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Main show · August 9, 2019

RB Rankings Part 2 + Preseason Takeaways & BIG NEWS

RSSAug 9, 2019 · transcript indexed
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RB Rankings Part 2 + Preseason Takeaways & BIG NEWS

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41:18 ↗

over talent at the running back position. I would take Damien Williams there too, but I don't think 212 is too high for carry-on in a vacuum. He could be a good pick there if the other guys that, you know, if Damian Williams is gone and you're at 2-12, I don't think that's too high personally. Despite what it may appear like on the podcast, Jason and I do have, you know, some very...

41:42 ↗

controlled discussions about carry-on from time to time. And we were talking, you know, on Slack the other day, and I said, one, I hope he's great because I know people love you, Jason, and I know they believe in you. And number two, I just hope he gets the opportunity around the goal line. But Garrett Blunt had 17 goal line carries, 17 within the 10. Carry on had two last year. If he gets the opportunity inside the red zone, that's, I mean, we already saw Joe Mixen do that last year.

42:10 ↗

Joe Mixon on a team that wasn't that good had nine touchdowns. Carry on with nine touchdowns. He's going to beat where I have him ranked 100% and validate everything you believe about him. And you'll be complete as a human being. I agree. He is great. Devonta Freeman at 14. Josh Jacobs at 15. I will tell you this. My confidence in Devante Freeman has grown a little bit from a couple weeks ago. It should have. And part of that had to do with listening to head coach Dan Quinn.

42:41 ↗

Talk about his running back room. Because if you want to say Andy Reid doesn't know the name of his players, Dan Quinn is, he knows the name of him, but he doesn't know which one's the two. Is it Edo Smith? Is it Brian Hill? Different players are going to have opportunities. And he talks about, he knows Freeman's at the top of the mountain, and then it's kind of like 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D. So Freeman will have the opportunity to get the workload that we've seen in the past. Will he be hurt? I don't know.

43:09 ↗

This was a player who was number one in 2015, number six in 2016. Injuries have been a huge problem. Love the offense. You talk about believing in an offense. Freeman will have every opportunity. I'm rising a little bit. Yeah. I mean, I'm rising. Do you remember when DeVant Freeman, his rookie year was terrible? I mean, he was really, really, really bad. And then he truly level. Mike really remembers. And then he really leveled up.

43:34 ↗

So Edo Smith last year was really bad as a rookie. And you go, okay, can he do that Devonthe Freeman jump? And according to one preseason first quarter that we shouldn't overreact to, the answer is absolutely not. I mean, nowhere. And the way that his coach has been talking about him. I mean, I'm just.

43:51 ↗

Ido Smith is not a worry to me to Devanta Freeman. I would not handcuff Freeman with Ido anymore. I wouldn't handcuff him with anybody because you don't know who it's going to be. But my point is if the other guys behind Freeman, if no one can step up and actually be a relevant quality player, then...

44:12 ↗

then the only worry with Freeman is injury and injury alone. I think he's going to have the role. He's going to have the goal line work. He's going to have the past catching work. He's on a good offense. It's just will he be injured? And I know, you know, our own Matthew Betts, who does a lot of injury analysis, does have worries, does not expect him to be able to go the full 16 without a reaggravation. So there is risk there. But so you talked about Josh Jacobs. We've got them, you know, back to back.

44:41 ↗

Who are you drafting out of those two if you're on the clock? And let's say you've got one running back already, and this is your RB2. Yeah, I have Jacobs ranked higher than Devonta Freeman. I do. And I realize that we haven't seen Jacobs on the field before. And there are red flags with his production in college, the number of carries that he's received over, you know, in his senior season. Not his production, but his opportunity where we haven't seen a full workload from Josh Jacobs, which he will be asked to do this year. It seems that way. But I hope. But I do. Sure.

45:10 ↗

I do have Jacobs ranks slightly higher than Freeman. It's just preferential. It's probably a little bit of the fantasy football bias that comes with the unknown. We've seen Devonta Freeman at his peak. We've seen him slide down the mountain. I've never seen Josh Jacobs at his peak. And if it's back to back, I'm looking for the upside of Josh Jacobs there where I'm not sure that the upside for Freeman exists anymore. But it's a, you know.

45:36 ↗

It's close. To me, if you're specifically talking about those two guys, there's talent and opportunity for both of them. So you can't tiebreak with that. So I'm tiebreaking with the offense. And I'm going to take the Atlanta Falcons over the Raiders. For perspective on rookie running backs from 2012 to 2018, 11 running backs were drafted in the first round. And that's what Josh Jacobs was. Of those 11, seven finished their rookie season as a top 10 fantasy back.

46:05 ↗

that's part of what I'm banking on with Jacobs is the draft capital matters so much at the running yes it does and seven of those 11 guys have ended up in that top 10 we're in a PPR world guys we're living in a world where that pass catching back matters Jacobs can do that as Ken Freeman as Ken Freeman absolutely and that's been the dip lately for at least in 2017 it was the targets dirt cutter

46:33 ↗

who is back now to be the OC for Atlanta. Freeman was getting targets. Part of it, Mount Ryan is willing to drive the ball down field a little bit more than Derek Carr has been willing to do. Derek Carr is in love with the line of scrimmage. Oh, yeah. I mean, he has a picture on the wall. He's never met a short pass. He could say no to. So we'll get to follow Josh Jacobs in Hard Knocks as well. I do think there's a world where he could finish in the top 10.

47:02 ↗

But that means that, you know, he's going to need to get the workload appropriate for an RB1 situation. I look at it a little bit like when Christian McCaffrey came into the NFL where people knew the passing game work was going to be there but wasn't sure about how much rushing work McCaffrey would get in year one. So you're going to see the passing game involvement almost guaranteed for Josh Jacobs. I hope he gets all the running work that I expect. That's funny because I think the way I look at it is.

47:32 ↗

The rushing work will be there for Josh Jacobs. Well, that's combined. Number one overall. Just say, like, Richard Carr's best friend in the short pass of the game, not projecting that, but just saying, I know the early down work will be there for Jacobs. I really want to see him on Hard Knocks. So HBO, if you could go ahead and show him this week. Yeah. Oh, I saw him. He was on last week. He was sitting in the back of that big meeting room.

48:01 ↗

I saw him in there. He was paying attention. Yeah, that reminds me of Hard Knocks with the Falcons and Devonta Freeman's first year and how much people rooted for him to have success, except for Mike. Aaron Jones and Leonard Fournett at 16 and 17 in the rankings. Oh, gosh, I'm really. These are two guys I don't know what to do with. And that's the category we're in, right? These are the tough ones yesterday. Shake one's a good player.

48:30 ↗

Aaron Jones is at 14 in my ranking 17 and 17 and Jason and Mike's. Right now being drafted is the RB 15. His current average draft positions in the middle of the third round. Last year, we saw everything we wanted to see from Aaron Jones in spurts. I guess the last thing we would have wanted to see was him on the field more consistently. It was a tough ride for Aaron Jones to get a featured role.

48:59 ↗

He started off the year with the suspension. Then he was in the doghouse for McCarthy. McCarthy insisted that Jamal Williams play in front of Aaron Jones. Eventually sanity prevailed. And Jones became the number one in the depth chart. Was absolutely sensational for a stretch of weeks before going down to injury. Speaking of injury, he is not practicing.

49:25 ↗

with a hamstring injury. So I want to get your guys as temperature. We don't like soft tissue injuries in training camp, especially prolonged ones. And Aaron Jones so far, it has been a prolonged absence from practice. Jason, how do you, are you, Mr. Risk, adverse? Sure. And if you've been listening to the show, you know that Jason loves Aaron Jones. He was in consideration for...

49:53 ↗

A my guy, correct? That is 100% correct. So that's how much you love. And if I'm being completely honest, the biggest reason that I decided to not make him a my guy, you know, I had a lot of guys I liked, so it wasn't like I disliked Aaron Jones as just other people won on the tiebreaker was this hamstring issue. I don't want this season, I want to remember from last year to not buy the injury dip.

50:19 ↗

I believe that Aaron Jones was going to get a lot more expensive when he's getting hype in camp and getting that preseason work. And lo and behold, he hasn't been able to because of the hamstring issue. And so he's staying low in drafts. He's staying where, look, talent-wise, on the footcast yesterday, we were- Unbelievable. He's a great talent. What second running back? What running back 13 through 24 could actually finish the season as the number one running back? This was my answer, Aaron Jones. If you replace him.

50:48 ↗

If Alvin Camara and Aaron Jones switch spots? Yeah. Where are you projecting Aaron Jones? Aaron Jones would be one of those top four got to have players. I mean, look, from weeks 8 through 14 last year when he actually did get the work, he was the running back five just behind Alvin Camara. And that was on the Green Bay Packers that didn't run the ball much. They literally ran the ball, the fewest in their franchise history. And, you know, they ran the ball the least in the NFL.

51:18 ↗

I worry about the lingering concern, and I don't want to draft a guy who is. The lingering hamstring or something? Yes, who is currently injured. But the talent is there. If you're a risky player, if you're a swing for the fence and shoot for the moon, Aaron Jones is your pick because if he gets the work, he's going to be great. We've never seen him on the field, be inefficient. He's on what projects to be a good offense. So, you know.

51:44 ↗

Yeah, the questions posed, do you believe Lafleur will involve Aaron Jones more in the passing game? My true answer to that is I don't believe that he, I would probably lean more on, I don't know slash, no, I don't believe that. So I don't believe that necessarily. Aaron Jones had 35 targets last year. I lean on the yes side. More over under 35. Targets more? Okay. Yeah, but.

52:08 ↗

I don't know if that's saying enough, you know what I mean. And that was in, you know, he didn't play a full season. So 35 on a, on a full 16 game season sounds small. But early in OTAs before the hamstring issue, a lot of, I apologize. Yeah, no, I was right. 26 receptions. A lot of, a lot of beat reporters were talking not about what the coach said wanting to get him involved. They were talking about how involved he was in their practices in the.

52:33 ↗

getting a screen or getting a wheel route or going downfield and catch a pass. So I do believe that he is more involved in the passing game. I love what you brought up now on the footcast. He is one of the players that could be in the realm of possibilities to be number one. If you're on a great offense and you get the work and you do what he does efficiency-wise, just look at what Alvin Kamara can do with the football on his hands. Just give him the football. You're listening? And to be Deion Lewis last year,

53:03 ↗

He was targeted pretty heavily. He got the work. He just didn't do much with it. I think there just as well. And Jamal Williams, the counterpart, the two of the one-two punch, also has a hamstring injury right now. So Leonard Fernette, he was one of the players drafted very highly last year that destroyed your team, your soul.

53:25 ↗

Your salt, week one, seven points, didn't play for two weeks. Week four, four points, didn't play for five weeks. Missed the game for fun in week 13. So, he had a couple, I mean, he had three straight monstrous weeks from weeks 10 through 12. Leonard Fournett. And then he winked at you and went away. Leonard Fournett is so difficult because if he's, if he is on the field, he will put up, he, he will put up numbers even if he,

53:55 ↗

doesn't really want to. And I know we had some bad games last year from him, but he will get such a massive volume. And last year he was actually started to be involved in the passing game as well. He is the featured back for this team, unless somehow they're going to go to Alfred Blue a little bit more than we expect, which would be very bizarre.

54:21 ↗

But you can't guarantee that Leonard Furnett is going to be on the field. He's had numerous injuries. He's had numerous off-field incidents with his own coaching staff to the point of they were able to strike his guaranteed money out of his contract because they were so upset with his actions off of the field. He's not guaranteed to be the guy. Let's turn to some numbers here. Rushing attempts per game.

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