Buy or Sell + TNF Preview, Business Decisions - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/6

And this year, you've got one better than the other. I mean, it's clear Debo is the better option. So it's definitely interesting. Would you make this trade based on history versus what's happened in four little weeks? And I think, I mean, you know where I am. So I want to hear where you are. I'm fine with the trade. I mean, one thing that's interesting about these two players is that they're both extremely consistent when they play football.

Over the last, you know, we have a consistency grade on our website where we look at the last 17 game sample size for players. Both players are at 70%. 70% of the time, that's an A. Which is great for wide receivers. To give you an example, like Tyler Lockett is at 29.4%, giving you a usable benchmark. Over his last 17. Over the last 17 games. Debo Samuel is at 69.5% and Calvin Ridley is at like 70%. Both players, when you play them,

can be counted on. If you want to kind of cash in and avoid injury concerns with EBO, you can do that. He's healthy right now. It's not just the health concerns. It's also the offensive concerns of when I get it. He had the huge, whatever, 70-yard touchdown on a completely broken coverage on a touchdown pass from Trey Lane. I would do the trade. You'd rather have. I'd rather have Ridley.

Okay, that's where I was going. They both have 42 targets. It's crazy how similar they are on the consistency metric, and they both have 42 targets this year. Why not go with Ridley? You know he's going to come into every game as the primary wide receiver target. Debo may have a game where Kittles the target or the running games the target, you know, or the game plan for Shanahan. So even though I'm a, I think Debo's here to stay, but I think Ridley is a great, great.

kind of cash in. It is really, really funny and kind of almost childish to think about the math in this way. But it's true. If both players have, say, 10 great games over the course of the season, which I think is reasonable for, wide receivers don't just do it for 17 weeks. And one player already has, you know, three of them and one player has zero.

How many games are left? I know it's, that's not how it works necessarily, but it, to some degree, it really, really is because we have enough data going back, showing at how, you know, consistent and inconsistent wide receivers are, especially the studs at the top. And you know, you know that Calvin Ridley's going to end this season with a bunch of good games and he hasn't had one yet. So they're all coming. You're casting in. Now, now, let me, I get the logic behind that.

Although I, every game is its own thing. That's a very he's due argument. Now, we've spent too much time maybe focusing on, oh, Trey Lance, the playoff schedule. That's the same playoff schedule Debo Samuel has. He gets to play Atlanta, Tennessee, and Houston. The last three games of the year for your fantasy team. He also, as you said, I mean, they're two top three weeks for Debo. I don't think Calvin Ridley's broken the top 15 this year.

No, 17 is this high. In half PPR. Yeah, I mean, the trade is fair. I think we all lean the history of Ridley over the history of Debo. Yep. All right. Website question from Nate in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Najee Harris or Nick Chubb, or Nick Chubb, in a full PPR league. The answer is Najee Harris. The full PPR. He's not nearly the running back Nick Chub is. No. No, the full PPR is.

You can't ignore what Big Ben is doing here with Naji. It's first read a lot of the time for Naji, and he just checks it down. Ben's like, nope, I'm not going to go through these progressions here. Noggi's open. Let's just give him the ball. Naji has five more targets than any running back in football through four weeks. I don't know if you guys knew that. It makes sense with the 19 target game. Nick Chubb is actually, well, an incredible player, a difficult.

or frustrating players sometimes in fantasy because you do have Kareem Hunt. And so you have a player that can come in. Like nobody's coming in for Najee, right? Nobody of notes. No, no. I mean, they'll bring a Benny Snell in for a play. And then they'll be like, oh no, that's Benny Snell out there. Get Najee back. I mean, Najee Harris has surpassed.

45 yards rushing one time this year, and he has three top 12 weeks. It can get better. That's the point I was going to go into of part of why I loved Najee for fantasy so much and felt safe in him as a second round pick was he could be inefficient. He can be terrible. He can suck and be the running back dead. I projected him to be a...

a strong professional running back, as the Steelers did when they took him in the first round. But say something goes awry, and he's just bad and he's inefficient. It doesn't matter for fantasy football because there will be so much work for him that he can dominate. And that's where we've kind of been through four weeks. He can improve as a professional football player, and the Steelers might figure some stuff out. They probably won't.

But it's in the range of outcomes here, and it could be even better for, for Najee. It's funny in the, in the itty-bitty sample size. I know where you're going. Of the first four weeks is he was bad when they won the game.

He was already 43. Right, because they won and they didn't need to throw the ball to him and check down, and they weren't coming back from behind. And the last three weeks where he's gotten absurd targets, they lost all three games. They were down, and they needed to just keep trying to move the ball and they can't, so they check it down to Najee. So it's almost like you want him in. He's the inverse Josh Jacobs. Exactly. You want him in losses. You want him against an offense that can score on the Steelers. And you got.

Drew, Drew Lock this week. Well, maybe TBD on, but Denver is the matchup. So let's hope for Teddy Bridgewater's to be active for Najee. It's kind of crazy. I mean, 17 points against Las Vegas, 10 points against Cincinnati, 17 against Green Bay. That's your Pittsburgh Steelers offense. It's not great. Okay. Well, let's move forward. Evan, how do you make trades in a league where people don't respond to your offers or messages? Can't.

Yeah. The truth is you... This is a common question. Yeah, if people don't respond and don't even communicate, you can't make trade. So if you want to change that, step one is more communication outside of trades. Just talk more, chat more, have more, you know, trash talk and just fun interaction. And the more that people communicate...

the more opportunity there is to kind of side chat a trade, that would be step one. And step two would be next year, go to footclanleagues.com and get in a league with a bunch of footclan members who know how to play fantasy football the right way. Like think of the business world, like where real, real business deals go down. Sometimes it happens in the boardroom. I get that. But.

Very often it's a social situation. You're out on the golf course. You're at the bar. You're just hanging. You're just hanging out with people and socializing. And that's where all of a sudden, real big business transactions take place. Like fantasy football is not that much different than that. You need to build up this culture of friendship, which the communication hub is the starting point, but it's difficult. And we are, we're not magicians who if people don't respond to you.

they just don't respond to you yeah i mean you're you're never going to have success dragging 11 other people along in a league so if you don't have if you literally have no one that has any interest in moving the league forward yeah you're probably in a dead end um and you probably need a new league and that's the truth thursday night breakdown all right the rams at three and one take on the two and two seahawks in seattle the draft king sportsbook line rams minus two and a half on the road

over under a delightful 54.5. And look, the Seattle defense through four games, they're giving it up. I mean, 24th against quarterbacks, 30th against running backs, 22nd against wide receivers, your core fantasy positions, your starting Stafford Henderson Cup. I guess you have a decision between maybe Van Jefferson and Robert Woods. I've been digging in a little bit more.

into the Van Jefferson Robert Woods conundrum. We had someone reach out from that part of the country. And, you know, he puts some fear in me that maybe Van Jefferson is being built into a more solidified role. And Robert Woods is being built into more of a blocking role than we know. But then Rams coach Sean McVeigh comes out and says, we need to give them more opportunities.

It's just what he wants you to think. If you're staring down Jefferson or Woods this week, I think that that is a fair decision. And I'm sorry. That would be such a brutal choice. I picked up Van Jefferson this morning. I saw. So I want to see if this materializes into something more long term. But do you go with Woods or Jefferson if you have that decision, Jason?

I would still go with Woods. The targets over the last two weeks have been the same for both, but over the course of the season, they're obviously heavier in Robert Woods' favor. I think with McVeigh coming out wanting to get him more involved, he can do whatever he wants. And Woods is an actual good NFL-wide receiver. He's also playing, you know, just about every snap. 96% of snaps last week. You're right, Andy. He's a very good run blocker, and so maybe they utilize him.

in that way. Because this is a divisional matchup, you know, you could see it be this defensive running slug fest, but also there's two great offenses here. You know, if Russell Wilson gets it cooking, Robert Woods could end up with a great game. So I would lean Robert Woods between that combo. Yeah, I mean, I don't see, I don't think Vegas or.

The numbers so far this year bear out any sort of slug fest happening on Thursday night football. The Rams are not what they were last year on defense. They're giving up 32 fantasy points to fantasy wide receivers. That's bottom half. They're bottom half in every category, which is not something you're used to see. To be fair, they had to play the Cardinals. That's true. But I think Russ will get it cooking with Matt Calf and Lockett in this game. The running game could be stifled if Chris Carson isn't fully available.

And so I'm expecting this game to deliver on the over-under. Yes, please. Yeah, there's not very many fantasy questions to be at. I mean, if Chris Carson sits, are you going to, and he's on your team, do you play Alex Collins, or do you play somehow you had Chuba Hubbard against Philadelphia? I'm probably, if I knew Collins had it all by himself, I'm probably willing to go there. Yeah, that's where I lean as well.

Fournette versus the Miami Dolphins. Fournette. Fournette's a great play this week. I agree. Okay. What about Somaget if he was alone versus Collins if he's alone? The Panthers play the Steelers, I believe. So I would go Collins. What is the Panthers? Steelers game have to do with anything. Sorry. The Bengals, the Bengals, where Samaja is, I believe, play the Steelers. So I would go Collins. I would as well. And then just like this isn't. That is not accurate.

Perfect. Goodness gracious. Green Bay. That's a much better matchup. So do you want to change your advice entirely, or do you want me to move on? I would still stick with Alex Collins, so move on. All right. So Darrell Henderson is a player that I think you should try and trade high for. Oh, okay. I think Darrell Henderson is low-key dominating.

I agree, the snaps. Like the snaps are there, the opportunities are there with the fact that he already missed a game, the manager that has Henderson may not see the true value, or what I believe the true value is for Darrell Henderson. So, yeah, we all want to, you know, buy low, sell high, but I think this is an opportunity where you should just.

go pay. I thought you were saying you would trade high. Oh, no, no. And I disagree. But this is, I mean, you, you called it on DJ Moore, right? Like, DJ Moore is playing well, trade high for him before he continued to dominate. This is a phenomenal offense. And he has been, you know, the center of the running game when he's active. And.