Regress or Impress + Get Off My Lawn!

They're not turning over this call. I don't care that if the defender mugged him. They're not overturning it. It was always mind-blowing the few times that they actually did overturned. You're like, wait, what? Why did this one change and the other ones haven't? So thank goodness it's gone. We don't need it. And it got in the heads, man. You could see the coaches like turning over every single call that was like questionable. You could see it in their face go, mm-mm, I want to throw this flag.

I want to do it. It was impossible for the NFL to implement that rule because if you start to give those calls, it just snowballs. Yes. And it makes the NFL unwatchable. So, yeah, they made the right call. And that's the one thing the NFL does do pretty well, which is they're willing to dip their toes in some of these rule changes. Some of them have been great. Toes out. Toes out. Oh, gosh. I don't know. Got that all the way on. We're moving on. It was toes out, Jay, just for the record. We don't need to go toes deep.

That don't I'm guessing me. All right, regress or impress featuring Shania. Apparently. I forgot about that drop. Let's start with Dak Preska. Last year was, he finished the season as the QB2. That makes this a very difficult line for regress or impress. He's going to regress because Pat Mahomes was not out for 16 games, but.

If you've got him as my quarterback three, does that, is that really regressing? No, that would be impressing. That would be sustaining, I would say. If he ended up as the quarterback three in 2020, which is where I have him as well, Jason, I think that that makes him an impress. Do you have them at that high, Mike? I have Dak Prescott very high as well, but the question for me is not will he regress. It's just how far back does he fall? Because I don't have him at number two.

But like in 2018, he was the QB12. Does he drop to that type of a level? Or does he maintain that he is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks that you can have on your roster? I took a look. And since the year 2000, the average regression for quarterbacks who hit that 4,900 yard mark, it's almost 600 yards of regression the following year. Since what year? Since the year 2000.

And really the only quarterbacks who have actually hit a back-to-back year of 4,900, that 5,000 range, which that's an insane yardage total to start the conversation with. But Drew Brees and Matt Stafford since the year 2000, those are really the only two guys that have been able to put together back-to-back seasons of that volume of passing yards. And like if you take them, those two guys.

Out of that equation I was talking about for average regression, the average regression plummets 700 yards. So guys, if you're throwing 4900 yards, just imagine chopping 700 yards right off of there. So it's a difficult situation to figure out what DAC will be because his situation has actually improved. You spend a first-round pick on CD-LAM, one of the best wide receivers or one of the best prospects in a very long time.

To me, I know it's kind of a joke now on the show, but going from Jason Winton to Blake Jarwin isn't upgrade. That's like, you can't argue this version of Jason Witten. I agree. Yes. Yeah, that's what like Jason Witten, the past two years he's played, 6.4 yards per target. Meanwhile, Blake Jarwin's up in the high eights. He's just a better, he's a better pass catching option at this time compared to Jason Witten. So, Dax Prescott, Dack Prescott's situation.

points towards him impressing, but historically you just can't really bet on him duplicating 4,900 yards or more. Well, the nice thing for deck is I've got him dropping in yardage, but he also, you say, he only had three rushing touchdowns last year. Yeah, it's true. But, you know, he averaged six rushing touchdowns a year, you know, in the first three seasons. So I think that there's, you know, I'm looking at my stat line that I've got him.

down for, and even though he's down in yardage, I have him literally dropping two fantasy points total on the season. That's how my stat line worked out. Yeah, I think it's an interesting situation for him because of what you illustrated, Mike. If you look at your options as a fantasy owner and where you're drafting quarterbacks, I think one important consideration that Dak has brought about by his...

play last year, and then what the team has done around him is the fact that he is a player, that can be the number one quarterback. That probably was not something we would have conceded to DAC heading into last year. Competitive in that top five potential, but I don't know if we ever looked at him. And now you look at him in what he did last year. You take...

CD Lamb, and you take the contract, another year of Gallup, like you said, the Jarwin situation, Zeke's pass catching, Mike McCarthy, and then the second year of Kellynne Moore. There's a lot of reasons there to say, when I draft DAC, I could be drafting the top quarterback on the season if things go the right way. And the defense might help him out as well. You had those quotes a little bit ago leaking out that McCarthy thinks that his offense is the way that he's going to have to win games.

He's going to have to win in shootouts. Yeah. No, that makes sense. Anything else to add there, Jason? No. All right. Let's talk about Josh Allen. Oh, excellent. I think that Josh Allen is a pretty interesting debate. Last year, he finishes the quarterback six. The quarterback six. A very steady year for Josh Allen. We've talked about it before.

leading into last year, he had come off these kind of monstrous games, heavy rushing yardage, entered 2019 with a lot of the same type of hype that I'm kind of hearing about him heading into 2020. But he had more of a steady year. I mean, you look at those first five weeks. He only had one of them in the top 12. He really didn't consistently give you a top 10 performance on the season. He had two games inside.

I'm sorry, three games inside the top 10 over 17 weeks. So it's interesting when you look at the addition of Stefan Diggs is obviously huge. It just comes down to what this team is willing to do with its offense. The division seems like it's there for the taking for Buffalo and for Josh Allen. Last year, QB6, is it a regress or is it an impress?

I don't know where you guys are going to land. I am a big believer in Josh Allen this season. I think he's for fantasy, he is an excellent option, the same way that Cam Newton was an excellent option, a truly gigantic mobile running quarterback who's going to put up enough yardage and rushing touchdowns to where if the passing could just come along a little bit and be average, you're going to have a real fantasy star. And he has had,

you know, guys like Zay Jones and Robert Foster and then finally gets upgraded to John Browns and Cole Beasley's. Like John Browns and Cole Beasleys are not NFL wide receiver ones for their teams. They're just not. Now you get a legit option. While John Brown and Cole Beasley are there in the roles that they should be in, and you give them Stefan Diggs, I, you know, I, that has to improve his, his passing game. I mean, the yards have to. How much?

So I have his, this might sound outlandish to you, but it's, it's not just the addition of Stefan Diggs. It's, it's a lot of things changing and coming into his third year. I have him increasing his yardage almost 700 yards from what he did last year. All right. So I've got him throwing 3,700 yards. I don't think that is a crazy number. And that is a monstrous change from the year prior. So what are your,

What's the passing attempt volume? His volume has gone up by how much in your projections. Yeah, I have him throwing for 512 passing attempts versus 461 the year prior. Yeah, that's a really big lift. That still would put him, you know, certainly in the bottom half of passing attempts. But I think that, you know, when you go out and you trade a bunch of options and you bring in a receiver like Stefan Diggs, it shows that you're wanting to.

hope you're hoping you can open the offense up a little bit. Sure. I mean, that's what I see their indication. I think they're going to be able to. Yeah, QB6, I guess I'm going to go with regress. And I love Josh Allen. I love the bills. I love their potential to win games. But I still think at the end of the day with a defense that they have. And with Josh Allen's, he showed towards the end of last year that he can make some mistakes with the football. Wait, you're just seeing that?

Well, when push came to shove at the end of the year, he made some mistakes. And sometimes, you know, McDermott came out and even talked about it, you know, trying to do too much. Loves the fight of the player, but trying to do too much. So I still think this team takes a manage-the-offense viewpoint with Josh Allen. So I like the ceiling of other players like a Deshaun Watson, like a Kyler Murray, even Drew Brees. I like their ceiling better than I do, Josh Allen's.

Although I consider Alan to be one of the more steady week-to-week options at the quarterback position because of the rushing yardage. He didn't run as often last year or for as many yards per attempt at all than he did in 2018. It went down pretty substantial. Yeah, it was down substantially, but it's still over 100 rushes, still 500 plus yards on the ground, and that's significant for the quarterback position. Yeah, and the touchdowns are huge, and they're going to lean on him there. It's just a matter of...

Do I think I'm going to get more of the same of Josh Allen from last year? I do. That's kind of where I'm at. Mike, are you a regress or an impress? I am a regress from QB6, but I have my QB8 right now. I'm not as bullish on the improvement of the passing game as Jason is. I have him going up, but it's more of like a 400-yard, like 3-4 touchdown improvement instead of where Jason sees him really taking the next step.

The rushing yards I was talking about, he went from 52 yards, 52 rushing yards a game as a rookie. That dropped down to 32. Now, 32 rushing yards a game from your quarterback, that's very nice. But will that sustain at 32 with the addition of Zach Moss and Devin Singletary actually growing as a player? Like the efficiency inside the five,

by Frank Gore and Devin Singletary was comically, comically bad last year, like worst in the league situation. So do they get a little bit better? And does that take away from Josh Allen getting nine rushing touchdowns? Because if Josh Allen drops from nine rushing touchdowns down to six and the passing yardage doesn't grow like Jason's projecting, then you might be a little bit disappointed in Josh Allen if you're going to draft him, which...

I'm expecting his ADP to already be high, and now it gets kind of that early season schedule bump as well. So those are my concerns for Alan. Before we move to our next player, I want to thank today's sponsor. Simply Safe with all the uncertainty in the world, feeling safe at home has never been more important, which is why we want to talk to you about Simply Safe Home Security. They are longtime friends of the show, our studio.

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to make sure that they know our show sent you from Simply Safe and all of us here wishing you safety and good health. Can I go old man for a minute? Sure. I mean, I kind of always do, so I don't know I'm asking permission. Be yourself. It's kind of a stranger. But you brought up. Can I be myself just real quick, guys? Guys, you brought up a few things. You also at one point pronounced money, moni, which is new for me. But, uh,

You know, you're not about that money? I am now. Money, money, money, money. But here's what I'm going to bring up. You talked about the pushy salespeople. Guys, I've been, I've been door to door. My wife has been pitched by door to door salesmen two times in the past week. No. And I about lost my mind because of all the times that I don't need a person coming to my door.