Regress or Impress + Get Off My Lawn!

You're keeping away from people. So send the people to you. Brilliant. And you know what that's like. That's like in your face. I'm not leaving even when the wife asks you to leave. Like I about lost it. I had one. We had one. Okay. It was a person trying to. Did you hide? Did you dive behind the couch? Oh, no. I didn't hide. I pulled up the old camera and started talking to him. It was like, uh.

And I get people got to make a living, but I don't like that, man. I don't, I don't recognize you. I don't even, I'm not expecting anything. What's you doing here, man? No, there were security salesmen both times. It's like, you should go away. I don't want to talk to you. Oh, man. Yeah, I almost lost it. I almost gotten a fight with six feet apart. You know what I mean? Yeah. All right, regress or impress, Derek Henry.

Derek Henry, 303 carries, 1,540 yards, 16 touchdowns. He is a tank. He is a beast. He finishes the running back three in 15 games last year. And before I let you guys run away with Derek Henry, I'll just say that I am an impress. He is the... He's who I have projected as the carry leader for 2020. You know, we get through our projections and we're able to see kind of...

the league-wide projected rushing and receiving leaders. I've got Derek Henry with more carries than anybody else, more yards than anybody else, and more touchdowns than everybody else. So I cannot say regress if that's how my projection ended up. And so, you know, when you give a player 20-plus attempts, they're going to find, and they're as good as Derek Crenny, they find a way.

You can look bad for 17 of them. You look good for one, and you've made your week. So Derek Henry isn't impressed for me. Mike? Go ahead. Okay, I'll jump in the... I am so torn on what to do with Derek Henry because I don't want to bet against the man. Like, he's a very, very good running back. He's old school, and I prefer new school running backs, but he's very, very good at what he does.

But if you want to talk history, okay, since 2000, 1776. Oh, sorry, go ahead. Since 2000, we have 109 instances of a running back with 300 or more carries. The following year, only 26 times did a player see those carries go up. 70 times over, so 65% of the time when a running back has had 300 or more carries the next season.

65% of the time they lose 20 or more carries the following season. Just through, I mean, this isn't saying that Derek Henry's bad. It's circumstances change from year to year. Well, it's the same argument, just to just, I'll let you continue, but it's the same argument we make with Michael Thomas breaking records. You know, you. Yes. It doesn't matter. Marvin Harrison, Michael Thomas, you don't do the same thing every single year. Yeah. So like I said, I don't, I don't want to bet against the man.

Derek Henry, I still have him projected very high. Let's pull it up. I have Derek Henry as my RB6 right now. So even though I'm talking about the odds are against him, I'm still betting on him. But like one thing goes wrong for Derek Henry and then you see that a one-dimensional player, things collapse very quickly because he doesn't have the pass catching to rely on. Like the rookie that they drafted Evans, he's a good player.

They took a hit to their offensive line. I know they spent a first-round pick on a guy to replace Conklin, but you can't just automatically assume a rookie who's never taken a snap is going to play as well as Conklin did last year. So there are definitely concerns for me, even though I still have them up in my, as a running back six, as a must draft early round running back.

Yeah, I've got him at the exact same spot. Running back six. He impresses the heck out of me just in general. I am pretty much a guy that in fantasy, I don't, my rule is I don't want to draft the running back who doesn't catch the ball.

But that rule has been amended where I don't want to draft a running back that doesn't catch the ball unless his name is Derek Henry. Because he's, you know, the reason you don't want that is you don't want a game script that is a guy could just not show up. But it doesn't matter if they're winning or losing. They're giving the ball to Derek Henry every single game. I like you, Andy, I've got him currently projected for the most carries, the most yards and most rushing touchdowns. Obviously, if he was.

to ever get involved in the passing game, he would just be unbelievable. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they've got Dionne Lewis's replacement in Darrington Evans. So, you know, to me, I think Derek Henry is not going to do what he did once Ryan Tanna Hill took over. He was on pace for 2,000 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. But 1900 touchdowns, actually.

Right, 1900 touchdowns, just ground, rushing touchdowns. Yes. But, you know, you look at when the office wasn't good, you look at him with Marcus Marietta at the beginning of last year. He was still on pace for, you know, double-digit touchdowns, 1100 rushing yards. So I think it's going to be in the middle. And I'm absolutely in on Derek Henry to impress this year. One of the things that.

is interesting about Henry is, I mean, we had years with players for, you know, LaGarrett Blunt comes to mind where it's all goal line opportunity and you can still have a relevant season just by being a beast inside the 10. Henry already offers that capability, but part of it is confidence in the Tennessee defense in terms of that game script that Mike's talking about. You're 100% right. If the game goes to where they got to put it in the arm of Danahill, it's not going to be Derek Henry in the field.

But Tennessee's got a top 10 defense to me. And that should mean that more often than not, he's going to have the opportunity, whether that offensive line is able to hold up the way it did last year. Some of the variables you brought up, those are important things. You can't just take last year's numbers and project everything forward and not recognize the fact that regression happens. But it sounds like we all have them, you know, inside that top 10.

They're deep in the running right now for Jadavion Clowny. So if they were to add him to that good defense, that's great for Derek Henry. And like I'm saying of betting against Henry, I don't want to do that. But also betting on Henry, like you're saying, Andy, I'm betting on the defense. I'm betting on the offensive line. I am betting on Ryan Tannehill all to be good, where like that sucks to have to do that for a running back where I can just say, oh,

The player is good, and he catches the ball, so he's going to be on the field no matter what. It feels a little bit like the Marchion years. Sure. It feels a little bit like the Marshall. And you did not bet against Marshawn Lynch. That's a fool's errand to bet against Marsha. Well, it's a good transition because we're going to talk regress or impress with one of last year's my guys.

that chose to torture me with his butterfingers. And that is Chris Carson, who ended the year RB11. There's nothing to be ashamed of. He had a great year. Yeah, and you know what? It was something where every time he touched the football, you were impressed with Chris Carson. You know, 47 targets, 37 receptions, almost 300 carries on the ground, looked great, struggle with fumbles. He's a regress for me.

And that is not to say that Chris Carson can't have some solid fantasy value, but I have them down at RB17, I believe. Finished last year at RB11. I would be absolutely shocked if Seattle doesn't add another back to this running back room. And so with Carson, Penny, probably a shorter leash with the fumble variable this year if they have another back in that room.

I am simply not confident that you could count on Carson as an RB1 for fantasy. Yeah, you bring up the running back room, and I think that is that's. And there are Marshawn rumors, by the way. Right. I know. Marshawn's, his agent has been in contact with the Seahawks about coming back again. The pessimism, which is very rare coming from Pete Carroll over Rashad Penny, you know, everybody, everybody who's ever been injured is totally fine.

if you're Pete Carroll and they look great and they're ready to go. And now he's talking about starting him on the pup to begin the season. You know, it was a late injury. It wasn't just a normal ACL tear for Rashad Penny. So when I look at that room, I mean, they drafted a fourth round DJ Dallas. Okay. Travis Homer is nothing. You know, it's like.

I feel like Chris Carson, I've got him right now as a running back one. You have him as a last man standing situation. I've got him as a, he's got to have 300 carries because they don't have any other choice. And so, but I would adjust my rank significantly if. If.

This is the running back room they go into the season with. No doubt. Exactly. So, you know, if Marshawn is signed, if Carlos Hyde or some other back comes in, then that's telling you. Name somebody slower than those. Right. That, you know, and I would, I would also append to this. Chris Carson is a, I feel like is a very big injury risk. He didn't miss, he missed one game last year.

But he has, in his history, been injured. He's injured right now, right? He's not, he's on pace. He's coming off of a fractured hip. Yeah, I mean, he's, he hasn't missed the games, but he's still been injured. And the way he runs is like, injure me, please. So, you know, odds say that he will regress, um, just because of, uh,

you know, injury and, you know, the potential of bringing in someone else. But as it stands right now, I've still got him as an RB1, getting a lot of volume for a really good offense. I will say we were, I was joking about betting against Marshawn Lynch. If he signed to Seattle, I'm not very concerned. Like, do you guys, you think Marshawn still has it? No, it doesn't matter, though.

It doesn't matter if he has it because he's got the eyeballs of Pete Carroll and Pete Carroll will put a player out there. He doesn't care if he is at his best if he fits the offense and what they want to do. I think that Marshaun will represent a huge goal line hit to Chris Carson and then establish the play action for Russell. Yeah, and Chris Carson is up in my RB1 because he's a 300 carry back right now. Marshaun Lynch comes in.

It's just one of those things where it's like, okay, now that there's an option to not give Chris Carson 300 carries. So, yeah. And that 300 translated to running back 11 last year. Right. Yeah, I am unfortunately, I have to hedge here because I, Chris Carson is completely a waiting game. If you're playing, like, best ball. Oh, yeah. Yeah. So, like, if I had to make the decision right now, yeah, what's your bet? I would probably go in on him.

I don't know where his ADP is in best ball right now. I would probably go in on Chris Carson, but this is a situation that needs to materialize over the off season. If Marshawn was the addition, you're less concerned than maybe we are? Correct. Okay. Let's talk about Kenny G. Oh, man. Toes.

All right. Kenny G. wide receiver six from last year. Smooth. smoother than this episode has been. Kenny G. overcame a quarterback carousel in Detroit. I, you know, so impressed with what he represents to an offense, 65 for 11, 90, and 11, which was tops in the NFL in terms of touchdowns by a receiver, 116 targets.

Big play guy, but still can be a volume player, goal line player because of the size. Regress or impressed with Kenny G. I'm going to stick with the impressed number because I have him at five right now on my 2020 projections. And he finished at six. He should have Stafford back. I think it's more of the same for Kenny G. I do as well. And I hate to say it because so far I've been impressed by all of these players. So it's impress or impressed. Do you want me to pick somebody else that you can be?