeremy Langford in a standard? No. Alfred Morris in a standard? Yes. You'd start them over Alfred Morris? Yes. James Starks? Yes. Okay. I just, I want some context for it. That's very helpful for people who are thinking about Rashad Janis. Boy, those numbers starting to look nice. What do I do here when I'm in a pinch? I don't have Rawls anymore. I don't have Johns and Stewart. You don't have O'Dell Beckham. What do you need to do?

You don't want to get into some kind of a shootout. You need to control the ball a little bit more and get a better running game. All right. We are going to hit the Monday night game. Is that all right? In the face. Right in the face. The Bengals and the Broncos Monday night football. The McCarron Osweiler battle of all battles. Oh, we've all been looking forward to this. Is there any, you know, give some context here. Kubiak has been talking about. The Cubs has been talking about his quarterback situation. And he says he's going to start from scratch.

So what does that mean? It means that Osweiler is going to play this week. I don't think Manning's coming in this week. Well, the focus for Manning is rehabbing right now, and Osweiler can get them through this week. They need to, you know, they could still miss the playoffs, right? Denver? I think there's still a chance that they can miss the playoffs. Yes, I do. Who's in the wild car? I know the Steelers are in the wild car. I'll after you talk about the game. Statistically, I think you're right, but I don't think it's going to play out there. So here's the deal with Osweiler. Here's how the 10 and 4 division leading Broncos can miss.

the playoffs. Here's how in this scenario. The Broncos lose to the Bengals and the Chargers and beat the Chargers and they finish 11 and 5. The Jets went out, 11 and 5. The Steelers win at Baltimore and at Cleveland, 11 and 5. Chiefs win their home games, 11 and 5. The Broncos miss the playoffs in that situation. That's not an impossible situation. That's actually a reasonable situation. You better win this game. So the big issue there is that means the Jets would have to beat New England.

This weekend. At home? It could happen. It could happen. With no Amandola and Edelman. Sure. Sure. But that's one of the difficulties. Yep. But this was an unforeseeable impossibility based on their start and how they've been playing. And now the Broncos are in that situation. So I say all that to say, this is a big game for Denver. There's a big game for that franchise right now to secure a playoff spot, to likely secure the division, win this game. You're probably going to win your next one.

Emmanuel Sanders exploded last week. What do we do with the wide receivers? Because it feels like something where I can put them out there. They might have these big games. They might not because of the flow of the game in Osweiler's capability. The first and second half last week were insanely different. Yeah, and it's ceiling. I know that both Sanders and Demerius Thomas have tremendous ceiling, so I'm okay playing them. The floor is clearly lower, clearly lower with Osweiler with the way they've, in flowing the game.

And Brock Osweiler, perfect example. Anything that happens can happen in reverse. There you go. Because the first half, he could not have looked a better quarterback. And the second half could not have looked a worse quarterback. He is very much a one-reed guy. With good physical skill to make the throw if it's there. And you cover that one, the first read, then there's going to be.

problems for Osweiler. But I think because of how well he played in the first half, that is going to be Osweiler. Now, I'm with Jason, though. He's not a guy that I'm going to chase those points, especially against the Bengals. Yeah, Jason's sit of the week was Brock Osweiler. Jason, what are your thoughts on the Sanders-Thomas confidence? And then what else do you see from this game? You know, either one of those guys, both those guys are startable. They're going to be fine. The problem that I have with them is actually their ceiling. I don't think they've got this game I see as a lower scoring game.

You have two great defenses, both who have lost their original starting quarterback, and I have quarterback questions right now. So I think both teams, if you're the Bengals right now, you're going up in a matchup against the absolute best past defense imaginable. You've lost...

Tyler Eifert, you might not have A.J. Green, and they're a little bit more susceptible on the ground. I feel like you have to try to make this one of those defensive type of battles where you're going to use G.O. and you're going to use Jeremy Hill. They gave him over 30 total carries last game. I expect something like that to happen again, which just brings the fantasy value down across the board on both sides of the ball. So when it comes to...

Emmanuel Sanders and Demarius Thomas, I think both are okay plays because either one, both could get seven catches for 90 yards and one of them get a touchdown. But I don't see any situation where they both explode and there's just this high scoring back and forth. There's just two good defenses on the field. And it's fair, but in a situation where one of them can go off, I'm going to play them both, so to speak. Sure. I'm not sure people have both of them on their team.

So if you have to pick one, I guess I'd go Thomas. If you have to absolutely pick between them, that's a tough choice, though. Well, and Jason, I think your take is spot on. I think this is going to be a game that disappoints fantasy owners who start players in this game. Hill and Bernard combined for 1.9 to carry last week. Now you go, you have to take on the number one run defense?

You said, I mean, the truth is the Broncos are the number one past defense. Right. And so the way you try to beat him is through the number one run defense. And that's just a tall task. I think that the Bengals are going to have a hard time scoring, especially without Green and Eiffurt. And even if you have Green, do you start Green? Let's say he's healthy. Yeah, I start him. Okay. So we do with Green what we did with Antonio Brown last week. Yeah. They're different players, but I would still start him. And I think Geo might be a sneaky play this week. Okay.

Which that's one of those. They might need to use another pass-getching guy, the forte situation with Jeffrey. It's just that kind of gut feeling of assimilating all the information and variables of the game. Do you know how many- Geo could be sneaky? Yeah, and I agree. Do you know how many carries Geo-Bernari? Geo-Bernard had on the ground. How many running-back carries he got? I do not. Last week? 14. He got 14. Yeah, Hill was not in the game to start. There was something weird going on. Do you know how many carries he got?

19. I mean, and they weren't running well.

But that's what you see. That's why I agree with you. I think they're going to do nothing. That's what I think is going to happen. I think they're not going to be able to do very much. And so I'm with you on that. All right, we're going to go ahead and take some time, answer listener questions in the mailbag. We're going to keep this Megalodon, Christmas special going. Yeah. We're over two hours. You know, a lot of people, they sit by the fire. They nestle by the fire and they play this episode every year. I mean, year after year. It's really a family tradition. Like, feed up.