Playoff Primer + Strength of Schedule League Winners - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/17

Do you guys agree that Hawkinson would be somebody that maybe you try to flip to a different option? I do agree, yeah. I think that if you can, I mean, it's hard to upgrade from Hawkinson, especially after a goose. And really, there's only, what, three guys you can full confidence upgrade to. Kelsey Kittle, Waller, Andrews. Yeah, so four guys that you know for sure. Waller still in that. I don't know.

But I would agree that T.J. Hawkinson going into your fantasy playoffs against Arizona is bad. On the flip side, if you look at the strength of schedule, another bad matchup is Kyle Pitts. And I do think matchups matter for Pitts, big time. I think they do. However, there's a difference when it comes to tight end defenses where sometimes teams don't score.

against them with the tight end because they don't really need to. You can run on the team. They're an easy defense. And sometimes, like Arizona, it's just a really good defense. Well, the first two bad matchups are San Francisco and Detroit. I don't think those guys have someone that they could just roll onto Kyle Pitts and lock them down. You know, they don't have the Marshawn Latimore or the digs to just put on them. So I'm not too afraid about Kyle Pitts to begin the playoffs. Buffalo and the championship week is a problem. Well, and I do want to highlight, you talk about rookies. We've been talking about the wide receivers.

The last five games that Kyle Pitts has played. He is pacing for 85 receptions and 1417 yards receiving. How do they not, if Matt Ryan throws for 225 a game, we'll be real conservative with Matt Ryan numbers. Where is it going? Yeah, if Calvin Ridley doesn't come back. I mean, Pitts has only scored one time this year. He's the tight in five. It's madness. So if he scores, for goodness sakes, there's a chance for him. Gisicki.

Tough week 16 and 17. Dawson Knox, I don't know what to think about Dawson Knox right now, but I hope he gets back on track this week. I would bail. Defenses, maybe the most important thing that you've got to worry about because you can do it in advance. Matchups are more predictable after 10 weeks in this department. So let's talk about some of our favorites because, you know, Buffalo gets the privilege. If you have Buffalo.

You're not going to drop them. You probably, I mean, can you acquire them? Can you, because people don't maybe value the defense is enough. But would you maybe trade for the Buffalo Bills defense? Yeah, you can acquire them if you do it in a deal where it's like you're trading similar wide receivers and then you're swapping your defenses in the same deal. Right. Somebody wants a receiver. So that's the way I would look. Like if you're doing the, like a Pittman, Deonte, and then you throw both of your defenses in there to sneak them in. Yeah, I would love that because the, the Buffalo Bills are.

They're the one that stands out as both good schedule but also awesome defense. Like the Jacksonville Jaguars might have the best strength of schedule. I'm not sure that I could. Like I was going to say my combo favorite here of teams that are probably on the wire, the San Francisco 49ers, Week 15, Falcons, Championship Week Houston Texans, and Jacksonville, in the middle of that, the semis get the New York Jets.

Look who Jacksonville has become the last two weeks. And that's their defense has really stepped up. I get it. They got gouged by Jonathan Taylor in the first quarter. But then they locked it down. They locked down the Buffalo Bills. They are interesting to me. I think they are good enough to stream against the New York Jets. Think about the psychological battle you'd wage.

by starting the Jacksonville Jaguars defense against your opponent and how confident they would be going into that game. The Eagles, you could probably do worse. I mean, they've been playing some better football and they have Washington twice with Taylor Heineke, who tends to- Turn it over. To wing it, yeah, and then the Giants in between with Daniel Jones, who tends to turn it over. Turn it over. I would throw out.

the Miami Dolphins as well as someone to target for the beginning. There's a couple of teams, the Saints and the Buccaneers. They have awesome, like if you compare the dolphins with the Buccaneers and the Saints, the Dolphins play the Jets in Week 15, and then the Buccaneers and the Saints have great 1617 schedules. I'm going to throw one defense out that you probably want to avoid counting on in the playoffs, which is Baltimore. They play Green Bay, Cincinnati.

on the road and then the ramps. So you have three formidable offenses that they're facing, and they've been kind of hitting mess this year. So I would stay away from them. And then the Panthers who have been able to ride Buffalo, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, they're also not a defense you can rely on in the playoffs. Agreed. All right. Let's do some Thursday night preview. Thursday night breakdown. Oh, man, another brand new drop right there, huh? Yeah. You ever heard that one? I've ever heard that before. Wow.

I just, I whipped that thing up this morning. Yeah. All right. The New England Patriots at six and four take on the four and five Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. The drafting sportsbook line here, New England minus seven. The over under is 47 and a half. Take a deep breath. Try to look beyond one week because last week the Patriots demolished the Browns and the Falcons just got destroyed by the Cowboys. So.

In a one-week sample, I think we'd be, draft kings would have the line at New England minus 36. So realistically here, at home, Atlanta, they, what do they got to do here to give you fantasy value? On paper it looks bad, but, you know, seven points is not a huge line.

Yeah. I'm trying. I'm trying to find some way to see an upset happening here. I am surprised that the Draft King Sportsbook line gives the Atlanta Falcons essentially 20 points. Yeah. Who's scoring? I can't imagine Atlanta getting 20 points. Now, they are at home in a dome. Maybe Matt Ryan has a good game. I think where you start with this game is Kyle Pitts. He's someone that I just, I think that.

Bill Belichick and a great New England defense without Calvin Ridley will be able to take Pitts out of this game. That would be where I would focus. You don't have Cordero Patterson or you might not have Cordero Patterson. So, man, being able to just focus on the rookie, take him out of the game, you know, aside from two big blowup games in week five and week seven, he's averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game in his other seven games. This just isn't a matchup.

for him. But it's not going to be actionable, right? I mean, if you have Kyle Pitts, you're playing Kyle Pitts. No, I would play Dan Arnold. I would play Dan Arnold. I think Pitts will be fine. Yeah, I mean, maybe. He's certainly talented. Talent can overcome. Seven targets in this game? Not going to be enough? Seven, eight targets? I could see him getting eight targets and catching two of them with double coverage on every play. Hmm. Okay. How did Hooper do last week against New England?

Thought he had a... He had a... He had a touchdown. Just a touchdown. And it was one of those... It was a goal line. He was four for 25 with a score. But it was that... It was a goal line touchdown. And it was super weird because Deerunis carried the entire offense down to the goal line. And then they're like, oh, we're going to throw it four times. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. Because obviously Russell Gage and Zekees and Tajay Sharp and Wayne Galman do not...

represent the biggest threat to New England. New England has given up 27.3 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, which is something that you need to, when you look at Kyle Pitts, you've got to count both of those situations because he lines up out wide 30 to 40% of the time. If Cordero's active, period. Let's just ask the question. If he's active for the game, is he in your lineup? Yeah, he's in my lineup. I think that he'll be involved in the passing game enough to where he will not

Goose my team and yeah, so I would start him. The real question to me is, let's say he's out. Wayne Galman or Mike Davis. Goalman. Either. I go Galman too. Man, I want to go Galman. I would go Davis, but I'm, Galman at least has upside because he has juice left. And maybe if one of these guys is going to have a great game, it's going to be Galman. I would expect that Mike Davis has a better, albeit bad game. I get it.

I get it. That's exactly my thought process. What you summed up of like if somebody's going to do something that I'm actually happy with, it has to be the guy with juice. But yeah, it's not, I mean, I'd try not to play either one. Yeah, that'd be nice. That's a better plan. I'd like to play the other run, the running backs on the other side, the Patriots running. We got to go flowchart here again. Yeah, it's the Falcons. Damien Harris, any news today, Brooksie? Can you vet that for us? Because they might be walking around on the practice field soon. Anything new? Just a moment. Okay.

One moment. Was that a robot? I want some hold music here. Oh, that was office space. Just a moment. Hold, please. Damien Harris, right back into the top of the flow chart if he's active, Mike. Yeah. Remandre startable, even if Harris is active.

Jason, you're shaking your head. I'm shaking my head. We're getting a little alert here. Lamar Jackson was sent home with an illness. Won't practice today. It is not COVID-related. But I'm shaking my head because I just don't think there's ever been, is he have the worst immune system in football. He's had a lot of illness. I just messes. I'm like, get this guy some vitamins. Seriously, vitamin C, man. And mid-game poop breaks. Maybe this is all stomachs. Are these all stomach things? Yeah. So you got Crohn's? He's great at football, but could have Crohn's. He's got some.

You know, yeah, Lamar, it's like, figured out, man, it's okay. It's okay to admit you got, you get sick all the time. Yeah. Where were we? We were talking to remandre. Okay. If, if Damien Harris, we're doing the flow chart, if Harris is in, do you have the stomach to play Ramandre Stevenson? I think you, I think you should. I think you could flex him. That's where I've gotten to as well. It's really a question about.

Are they going to put, would it be Harrison Brandon Bolden? And I just don't, I'm starting to think it won't be. I'm starting to think it'll be Harrison Ramadre. That's what it should be. He has the skill set to do it. You saw Brandon Bolden last week, only on the field, 27% of snaps. I think that this is a game where the Patriots are going to be winning. And if that does happen, then it's even worse for the past catching specialist in Brandon Bolden. So.

I think I'm fine starting Damien Harris and Ramandre Stevenson. And I would love to start Romandre Stevenson if Damien Harris doesn't play. Yeah, the Falcons are 29th in the league against fantasy running backs. I'm only, like if both of these guys are in, I'm only 6040 that Harris has the better game. That's where I'm at. The unpredictable Bill Belichick, not afraid to play a player that's on fire, playing better.

This is going to be a JJ Taylor game. Oh, gosh. What was nice to see is that Brandon Bolden, I think, only had six touches last week. So in a game that coming off of the concussion, Remander hadn't practiced. And they put them out there and they barely let anybody else touch the ball. So that could give you a pat on the butt for Damien Harris coming right back into that role. Somebody who's had a lot of volume in the offense.

Mike, are you more skittish on the Ramandre side? I am. I am. I can see you're kind of shaking over there, a little sweaty. A little bit. But I've also got, you guys want to hear a real funny stat? Oh, boy. And it's like, what do you do with this? Since week three, the wide receiver 15 is Kendrick Bourne. Kendrick Bourne in that time period, averaging...

11.4 fantasy points per game in a half point scoring format. That is point four behind Adam Thielen. That is point four behind Terry and Mike Williams. That is more points per game than Devante Smith. Like, he is a part-time player who has managed to hit a home run in four of those games. So, like, do you, are you willing to take the shot on Kendrick Bourne? No. I'm not.

I don't think so. You know, you look at, look at the last, you know, a couple weeks, his snap percentages. That's what it's, it's insanity. 53%, 30%, 54. What do you play him or Jacobi? Because Jacobi's on the field more, but, and obviously, Jacobi Myers has scored in 100% of his most recent games. That is true, but. And it's a touchdown monster. His targets have been going down where, yeah, he's the guy who's on the field, but he.

before this touchdown game, what's the touchdown game in the touchdown game in garbage time with a backup quarterback? Until then, the target's going down because they're running the football and they're winning games and their defense is great. Exactly what's happening. And if you project this game, this is a game that they project that they're going to be able to run the ball a lot and not throw it and win the game. So I think it's a fair question then. Do you go with the home run? Do you just go for the big play then? Yeah, that's fair. Maybe you're right. I think you're right. I think you go with another team. Yeah.