Fantasy Football - Dynasty Trade Targets + Rebuild vs. Contending? - Podcast for 5/13

pedigree. I do. I liked him as a prospect. He's got the avenue with Debo gone and Brandon and I. You currently injured. He's on a good 10 win upside team. But let's look at how he actually played. You can't get on his case for a slow rookie season. He got shot. He did. He got shot in the chest. He got shot through. And it wasn't a late night like, you know, oh, he's going out to the clubs. What do you expect for in the morning? This was just a robbery. out in the daylight where he should have died and he got lucky he didn't even get on the wheel we he didn't even get on the field until week seven just just just what's just so wild to get lower if you're shot once does it lower your chance of ever being shot again has to well like lightning yeah yeah i'm just saying like statistically yeah well if you got struck by lightning ones wouldn't you feel a little more worried about it a second time well it never strikes twice wow that's true

It's not. I'm just wondering if he's gotten his possible shooting out of the way. Maybe he, of course, has because I promise you, if you've been shot, you are more cautious about getting shot. That's just my guess. Oh, you haven't had yours yet? I'm not leaving. I don't know if you guys even remember the last two games of the year with Ricky Pearsall, eight for 141 and a touchdown on 10 targets in week 17 against Detroit. and six for a very nice 69 and a touchdown on eight targets against Arizona. I don't remember it being that good. Yeah, well, he had three top 15 finishes, all with more than 15 fantasy points in the second half of the season. He is one of only 19 wide receivers in the last decade with that. And if you look at the list of players, I mean, they're almost all stars. The three games of... Three games of 15.

or more points in the second half of their rookie season. Tyree Kill, J. Schuster, Debo, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ayuk, Ah, Amin Ra. I mean, the list is great. All of them, literally all of them, except for Christian Watson with injuries. And Brandon Ayuk in the doghouse, if you remember that, had top 24 seasons the next year. So it's just one of those things where I look at his situation says he's way undervalued. And I think his talent says people, people look at his rookie season like it was a failure. But dude. got shot. Yeah. I don't know if I think people look at it as a failure. I think they look at it as almost lost. Sure. Almost more just like we didn't. Maybe they didn't, you know, but it's impacting. Those numbers at the end of the year. People forget the end of the year. That's for sure. People are out of the playoffs. They didn't even pay attention. If you're not playing in the playoffs with Ricky Pierce on your team, you miss those numbers. Those are good to bring forward because.

He didn't have the opportunity in the first half of the year to prove himself. Right. And then he was playing behind, you know, Iyuk and Debo and in his rookie season. So I also just saw a clip, literally, thank you, Jenangs. I saw a clip today of Brock Purdy talking up Pierceall and how he loves, how he stays late. He runs routes with him after practice. He's always in the right spot. And I don't know. Why is Purdy running around? They're busted. And they're going golfing early in the morning. Oh, golf near dude. Kind of like breakfast. Golf is like breakfast to you? Well, you get up early. You're better at breakfast. I'm way better at breakfast. All right, Mike, who do you got? You want to trade away or a trade for? I'll just give you my trade for. Trading for running backs in Dynasty is tough because running backs can expire quickly. And you're like, oh, man, I just gave up all these assets to go get some guy who I'm.

who was good on my team for a year. But the name I want to throw out because I think that he is undervalued on the market compared to what he has done and what his age is at where he can still give you multiple years. That is Kenneth Walker, aka Ken Bone Walker, and I'll get the age out of the way right away here. He's 24.6. Don't necessarily love that. But you know who's going in first round rookie drafts right now? RJ Harvey. Who Ken Walker is four months older then. So if you're hot and bothered by RJ Harvey, then you don't need to worry about the age of Kenneth Walker. He's going into the contract year. We saw the huge uptick in passing game. That is such a difference maker, where Ken Walker was more of just those first couple years. He's the grinder, giving you big plays. But we got him in on the passing work. And it was a huge deal. And talk about talent.

among 46 running backs who had 100 or more carries. He's number one in force missed tackle rate. So while the yards per carry of last year it was, it was bad. It was under four. He's doing everything he can. And last year, the Seattle offensive line, Pro Football Focus, had that line ranked at 31st. And Seattle has done some things this year to try to address that. and make that line stronger. So I just think this is a running back who has showed us he can be a home run hitter. If he truly is getting more involved in the passing game, like does that stick? I think it's a fair question, but at least we saw it. And then the new OC already coming in and at least giving us coach speak that he is enamored and talking up Kenneth Walker, mentioning him by name frequently. So this, to me, Ken Walker should be able to give you, he'll get a second contract from somebody.

So this is a three-year player at the running back position, maybe even more, who I don't think is being priced in dynasty like other guys. I might be the person that isn't pricing him that way. To me, it's the risk factor that factors into his dynasty value to me where it's like, I can see both sides. I can see him having a great career year and getting a great second contract. I can also see him. being injured dealing with injury or just being marginalized on this offense and suddenly that second contract is a Madison contract and I don't care about him so I'm sure and I'm not I'm just on the other side of that where maybe my fatigue has run like the Ken Walker breakout experience hasn't happened to the point where you know I'm satisfied it doesn't mean that's not in him that that's not he's not capable of that kind of a season he's got every incentive in the world being on this roster

But maybe I'm more risk-averse here with Walker if I was going to... But that's what I mean of the market price. Like this... Like, I'm not trading a first-round pick for it. It is... It is not universally locked in that Ken Walker is... Right. Yeah, that's why... That people love it. Right, no. Where, like, there's other running backs who will just... They will be... The price will be so catastrophically high for you to go acquire that running back. To get that possible value. You have to... You have to take some risks in your trades. or then you're just buying people at the absolute ceiling. Did you have any thoughts on Ken Walker, Jay? No, I mean, I believe it is a risky pick with giant upside. So, I mean, it's, if you believe in Ken Walker, I know Mike obviously does, then this is the perfect time to go trade for a guy that you, if you, if Ken Walker comes out and has a great year, everything Mike said will be.

Right, and you will have stolen him at a great value. But it is risky because... Sure. You can go both directions. Yeah, it really can. I am very curious. We'll take a break. We'll come back with our tradeaway candidates. And I'll mention mine. And I want to know if you'd rather have Ken Walker or the guy I mentioned. All right. My tradeaway candidate is a touchdown expert, extraordinary. It's James Cook running back for the Buffalo Bills, who is 25.6 years old. Ken Walker was, what, 24.8? 24.6. 24.6. So it was obviously a humongous year for James Cook. I had him on my dynasty roster. This name is going to be perfect to bring out because I will just tell you exactly what I traded him for. I am rebuilding. I was nearly desperate to cash in on the season that James Cook had.

because I just find it to be very, very difficult for him to repeat that value. I think he's a really good player. You can be a really good player and not score 16 touchdown. You mean the player who had fewer opportunities per game, lower snap percentage, and managed to score more points? Yeah, I mean, he had two touchdowns the previous two years on the ground, and he was a really good player then, too. That didn't change. He was outstanding last year, a top 10 running back. But I was desperate in Dynasty to trade him away. I traded him away for Chuba Hubbard and draft picks, draft capital. And so, and I think I got a couple seconds. Now, I'm a rebuilding team. That was fine for me. I was content with that because I feel like Chuba could have just as good of a year as James Cook this year. And he already has a contract going into the future. That's part of it, too. James Cook is here threatening holdouts or I don't know if I'm going to hold out or I'm going to hold in or I want to get paid $14 million a year.

Look, I watched this team a lot last year. We all did. It was a great football team, a great offense. They were not afraid to use multiple running backs. Ray Davis, really good running back. Ty Johnson saw a lot of third downs and pass targets. James Cook is not scoring 16 times on the ground this year again. It's just not going to happen. And so from a dynasty perspective, this is just the moment. This is your moment to go out there and get top 10 value for a guy that probably settles into RB2. category. He'll get another contract, even if it's not the bills. It's going to say when you're talking about trading him away, would you, if you've traded him away, do you want him to sign back with Buffalo? Or do you like to know that he's locked into this? And the hill's, his utilization is likely capped. I can't imagine they change anything. Or do you want the boat? Do you want him to hit the market and, and maybe land in a perfect spot?

I could see... Or take what you know with Buffalo. I would imagine that if the money comes from Buffalo, then the job security is there with Buffalo in terms of the way they're going to use them and the fact that... Look, it's hard. You wouldn't want your guy leaving a top five offense. That looks to be a top five offense for a bunch of years in a row to go be the guy in Tennessee or something like that. I feel like that was unkind to Tennessee. They might not be that bad this year. Just whoever's the worst. They're rebuilding, man. Any year now. 43% of his fancy points came from touchdowns. That's a lot. So it's just low probability that you're going to get the same thing this year. So I was very, I felt very a sense of urgency to get him traded. And he feels so much younger than he is. You know, you're apologizing for a younger player's older, you know, old age in Kenneth Walker. You asked earlier before the break.

Which player would you want? I checked my dynasty rankings. They are back to back, but I have Kenneth Walker ahead of James Cook. Okay. As you should. So maybe you can trade James Cook for Kenneth Walker plus some stuff. Yeah. I think there'd be a dynamite trade. You could end up going into the offseason and both these guys are out there. I mean, they could be your free agent premier running backs to be signed next off season together. And based on this year, we'll see who gets more money. Well, speaking of premier running backs, I have... a combo platter of tradeaway candidates. The running back five in Dynasty Startup, which is obviously very high. And the wide receiver five in Dynasty Startups. It is a pair of Eagles, Saquan Barkley and A.J. Brown. What a weird guy. He doesn't like Sequin? These players are awesome. They will both be top 10 at their position this year. And so someone's going to pay a lot. You're only getting them from

you know, my roster, if you pay up for it, you're going to give me a young stud and a one. And then you can go have an awesome season, you hope, or maybe two. But the end of the road is coming for these guys. And, you know, this is a trick. We've talked about it a lot. We've done it a lot in our leagues. When you have these top tier players, these, you know, premier league winning assets, but they're getting towards the end of their NFL life cycle. You have to get out a year early. Seguan's 28.2 years old. There was a great study we did a couple years ago, and it saw that the number one age of the biggest decline, meaning a 30% decline in PPR per game production. Whoa, hey. Yeah, a lot of peas in there. Happens at age 28. That's how old he is. Also, since 2020, 10 running backs have seen 330 plus.

touches in a regular season. Sequin had 378 plus the playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl. Every single one of them saw a decrease of at least 45 touches the following year, and only two played a full season. So like, Sequin's a little bit riskier than it seems, and right now he's being valued as the fifth most valuable running backs and startups. And AJ Brown... Because he's brutal to... Oh, yeah. It's brutal to deal with, man. A.J. Brown? is going to be playing at 28 years old this year. He's been a dynasty stud since entering the league, but I would rather get out a year too early than too late. And the decline in wide receiver when they hit that certain mark, and I'm not even talking about production, I'm talking about fantasy value. Look at the dynasty wide receiver 80P over some of the years of some of the greats. Julio Jones went from one year being valued as the wide receiver 12 when he was 30 to wide receiver 5.

30 the next year. A.J. Green went when he was 29 from being valued in Dynasty as the wider receiver 17 to the wide receiver 41. I mean, these are massive drops. DeAndre Hopkins at 29 went from being the wide receiver 10, the next year in dynasty startups, wide receiver 40. You just, even Tyreek who is still going, you know, last year he was the wide receiver 8. Now he's the wide receiver 33. People stopped wanting to buy them. People stop. They change into an old man, even when they're productive. And so you're not going to get value other than what they produce. You know, if you run Larry Fitzgerald until he retires, great. You got the most out of that. But eventually you can't trade them away. AJ Brown and Saquan, these are players where right now you're not getting out. You're getting a haul. You are getting paid premium prices. You're going to have a lot of value.

I promise over the next three years, what you receive if you do good work and go and grab a young stud, a young stud wide receiver plus a one, that can happen, a young rookie incoming running back plus, you know, a future pick. You're going to end up on the plus side of that as you move forward in a dynasty league. I think that talk there, Jason, of just understanding the market. Because it's like Mike Evans. Mike Evans has been awesome for fantasy football. Nobody wanted him this off season. For the last three years. Like when I, I don't even remember when I traded him, it was forever ago. But even at that point when Mike Evans is still putting up huge years, people don't, the market doesn't care. The market, that player is now far more valuable to your actual roster than it is in terms of trading away. So if I told you Sagan was the RB7 the next two years, does it change your view?

I well yeah I mean what's gonna happen to him when he hits 30 if he's the running back seven and then the running back seven is gonna be what happened to Derek Henry where you can't trade Derek Henry I mean you even two years three years I feel like four years ago we couldn't get hardly anything for Derek Henry on our roster so you've got to make the determination do I want to ride this player into the sunset into retirement just get all of their fantasy points which is a viable option rebuild elsewhere through the draft, hopefully you find some people, or do you want to maximize and get better, you know, quicker? No, it makes sense. My up? You're up. All right, my tradeaway, speaking of knowing. Kenneth Walker. Knowing when did you. Which one should you do? That would be amazing. If you did them both. Speaking of getting out while a player still has some value. I don't know the name. It's Joseph Mixer. Yeah, you could have guessed this. Oh my gosh. He has a running back who will be.

Tated by Mike Wright. Yes. He hasn't been my favorite, but he's going to be 29 this year. We've already run through a lot of the age cliff metrics. And I took a gigantic L at the beginning of last season because Joe looked awesome. Like he looked sprightly. And then now the end of the year was. It was not great. Granted, he had the ankle injury, so it's harder to know the efficiency of how just he looked like he had juice. His snap counts were way down. His snap and his efficiency. So if you're talking like just metrics about the running back, so 46 qualified running backs, I just mentioned that for Kenneth Walker. So Joe Mixing of 46, 39th of percent of carries where he was stuffed at the line.

38th and forced miss tackle rate, 41st and success rate on zone runs. Like the guy, and Joe Mixer will probably be fine for fantasy again this year. You know what he is, though? What's that? Dog. He's a dog. Yeah, maybe. He's a dog. Maybe. But his, his, like, the reason why I really didn't like it when he went to Houston is because he had, in Cincinnati, he was getting by on volume. Volume. Yeah, and volume alone. Like, We saw some. And he will this year, and then it will be over. That is exactly what's going to happen. When you're at this point of your career, like you have outliers like Derek Henry. Derek Henry is getting volume, but Derek Henry is still awesome. Joe Mixon is inefficient and just getting all of the touches. And that value, that it's unstable. That could disappear and that could crater at any moment that the coaching staff just says, we've had enough.

We can't keep dealing with a guy running at 3.5 yards per carry or whatever. We've got to try somebody else out. So that's where I'm saying. I'm getting out of Joe Mixen. He's hit the classic 1,800 carry cliff where when it's just this number that pops up a lot when you have aging running backs, if they've hit that threshold, that time generally wins against those players and then it's just done. But Joe Mixing, I think, still. he still has some value because he's a running back, a starting running back who will be good this year. What do you think you can get for him? That's where my word would do. I don't, I think there might be a desperate team that will give you a future one, especially not that the draft just happened. They're like, whatever, you can swipe my credit card for next year's first. I don't care. Give me Joe Mixing. But more realistically, you're probably trying to trade him for just to get a little bit younger. Bet you can get Travis E.T.N.

I bet you could. I bet you're good. Travis ETN's. There was another category. There was another category for the show. We didn't put it in, but Jason was going to have it. It was a wish he'd never traded for. And it was going to be Travis ETN. Yeah. That's, uh, whoops. I've just flipped by the way. I've gone from like a. I like Travis ETN. It's way more fun. Join me. So much more fun. Being on the ATN hate side is it's fun. It's entertaining. Literally, you just as as as a manager of Travis ETN, you just have to have a vigil. It's the only, it's literally the only. You're getting a trade right now. I'm going to be Aaron Rogers for Travis. I would never. But, so anyway, Joe Mixing is is a guy where I am concerned. I,

Again, I think that he can just volume his way into being a good fantasy running back this year. But he will be on, he'll be on watch of if anyone on that team can show anything that Joe Mixon might lose a bunch of work. Yeah, I mean, he is, he feels like a one-year rental right now for a team that is competing. He also might be a player. I'm going to tell you this, and this is something I'd love to get both of your opinion on. It was indeed Aaron Rogers. Did you accept the trade? I did offer you Aaron Rogers. Hall of Famer. Can you say that about Travis ETN? I can't. I rejected my trade. Air Rogers is a good bench player. He's a locker room presence. Oh, yeah. Oh, he's just done so well over his last few seasons leading teams to great draft picks. Here's the question I have for both of you when you're thinking about rebuilding. And this is just coming straight from the heart. But I've made some trades in the last week to head towards a rebuild.

But there have been some players in some discussions where I realized it's the middle of the year that this is going to be a better trade. And I wonder if players like Joe Mixing that don't seem sexy in the offseason in a dynasty league suddenly seem a little bit more attractive. Two weeks in when they're dominating the first two weeks. Or at the trade deadline when they're at the RB7 and somebody is on the cut. They have an injury. You know, there's a reason why some free agents right now aren't signed with teams. And that's because they're waiting for opportunities to develop. And I think in fantasy, that happens too. You're going to have injuries in the first six weeks of the year. And suddenly a team that was a contender that loses a main running back. Joe Mixon looks really good. Yes. In that moment. Yeah. It is a very good point knowing when to time the market of like people always ask, when trading my draft picks. Well, you can you can see the rise in value right before your trade deadline. And then there is a.

drastic decrease in value. And then as you approach the real NFL draft, all of a sudden, your firsts start getting a little bit more valuable. So yes, timing those things out does affect when you should do it. But it's Dynasty Week right now, so I have to tell you to trade them right now. Yeah, and there are more trade targets in the Dynasty Pass. Mike's special section of the Dynasty Pass there. You can get it as part of the UDK Plus at Ultimate DraftKit.com. June 1st is when it's released. Right now is the pre-order price. Ultimate DraftKit.com, get the UDK Plus or become an Ultimate Footclan supporter to get the UDK Plus for free as part of that membership. You can check that all out at Ultimate DraftKit.com. That is going to do it for today's episode of the show on Thursday. Dynasty Week continues. We have rookie sleepers, Dynasty FAQ, Mailbag, and more. Do not miss a minute of it.

The fifth annual dynasty week. Halfway, halfway done. Oh, no. You sure you don't want Aaron Rogers? I'm sure. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.