Top 10 RB Rankings + Waller Watch, Target Goblins - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/11

Everybody could get injured. He has shown us that he could stay healthy as well. He's had full, complete, dominant seasons. Yeah, before last year, extremely durable for a huge workload. Yeah, and the injuries he had last year in the timeline is like he should actually be pretty fresh and super healthy. The camp reports, just to echo what you're saying, are that all the burst is back. He's looked exceptional in camp and...

They've reported he is the security blanket on any play that breaks down for Sam Darnold because that's what smart quarterbacks do. Cam Newton was not a checkdown quarterback. Then Christian McCaffrey arrived. It was like, oh, this guy will do a, make me look real good. If you look at over the last five years, the top targeted running backs, the number one top targeted running back was Christian McCaffrey in 2019. The number two was.

Christian McCaffrey in 2018. Then you had James White, Sequin, Barclay, David Johnson, and the number six was Christian McCaffrey. He is targeted like a wide receiver, and then he also gets the ball. He's two players in one, and he's the guy. The one worry is that, you know, instead of being up at 140 targets, he's going to be 100 targets. Oh, no. Yeah, I mean, there's not a lot to pick apart there. Mike Davis, who was a valuable compliment backup,

He's gone. Curtis Samuel was taking carries out of the backfield. He's gone. Absolutely. I mean, the depth chart is not, there's no one lurking in the shadows to try and take, like Reggie Bonifon. Okay, fine, fine player, Super Bonifon. Then they drafted Chuba Hubbard later in the draft. You're not worried about his position at being the number one. And to me, the success of Mike Davis on a team last, they weren't.

a great team last year, but the success of a journeyman running back in this offense speaks even higher to me of Christian McCaffrey's potential. Yeah, I mean, even the year before his running back one dominant season, he was the RB3. So, I mean, this is... All right, next. Yeah, let's move on. Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook is our consensus number two.

Last year he played 14 games, 312 carries 1557 yards, 16 touchdowns. 54 targets for another 44 receptions, 361 and 1. Was the running back three but missed two games, had a groin injury, missed week 6, and then week 17 didn't play. Workhorse back? Yep. Automatic role in the offense, like you know what to expect.

Jason, you had fears about a change at offensive coordinator. Then they just brought in his son. Cubs to Cubs. Yeah. I mean, whatever. If you go Cubs to Cubs, you don't worry about. No. I'm not worried about the scheme change. They're keeping the running scheme the same.

We know the talent of Dalvin Cook. We saw it last year. I've talked about how improved, I believe the Minnesota Vikings defense is going to be, putting them in more, you know, run-heavy scripts. And then if it's not run-heavy and if they're down, oh, no, he can catch the ball. He had over 50 receptions. The knock on Dalvin Cook is and always has been the injury history. His is far more prevalent and common in some of his, like the shoulder.

issue that he had in the past has a historical, you know, nature of coming back up at some point in their career. So that's the word with Alvin Cook. But again, the gap that I see between him and our number three in Alvin Camara is massive. This is, there's only two guys that are putting up points better than everyone on the ground. And then they also do a ton through the air.

So, you know, I can't, I cannot advise anyone to take someone else with one of the first two picks. Dalton Cook deserves durability credit, in my opinion. Going 14 games back-to-back years when you have a 250 and then 312 workload compared to the kind of the sentiment around him. And you're right. I mean, like, he's, yeah, the first couple years. He's kind of got that, he's got that injury aura. He's got, he's got LaShawn McCoy.

action going on on the reg where he comes off and you think he's hurting yeah when dalvin cook is your fantasy running back you're watching it's great you you watch him with joy admiration all these fantasy points but at least once per game he goes down to a season ending injury and if you were being pitched dalvin cook in like a meeting the top five performances the week winning ones would be part of it right like where he goes out there and the ceiling is always so high

You know, he has 13 top five performances over the last two years. Only Derek Henry's beaten that. And his floor is also so high. Right. He has one game last year where he wasn't a top 24 back. There is, I will say this, like the odds of Dalvin Cook beating Christian McCaffrey are high as well. Yeah, they exist. They exist. And they have the 26 ranked offensive line, and he did that last year. So we can move on. Next up is Jason just mentioned it.

It's Alvin Camara running back for the Norland Saints. I do consider him somebody that I think belongs in that top three. Like I put them together. Okay. I don't, even with, I think, the concerns here for Super Camario, it's around the offense. You have no, Michael Thomas is going to miss some time. So, okay, now we're already lacking an elite.

offensive weapon at the wide receiver position. Drew Bree's Hall of Fame quarterback is gone. So now the offenses will take a step back. If it's Tayson Hill, if it's James Winston, and that still remains to be seen. I think that's the hesitation on Alvin Camara. Andy, for you, those hesitations are.

just fueling your fire for like well i mean i'm not my fire is not fueled by problems no i mean like your your your stance of being so pro camara i i mean he's the offense he is the off the identity of the offense is no longer drew brees the identity of the offense at least to start the year is not michael thomas right the full identity of the offense is alvin troutman is adam troutman

But then the backup, no, Camara is just, he's automatic. Nobody's been more consistent in terms of just, it doesn't matter what happens around him. He was the number one running back last year. He played 15 games. Well, he did Christmas Day himself into. He can do a Christmas day. That's the point. And no, you're not going. Six. I forgot. It was six. It was six touchdown. Six rushing touchdowns. Oh, that's a lot of touchdown. And it should have been seven.

So, but without that game, he still had double digits on the ground. So, no, you're not going to get 312 carries from Alvin Camara. The way that you get that production comes differently in the passing game and with touchdowns in the receiving game and on the ground. I just, I have taken a firmer, will not doubt this man stance this offseason. And so he is, you know, firmly my three.

Looks like he's your guys as three as well, but you have a tier break, and I, I'm, that tier wall is starting to disintegrate for me. Yeah, so let me explain why there's a tier wall. And this is also the number four offensive line, not the 26th ranked offensive line. Yeah, the, the, the offensive line is good. Alvin Camara himself is phenomenal. Obviously the number one running back last year. So we know that's in the range of outcomes, but.

The offense is a concern. And if you look at what happened, obviously, they didn't build the offense around Taysom last year for the four starts. You know, they didn't have the offseason. They didn't have, you know, the setup. That was an injury causation that made them change on the fly. And that's not as easy. You saw the progression of getting Alvin Camara more involved in the passing game after Tason had played a few games. It's like, hey, pass the ball to Camara. But that's an issue, right? Like in the games without.

Taysam Hill, he averaged 8.9 targets a game. In the games with Taysom Hill, he averaged four. I don't care. Sure. But goal line rushing touchdowns, if it's Taysam, can also be siphoned. If you lose a chunk of your passing work and you lose a chunk of your rushing touchdowns and the offense is worse, there's reasons that I could see.

it not going as well. Whereas with Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Cook, it's injury. Well, Alvin Camer can get injured. Everybody could get injured. So there are just more variables here where I would not be comfortable taking Alvin Camara over the other two. But you're good at 103? He is my three. He is, if I'm at the three spot, that's my draft pick. Derek Henry is four. Derek Henry is large. Yes. Derek Henry had, I think, more than double the amount of.

carries than Alvin Camara had. Yes. It's got to be close. 378 for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. My goodness. He was the running back too. There were doubts about whether he could do this last off season. All of the warts of the runner only not pass catcher. It really hasn't mattered with Derek Henry. He's also.

like Camara, the identity of the offense, more than anybody else in football. I mean, the Tennessee Titans offense, you're either handing it to Derek Henry or you're pretending to hand the ball to Derek Henry. Right. So I guess the question is, what happens in 2021? You can't do this forever. No. So at some point in time, it will stop. No, and what you can't do forever is have.

seasons of over 300 carries. Now, where Derek Henry was eased into the NFL, because when he was, you know, back when he was drafted, DeMarco Murray was there, and DeMarco Murray ended up being the lead back for quite some time before it became truly Derek Henry's backfield. 2019, 303 attempts. Last year, 378 attempts. Derek Henry, to me, we're talking about Andy with Camara.

It feels foolish to bet against Derek Henry at this point. And we are clearly not. So we have them as our fourth ranked running back. But that should be, at least in the back of your mind, is we've seen running backs get that type of a workload historically. And they're the greatest running back in the league, greatest running back in the league straight into burnt toast. When it falls off,

with this type of a player, it's gone immediately when you're like Sean Alexander, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes. I think Derek Henry still has some time, but long term, Derek Henry, if he keeps getting this type of a workload, will...

His body will break down eventually. Yeah, if you're drafting not based on human beings and you're just drafting based on math, based on history, based on probabilities, Derek Henry should have a bad season by comparison to what he did last year and by comparison to being the fourth running back overall. Because historically speaking, when you have over 2,000 yards on the ground or 370 carries the next year, you are going to lose...

four or 500 yards. You're going to lose so many fantasy points that happens. Literally, I think the only exception to that, you know, is a first ballot Hall of Famer from the 60s. Like, it doesn't happen. But we've said this before. Like, I don't draft early round running backs that don't catch the ball.

except Derek Henry. He is an outlier. He is a different human being. And I am happy to draft Derek Henry. I am not going to doubt. It's kind of like you're saying, Andy, and you just don't doubt Alvin Kamara because he's super talented. And I'm not doubting Derek Henry. We haven't seen anything saying that the wheels are going to fall off yet. There will be game script problems in certain games. He is not a pass catcher. If they get down, they might not be able to run the ball the same way. And there is an offensive.

coordinator change. So there's some variables and I'm not in love with them. But he's an outlier that I, you know, bet against Derek Henry at your own wrist. Yeah, I mean, and just to throw the math out there, I mean, he had more than double the carries of Alvin Kamara and finished behind him in fantasy. So you ran for 2,000 yards. You had more touchdowns than Alvin Kamara on the ground. You had more than double the total carries. You finished behind him in fantasy. So when you talk about drafting past catchers in this spot,