Top 10 Countdown + Upside Offenses

a little crazy, it's also the truth. It's very hard to do that. You can't find something he did wrong. You can only find things that he did so incredibly well that they are going to be very difficult to replicate. And while it might sound silly to say that that's his biggest negative, it really, really is. Because you don't see people with over a 30% target market share among the team. He's well over last season, over 50%.

Wide receiver market share, those things are astronomically high. Now, he will still be a huge target hog. But in order to, if he were to do that, let's just say if he does that back-to-back seasons, I think that would be the first time in history. So my biggest worry with Hopkins is simply, can he possibly replicate this? I've talked about how Deshaun Watson's touchdown percentage is 100% not replicatable, but...

He also didn't have Watkins for the whole season. He's presumably going to have him. You know, I worry a little bit about Hopkins. I don't, I have Julio ahead of Hopkins. Really? I do. I firmly think that I would rather have O'Dell Beckham Jr. and Julio and Antonio Brown more than Hopkins in a redraft or keeper league. But that's not to say I don't. I mean, people are reacting very strongly to the year that he had. I mean, Hopkins was four in 2015, had the really bad year with.

and then in 2017 last year number one i've seen the reaction it's so strong in dynasty leagues he goes number one frequently so i do think that reaction's too strong i mean there's no reason you cannot and this is one of those things as a fantasy owner you have to be willing and able to do is what jason's doing and say look what has happened isn't guaranteed to happen again look people could have had that approach with matt ryan i think

The biggest negative for Matt Ryan two years ago was that there was no negative about Matt Ryan two years ago, right? It's the same argument. And, well, Hopkins can be great and still regress. That's the point I think that Jason's making there is he could have a 22% market share, a 25% and still be great. Still be everything that they need and everything they want. But Will Fuller's health, Deshaunson's efficiency, those are still question marks. I don't think you should have any fear as a fantasy owner if you decide to plant your flag on Julio Jones.

or, you know, O'Dell Buckham Jr. ahead of Hopkins. So I do love Hopkins. I think he's going to be great. I mean, where he's going. But the numbers were incredible. Yeah, where he's going right now, like you said, we have him at eight. He is the consensus eight in an average draft position. You might be able to grab a running back there. And then, you know, I've seen O'Dell Beckham and Julio drop into that third round the beginning or the beginning of the second round where you could grab one of those guys with a great running back.

Like Melvin Gordon. Like Melvin. Number seven. Melvin Gordon number seven. Sorry, Jason. No, no. The announcer talked right over him, but you have to get the number in there or the people that don't understand. Yeah, I know. It's tough. It's tough in the streets. Melvin Gordon. Gordon's going one pick after DeAndre Hopkins in most drafts. Now, we have them at seven. We've got them to pick ahead. If you're staring down those two players, are you leaning Gordon most often? But I didn't listen. You, Melvin Gordon and who?

Hopkins. Oh, yeah, I would go Melvin Gordon. I would go Melvin Gordon over those other than Antonio Brown, when it is a solid, rock, solid, all-star, you know, top five potential running back versus one of those wide receivers. I'm going with the running back right now. That's something that I think looking at last year at the inconsistency versus consistency, I'm pretty much a first-round running back.

Gordon was seventh in fantasy in 2016, fifth and 2017. Look, you get dirty looks from Mike when we talk about Melvin Gordon oftentimes because of some inefficiencies in his numbers. But I am a major, major Melvin Gordon fan this year. I have him higher than seven overall, and I think he's going to be great. This is the thing. We were talking before the show about the Chargers. They were not a good, they were a great offense last year. A great offense. I believe they were.

fourth in the NFL in yards per game, something close to that. And this is a team that, like, you know, the question marks were there last year. They probably should have made the playoffs. You had that crazy play, I think it was, by Boyd, that got the bills in instead of the Chargers. This is a great team, and he is their workhorse. So I love him. Yeah, I was talking with Evan Silva on another podcast recently. We were talking about Bold Predictions, and I had the Chargers.

down. I don't think I actually got to this on the episode, but I had them making a Super Bowl run. I think they are legitimately a great team. And look, if you look at the efficiency metrics of Melvin Gordon, just about any which way you slice it, he's been not that great. I will grant that because I'm a big Melvin Gordon supporter. He hasn't been that great, but their offensive line, you know, they haven't opened up.

great holes for him. He has been breaking tackles and, you know, really doing quality work as a running back. Obviously, that's how he finished that way. The second half of last season, he broke 24 tackles, which was tied for most in the NFL. So while you say, oh, he's inefficient, that doesn't mean he's a bad running back. He's a very good running back, and he gets so much work. There's no one on that team that's really going to come in and say, hey, I'm taking over. Sorry, Austin Echler.

Yeah, no doubt about it. Let's move on. Number six. Ezekiel Elliott at number six. Some may consider that a travesty. In which direction? In the direction that we have them too low. Oh, okay. Gotcha. We have him at six. The average drop position is four overall right now. He was the RB 10 and he played 10 games. Yeah, he's. By that logic, he'll be the RB 16 this year. If you assume he could play 16, maybe he only gets one game in. Oh, number one running back.

That'll be a nice week. He was the second best running back in 2016 last year. Like I said, number 10, despite 10 games played. I think that people might be surprised that we have, you know, we have Alvin Camara at 5. I'll just bring it up. I don't. I know you don't. I mean, this is, you know, it's my fault. It's entirely my fault. I would never take Alvin Camara over Ezekiel Elliott, not even at a full PPR league because Ezekiel Elliott is.

He's incredible great running back behind a still great offensive line. And yeah, they're going to stack the box. But I don't think it's going to matter. I mean, Leonard Four Nett last year going into the season. Yeah, but that was a good. There's a point. That was a good team. And Brooks, what's your win total for the Cowboys this year? Brooks is the Dallas Cowboys fan. Truther. Six. Six wins. You know, we saw this.

Many times. You can't run the ball the way you want to run the ball if you're losing. And I'm not saying Dallas is going down the drain. They could absolutely have a bounce back year, DAC could bounce back. Zeke is obviously a top five talent in the NFL at the position. They've got to find their past catchers. But if they struggle, like I have no doubt that New Orleans is going to be great. I think New Orleans is a locked-in playoff team. I don't feel that way about Dallas. So I feel like there are some holes.

And invest, you know me, I like to invest in running backs on winning teams. So when it's a heads-up decision in half-point or full-point leagues, it's Alvin Camara for me. If it's a standard league, I'm going Zeke. Whenever a guy has the amount of guaranteed volume that Zeke has, along with the production history.

I am willing to completely say, it's like, you know, for a while the Vikings weren't good, but you took Adrian Peterson because he's freaking Adrian Peterson. Over the last three years, there's not even regular Adrian Peterson. Over the last three. That's freaking Adrian Peterson. You're darn right. I mean, that was when he was AP all day. Or as people would get mad at me as saying, AD all day. AP still works, people. It's his initials. Anyways, Ezekiel Elliott has been, if you look at finishes on a weekly basis.

of games started. Finishing as a running back one, as in the top 12, he's the number one. He's ahead of Levi-on-Bel, ahead of Camara. If you look at finishing as an RB 1 or 2 over that time frame, and this is just percentage base, I realize Camara hasn't played that length of time. He's still the number one over Levy on Bell. 96% of his games.

He's a running back one or two, and 76% of the time he's a running back one. If you have, if you're staring down, maybe Camara went ahead of you. If you're staring down Zeke and you're worried about the quality of his team, I'm just saying like, I'm not. That's not going to look, but I'm bringing it up because I'm talking about how you decide between the guys five and six. Sure. And for me, I'll go wrong. This always happens when you do countdowns is you have to decide between two players. And so I'm choosing, I mean,

Camara, we'll just move on. Sure. Number five. Look, last year, this run that he had from week seven through 13 is unparalleled. 119143-1 in fantasy finishes at the running back position. And then, you know, oh, he took a week off with the concussion and came back for a 10-21-3 finish to the year. He is everything to that offense. And even more with Mark Ingram out. So I love Alvin Camer. Like I said,

If you just took, this is crazy, if you just took his receiving stats, he would have been the wide receiver 21 by himself. Just the receiving stats. And then you get all of the running back ability. There is some regression that's built in. I think it gets compensated for by volume. And I would, I just slightly prefer Camara over Ezekieli. You don't go wrong either way. There's no real reason to fight back and forth. Look, while I want desperately desire.

to bring up how stupid you are, because that's what best friends do. I can't. And then I'll let the foot clan in on a little insight here. I had, when I statted everybody out, we stat out every team out, top to bottom, players that, you know, you don't see on our rankings. We've got the whole league statted out. And when I finished, do you want to know where Alvin Camara was? He was my running back three ahead of Ezekiel Elliott.

When I statted everybody out, I had him ahead. So I don't blame you for saying, no, you go with Camara. I just literally the way that I draft, I think I can't get myself because of volume guarantee to take. So I literally had to fudge Camara's stats down a little bit from what I believe he'll do just so that my rankings appeared the truth of how I would draft. That's fair. Yeah, I mean, I am the reason he is.

Where he is. You have him at four. That is Zeke. And then Mike has him at five. I've got Camara up at three. Where do you have Zeke? I haven't at six. Yeah, it's disgusting. Well, I have Gurley Bell, Camara, Johnson, Gordon. So you have Gordon above Zeke. I do. Wow. All right. I mean, they're a much better team this season. I will give you that. And he does have guaranteed volume. But I just don't. I understand.

I understand. That's not a popular opinion. But you just said you'd take Julio Jones over DeAndre Hopkins. And it's a similar situation for me on that front. Here's the thing. Whenever you talk about the top 10 list, you're squabbling over little things because we all like all of these guys. Let's not squabble over number four. Number four.

You're supposed to say what is. Little known player, Antonio Brown. Yeah, there's no squabbling here. Go ahead and read. You found a stat on Antonio Brown. This is my favorite stat. I couldn't believe it. Brooks actually found this. And when I looked this up, I'll tell you, Brooks. I had to. Bigrez is a big fan. I had to re-added a number of times to make sure. Yeah. No, I literally saw this and I went, that can't be true. And I went and I vetted it. And I was like,

Oh my gosh, this is unbelievable. So listen, in 2017, there was not a single player in the NFL who reached 116 receptions, nor was there a single player in the NFL who reached 1,589 receiving yards, okay? 69. 69. 169 receiving yards. Thank you. Thank you, Brooks. No player reached either of those plateaus last season. Antonio Brown.

Those are the numbers he has averaged, averaged 116 receptions, 1,569 receiving yards over the past five seasons, not to mention, he's averaged 10 touchdowns. I mean, he is, when I said in the Minneapolis live show, one of my topics was saddle a stud. You have to have one of those studs. I said it then. A stud is a running back. Except. Or is Antonio Brown. He is.

an unfathomable stud. If you took him with the first pick over overall, that's fine. That's 100% fine. Number three. He's back. David Johnson comes in it. Number three. Oh, man. I miss Mike.