Ice & Fire Picks + Saquon Fears, Slimy Leaguemates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/6

The pace he was on last year, what they do with the offense and the physical talent. I guess I'm buying the hype. Yeah. To add on to that wide receiver to the 19 wide receivers with top 36 finishes, 12 of them finishing better the next season. Five of those 19 were injured the next year. So like only two actually got worse. One of those two was Mike Evans, who only got worse because his rookie season was unbelievable. He still had a great year.

When a rookie wide receiver is good, they are just really good. My biggest question here, Andy, because we all had made that change for CD Lamb with the opportunities he's getting with Mari Cooper out and those things. But you said the 405, the wide receiver 15, that ADP is not done. He goes on an escalator to the clouds.

right now. And at what point... Is it not worth it? At what point is because it will not shock me. You get into late August when people are having their redraft leagues going off and having their drafts. Middle of the third round won't surprise me in the slightest for what is happening with C.D. Lamb. All the names I gave you before, the Keenan, Alan Robinson, A.J. Brown, Evans, Godwin, Julio, McLaren. Those are all wide receivers going ahead of Lamb.

which is why I like him at his ADP right now because you get sealing that none of them have after those players go. If you put C.D. Lamb in the top of the third round and you have some of those players I just named available after, that's going to make it more difficult because the hype can go too far where you're drafting him where he has to have a season that far outpaces what even the, you know, the sports books would say are probable. And at that point in time, you just have...

probably too much room to lose on the transaction. Yeah, if you draft the wide receiver five as the wide receiver five, yeah, I mean, that's great. So it's a win, but you're not gaining anything over, you know, like you are right now with drafting CD. Okay, so let's say he, his ADP keeps going up. And I know you listed these players of, you're doubtful of the ceiling, but when you're in the draft, are you willing to draft CD Lamb over Mike Evans? Yes.

over Alan Robinson. Yeah. Over Terry. Yes. Okay. So that would put him in the middle of the third. So it seems like that ADP is your- You can stop it right there. Okay. Yeah. And the nice thing is, is where he's going now, you know, there's a pretty decent chance. And Jason's done it a bunch of times this off season where you end up with two top-tier running bags and then you end up with C.D. Lamb is your second wide receiver. And you are just probably, you know, you just get everything you want.

from that upside. You shut the computer and you log off. Throw the deuses up. Don't even worry about it. You definitely win your championship at the draft. I've always said you always win your championship on draft day only. And when you go through four rounds. Right. Four rounds log off. Go go to fancychamps.com. Buy your trophy right now. Yeah. Jason, you do have a second year wide receiver as well as your fire pick. I didn't realize you were putting him here.

This is a big step for you and Brandon. It is a big step for me and Brandon. Mr. Ayukin. Iyukin. Brandon Ayuk is my breakout candidate. It was really tough between Brandon Ayukin and. Debo, Samuel. Got it. No, no, that one was rather easy. No, but Hawkinson was.

You know, I definitely think he has a breakout year this year as well. But Brandon Ayyuk, everything you just said about wide receiver 2s that finish with the top 36 rookie season holds true for also Brandon Ayuk. Because last year he did. And here's the thing about Brandon Ayukes is that he was drafted to be great, right? Debo Samuel, second rounder, Brandon Ayuk a first rounder, comes in and dominates. He had a stretch of games where he was.

He wasn't even outside the top 24 at wide receiver. He was consistent. He was excellent. And a lot of excuses are made about, well, he did this with Debo Samuel injured. He did this with George Kittle injured. That's a little overblown. Like Debo Samuel was there for most of those games. And if you look at the comparison between Debo Samuel and Brandon Ayyuk, Debo Samuel played seven games last year. He only had two games inside the top 4D.

And one of those games was when, ironically, Brandon Ayuk didn't play. Brandon Ayuk was really, really solid, including the games that Debo was active in. Some of those games, you look at the end of the year when Debo and Samuel, Debo and Brandon Ayuk were active. Thomas and Jefferson. You're talking about 16 targets, 13 targets for Brandon Ayuk as a rookie. Now he's coming into that second year breakout.

He's lighting it up in camp. All the reports are good. And here's something, I wanted to bring this to light because a couple industry stalwarts, awesome guys out there. Rich Rebar and J.J. Zacharisen, they've both done independent studies this year looking at breakouts. And I want to give a congratulations to the royal we of fantasy football players and the importance of ADP because they took two different approaches at looking at.

these breakout wide receivers, one was looking at a certain, you know, ranking, end of year finish, and then JJ was looking at outscoring projected fantasy points at ADP, and how do you find these breakouts? And one of the conclusions that both of them came to that was so cool is that when you have these nebulous situations, the wide receiver won, the guy who was drafted first in fantasy ADP,

is almost always the right pick, which is, you know, you want to go, well, I'll take the value. I'll just take the one going a couple rounds later. But we get it right. We actually, as a fantasy community, we peg the right guy, and Brandon Ayyuk is the guy who's being drafted as the breakout on that team. When you really break it down as far as talent.

opportunity, historical data on wide receiver 2's historical data on ADP, on breakout age. Everything aligns outside of having, you know, a rookie quarterback, which I assume he's going to have a rookie quarterback, for Brandon Ayyuk to really explode this year. And the only argument against him, literally the only thing I could think is that, well, he did it without these guys on the field or he was a, you know,

But lots of players have opportunity they don't seize. He did it, period. You can make arguments, well, the reason that, you know, this team won the Super Bowl is because they didn't deal with injuries. Yeah, that's life. But they won the Super Bowl. He succeeded with the opportunity given to him. We know he was talented. That's why he was a first-round draft pick. He did it in fantasy. He's young. He's studly, and he's dominating in camp. I think he has a breakout season. Better than last year? Yes, yes. I think he takes a...

Major step up this year and coming into next year is one of those highly sought after, you know, first several round wide receiver picks. I think he's, you know, in his range of outcomes is a wide receiver one to me. Okay. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see. I think, I don't think people are trying to take away from him pointing out the fact that he had all that opportunity. He deserves credit for what he did. But he, the question is, will he have the same opportunity?

with those guys not on the field. And I like how you included that poor game that Devo played one snap and left. I think he can have even more opportunity this season that he did last year. You know, he's just a really talented wide receiver. And sometimes the film part doesn't come into, you know, the equation as much as the analytics. You know,

Pro football focus. Only two wide receivers graded at 90 plus percent at every single level of the field. And that was Chris Godwin and rookie Brandon Ayuk. He's just really good. Great, great head coach who knows how to use his players the right way? Mike, who is your fire pick? So my fire pick, those of us who really caped and stand for Clyde Edwards Aller last year.

number one pick for the Kansas City Chief's rookie running back. Those of us who really caped for him, we had to kind of descend into the earth. We had to hide out for a little bit because... Like the mole people? Yeah, I was going to go to the Morlocks. Okay. But yeah, we had to kind of hide the face a little bit because the expectation of the hype was not truly met from what we were hoping, fantasy-wise, for Clyde Edwards O'Lear.

But now he is going in the third round, and I want to point out some things that actually happened. Yes, the final fantasy finish wasn't what you were hoping for. But he actually saw a solid amount of work for a rookie running back. He had the 16th most touches at the running back position. He missed three games. He had 1,100 yards from scrimmage. That's very solid since the year 2000.

Only 16 rookie running backs have seen 180 plus attempts and 50 plus targets, which is, that's what Clyde saw in this offense last year. He was the running back nine through week 11. He was a top 10 guy. He got hurt the following week, and in that time span before he had gotten hurt, he only busted once. Yes, he wasn't giving you the ceiling games that you're hoping for, but here is why. Touchdown regression, positive touchdown regression.

Clyde Edwards scored a touchdown every 43 touches. And like I said, he was 16, he saw the 16. Why didn't he score more? He should have. Yeah, really would have. Well, because he wouldn't be on this show then. Oh, he was, he couldn't be the ice player. Pandering. Yes. So every 43 touches, that's extremely bad. That's not just, well, there's a bad. That's, that's, that's very poor. Not good.

The average of the running backs who are the top 15, the most touches in the league, they averaged a touchdown every 25 touches. So scoring at a much higher rate than poor Clyde Edwards-A-Layer. Last year he had nine carries inside the five that only turned into one touchdown. I believe that there is an opportunity for more, for more carries inside the five for Clyde while he's not a rookie, you know, get some more work. And you have the chance that

Possibly the Kansas City Chiefs aren't as throw heavy inside the five zone, which Patrick Mahomes is great there. But last year, Patrick Mahomes saw an average of 1.3 passing attempts inside the five. In 2019, that was under one. It's like the career fluctuates for Patrick Mahomes. He's only 22 years old. And I think that he is producing the opportunity for an extreme value pick.

He could still be a top 10 running back, in my opinion, as the primary guy. Yes, Darrell Williams, the report came out. He's going to see, or he's seeing about 30 to 35% of the work with the first team. That's to be expected for... Was it the footcast that you and I were talking about? Yeah, yesterday we were talking about this. And I told you, my fear is that he'll be a between the 20s guy. Yes. You know, that Darrell will get all the, you know, inside the five work and that those touchdown totals will be hard because he doesn't break away, right? Clyde doesn't... Yes, he, Clyde is not...

A top speed guy. His athletic profile is not like a top tier type of thing, even though he is, he is shifty. That's my only fear. But he doesn't have the breakway speed. And if that is your fear and that actually does happen, then Clyde, to me, is worth his ADP. Okay. His ceiling definitely goes away of him crashing the party and ending up as a top five running back because he hits that crazy, like a crazy Westbrook.

rushing touchdown total or a Shady McCoy, which, to be fair to those cops, Andy Reid is the one who himself compared Clyde Edwards-Alaher to Brian Westbrook. He sees that in what Clyde Edwards-A-Layer could possibly become. So in the third round, I am very in on the draft price for Clyde Edwards-A-Layer. I... Did you get shaky at all with the Darrell Williams report, Jason? No, not in the slightest. I...

You are struggling over there, Frogman. Yeah, I am struggling over here more than you guys know. We all know. Oh, no. No, you don't. In fact, it's story time with Jason. No, it's story time with Jason now that we're at the end of the show. Oh, my goodness. We have a story time? Yeah, we have a story time. Is that a drop? Do we have that drop? I think we might have had. At one time, but we can look that up. All right, so here's the story. I have to give blood.

in about 45 minutes. Oh, but you're thinking about it? That's one of your favorite things. That's one of my absolute. I just love giving blood. It's just great. I don't ever pass out or have a fear of it at all. So in order to help that, I've been pounding water since yesterday. I want to be hydrated. Okay. Have some nice big veins. Easy to get, get in, get out. Oh, and you asked me before the show. I asked Andy before the show is about 8 a.m.