Ice & Fire Picks + Saquon Fears, Slimy Leaguemates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/6

A little bit. Not premium gas. No, no, this is, this is regular unleaded. This is like 85. Whoa. You know, like you go and you get the cheap stuff. It's 87. I didn't know this. I mean, I was just, I was letting you go on. No, this is, this is. I hope you know what you're talking about. Me too. Me too, sure. If you put ice on that 85, it won't start on fire. In, in addition to having to have the same touches, he would also have to have the kind of receiving efficiency he had last year's. Number one.

at nine and a half yards per reception. But that is not a sticky stat and that is easily skewed on only 41 receptions. We watched the film. His three longest receptions were on broken plays in his final three games. The first half of the season, it was a very pedestrian, 6.6 yards per catch, no more than 36 receiving yards in a game. You need the context of how fantasy points came. And he needs to improve as a touchdown score.

The leading touchdown rusher last year was Jordan Howard, who wasn't on the team most of the season. He's a 200-pound running back who was very involved in the past game, and now they brought in Jalen Wattle. They brought in Will Fuller. They're not going to just be dumping it off in addition to all that.

The Dolphins offensive line is one of the absolute worst in the league. That is easily on both sides of the ball. Their biggest hole, they're currently ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus, 2021 rankings. And if you need any more ice on the party, we're usually not good at fifth round running backs. Usually, we talked about the bust rate earlier. Like every. The Royal fantasy football player, the Royal We, the fifth round.

Usually the wide receivers are far more hits, far less busts than running backs in that range. I chose Edmonds over Gaskin yesterday in our mock draft, which was the first time I've had to stare down that decision. And I didn't necessarily know why, but I have felt hesitancy with Miles Gaskin. So, I mean, he makes some strong points. It's hard because he was so good, but the team, the change, all the things you talked about.

It does persuade me to let other people look at the gasman. Yeah, I mean, he's a seventh round pick that absolutely performed admirably last year when they needed him. That's how I view gascon. And that's not to say like, oh, he's not going to get carries or never going to be a top 24 running back. No, he'll be usable. You could put him in your flex, but he's not maximizing your draft pick at the draft. And that's why look elsewhere.

Okay. All right, Mike, you have to add your ice player to the list. Let me add some ice to that gasoline, as they say. As mama always said. My ice player for this season is the Vikings wide receiver, Adam Thielen, and this, it hurts. I don't like it. Because Adam Thielen has been a fantasy superstar. Thank you, yes. One more time.

Just afraid we meant I hear it again. When he broke out, everyone was hooked on a Thielen. It was great. It was a sensational story. His rise from essentially nowhere of relevance, working all the way up. To millions of dollars. To getting the bag being a very productive wide receiver. But here's the problem with Adam Thielen. Things changed. And Adam Thielen to sustain being a high-level wide receiver.

has to score an overabundance of receiving touchdowns. Last year, weeks one through nine, Adam Thielen was still the number one man for the Minnesota Vikings. He was pulling in a 29% target share. I'm sorry, we have to pause for just a moment. Apparently we have a responsibility to the people. Apparently you threw a productful in there. Oh, did I? Yes.

A productful season. I mean, even Jason caught that one. Oh, man, productful. What an idiot. Proceed. I felt that was on a roll. And also, I have now coined the word productful. Yes. Oh, wonderful. Definition full of production. Right. Oh, I get it. I see it. It was right there. Yeah, now I understand. You know what I mean when I'm saying a word. It's a real word. That's what I've been saying for years, right? And I'm on your side. Okay.

So his very productive season, Weeks 1 through 9, Adam Thielen had a 29% target share. That is an extreme. That's why it is absolute elite top tier when it comes to targets here, while Justin Jefferson, the rookie in that time was seeing 22%. What happens after that? Justin Jefferson breaks out and goes on the tear and ends up having the best rookie wide receiver season of all time. Justin Jefferson shifts.

for weeks 10 through 17 to the 29% target share, and Adam Thielen drops to an 18% target share. That is not going to get it done over the long term. Yes, over that time, Adam Thielen was still fine for fantasy football because he was scoring touchdowns on a weekly basis. That's the fantasy argument we would make with a drop target share. We'd be like, well, the only way he's going to be okay now is if he scores a ton. Yes, but now let's remind people who Adam Thielen is at this point.

That was his year 30. Not 30th year in the NFL, but he is a long-term player, but he was 30 years old. Since the year 2000, we have only seen. It's a lot of productive vacation. Since the year 2000, we have only seen nine players playing in their age 30 season with 10 or more touchdowns. In fact, Adam Thielen had the third most touchdowns in that time span. Oh, at age 30? At age 30. Like, that's how great the season was.

The next year, all of those wide receivers, those nine players, here's what happened to them. Marvin Harrison held his value. Shocker, Marvin Harrison, Hall of Fame player, playing with Hall of Fame quarterback, still held on. Randy Moss still held on, but he went from 23 touchdowns down to 12. 23 touchdowns. Yeah, but again, Hall of Fame wide receiver, first ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver playing with first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback.

Harrison and Moss, they were the only players that repeated double-digit touchdowns in that time. And all the other guys, they saw a substantial drop. We're talking six to seven touchdowns on average fewer than they pulled in when they were 30 years old. Look what happened with Captain Kurt Cousins. He hit a 6.8% touchdown rate. He threw 35 touchdowns. That's the most in his entire career. Up until that point, Kurt Cousins was averaging a 5%

touchdown rate. So 5% of his passing attempts turned into touchdowns, and he averaged about 27 touchdowns. So Kirk, Adam Thielen, were huge benefactors of the outrageous offensive output that we saw coming from the COVID-shortened training camp. And it happened across the entire season. So if Kirk sees the natural regression that I'm projecting he's going to see, if Adam Thielen.

sees the natural touchdown regression that I'm projecting is going to see. You're going to be really disappointed that you took him as your wide receiver too. Yeah, and the truth is I do think that the passing game for the Minnesota Vikings takes a step backwards as the defense takes a very large step forward.

He's going to be 31 this year. There's a lot of... The problem that I have with the argument, the reason that I don't like calling him an ice, even though I get it. I get all these arguments. I agree with all of the arguments you said is just the simple fact that last year when we watched Adam Thieland at the goal line, man alive. He made every single DB, turned their backs on him, fall over, and he was just got...

just got beautifully open in the end zone, and that's how a lot of those touchdowns seem to come. So there wasn't film that made me doubt him. He's still great. I believe Adam Thielen is still good, but kind of an odds game. Yeah, exactly. You're just playing the odds. The passing game doesn't have to take a step back because the defense gets better either. Like we use that refrain a lot, but that's not a, it's not like you have a hundred.

It's not a video game where you have 100 points to distribute. And if the defense gets five extra, the passing game goes down five. But he did throw a ton of touchdowns. And like a Matt Ryan season, you do see, you know, you're going to see it bounce back and forth. Plus, I don't know if he can pass it through the Plexiglass. Oh, that's a good point when he's in the huddle. I mean, you should use that for your O line, maybe, because that would protect you. It will be interesting. If it's a little box, that'll be tough. Also.

We do have an update. I went to Urban Dictionary.com. Oh, the most reliable source for words. But, and I'm not making this up, but productive. Definition. When you're so productive, you start creating your own words for how much you're getting done. Okay. As in Jeanette worked so hard today, she thought productful was a word. That's good. All right.

Well, it does make me a little bit sad if the sun sets on Adam Thielen because he's a great fantasy asset. Yes. But, you know. But the sun sets on everybody. It does. All right. We're going to shift now to our breakout fire picks. And I am going to kind of give a butt tap to a player that is, you know, when Jason said, we, right? We, the fantasy player. C.D. Lamb is the pick here. Cedarian, Lamb.

This is his birth name. Here is why I think you should draft C.D. Lamb like Jason did in yesterday's mock draft. His current average draft position is the 405. That puts him as the wide receiver 15 off the board. That's pretty high. Which is pretty high. We've talked a lot about, you know, there's a number of second year breakout potential wide receivers.

But the reason that I want to bet on C.D. Lamb is because I want the opportunity to draft a player that could win my league for me in the fourth round. And C.D. Lamb represents that. I want to give you a little bit of a statistical reason why players like this are so valuable for fantasy football. He had a great rookie season. I think people forget that because Jefferson was out there with like 88 and 1,4007.

CD Lamb was out there with no quarterback and put up 74 for 935 and 5. That is one of the better rookie seasons in the last decade. That's in the category where, you know, Keenan, Beckham, Benjamin, Cooper, Thomas Jefferson, Lamb, those are the best rookie seasons. Thomas Jefferson did it? That's all I could hear. I did say Thomas Jefferson. He was an incredible wide receiver. Founding father and wide receiver extraordinaire.

That's cool. Thomas Jefferson's coming home. So outside of the Kelvin Benjamin inclusion there and Thomas Jefferson, everyone else has been a wide receiver one, which is how I see C.D. Lamb with really high upside potential. There are 19 rookie wide receivers with top 36 seasons, which is what Lamb did. Pay attention to this because it's also.

It's also an argument for my next one. Go on. Okay. Yeah, this is incredible. So when you look back over the rookie wide receivers that had top 36 seasons, there have been 19 of them since 2014. 12 of the 19 improved the next year, okay? So there's your majority improvement. Nine of those 12 became elite.

wide receiver options. That is what you're hoping for. That is what you're looking for. The Draft King Sportsbook line on CD Lam's season is 81 for 1050 and 6. Okay. So going to Elite tack a couple hundred yards and a couple touchdowns onto that number. I think you're going to be super happy with a...

85 for 12, 1,300, and 8. And I think that's super reasonable for Lamb. And he could go nuclear with Dak in this offense. He has the physical talent and ability that very, very few receivers have. And when you're drafting other players around that range, you don't get sealing, okay? You want to draft Keenan Allen. You don't get sealing like Cady Lamb. Alan Robinson, you certainly don't.

I don't think you get it with A.J. Brown with Julio there in Tennessee and the passing offense. I don't think you get it with Mike Evans, with Godwin there, and with A.J. Brown, who we like is a late round draft. Antonio Brown. What did I say? AJ. Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah, Antonio Brown. And I don't think you necessarily get that with Terry McLaurin just with what they're doing and some of the question marks. I don't think top five is in the cards for any of those players outside of C.D. Lamb. So that's why I would, I'm going to put him into that category because Dak.